节前最后一个交易日，对二甲苯期货主力合约低位震荡，最低下探至7240.0元。截止收盘，对二甲苯主 力合约报7260.0元，跌幅0.74%。 对二甲苯期货主力小幅下跌0.74%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 国投安信期货 PX短期有调整预期 西南期货 短期PX或震荡调整 机构 核心观点 瑞达期货 短期PX价格预计跟随原料价格波动 国投安信期货：PX短期有调整预期 强预期推动PX价格上行，与下游需求脱节，上周五开始减仓回落，展开震荡。短期PX有装置重启导致 的供应增长及下游需求回落的拖累。PTA装置重启和减产并存，预期维持低负荷下去库状态，加工差略 有修复，波动主要来自原料PX。整体看，PX短期有调整预期；中线强预期不变，但需要下游需求配 合，注意节奏；PTA主要驱动在原料。 西南期货：短期PX或震荡调整 供需方面，PX负荷维持在88.2%附近，福佳大化140万吨装置重启，浙石化26年1月CDU和重整有检修计 划，预计降负10%左右。现货流通性偏紧且库存低位下PX价格仍有支撑。成本端方面，因原油供需失 衡以及地缘风险消退等因素，原油震荡调整。综上，短期PXN价差和短流程利润持续修复，PX开工持 稳，但成 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment outlooks and trend analyses for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each commodity, and gives corresponding trading suggestions and risk warnings [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining. Gold prices are affected by factors such as inflation and macro - news. The trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment. The price shows a downward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Platinum**: Capital outflows lead to a retracement. The price drops significantly, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][29]. - **Palladium**: It follows platinum's retracement. The price also shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Capital liquidation causes price corrections. The price experiences a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The price fluctuates within a certain range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory limits price declines. The price shows a slight decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][19]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again. The price drops, and the trend strength is 1 [2][22]. - **Aluminum**: It follows copper. The price movement is related to copper, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Alumina**: It is in a sideways oscillation. The price remains relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It shows a slight decline. The price drops slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals restrict elasticity, but attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related (implied in some products)**: Affects the prices of downstream products such as fuel oil and chemicals. For example, the price of fuel oil may be affected by crude oil price fluctuations [126]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session fluctuations increase, and it may maintain strength in the short term. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a strong - side oscillation, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the outer market is temporarily stable. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][126]. - **PTA**: It is in a high - level oscillation market. The supply increases, and the demand is relatively stable. It is recommended to pay attention to position management before the holiday, and the trend strength is 0 [2][64][69]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The port inventory accumulates, and the trend is weak. The trend strength is 0 [2][64][70]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][113]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand tightens, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling rebound. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][114]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak - side oscillation. The market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the rebound space is limited. The trend strength is 0 [2][122]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related (Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil)**: - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans closed down, and Dalian soybean meal may follow the adjustment. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][159][160]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean drive is not significant, and it is mainly operated within a range. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][154]. - **Soybean**: It is in an oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][161]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][163]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound arrangement. The price fluctuates within a certain range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][167]. - **Cotton**: The area expectation is undetermined, and the futures price corrects. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][172]. - **Eggs**: They are in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][178]. - **Hogs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and they are strong in the short term. The price shows an upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][181]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to oil mill acquisitions. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][187]. - **Palm Oil**: It has a short - term rhythm rebound, but the height is limited. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][154]. Others - **Iron Ore**: It is in a high - level repetition. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][45]. - **Rebar**: Macroeconomic support and industrial suppression coexist, and steel prices maintain a range - bound oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][47]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, with macroeconomic support and industrial suppression, and steel prices maintain a range - bound oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][47]. - **Silicon Iron**: Market information disrupts, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The price shows large fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][51]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market information disrupts, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The price shows large fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][51]. - **Coke**: The fourth - round price cut starts, and it oscillates repeatedly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Year - end production cuts disrupt, and it oscillates repeatedly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][56]. - **Log**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][60]. - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][107]. - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][83]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a weak - side oscillation. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][89]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][96]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates with support. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][99]. - **Urea**: It runs in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][103]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][143]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][143]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][146]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a short - term oscillation mainly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][151]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin - opening guidance. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][128].

