%% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 行业研究丨深度报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 阿里云（2）：Token 爆发在即，看好全栈玩家突 围 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Summary] 观察海外 AI 产业的发展路径，我们发现从大厂密集投入 Capex（2023 年）到 Token 的爆发 （2025 年）并非一蹴而就，中间存在两年的滞后期。国内大厂投入滞后一年，实际是 2024 年 下半年开启正式的 AI 资本开支周期。参照海外的回报周期，国内 token 数量有望在今年迎来真 正的爆发。在 token 爆发的背景下，云厂商作为应用的血液将率先受益。横向对比所有 AI 时代 大厂，我们发现具备全栈式 AI 布局的企业有望率先形成 AI 投资回报的正循环。因为在丰富的 既有场景下，全栈式 AI 玩家更容易将模型的每一次进步转化为业务收入或者业务壁垒。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 卢之晗 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525120001 S ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant evolution of AI products in 2025, highlighting a shift from merely "talking" to "doing" [3][4] - The focus is on the transformation of interaction paradigms and the integration of AI into both digital and physical realms [5][6] - The article introduces the "AI 100" product list, categorizing AI products into flagship and innovative segments, along with five major application categories [6][9] Group 1: AI Product Development - AI products have shown differentiated growth across various sectors, with strong demand in general scenarios and AI efficiency, while AI life products are exploring better user experiences [14] - The common goal across all sectors is moving towards end-to-end delivery of productivity, shifting the value measurement from "how well it answers" to "how completely it delivers" [14][15] Group 2: Flagship AI Products - The "Flagship AI 100" and "Innovative AI 100" categories represent the strongest and most promising AI products, respectively [7][13] - The article outlines ten core tracks for AI applications, including AI smart assistants, AI agents, AI browsers, AI workstations, Vibe Coding, AI education, AI entertainment, AI health, multimodal creation, and AI consumer hardware [9][10] Group 3: AI Smart Assistants - AI smart assistants are the most traffic-intensive and revenue-near segment, evolving from answering questions to solving problems [16] - Top products in this category include: - Doubao from ByteDance, with over 57 million daily active users [18] - DeepSeek, known for its innovative interaction method that showcases AI reasoning [20] - Tencent Yuanbao, integrating various social networks for enhanced user experience [22] Group 4: AI Agents - AI agents have transitioned from mere conversational tools to executing tasks [23] - Notable products include: - Nano AI from 360 Group, which integrates over 80 large models for task execution [24] - Kouzi, a one-stop AI office space from ByteDance, automating complex workflows [26] - Xingliu, a new generation AI creation tool from Singularity Star, facilitating end-to-end creative processes [30] Group 5: AI Browsers - AI browsers are evolving from passive information displays to active task executors [32] - Key products include: - QQ Browser from Tencent, which integrates AI capabilities to understand user intent [33] - Quark from Alibaba, combining search, reading, and creation functionalities [36] - Fellou, focusing on a unified search and task experience [40] Group 6: AI Workstations - The competition in AI workstations has shifted from the number of features to complete workflow integration [41] - Leading products include: - Baidu Wenku, transforming from a document tool to a knowledge productivity platform [42] - Feishu, integrating AI capabilities into team workflows [46] - Tiangong, focusing on enhancing office and creative efficiency [50] Group 7: AI Education - AI education products are evolving to provide personalized tutoring and enhance learning experiences [61] - Top products include: - KuaiDui AI from Zuoyebang, focusing on personalized tutoring [62] - XiaoYuan AI from Yuanfudao, assisting parents and teachers in managing homework [65] - CapWords, an innovative language learning tool [69] Group 8: AI Entertainment - AI entertainment products are exploring how to provide unique value beyond traditional non-AI products [70] - Notable products include: - Kapi Camera, which enhances user photography experiences [73] - Xingye, a platform for emotional companionship and content creation [76] - DouDou Game Partner, focusing on gaming companionship [79] Group 9: AI Health - The AI health sector is cautiously exploring compliance and user experience [80] - Key products include: - Antifufu, a health management assistant from Ant Group [81] - XiaoHe AI Doctor, providing health consultations based on authoritative medical data [85] - OtterLife, a gamified health management product [88] Group 10: Multimodal Creation - AI creation tools are becoming integral to daily workflows for content creators [90] - Leading products include: - Jidream AI, focusing on video creation processes [91] - Liblib AI, a comprehensive AI creation platform [95] - Keling AI, a creative productivity platform leveraging short video and advertising [97] Group 11: AI Consumer Hardware - The AI consumer hardware sector is characterized by rapid innovation and high turnover [98] - Notable products include: - Plaud Note, an AI note-taking tool [99] - Thunderbird V3 AI glasses, integrating various functionalities [102] - CocoMate, an emotional companion toy [107]

