所以从成交数据来看，楼市10年前就没了"金九银十"，只有3月和4月开春楼市才值得期待一下，并且一般过完春节后的一个月，也是政策频出 的一月，通常就是3月了。 虽然9、10月10年前就成色不足，但我们坚持10年的"月报"还是得为大家呈上真实的数据。下面请看！ 数据说明Explain：数据出自兔博士app，2025年10月二手房挂牌数据，环比2025年9月。 合肥HEFEI 我们之前的"新房10月成交数据"已经阐述了同样的观点：金九银十的神话早就破灭了。 早在10年前的2016年楼市政策正式收紧的那一年，金九银十就已经没了。之后的楼市，大家如果一直以来关注兔博士，看我们每月月报数据的 话，应该知道，金九银十从来都很"平庸"。成交量说不定还没有11、12月高。大家下面看趋势图就知道。 长丰 3626套 +4% 9124元 0% 肥东 2132套 +1% 8106元 0% 肥西 5950套 +3% 11588元 -1% 6509套 +3% 2200套 +2% 6974套 +2% 包河 庐阳 政务 15388元 0% 15808元 0% 26470元 -1% 7975套 +3% 3885套 +3% 6659套 +4% ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the second-hand housing market, reflecting a buyer's market with significant supply-demand imbalance [13][14][36]. Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in 100 cities continues to show a downward adjustment, with supply pressures and cautious demand creating a fragile balance [13][14]. - The total listing volume reached 2.6536 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.82%, with new first-tier cities leading the growth at 13.07% [13][18]. - The demand side remains weak, as the housing search heat index dropped by 6.42% year-on-year, with all city tiers experiencing declines [23][24]. - Average listing duration increased to 94.86 days, indicating prolonged matching times between buyers and sellers [29][30]. - The average listing price across 100 cities fell to 11,790 yuan per square meter, down 8.12% year-on-year, with all city tiers showing price declines [36][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Listing Volume - The total listing volume in October 2025 was 2.6536 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.82% [18]. - First-tier cities saw a 6.85% increase, while new first-tier cities experienced a 13.07% rise [18][19]. 2. Housing Search Heat Index - The housing search heat index for October 2025 was 70.25, down 6.42% year-on-year, with first-tier cities declining by 8.09% [24][25]. - Shenzhen experienced the largest drop at 10.75%, while Shanghai had a smaller decline of 4.90% [25][27]. 3. Listing Duration - The average listing duration reached 94.86 days, up 5.79% year-on-year, with first-tier cities averaging 107.29 days [29][30]. - Beijing had the highest increase in listing duration at 21.17%, while Guangzhou had the smallest at 4.48% [31][32]. 4. Listing Price - The average listing price was 11,790 yuan per square meter, down 8.12% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a decline of 6.73% [36][37]. - The largest price drop was observed in second-tier cities at 8.95%, while new first-tier cities and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 7.97% and 8.12%, respectively [36][38].

Core Insights - The recent data on second-hand housing listings indicates a significant trend, with an increase in high-end properties priced between 8 million to 30 million yuan in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, showing month-on-month growth [1][7] - A "replacement action" for quality assets is quietly starting, reflecting a shift in owner sentiment and structural differentiation in the second-hand housing market [1][10] Group 1: Listing Data - In September, the total number of new second-hand housing listings in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou was 46,000, remaining stable compared to August [2] - Beijing had the highest monthly listing volume at 18,448 units, with a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 3% [5][6] - Shenzhen's listings reached 6,654 units, with both year-on-year and month-on-month growth exceeding 10% [5][6] - Shanghai's listings were 15,189 units, showing a slight month-on-month decline of 2% but a significant year-on-year increase of over 20% [5][6] - In contrast, Hangzhou experienced a notable decline in listings, with a month-on-month drop of 12% and a year-on-year decrease of 41% [5][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The high-end property segment (8 million to 30 million yuan) is driving the increase in listings in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, with respective month-on-month growth rates of 0.57%, 0.66%, and 0.72% [7][10] - The market in Hangzhou is characterized by a cautious sentiment among owners, leading to a steady decline in listing activity [10] - The overall sentiment in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is improving, with owners showing a stronger willingness to sell, while Hangzhou remains more reserved [10] Group 3: Structural Changes - The structural changes in the listing data indicate a shift towards larger properties, with an increase in listings for units over 140 square meters across the four cities [7][10] - The high-end market is expected to face competition from newly launched quality properties, which may impact the second-hand high-end market [10] - The ordinary housing market is experiencing a "price tug-of-war," with a large number of listings leading to extended transaction cycles for properties lacking significant price advantages [10]