文字早评 2025/12/29 星期一 宏观金融类 【行情资讯】 1、央行报告：着力健全有利于"长钱长投"的制度政策环境，显著提高各类中长期资金实际投资 A 股 的规模和比例； 2、商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准细化规则发布，对于承担国家任务、参与国家工程项目的 商业火箭企业，予以优先支持； 3、中国首批 L3 级自动驾驶汽车开启规模化上路运行； 4、国际金银续创新高。COMEX 黄金期货、现货黄金涨超 1%，本周累涨约 4%；COMEX 白银期货、现货白 银均涨超 10%，本周累涨约 18%。现货钯金收涨超 14%，本周累涨超 12%；现货铂金收涨超 10%，本周累 涨超 24%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.01%/-0.33%/-0.40%/-1.42%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.03%/-0.58%/-0.95%/-3.41%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.14%/-0.99%/-1.75%/-4.88%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.09%/0.06%/0.20%/-0.07%。 【策略观点】 年底部分资金兑现收益，市场面临一定的不确定性。但从 ...

广期所通知称，自2025年12月30日结算时起，工业硅期货合约涨跌停板幅度及交易保证金标准维持不 变；多晶硅期货合约涨跌停板幅度维持不变，投机交易保证金标准、套期保值交易保证金标准调整为 15%；碳酸锂期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为10%，投机交易保证金标准调整为12%，套期保值交易保证 金标准调整为11%；铂、钯期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为13%，投机交易保证金标准、套期保值交易保 证金标准调整为15%。2026年1月5日恢复交易后，自各品种期货持仓量最大的合约未出现涨跌停板单边 无连续报价的第一个交易日结算时起，工业硅期货合约涨跌停板幅度及交易保证金标准维持不变；多晶 硅、铂及钯期货合约涨跌停板幅度、投机交易保证金标准及套期保值交易保证金标准维持假期期间标准 不变；碳酸锂期货合约涨跌停板幅度、投机交易保证金标准及套期保值交易保证金标准恢复至调整前水 平。(齐宣) 本报讯12月26日，上期所、郑商所、广期所分别发布通知，公布2026年元旦假期风控措施。 郑商所通知称，自2025年12月30日结算时起，棉花、菜油、菜粕、PTA、甲醇、短纤、对二甲苯、瓶片 期货合约的交易保证金标准为9%，涨跌停板幅度为8%，其中菜粕 ...

机构 核心观点 五矿期货 PX关注逢低做多的机会 新湖期货 PX偏强运行 东海期货 PX短期将继续保持偏强震荡格局 12月22日盘中，对二甲苯期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至7248.0元。截止发稿，对二甲苯 主力合约报7180.0元，涨幅2.87%。 对二甲苯期货主力涨近3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 五矿期货：PX关注逢低做多的机会 目前PX负荷维持高位，下游PTA检修较多，整体负荷中枢较低，PTA投产较多叠加下游逐渐转淡季预期 下压制PTA加工费，而PTA低开工导致PX库存难以持续去化，预期十二月份PX小幅累库。目前估值中 性水平，芳烃数据回落和偏弱的现实没有使得PXN进一步压缩，反而开始计价中期的良好格局预期，关 注逢低做多的机会。 短期PX基本面变化不大。明年三季度前，在新产能落地之前，PX难以明显累库，供需偏紧格局持续， 市场对PX预期乐观，PX偏强运行。 东海期货：PX短期将继续保持偏强震荡格局 PX明年仅有一套投产，导致市场预期继续偏紧，提前盘面计价发酵，配合PTA大幅增仓共振上行。PX 价格大幅上行至866美金，对石脑油价差也回升至305美金水平。另外短期原油风险溢价支 ...