Industry Environment - In 2026, brands must take AI GEO seriously as AI chat assistants become essential tools for 96.8% of the youth, shifting information acquisition from "search" to "dialogue," thus transforming consumer decision-making [3][4] - The current AI companion market faces challenges due to high competition and low user willingness to pay, with significant operational costs and regulatory risks impacting independent developers [5] - The AI wave is transforming healthcare, with the global AI medical market projected to reach $504.17 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 44%, driven by personalized health advice and efficiency improvements [6] - CES 2026 showcased a focus on consumer-grade AI hardware, with major companies like Samsung launching AI life companion plans, indicating a key entry point for AI adoption [7] - The XBOT coffee robot exemplifies embodied intelligence in consumer settings, achieving high precision and personalization, marking a significant milestone in commercial applications of AI [8] Automotive Industry - In 2025, China's new energy vehicle market penetration surpassed that of fuel vehicles, with companies like Li Auto and Xpeng focusing on intelligent competition and profitability strategies [9] AI Glasses - AI glasses did not achieve breakout success at CES 2026, facing challenges such as technical limitations and fragmented ecosystems, although long-term potential remains [10][11] Marketing Trends - In 2025, emotional marketing became a core driver, with AI technology enhancing user engagement and marketing strategies evolving towards intelligent and personalized approaches [12] AI Chip Market - The AI chip sector is experiencing a power shift, with domestic alternatives gaining traction in China, while global competition intensifies between Nvidia and cloud providers like Google and Amazon [12] Robotics and Automation - The rise of robot leasing platforms like "QingTian Rent" indicates a shift towards light asset operations, although challenges in technology and user retention persist [13] Smartphone Market - The smartphone market in 2025 faced fluctuations, with Apple performing well in the high-end segment, while mid-range devices struggled due to rising costs and competition from AI-integrated phones [14] AI Toys - 2025 marked the emergence of AI toys, driven by large model technologies, although challenges related to user demand and data privacy remain [15] Advertising Industry - The advertising sector is witnessing a divide, with tech giants dominating the digital ad market, while smaller businesses face pressure from increased platform fees and competition [16] Company Developments - Nvidia's CEO highlighted the transition to "physical AI," emphasizing the need for AI to interact with the physical world, which presents both opportunities and challenges [18] - Fookai plans to raise 700 million yuan for expansion into energy storage and robotics, aiming to enhance competitiveness in the smart appliance sector [19] - DeepSeek is set to release a new model that aims to outperform existing coding models, potentially leading to significant advancements in programming [20] - OpenAI's launch of ChatGPT Health reflects a strategic move into the AI healthcare space, focusing on privacy and personalized health planning [21] - Zhiyu AI became the first large model company to go public, highlighting the growth of AI technology in the capital market [22] - Midea's Weiling Robotics achieved a significant technological breakthrough in core components, enhancing the quality of China's robotics industry [24]

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival marketing campaign by major internet companies is characterized by a significant increase in cash red envelope distribution, integrating AI products and applications into their strategies [1][2][5] Group 1: Marketing Strategies - Ant Group's Alipay will launch the "Collect Blessings" event on February 3, 2026, featuring a new "Health Blessing" card from its AI product "Ant Aifu" [1][2] - Tencent's AI assistant Yuanbao will start its Spring Festival campaign on February 1, distributing a total of 1 billion yuan in cash red envelopes [2] - Baidu announced a cash red envelope distribution of 500 million yuan from January 26 to March 12, 2026, through its app using the Wenxin assistant [3] Group 2: Changes in Red Envelope Marketing - The red envelope marketing strategy has shifted from "universal