回想2018年那份轰动一时的预言，马云那句"未来的房子可能会像葱一样便宜"仿佛还在耳边回响。那时的城市，房价如同雨后春笋般节节攀升，开发商的 推土机昼夜不停，炒房者像是追逐热浪的浪潮，连夜排队抢购的现象比比皆是。几乎没有人愿意相信，那个站在聚光灯下的预言会有成真的一天。大家不 过是笑一笑，想着这不过是又一个商业巨头的夸张比喻而已。 时光流转，而今再看，市场的浪潮早已默默改变了方向。全国平均房价下跌超过30%，曾经那些飙升的城市也开始出现回落。在鹤岗、铁岭、双鸭山这样 的小城里，几万元、十几万元就能买到一套房子的消息，早已不再是新闻。现实似乎在悄悄印证着马云的那句话，只是许多人当初未曾细想，房价是否能 真的廉价如葱，或许本就不是字面意思那样简单。 图片 坦白说，马云所说的"房价如葱"，更多地是一种意象，意在描绘未来住房价格逐步回归理性，与居民的实际收入挂钩的趋势。他并非预见到房子会变得像 日常蔬菜一样唾手可得，而是希望指出，当市场泡沫散去，普通人不必再为了一套房耗尽一生心血。到了那一天，只要努力工作，攒下一份积蓄，买房便 不再是遥不可及的梦想。这种想法，听起来温暖而充满希望，触动了许多人心底对安稳生活的向往。 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is undergoing significant changes, necessitating a restructuring of supply and demand to promote long-term stability and healthy development [2][3] - The focus on building "good houses" represents a new competitive landscape for real estate companies, emphasizing product quality to attract buyers [3] - Recent policies aim to foster a healthier industry environment, but recovery in the real estate market is expected to take time, with ongoing challenges in achieving stability [3] Market Performance - In October 2025, Fuzhou's residential sales reached 5,307 units, marking a 43.74% increase from September, the highest in 26 months [7] - The city saw a significant contribution from Minhou, which reported 2,728 units sold, a 1311-unit increase from September [17] - Despite the overall increase, the market remains uneven, with some districts like Mawei reporting very low sales figures [12][13] Sales Data - The total residential sales in Fuzhou from January to October 2025 amounted to 14,936 units, with a total area of 1,461,374 square meters [4] - The sales figures for October 2025 by district show Minhou leading with 2,728 units, followed by Changle and Fuqing with 423 and 241 units, respectively [10][17] - The average area per unit sold in October was approximately 98.23 square meters, with significant variations across districts [8] Comparative Analysis - Year-on-year comparisons indicate that the overall sales volume has decreased by over 30% compared to the same period last year, despite recent spikes in certain areas [6] - The sales performance in October 2025 reflects a mixed trend, with some districts experiencing growth while others continue to struggle [12][20] - The data suggests a potential recovery trajectory, but the market's health remains contingent on broader economic and consumer confidence factors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current issues in the real estate market are characterized by "volume" for new homes and "price" for second-hand homes, with new home sales declining due to structural changes in transactions as second-hand homes increasingly replace new home sales [2][12][16]. New Home Market - The new home market is experiencing a continuous decline in transaction volume, with sales area dropping by 5.6% year-on-year from January to September, and a significant 11.4% decline in September compared to the previous year [4]. - The sales area of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 20.1% year-on-year in the first nine months, with September showing a year-on-year decline of 14.7%, an improvement from August's 31.3% drop [4]. - New home prices continue to rise, with a 2.7% year-on-year increase in September, and a slight 0.1% month-on-month growth. Price trends vary significantly between first/second-tier cities and third/fourth-tier cities [4][12]. Second-Hand Home Market - In contrast, the second-hand home market has seen a volume increase but a price decline, with transaction volume in 18 sample cities growing by 17.1% year-on-year from January to September, and a notable 29.7% increase in September compared to the previous year [8]. - Second-hand home prices have been under pressure, with a 0.7% month-on-month decline in September, marking the 41st consecutive month of price drops, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.4% [8]. - The price decline is most pronounced in second-tier cities, with September showing a month-on-month drop of 0.9% and a year-on-year decline of 8.3% [8]. Market Dynamics - The total transaction area for new and second-hand homes has stabilized around 15 billion square meters since 2022, following a significant drop from 19.3 billion square meters in 2021 [12][14]. - The share of second-hand home transactions has increased from 19% in 2021 to an expected 46% in 2024, with projections suggesting it may reach around 50% by 2025 [17]. - The market is expected to stabilize as the pressure from new home sales diminishes and the inventory of new homes continues to decrease, with a monthly reduction of approximately 20 million square meters [17][19]. Future Outlook - The new home sales area is projected to remain at 7.5 billion square meters by 2025, with new construction and completion areas declining to 6 billion and 5 billion square meters, respectively [17]. - The second-hand home market is entering a "de-inventory" phase, with a decrease in new listings since July, indicating a shift towards a balance in supply and demand [19].