国投安信期货表示，PX新产能计划在明年下半年，上半年有检修导致的供应下滑，预期PX中线偏强。 12月19日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，对二甲苯期货主力合约开盘报6856.0元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，对二甲苯主力最高触及7044.0元，下方探低6852.0元，涨幅达2.82%。 目前来看，对二甲苯期货行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于对二甲苯后市行情将如何运行， 相关机构观点汇总如下： 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，特朗普下令封锁委内瑞拉油轮，国际原油上涨，影响聚酯走势。供应方 面，本周PX产量为74.82万吨，环比持平。国内PX周均产能利用率89.21%，环比持平。需求方面，PTA 周均产能利用率73.81%，较上周持平。国内PTA产量为141.11万吨，较上周持平。周内开工率持平，目 前处在中等位置，短期PTA装置降负。短期PX价格预计跟随原油价格波动，主力合约上方关注7100附 近压力，下方关注6800附近支撑。 西南期货指出，短期PXN价差有所修复，短流程利润持续改善，PX开工小幅下滑，成本端原油短期有 支撑但空间或有限。短期PX或震荡调整，考虑谨慎对待上方空间，区间参 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [2][5] - Silver: Accelerating the upward trend and reaching a new high [2][5] - Copper: Tight supply expectations lead to price increases [2][10] - Zinc: Supply cuts result in a volatile and bullish trend [2][13] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][16] - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2][20] - Aluminum: Strong performance [2][24] - Alumina: Consolidating at the bottom [2][24] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24] - Platinum: Volatile upward trend [2][27] - Palladium: Sideways consolidation [2][28] - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, with low - level volatility [2][31] - Stainless steel: High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limits the downside [2][31] - Lithium carbonate: Ore prices are rising steadily, with range - bound fluctuations [2][36] - Industrial silicon: Volatile and bearish [2][39] - Polysilicon: The exchange restricts new positions, sentiment cools, and the market may face a significant decline [2][39] - Iron ore: Limited downstream demand and over - valued [2][42] - Rebar: Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [2][46] - Hot - rolled coil: Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [2][47] - Ferrosilicon: Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [2][51] - Silicomanganese: Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [2][51] - Coke: Wide - range volatility [2][55] - Coking coal: Wide - range volatility [2][56] - Logs: Low - level volatility [2][58] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Gold: The closing price of SHFE gold 2512 was 959.64, up 1.05%; the night - session closing price was 964.72, up 0.66%. The trend strength is 1. Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [5] - Silver: The closing price of SHFE silver 2512 was 13282, up 4.46%; the night - session closing price was 13766.00, up 5.08%. The trend strength is 1. It is accelerating the upward trend and reaching a new high [5] Copper - The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 89,280, up 2.12%; the night - session closing price was 89380, up 0.11%. The trend strength is 1. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026 [10][12] Zinc - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22590, up 0.74%. The trend strength is 1. Supply cuts lead to a volatile and bullish trend [13] Lead - The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17075, down 0.09%. The trend strength is 0. Reduced inventory supports prices [16] Tin - The closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 306,580, up 0.50%; the night - session closing price was 306,890, down 0.27%. The trend strength is 0. Supply is disrupted again [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract was 21865. The trend strength is 1. Strong performance [24] - Alumina: The closing price of SHFE alumina main contract was 2677. The trend strength is 0. Consolidating at the bottom [24] - Cast aluminum alloy: The closing price of the main contract was 21055. The trend strength is 1. Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [24] Platinum and Palladium - Platinum: The trend strength is 1. Volatile upward trend [27][29] - Palladium: The trend strength is 0. Sideways consolidation [28][29] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract was 117,850. The trend strength is 0. Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, with low - level volatility [31] - Stainless steel: The closing price of the main contract was 12,445. The trend strength is 0. High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limits the downside [31] Lithium Carbonate - The closing price of the 2601 contract was 95,120. The trend strength is 0. Ore prices are rising steadily, with range - bound fluctuations [36] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The closing price of Si2601 was 9,145. The trend strength is - 1. Volatile and bearish [39] - Polysilicon: The closing price of PS2601 was 57,705. The trend strength is - 2. The exchange restricts new positions, sentiment cools, and the market may face a significant decline [39] Iron Ore - The closing price of the 12601 contract was 801.0, up 0.88%. The trend strength is 0. Limited downstream demand and over - valued [43] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,134, up 1.16%. The trend strength is 0. Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [47] - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of HC2601 was 3,327, up 1.03%. The trend strength is 0. Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [47] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon: The closing price of the 2603 contract was 5466. The trend strength is 0. Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [51] - Silicomanganese: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 5724. The trend strength is 0. Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [51] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The closing price of J2601 was 1619.5, up 2.9%. The trend strength is 0. Wide - range volatility [56] - Coking coal: The closing price of JM2601 was 1093, up 2.4%. The trend strength is 0. Wide - range volatility [56] Logs - Logs: Low - level volatility [58]