cash distribution" to "targeted, layered, and task-oriented" approaches [3] - Red envelopes are now used as tools to validate new business growth points and assess their applicability in high-frequency usage scenarios [3] - Retention and user activity have become the new primary goals of these marketing campaigns [3] Group 3: AI Integration and User Engagement - Major internet companies are leveraging the high engagement of the Spring Festival to build long-term user habits and platform ecosystem stickiness through AI interactions and cultural IPs [4][5] - The red envelope campaigns are evolving from simple promotional tools to platforms for showcasing new products, services, and scenarios [5] - The significance of red envelopes lies in reducing the learning and psychological costs for users trying new features, especially during the emotionally charged Spring Festival period [5] Group 4: Payment Technology and Ecosystem Expansion - The effectiveness of red envelope marketing is directly influenced by the payment technologies and retention capabilities of the platforms [6] - Cash red envelope marketing can connect with more external partners in the B2B sector and help acquire new customers while retaining existing ones in the B2C sector [6]

"从电梯、地铁站的各种广告，到现在我买个会员也能被骗，蚂蚁阿福的推广似乎无孔不入。"在购买会员服务被骗后，张兴感到十分不满。 在接受晚点采访时，蚂蚁集团总裁韩歆毅曾给出一组数据：阿福改名一个多月后，单日用户提问量翻倍至1000万，月活用户规模翻倍至3000万。他的判断 是，健康需求并不低频，反馈也"总体正向"，尤其集中在对医疗与健康已有认知的人群中。 张兴所说的"会员"，是近期在多家电商及内容平台上浮现的一类诱导性链接。它们通常以极低价格，几毛甚至0.01元，来吸引用户购买视频会员、网站会 员或流量包等虚拟商品，随后引导用户执行一系列操作才能"领取"。 同时进一步强调"我们要保持这个节奏，进一步加快去推。" 这些步骤往往最终指向下载蚂蚁阿福App，而所谓的会员权益也不会实际到账。据「市象」观察，这类链接已在小红书、闲鱼、淘宝、B站等多个具备交 易功能的平台上出现，混杂在正常的商品链接中，让人防不胜防。 持续加码的动作下，2025年12月AQ 改名为阿福后，广告投放迅速铺开。韩歆毅在采访中坦言，一个月花了"小几个亿"，而目标也很清晰：抢占心智，在 2026年继续投放，直到用户规模达到可以自传播的程度。 这正是地 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 "Smart Life" annual case event revealed 20 companies and products, highlighting the deep integration of technology and daily life, with a focus on AI products that enhance empathy and user experience [1] - The event emphasizes the importance of practical applications of smart technology in addressing real-life issues and improving user convenience, showcasing a shift from tool-based to ecosystem-based technology [1] Group 1: Key Trends in Smart Technology - The integration of AI products is becoming more pronounced, with a focus on empathy and user-centric solutions [1][3] - Future products are expected to deeply incorporate large model capabilities from the design phase, leading to a new generation of AI-native applications that transform user habits [2] Group 2: Notable Award Winners - Taobao Flash Purchase was recognized as the annual instant retail innovation platform [5] - Ant Financial's "Afu" was awarded as the annual family health guardian AI butler [5] - Kuaishou's "wow" intelligent agent was named the annual commercial AI assistant [6] - Hisense's AI Life Butler received recognition as the annual smart appliance innovation case [12] - DJI's Osmo Action 6 was awarded for its contribution to smart imaging accessibility [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the clear trend of AI in the healthcare industry, driven by policy implementation and technological breakthroughs. Key policies include the State Council's directive on AI in healthcare, aiming for widespread application of AI in diagnosis, health management, and insurance services by 2030 [10][11] - The report identifies the G-end and B-end commercial models as relatively mature, while the C-end applications, particularly the Ant Financial's "Afu" app, are still developing. The app has over 30 million monthly active users, with a significant portion from lower-tier cities [11][12] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring upcoming catalysts in 2026, including AI partnerships and new model releases from major tech companies [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. AI Empowering Healthcare Industry Development - AI is set to enhance the healthcare industry chain, with policies accelerating the integration of AI in medical services, public health, and health industry development [13] - The report outlines various AI application scenarios in healthcare, including intelligent diagnosis and drug development [13][15] 2. AI Healthcare Stock Price Movements - Stock price drivers in AI healthcare include policy changes, technological advancements, and performance realization [4] - The report notes significant technological breakthroughs and product applications in the past three years, with a focus on upcoming key events in 2026 [4][11] 3. G-end and B-end Commercialization - The G-end and B-end business models are highlighted as more established, with G-end focusing on government and healthcare needs, while B-end targets hospitals and pharmaceutical companies [11] - The C-end model is primarily based on drug sales through AI health applications, with the Ant Financial's "Afu" app leading in user engagement [11][12] 4. Key Investment Targets - The report suggests focusing on companies such as MedLinker, JD Health, Alibaba Health, iFlytek Medical Technology, Ping An Good Doctor, and Ruanda Medical for potential investment opportunities [12][11]

