Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, steel futures fluctuated upward with strong performance. In terms of supply and demand, hot metal production remained above 2.4 million tons, at a relatively high level. Rebar production decreased month - on - month, demand rebounded, and inventory started to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils were generally stable, with both production and demand at high levels. There were no significant contradictions in iron ore and coking coal on the raw material side. With high hot metal production, demand was guaranteed. Although coking coal production continued to recover month - on - month, it was still lower than the same period last year. Currently, the pressure on the black market is mainly reflected in rebar, but the inventory and warehouse receipt volume in Hangzhou decreased, and the spot pressure improved marginally. The overall macro - sentiment remained positive [2]. - The month - on - month rebound in demand and the decline in inventory are normal at this stage, and there is little possibility of continuous above - seasonal performance in the future. The current market rally is a rebound under the background of relatively balanced raw materials, the influence of "anti - involution" news, and strong macro - sentiment. In the short term, it may be supported by meetings and policies, but approaching the October delivery, the logic may have an adverse impact on the market, and it is difficult to have a trending market. It will mainly fluctuate within a range, showing a pattern of being strong first and then weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - **Monthly Steel Data (August 2025)**: Pig iron production was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%; cumulative production was 579.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. Crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; cumulative production was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. Steel production was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%; cumulative production was 982.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. Steel imports were 0.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; cumulative imports were 3.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. Steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%; cumulative exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [5]. - **Weekly Five - Major Steel Products Data (September 19, 2025)**: The total production of five - major steel products was 8.5546 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Total consumption was 8.5 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17%. Total inventory was 15.2 million tons, an increase of 51,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.95% [6]. Production - related - **Steel Production**: The report provides seasonal charts of monthly crude steel production and weekly five - major steel products production [8]. - **Blast Furnace Production**: Seasonal charts of weekly average hot metal production, steel profitability, blast furnace operation rate, and blast furnace capacity utilization rate in China are presented [10]. - **Building Materials Production**: Seasonal charts of weekly actual production of rebar and wire rod in China are provided [12]. - **Coil Production**: Seasonal charts of weekly actual production of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates in China are given [13]. - **Short - Process Production**: Seasonal charts of weekly actual short - process production of rebar and wire rod are provided [16]. - **Electric Furnace Profit**: Seasonal charts of building steel regional profits and rebar - steel price differentials are presented [18]. - **Steel Production Profit**: On September 19, 2025, the profit changes of rebar - blast furnace, rebar - electric furnace (valley - rate electricity), rebar - electric furnace (flat - rate electricity), and hot - rolled coil - blast furnace in different regions (East China, North China, and Central China) are provided [20]. Demand - related - **Steel Demand**: Seasonal charts of weekly consumption of five - major steel products and the total trading volume of building steel in the mainstream market in China are presented [22]. - **Building Materials Consumption**: Seasonal charts of weekly consumption of rebar and wire rod in China are provided [24]. - **Real Estate High - Frequency Data**: The cumulative year - on - year decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 4.5%. The cumulative transaction area of 100 plots of land decreased by 10% year - on - year [27]. - **Cement and Concrete Demand**: Cement outbound volume improved marginally, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of 27%. Concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with an absolute level similar to the same period last year and a cumulative year - on - year decline of 14% [30]. - **Coil Consumption**: Seasonal charts of weekly consumption of medium - thick plates, cold - rolled coils, and hot - rolled coils in China are provided [31][32][34]. - **Steel Exports**: Steel exports in August decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a high level for the same period [37]. Inventory - related - **Steel Inventory**: Seasonal charts of weekly inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio of five - major steel products are presented [38]. - **Rebar Inventory**: Seasonal charts of rebar inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [40]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: Seasonal charts of hot - rolled coil inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio are given [42]. - **Other Steel Inventory**: Seasonal charts of weekly inventory of wire rod, medium - thick plate, and cold - rolled coil in China are provided [43][45]. Price - related - **Rebar Basis**: Rebar basis has been relatively stable recently. The basis for the October contract is at a relatively high level in recent years, and the basis for the January contract is at a neutral level. Currently, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar is the highest for the same period, strongly suppressing the October contract, and the near - month basis may remain relatively high [50]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Basis**: The basis of the October contract of hot - rolled coils remained stable with a slight decline this week, and the basis of the January contract was stable [59]. - **Rebar Month - Spread**: The rebar month - spread moved at a low level this week with limited fluctuations. A large number of rebar warehouse receipts continued to suppress the October contract [64]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread**: The 10 - 1 month - spread of hot - rolled coils has strengthened recently. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are relatively stable, with few warehouse receipts, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is at a neutral level [69]. - **Coil - Rebar Spread**: Seasonal charts of the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread are presented [70]. - **Spot Regional Spread**: Seasonal charts of rebar regional spreads (Shanghai, Guangzhou - Shanghai) and hot - rolled coil regional spreads (Shanghai, Guangzhou - Shanghai) are provided [73][74][75]. - **Spot Product Spread**: Seasonal charts of rebar - steel spreads (East China), cold - hot spreads (Shanghai), wire rod - rebar spreads (Shanghai), and medium - thick plate - hot - rolled coil spreads (Shanghai) are presented [78][79]. Others - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Warehouse Receipt Volume**: Seasonal charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil warehouse receipt volume are provided [80]. - **Position Volume**: Seasonal charts of position volume are presented [81].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations around the 3900-point mark, with expectations for potential opportunities and risks in the upcoming week [1] Policy Outlook - Key highlights for the upcoming week include a press conference from the State Council Information Office, with three potential positive developments: 1. Financial policy adjustments, including the central bank's recent change to "multiple price bidding" for reverse repos, signaling targeted liquidity support 2. Enhanced industrial policies, with significant documents expected for sectors like energy storage, smart connected vehicles, and semiconductors 3. New consumer stimulus policies potentially being introduced before the National Day holiday, focusing on tourism and retail subsidies [3] - Recent regulatory reforms, such as the registration system reform, are expected to facilitate the entry of quality companies while allowing weaker firms to exit more easily [3] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The market sentiment has cooled, with the fear and greed index dropping from 75 to 62, indicating reduced enthusiasm among investors [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has been consolidating around the 3900-point level for over half a month, with the 3850-point mark being crucial for market stability [4] - The ChiNext Index has reached new highs, but caution is advised as the MACD indicator shows signs of weakening momentum [4] Capital Flow - Northbound capital has shown significant inflows, with a net purchase of nearly 40 billion in September, primarily targeting technology growth stocks such as communication equipment and semiconductors [4] - Traditional consumer sectors like home appliances and textiles are experiencing reduced interest from these investors [4] Investment Strategy - Recommended positioning includes maintaining a 60% base position with 30% in flexible capital, focusing on technology growth sectors like semiconductors and robotics, which benefit from both capital inflows and policy support [5] - Defensive strategies should consider undervalued blue-chip stocks, banks, insurance, and gold sectors, which tend to perform well during interest rate cuts [5] - Caution is advised regarding high-valuation technology stocks and industries sensitive to tariff impacts, as these may pose risks [5] Key Signals to Monitor - Important signals to watch include whether northbound capital can exceed a net inflow of 8 billion in a single day, if the Shanghai Composite Index can maintain above 3850 points, and whether trading volume in technology stocks can increase [6]

策略周观点：一季报全行业业绩综述 20250511 摘要 • 上周市场受关税扰动及政策事件催化影响显著，板块走势分化。本周持震 荡观点，关税问题仍存变数，主要宽基指数已补上 4 月 7 日缺口，企业盈 利影响已被定价反映，但实际关税问题尚未完全解决，因此需保持谨慎态 度。 • 配置方面，建议维持泛科技、内需及红利组合。公募基金新规要求连续三 年业绩跑赢基准 10 个点以上的基金扣减管理费，将引导资金向基准指数 配置，利好沪深 300 或大市值风格，以及金融、公用事业、消费等公募欠 配行业。 • 长期来看，类平准基金有利于大市值股票，尤其是沪深 300 指数，加大险 资入市也利好红利风格。衍生品市场显示市场观望情绪和政策托底共同作 用下的低波动状态，推荐股票市场采用哑铃型配置，即红利加科技板块。 • 当前更偏好港股，因关税缓和窗口期内港股对外部变化弹性更大，资金面 从 4 月下旬开始转为净流入，内需消费、科技及红利板块在港股市场相关 公司质地更优。不看好美股，因美股处于降息预期不低但衰退预期不高的 状态，二季度压力较大。 Q&A 请您介绍一下 A 股、港股和海外市场在过去一周的表现及主要影响因素。 上周市场的主 ...

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