Market Overview - As of November 26, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with peanuts rising nearly 4% and polysilicon up nearly 3%, while the shipping index for Europe dropped nearly 8% [3][20] - The A-share market exhibited divergent trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15% and the ChiNext Index up 2.14%, reflecting a rotation of funds among high-dividend defensive sectors and oversold tech stocks [7] Commodity Predictions - The outlook for various commodities is categorized as follows: bullish for corn, crude oil, and glass; neutral for a wide range of products including aluminum and lithium; and bearish for soybean meal and palm oil [4] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales in September increased by only 0.2%, indicating consumer fatigue amid rising prices due to tariffs, although economists expect robust economic growth in Q3 [5] - The U.S. government reported a fiscal deficit of $284 billion in October, influenced by a recent government shutdown and record tariff revenues [6] Specific Commodity Insights - Peanuts are expected to maintain stable prices with limited room for significant upward or downward adjustments, focusing on supply dynamics from Henan province [10][11] - The apple market is characterized by low inventory levels, providing price support, but faces pressure from seasonal fruit supply [11] - The pig market shows a slight rebound, but supply remains ample, leading to limited price recovery potential [12] - Coking coal and coke futures experienced declines, with supply remaining marginally loose but limited by production safety issues [13] - Silver futures rose by 1.79%, influenced by U.S. PPI data indicating inflationary pressures [14] - Lithium carbonate futures increased by 1.45%, but demand is expected to weaken seasonally [14] - Polysilicon futures rose by 2.93%, with production expected to stabilize [15] - Methanol futures saw a rise of 1.82%, supported by overseas production cuts [16] - Glass futures increased by 1.87%, driven by production cuts amid profit compression [17] - Fuel oil futures fell by 1.2%, affected by fluctuating demand and geopolitical factors [18] - Asphalt futures declined by 1.02%, reflecting weak demand due to seasonal construction slowdowns [19] - The European shipping index saw a significant drop of 7.62%, with mixed trends in shipping rates impacting market sentiment [20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Indexes are expected to stabilize in the short - term after recent declines. In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and technology growth remains the market's main line, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market in the fourth quarter may see an improved supply - demand pattern, but it will generally remain volatile, with attention paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - Most metals and non - metals in the non - ferrous sector are expected to show different trends of shock, strength, or weakness. For example, copper and aluminum prices may strengthen, while zinc and lead prices may be weak in the short - term [12][14][16][17]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. - Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom and in a weak state respectively [36][37]. - For energy and chemical products, different strategies are recommended according to different product fundamentals, such as short - term waiting and long - short strategies [55][56][58]. - In the agricultural product sector, different strategies are proposed for different products, such as short - selling hogs and eggs at high prices and waiting for opportunities to close positions [77][79]. Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The call between Chinese and US leaders was positive. The RMB appreciated. Alibaba's Q2 FY2026 revenue increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and its cloud business grew by 34%. A Fed official called for significant rate cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips as policy supports the capital market and technology growth is the main line [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond futures had different changes on Tuesday. An official press conference on consumption policies will be held. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's dovish stance and potential changes in leadership supported precious metals. The inventory of silver on the SHFE increased slightly, but the supply of silver was still tight [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot premium declined. The import loss of domestic copper increased [11]. - **Strategy**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is over 80%. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the downstream start - up rate is strong. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices oscillated and declined. The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and the domestic inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. Aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined slightly. The import of zinc ore decreased significantly in October, and the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The supply of zinc ore is tight due to winter stockpiling, but it is expected to loosen after stockpiling. The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. The supply of lead ingots increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries continued to decline. The domestic and overseas inventories increased [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable at a high level, and the demand in emerging fields provided support. The social inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance in the short - term. Tin prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot price of carbonate lithium increased, and the futures price of LC2605 rose [22]. - **Strategy**: The upstream expects the supply - demand situation to improve in 2026, and the mid - stream has large long - term contracts. There are differences in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina decreased. The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the domestic production capacity is over - supplied [24][26]. - **Strategy**: The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the over - supply pattern of alumina is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. The spot price increased, and the social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The spot market price increased slightly, but the demand in related fields is weak. Stainless steel prices are expected to be volatile [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The inventory decreased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong support, and the supply is affected by policies. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils was high [31]. - **Strategy**: The demand for steel has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The overseas shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [33]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile within a range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices were stable, and the inventory increased slightly. Soda ash prices decreased, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - **Strategy**: The cold - repair expectation of glass production lines in December is strong, and glass prices are expected to be volatile at the bottom. Soda ash is in an over - supply situation and is expected to be weak [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rose slightly, and ferrosilicon prices decreased slightly. The market risk preference weakened, and the price of coking coal decreased [38][39]. - **Strategy**: The market risk preference has weakened, but there are expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is recommended to pay attention to the turning point of market sentiment. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is low [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose significantly. The production of industrial silicon decreased, and the production of polysilicon decreased [42][45]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to short - term fluctuations. Polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile within a wide range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices unexpectedly declined. The export of natural rubber from Thailand increased in October. The tyre - factory start - up rate was weak [48][50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - biased short - term trading strategy with a stop - loss and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and the prices of refined oil products decreased. The inventory of crude oil increased, and the inventory of refined oil products decreased [54]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices decreased slightly. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand changed little. The port inventory decreased [56]. - **Strategy**: The positive factors on the supply side are being realized, and the market is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand improved. The enterprise inventory decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. It is recommended to buy on dips at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene decreased. The supply of styrene was under pressure, and the demand improved [59]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short - term due to the reduction of port inventory [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The enterprise inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The port inventory was stable [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand was stable. The processing fee increased [65]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand may be stable. The processing fee has limited upward space, and PXN has a risk of valuation correction [66]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices decreased slightly. The load of PX was high, and the load of PTA was low. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy**: PX is in a state of slight over - supply, and there is a risk of valuation correction [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices decreased slightly. The supply was stable, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [70]. - **Strategy**: PE prices are expected to be low and volatile. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [72]. - **Strategy**: PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [73][74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices continued to decline. The supply exceeded the demand, and the market demand increased slightly [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was stable, and the demand was in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: The egg market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices were oscillating, and domestic soybean meal prices were stable. The global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed [80][81]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom support, and soybean meal prices are expected to be oscillating [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic oils and fats decreased significantly. The export of Malaysian palm oil was weak, and the production increased [83]. - **Strategy**: The supply of palm oil is large, but the inventory may reverse. It is recommended to view it oscillatingly and turn to a long - biased strategy if production decreases [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic import profit window is open [85][86]. - **Strategy**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price falls [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices continued to rise. The downstream start - up rate was medium - weak, and the global cotton production increased [88]. - **Strategy**: The cotton market has no strong driving force in the short - term, and cotton prices are expected to be oscillating [89].

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]