证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 11 月 26 日 投资要点 分析师：方堃 执业编号：S0300521050001 电话：010-83755575 邮箱：fangkun@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20251126 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数涨跌不一。截止收盘，沪指下跌 0.15%，收 报 3864.18 点；深证成指涨 1.02%，收报 12907.83 点；创业板指涨 2.14%， 收报 3044.69 点；科创 50 指数涨 0.99%，收报 1315.04 点。总体上，全天个 股涨少跌多，Wind 数据显示，全市场仅 1689 只个股上涨，3591 只个股下跌， 168 只个股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 17833 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 288 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨少跌多，通信、综合、电子、商贸零售 等行业涨幅靠前，涨幅分别为 4.64%、1.79%、1.58%、1.11%，国防军工、社 会服务、传媒、石油石化等行业领跌，跌幅分别为 2.25%、0.97%、0.82%、0.80%。 概念板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为光模块(C ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points, and market volume slightly decreased. The banking, home decoration, and leisure sectors led the gains, while electronics, telecommunications, and media internet sectors saw corrections [2][5][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.93%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.82%. The total market turnover was approximately 1.98 trillion yuan [9][15] Market Performance - In terms of sector performance, the banking sector increased by 0.26%, home decoration and leisure by 0.18%, and construction products by 0.13%. Conversely, the electronics sector decreased by 2.93%, telecommunications by 2.40%, and media internet by 2.01% [9][15] - Conceptually, the "Cross-Strait Integration" concept rose by 4.19%, while sectors like storage, HBM, advanced packaging, and optical modules saw significant declines [9] Market Drivers - The market's risk appetite has decreased due to heightened geopolitical uncertainties and hawkish comments from some Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts. This has led to profit-taking in previously high-performing sectors, particularly in technology [9][15] - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, emphasizing that macroeconomic liquidity remains ample and that the market is expected to experience a "slow bull" trend, drawing parallels to previous bull markets in 1999, 2014, and 2019 [9][15] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on technology growth and value sectors that are gradually recovering. Key areas of interest include AI and robotics, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, military industry, and Hong Kong internet stocks [9][15] - For long-term strategies, attention should be given to sectors with improving profitability, such as fiberglass, cement, paper, and fine chemicals, as well as non-bank sectors in a slow bull market [9][15]

- The market experienced a broad decline today, with the CSI 2000 index performing relatively well among scale indices, and the SSE Composite Index performing better among sector indices[2][6] - The banking, real estate, textile and apparel, pharmaceutical, and comprehensive industries performed relatively well, while the electronics, communications, computer, media, and new energy industries performed poorly[2][7] - Market sentiment was relatively high today, with 90 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 9 stocks hitting the daily limit down at the close[2][12] - The financing balance as of November 13, 2025, was 24,882 billion yuan, and the securities lending balance was 184 billion yuan, with the total margin balance accounting for 2.5% of the market's circulating market value[2][17][20] - The ETF with the highest premium on November 13, 2025, was the Internet ETF Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen, with a premium of 0.59%, while the ETF with the highest discount was the Zhejiang Merchants Zhijiang Phoenix ETF, with a discount of 0.73%[3][21] - The median annualized discount rates for the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures over the past year were 0.39%, 3.23%, 10.86%, and 13.33%, respectively[3][26] - The stock with the most institutional research over the past week was Boying Special Welding, which was researched by 79 institutions[4][28] - The top ten stocks with net inflows from institutional seats on the Dragon and Tiger List on November 14, 2025, included Time-Space Technology, Hailu Heavy Industry, Zhongyi Technology, Lianhua Technology, Kangzhi Pharmaceutical, Kangpeng Technology, Worth Buying, Chengda Pharmaceutical, Zhaoyi Innovation, and Minsheng Health[4][33]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.97% to close at 3990.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.93% to 13216.03 points, the Sci-Tech 50 Index decreasing by 2.72% to 1361.23 points, and the ChiNext Index dropping by 2.82% to 3111.51 points [1][10] - Overall, there were 1959 stocks that rose while 3320 stocks fell, with 164 stocks remaining unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 195.81 billion yuan, a decrease of 83.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][10] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, real estate, banking, and pharmaceutical sectors showed positive performance with increases of 0.39%, 0.26%, and 0.17% respectively. Conversely, the electronics, communication, media, non-ferrous metals, and computer sectors faced declines, with decreases of 3.09%, 2.46%, 2.16%, 1.99%, and 1.83% respectively [1][10] Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included Cross-Strait Integration, SPD, Hainan Free Trade Port, Aquaculture, Antibiotics, Vaccines, BC Batteries, Photovoltaic Glass, Minimum Market Value, New Urbanization, Oil and Gas Exploration, Primary Real Estate Developers, Selected Traditional Chinese Medicine, Natural Gas, and Influenza [2][12]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a day of volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points, closing down 0.97% at 3990.49 [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.93% to 