Core Viewpoint - The overall second-hand housing market transaction scale is expected to continue its fluctuating trend, with a gradual decline observed in September 2025 [2][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - In September 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 30 key cities decreased by 1% month-on-month but increased by 9% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum [2]. - The new listing volume in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showed a month-on-month increase, while only Hangzhou experienced a decline [4][11]. Group 2: City-Specific Analysis - In September, Beijing and Shenzhen saw an increase in new listings, while Shanghai's year-on-year growth exceeded 20%. In contrast, Hangzhou's new listings fell by 41% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month, reflecting a steady decline in owner listing enthusiasm [4][11]. - The new listing volume in Beijing for properties priced below 300 million yuan and between 600-3000 million yuan showed a recovery in owner listing enthusiasm, with the 100-300 million yuan segment being the main contributor [7]. Group 3: Price Segment Insights - In the price segment analysis, high-priced properties (800-3000 million yuan) in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showed increased listing activity, while Hangzhou's listings for properties under 6 million yuan accounted for over 80% but saw a slight decline [8][11]. - The concentration of listings in the 600-800 million yuan and 1000-3000 million yuan segments in Hangzhou increased, indicating a shift in owner behavior towards higher-priced properties [8]. Group 4: Size Segment Insights - The new listing volume in the small (below 70 sqm) and large (above 120 sqm) size segments increased, with notable growth in the 50 sqm and below category in Beijing and the 50-70 sqm category in Shenzhen and Hangzhou [10]. - Large-sized properties (above 140 sqm) in Beijing and Hangzhou also experienced a month-on-month increase, catering to high-end buyer demand [10]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The overall second-hand housing market is expected to maintain a fluctuating transaction scale, with high new listing volumes indicating increased supply. However, the traditional peak season in October may divert some high-end demand to new properties with better value [11]. - The transaction cycle may extend if there are no significant price advantages for first-time buyers, leading to potential challenges in inventory clearance for older properties in urban and suburban areas [11].

Core Insights - The real estate market in key cities across China showed a significant rebound in transaction volume in September 2025, with notable year-on-year increases in several cities [2][3] - However, despite the increase in transaction volume, the average price of second-hand residential properties continued to decline, indicating ongoing downward pressure on prices [7][4] Transaction Data Summary - Cities with the highest transaction volumes included Shanghai (17,742 units, +43.1% YoY), Chengdu (16,345 units, +25.4% YoY), and Jinan (4,932 units, +26.9% YoY) [2] - Conversely, cities like Dalian (-60.8% YoY), Foshan (-27.9% YoY), and Nanjing (-12.0% YoY) experienced significant declines in transaction volumes [3] Price Trends - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,381 yuan per square meter in September 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.38% [7] - The price declines were observed across first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities, with first-tier cities experiencing a 3.64% cumulative decline from January to September 2025 [4] Market Activity - The trading activity in September 2025 indicated a recovery in the second-hand housing market, but the high volume of listings continued to exert pressure on prices [7] - The cumulative price decline for the first three quarters of 2025 was reported at 5.79% for the 100 cities monitored [7]

Core Insights - The current second-hand residential market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with properties being listed at prices much lower than their purchase prices, reflecting a broader trend of price declines across the market [1][5][9] Market Trends - The number of second-hand residential listings has surpassed 7.3 million nationwide, indicating a potential absorption period of up to 5 years at the current sales pace [1] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are witnessing a surge in new listings, with Beijing seeing a 33% year-on-year increase, Shenzhen experiencing a 94% rise, and Shanghai's listings growing by 51% [3] - In Nanjing, the removal of sales restrictions led to a dramatic increase in listings from 720 to 3,114 in a single day, marking a 332% spike [3] Price Dynamics - In Guangzhou's Zhujiang New Town, a luxury property that was listed for 5 million last year sold for 3.31 million recently, reflecting a 33.6% drop in average transaction prices in the area [5] - The average number of price adjustments for second-hand homes in Beijing reached 4.2 times, with final sale prices typically 23%-28% lower than initial listing prices [9][10] Market Behavior - The market is caught in a "price drop spiral," where decreasing prices lead to buyer hesitance, further prompting sellers to lower prices [9][10] - Real estate agents are employing systematic price reduction strategies, with data showing that agents now need to conduct an average of 32 viewings to close a sale, compared to just 7 viewings in 2021 [7] Rental Market - Rental yields are declining, with some areas in Shenzhen seeing rent-to-price ratios fall below 1:800, significantly lower than international warning levels [12] Strategic Recommendations - Industry experts suggest a "gradient response" strategy for sellers, advising them to price their properties 5%-8% below recent sales in their area [14] - Buyers are encouraged to focus on properties that have been listed for over 120 days and have undergone multiple price reductions [14] Future Outlook - The era of real estate as a universal investment tool is considered over, with the market expected to return to its fundamental purpose of providing housing [16]