Core Insights - The 2026 Alipay "Collect Five Blessings" event will introduce a new special card called "Health Blessing," issued by Ant Group's health AI application "Ant Aifu" [1][2] - Users who collect the "Health Blessing" will receive an additional red envelope, enhancing the engagement of the event [1][2] - The introduction of the "Health Blessing" was influenced by user suggestions during the pre-event phase, which gained significant attention on social media [1][2] - Ant Group's CEO, Han Xinyi, previously indicated that "Ant Aifu" was originally intended to be named "Health Blessing," suggesting a strong alignment with the event's theme [1][2] - As of January 29, the monthly active users of "Ant Aifu" surpassed 30 million, placing it among the top four AI applications in China [1][2]

Group 1 - Domestic large model companies have recently released new models, including MiniMaxMusic2.5 and Kimi K2.5, which has topped global rankings shortly after its launch [1] - The Kimi K2.5 model features an innovative "cluster operation" capability, allowing the scheduling of 100 specialized "avatars" to handle 1500 tool calls simultaneously [1] - The improvement in large model capabilities and reduction in costs are laying the foundation for the large-scale application of AI, transitioning the industry from a focus on model training to scenario applications [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, aiming for over 90% application penetration of new intelligent terminals and agents by 2030, providing long-term support for the industry [2] - The global AI market is expected to reach $900 billion by 2026, with China being one of the fastest-growing and most dynamic markets, projected to exceed a 30% growth rate in AI market size [2] - The "Spring Festival Red Packet War" is anticipated to further ignite the widespread adoption of AI applications, highlighting the importance of companies leading in AI applications, especially those closely collaborating with major tech giants [2]

Core Insights - Ant Group and Alibaba are competing in the AI to C market, with both companies launching AI applications targeting consumer needs within a short timeframe [1][11][21] - Alibaba's "Qianwen App" and Ant Group's "Lingguang" are positioned as AI life and productivity entry points, respectively, indicating a strategic focus on consumer engagement through AI [1][11][21] - The competition between these two entities raises questions about the necessity of multiple overlapping products in a market where user attention is limited [20][21] Group 1: AI Product Launches - Alibaba officially announced the public testing of its personal AI assistant "Qianwen App," aiming to serve as a universal life entry point for consumers [1] - Ant Group launched its multimodal AI assistant "Lingguang," which emphasizes the ability to generate small applications in 30 seconds using natural language [1] - Ant Group upgraded its AI health product AQ to "Ant Afu," further expanding its consumer-facing services [1] Group 2: Functionality and User Engagement - Both Qianwen and Lingguang offer similar functionalities, including AI-generated content and daily task management, indicating a high degree of overlap [15][20] - Alipay is evolving into a comprehensive consumption platform, capable of performing tasks traditionally associated with Taobao and Tmall, thus broadening its user engagement [2][10] - Alipay's "Daily Flash Sale" feature has seen significant success, with record sales during major shopping events, showcasing its potential as a consumer project [2] Group 3: Membership and User Benefits - Alipay and Taobao membership systems are similar, but Alipay offers a broader range of benefits beyond shopping, including financial services and healthcare [4][9] - Alipay's diamond membership provides 41 benefits compared to Taobao's 18+, highlighting its competitive edge in user engagement [4][9] Group 4: Strategic Implications - The competition between Ant Group and Alibaba raises concerns about internal resource allocation and user attention, as both companies vie for the same consumer base [20][21] - Despite their historical ties, the regulatory environment has led to a separation in governance, yet both companies continue to share significant user bases and technological resources [18][19] - The strategic decision to launch multiple AI products simultaneously may reflect a defensive posture in a rapidly evolving market, but could also lead to inefficiencies [21]