13216.03, while the ChiNext Index dropped 2.82% to 3111.51 [1][2] Sector Performance - The computing power and semiconductor sectors led the decline, with storage chips, HBM, CPO, and advanced packaging showing significant losses [2] - The chemical and non-ferrous metal sectors also experienced pullbacks, while the Hainan Free Trade Port and oil and gas sectors performed well [2] Stock Movements - In the storage chip sector, companies such as Tongyou Technology, Baiwei Storage, Jiangbolong, and Purun Co. saw declines exceeding 10% [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.96 trillion, a decrease of 83.9 billion from the previous trading day, with over 3300 stocks declining [4] Capital Flow - Main capital flows showed net inflows into photovoltaic equipment, banking, and real estate sectors, while electronic, power grid equipment, and communication sectors faced net outflows [6] - Specific stocks with net inflows included Yongtai Energy, Xian Dao Intelligent, and Aerospace Development, with inflows of 1.058 billion, 931 million, and 738 million respectively [6] - Conversely, stocks like Industrial Fulian, Zhaoyi Innovation, and Xinyi Sheng experienced significant net outflows of 1.936 billion, 1.720 billion, and 1.548 billion respectively [6] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities anticipates that the A-share index will continue to fluctuate upward until 2026, but with a slower growth rate, leading investors to focus more on fundamental improvements and economic validation [7] - CITIC Jian Investment highlights the significant earnings elasticity and untapped potential of the domestic computing power chain [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a majority of indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% closing at 4000.14 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.36% at 13240.62 points, the Sci-Tech 50 down 0.58% at 1379.45 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.39% at 3122.03 points [1][10] - Overall, there were 1756 stocks that rose and 3561 that fell, with a total market turnover of 19450 billion yuan, a decrease of 485 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included household appliances (up 1.22%), comprehensive (up 1.05%), textile and apparel (up 0.87%), petroleum and petrochemicals (up 0.84%), and pharmaceutical and biological (up 0.61%) [1] - The leading decliners were in the sectors of electric equipment (down 2.10%), machinery equipment (down 1.23%), computers (down 1.04%), national defense and military industry (down 0.87%), and automobiles (down 0.81%) [1] Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors with the highest gains included insurance selection, lithium battery electrolyte, blood products, stem cells, SPD, in vitro diagnostics, genetic testing, white household appliances selection, aluminum industry, three-child policy, industrial metals selection, synthetic biology, satellite internet, weight loss drugs, and central enterprise banks [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.39% closing at 4002.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.03% at 13289.01 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.40% at 3134.32 points. Overall, 2784 stocks rose while 2500 fell, with a total trading volume of 19936 billion yuan, a decrease of 1809 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as retail, real estate, steel, basic chemicals, and agriculture showed positive growth, with increases of 1.43%, 0.81%, 0.62%, 0.61%, and 0.60% respectively. Conversely, industries like telecommunications, electronics, computers, coal, and defense showed declines, with decreases of 2.20%, 1.74%, 1.41%, 1.34%, and 1.18% respectively [1][2]. Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors today included cultivated diamonds, superhard materials, lithium battery electrolytes, germanium-gallium-antimony inks, calcium titanate batteries, HJT batteries, BC batteries, SPD, Pinduoduo partners, TOPcon batteries, dairy industry, cross-strait integration, high turnover, energy exports, and PEEK materials [2].

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed signs of recovery after hitting a low, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3559.95 points, down 0.37%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10991.32 points, down 0.17% [1][4][9] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market was 16199 billion, which decreased compared to the previous day [1][4][9] - Among the 30 first-level industries, 13 saw an increase, with media, light manufacturing, and home appliances leading the gains, while oil and petrochemicals, defense, and steel experienced significant declines [1][4][9] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.23%, the S&P 500 down 1.60%, and the Nasdaq down 2.24% [2][4] - For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.92%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.36%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.17% [2][4] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was significantly below expectations, indicating a noticeable slowdown in the labor market [2][4] Key News Highlights - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of value-added tax on interest income from national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025 [3][11] - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting greater participation of private enterprises in major national projects, particularly in the nuclear power sector [3][12] - Eight departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Digital Transformation of the Machinery Industry," aiming for widespread application of digital technologies by 2027 [3][13][14] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is set to implement significant reforms to its IPO pricing mechanism, effective August 4 [3][15]