Core Insights - The Shanghai second-hand housing market is showing contradictory signals in September 2025, with 91% of neighborhoods reducing listing prices while transaction volumes are stabilizing and increasing [1][2][3] - The "8.25" policy implemented on August 25, 2025, is gradually influencing the market dynamics, particularly benefiting suburban housing demand [1][11] Listing Prices - Over 90% of neighborhoods have seen a decrease in listing prices, with an average decline of 13.6% over the past year [3] - The listing price index dropped from a peak of 90.3 in September 2024 to 78 in September 2025, indicating a significant downward trend [3] Transaction Activity - The total transaction volume of second-hand homes exceeded 18,000 units in September, marking a 3% increase from the previous month [1] - The proportion of neighborhoods with rising transaction prices increased to 45% in September, up from 41% in August [5] Price Negotiation - The negotiation space for second-hand homes narrowed from 19% in August to 15% in September, indicating a convergence in price expectations between buyers and sellers [8] Demand Segmentation - The increase in transaction activity is primarily driven by the rising prices in first-time buyer neighborhoods, with 47% of these areas experiencing price increases [15] - The policy changes have activated demand from first-time buyers and reduced purchasing costs, leading to a notable increase in market activity [12][11] Regional Performance - The suburban areas, particularly Jinshan and Fengxian districts, have seen significant increases in transaction volumes, with Fengxian accounting for 5.05% of total transactions in September [15] - The majority of neighborhoods with rental yields above 2% are also located in suburban areas, reinforcing the notion that first-time buyers are the key drivers of price stabilization [18][21] Future Outlook - The ongoing trend of "price for volume" is expected to continue, but significant price variations are emerging across different districts, indicating a complex market landscape [24] - The ability of mid-to-high-end neighborhoods to gain traction will depend on new listings and the introduction of quality products in the new housing market [24]

Core Insights - In September, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai continued to grow both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the market and the effectiveness of policy measures [1] Transaction Volume - In September, Shanghai's second-hand residential transactions reached 17,723 units, representing a month-on-month increase of 2.7% and a year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to September, the transaction volume increased by 16.9% year-on-year [1] Price Trends - In September, the price of second-hand residential properties in Shanghai fell by 0.48% month-on-month, remaining stable compared to the previous month (August recorded a decline of 0.49%) [1] - Year-on-year, the price decreased by 3.85% [1]

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in Hangzhou has shown a decline in transaction volume for six consecutive months since March, with September's transactions at 6,377 units, down 3.9% from August but up 5.7% year-on-year [1] - The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in September was 26,832 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 4.8% from August and 4.5% from September of the previous year [1] - The market is increasingly dominated by low-priced, small-sized homes, with properties priced under 2 million yuan accounting for 52% of transactions, up 2.7% from August [1] Transaction Structure - The proportion of transactions for properties under 60 square meters increased by 0.8% compared to August, while the share for properties over 140 square meters rose by 1.5% [1] - The 90-120 square meter segment saw the largest decline in transaction share, dropping by 1.8% [1] - The top 20 selling communities in September were primarily affordable housing projects in suburban areas, with 15 communities having average transaction prices below 40,000 yuan per square meter [1] Notable Transactions - The highest number of transactions was recorded at Jiangxiang Yunlu in Xiaoshan, with 29 units sold at an average price of 15,655 yuan per square meter, down 4% from August [2] - Yuexiu Xinghui City and Zhongtian Junfu in Lin'an ranked second and third, with 23 and 16 units sold at average prices of 8,762 yuan and 9,955 yuan per square meter, respectively, both continuing to decline [2] - The high-end community, Greentown Peach Blossom Source in Yuhang, sold 11 low-density units at an average price of 130,000 yuan per square meter, marking a 16% increase [2] Sales Ranking - The sales ranking for September highlighted the following communities: 1. Jiangxiang Yunlu, Xiaoshan: 29 units, 15,655 yuan/sqm 2. Yuexiu Xinghui City, Lin'an: 23 units, 8,762 yuan/sqm 3. Zhongtian Junfu, Lin'an: 16 units, 9,955 yuan/sqm 4. Greentown Blue Garden, Linping: 14 units, 64,130 yuan/sqm 5. Yujiale International Garden, Yuhang: 13 units, 48,868 yuan/sqm 6. Nandu Garden, Xihu: 13 units, 44,125 yuan/sqm [3]

Group 1 - In September, the second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.6% month-on-month, with Guangzhou experiencing the largest drop of 0.97% [2] - The increase in listing volumes indicates a rush among homeowners to sell, leading to intensified competition and price reductions [2] - The average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities nationwide was 13,381 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.74% and a year-on-year drop of 7.38% [2] Group 2 - Second-tier cities saw a significant price drop of 0.87% month-on-month, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a smaller decline of 0.68% [3] - The disparity in price movements is attributed to higher initial price bubbles in first and second-tier cities, alongside the emergence of new properties with better features that outcompete older second-hand homes [3] Group 3 - Despite falling prices, the transaction activity in key cities increased in September, with higher viewing and inquiry volumes, although the high listing volume prevented price stabilization [4] - The core policy logic focuses on "stabilizing" rather than "pushing up" prices, as the economic fundamentals must support any potential price increases [4]