Core Insights - The real estate market in Chengdu remains resilient despite overall market pressures, with significant growth in both new and second-hand housing transactions [1][9][12] - Chengdu ranks first among key cities in terms of both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes, indicating a strong market position [2][9] - The total area of residential land in Chengdu has decreased significantly, reflecting a tightening supply which supports market stability [15][19] Group 1: New Housing Market - In the first three quarters of 2025, new housing transactions in Chengdu reached 930 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2% [1][3] - September saw a monthly transaction volume of 84 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 7% [3][28] - Chengdu has consistently ranked first in new housing transactions among 30 key cities since 2020, with a widening gap from the second-ranked city [6][12] Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Market - Chengdu's second-hand housing transactions totaled 1,466 million square meters in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 24% year-on-year increase [9][12] - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions has risen from 16.13% in 2021 to 64.51% by September 2025, indicating a strong market shift [12][28] - Chengdu's second-hand housing market has shown continuous growth for three years, contrasting with the declining trends in many other cities [12][22] Group 3: Land Supply and Market Dynamics - The total area of residential land in Chengdu has decreased to 2,307 hectares, down 28% from its peak in early 2022 [15][19] - The area of undeveloped land has dropped by over 50% since early 2022, indicating a significant reduction in available land for new projects [19][22] - The combination of population growth, stable housing prices, and strong market demand contributes to the resilience of Chengdu's real estate market [22][25]

Core Points - The press conference held by the State Council Information Office on October 11 highlighted the achievements in high-quality development of housing and urban-rural construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the importance of transforming old houses into "good houses" through renovation [1] - Key focus areas for building "good houses" include good standards, design, materials, construction, and maintenance [1] Group 1: Housing Development Achievements - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the cumulative sales of newly built commercial residential areas reached approximately 5 billion square meters [2] - Over 11 million units of various types of affordable housing and urban village, as well as urban dilapidated housing renovations, have been constructed, benefiting over 30 million people [2] Group 2: Urban Renewal and Community Improvement - More than 240,000 old urban communities have been renovated during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, benefiting over 40 million households and more than 110 million people [3] Group 3: Regulatory and Planning Framework - The implementation of nationwide mandatory residential project standards began on May 1, with 14 enhanced requirements, including increased building height and mandatory elevator installation for buildings over four stories [1] - The Deputy Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that the stable and healthy development of the real estate market depends on the effective allocation of resources related to people, houses, land, and finance [1]

Group 1: Second-hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen recorded 5,267 transactions in August, a month-on-month decrease of 7.1%, but a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, maintaining a stable activity level above the "industry prosperity line" for six consecutive months [3][9] - Longgang district led the market with 1,169 transactions, accounting for 22.2% of the total, followed by Futian, Luohu, Nanshan, and Baoan, while peripheral areas recorded less than 100 transactions [3][5] - Longgang dominated the top ten active sub-districts, with four entries, indicating a strong demand for affordable housing in these areas [5] Group 2: New Housing Market - The new housing market experienced a significant decline, with only 1,352 new homes sold in August, a month-on-month drop of 13.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 52.8%, reflecting a cautious attitude from buyers regarding new home delivery timelines and price expectations [7] Group 3: Listing Volume - The number of second-hand housing listings reached a record high of 76,300 units by the end of August, up nearly 30% from January, indicating a buyer's market with increased supply and potential for negotiation [8] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The overall market is characterized by strong resilience in the second-hand housing sector, a struggling new housing market, and high listing volumes, suggesting a self-regulating market seeking a new balance [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The city is implementing a series of policies to promote high-quality development in the real estate sector, focusing on stabilizing the market and meeting housing demand through various measures [2][3][5]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The city has released eight policy measures to maintain a stable real estate market, including financial support, tax incentives, and housing subsidies [2]. - A summer housing promotion event is being held, offering a subsidy of 100 yuan per square meter for purchases in specific districts [2]. - The city is enhancing the role of housing provident funds to support home purchases for recent graduates and critical talent, increasing the maximum loan amount by 200,000 yuan [2]. Group 2: Affordable Housing Supply - The city aims to collect 8,000 units of affordable housing by the end of 2025 through various channels, including acquisition and new construction [3]. - The focus is on supporting state-owned enterprises to acquire suitable existing properties for use as affordable housing [3]. - The guidelines for affordable housing emphasize smaller unit sizes, with a preference for units not exceeding 120 square meters [3]. Group 3: Land and Project Support - The city is facilitating land development by allowing early land delivery for projects that meet certain financial criteria [3]. - A coordinated financing mechanism is being established to support real estate projects, particularly those on the "white list" for financing [5]. - The city is enhancing the quality of urban living environments through urban renewal initiatives and the renovation of dilapidated housing [5].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming land auctions in Bengbu, specifically for residential land plots 蚌挂（2025）8 and 蚌挂（2025）9, are pivotal for the city's development, indicating new growth opportunities for the region [1][6]. Group 1: Land Auction Details - 蚌挂（2025）8 is a residential land plot with an area of 78,059.83 square meters, starting price of 24,589 million yuan, and a deposit of 4,918 million yuan. The plot has a maximum building density of 32% and a green space ratio of at least 40% [2][5]. - 蚌挂（2025）9 is another residential plot covering 37,378.41 square meters, starting price of 11,831 million yuan, and a deposit of 2,367 million yuan. It has a maximum building density of 30% and a green space ratio of at least 40% [4][5]. Group 2: Urban Development Context - The land auctions align with Bengbu's overall spatial planning from 2021 to 2035, ensuring that development adheres to ecological and agricultural protection principles while meeting residential needs [6][9]. - The high-tech zone, where these plots are located, is a key growth area for Bengbu, enhancing infrastructure and attracting population and industry, thus furthering urbanization [7][10]. Group 3: Impact on Real Estate Market - The 2025 land supply plan for Bengbu focuses on real estate, with a total of 17 plots covering 1,179 acres, which includes the two residential plots in the high-tech zone, adding new housing stock to the market [11][12]. - The introduction of new residential land is expected to alleviate supply-demand imbalances in the real estate market, stabilize price expectations, and attract competitive developers, thereby improving housing quality [14][15]. Group 4: Transportation and Connectivity - Bengbu is developing a comprehensive transportation network, including high-speed rail and highways, which will enhance connectivity with surrounding cities and increase the city's attractiveness for population and investment [15].