产业经济周报 证券分析师 陈梦洁 资格编号：S0120524030002 邮箱：chenmj3＠tebon.com.cn 周天昊 资格编号： S0120525040002 邮箱：zhouth＠tebon.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 产业经济周报 2025 年 08 月 25 日 [Table_Main] 消费焕新延续，液冷赋能数据中心， 折叠屏或打开成长空间 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：近期产业趋势延续分化格局：新消费板块热度持续传导至 A 股，短期 或受中报扰动出现阶段性调整，中长期主线仍在情绪消费、渠道革新及品牌出海； 高端制造方面，液冷技术成为应对算力与能耗矛盾的关键路径，具备提升效率与降 低能耗的双重价值；硬科技领域，折叠屏手机在价格下探与苹果入局的催化下，有 望带动渗透率提升并利好上游供应链。整体看，消费升级与科技迭代共振，产业机 遇与结构性机会并存。 高端制造看点：数据中心作为现代信息基础设施，其能源消耗问题日益凸显。伴随 人工智能、大数据及云计算等应用加速渗透，能耗持续攀升，对环境与经济均形成 压力，行业可持续发展需求不断增强 ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a significant increase on August 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 2024 high, reaching its highest point in over three years [1] - The market saw a total trading volume exceeding 2.1 trillion yuan, marking the highest level in over five months [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also reached new highs for 2024 [1] Sector Performance - Technology sectors, including optical chips, cultivated diamonds, and liquid-cooled servers, showed strong performance, with the telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics industries leading the gains [2] - The telecommunications sector rose by 4.91%, non-ferrous metals by 2.37%, and electronics by 2.01%, while banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors experienced declines [2] Capital Inflow - There was a notable influx of funds from margin trading, with the A-share margin trading balance reaching 20,261.98 billion yuan, the highest since July 2, 2015 [2] - Since May, the financing balance in A-shares has increased by 2,446.73 billion yuan, indicating a strong capital inflow into the market [2] Market Drivers - The rise in the Shanghai Composite Index is attributed to three main factors: ample liquidity driving market growth, effective policy implementation boosting investor confidence, and reduced external disturbances [2]

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices continued to rise, recording a three-day consecutive increase; the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.45% at 3633.99 points, approaching last week's high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.66% [1] - Total trading volume reached 1.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 143.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3300 stocks rising across the market [1] Sector Performance - The military industry sector was strong throughout the day, with stocks like Inner Mongolia First Machinery, Jieqiang Equipment, and China Shipbuilding hitting the daily limit [1] - PEEK materials and robotics sectors remained active, with stocks such as Zhongxin Fluorine Materials and Xinhan New Materials also hitting the daily limit [1] - The rubber products sector saw gains, with Huami New Materials rising by 30% [1] - The liquid cooling concept surged, with Kexin Innovation Source increasing by 20% [1] - Other sectors with notable gains included electric motors, cultivated diamonds, industrial mother machines, and NVIDIA concepts [1] Declining Sectors - The pharmaceutical sector declined across the board, with hepatitis concepts, traditional Chinese medicine, CRO, and innovative drugs leading the drop; stocks like Qizheng Tibetan Medicine and Hanyu Pharmaceutical were among the biggest losers [1] - The Tibet sector fell sharply, with Tibet Tianlu and Tibet Tourism both hitting the daily limit down [1] - Other sectors with significant declines included chemical pharmaceuticals, biological vaccines, medical devices, and tourism hotels [1] Top Gainers - The aerospace and military industry led the gainers with a 5-day increase of 2.789% [2] - Other notable gainers included motorcycles and heavy machinery, with increases of 4.44% and 3.08% respectively [2] - The coal, industrial machinery, and chemical fiber industries also saw positive performance, with increases of 2.35%, 2.23%, and 2.129% respectively [2]

Group 1 - The A-share cultivated diamond sector showed strong performance at the beginning of trading, with significant gains observed in several companies [1] - Boyun New Materials reached the daily limit increase, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the stock [1] - Other companies such as Sifangda, Huanghe Xuanfeng, Chaohongji, World, Huifeng Diamond, and Power Diamond also experienced upward movement in their stock prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with major indices experiencing slight increases, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid varied sector performances [1][2]. Market Performance - As of the midday close on July 3, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3457.36 points, up 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10490.5 points, up 0.75%, and the ChiNext Index at 2152.54 points, up 1.36% [1][2]. - The overall market breadth was relatively balanced, with the number of stocks rising and falling being approximately equal [2]. Sector Performance - The leading sectors included recombinant proteins, innovative drugs, and CRO (Contract Research Organization), while superconductors, BC batteries, and cultivated diamonds showed weakness [4]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and communications sectors, while outflows were noted in non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and banking sectors [5]. - Specific stocks with significant net inflows included Industrial Fulian (14.98 billion), CATL (9.72 billion), and Luxshare Precision (7.82 billion) [5]. - Conversely, stocks facing notable net outflows included Yuyin Co. (5.52 billion), Northern Copper (5.16 billion), and Hunan Tianyan (3.38 billion) [5]. Institutional Insights - Guoyuan Securities highlighted the significance of including innovative drugs in commercial insurance directories, indicating a strengthening role of commercial insurance in the multi-tiered medical security system, which is expected to create more opportunities for the industry [7]. - CITIC Securities projected steady revenue growth in the computer industry by Q2 2025, with a focus on AI applications and computing power, suggesting investment in AI-related sectors such as management software, medical IT, and cloud services [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of military stocks, technology stocks, and new consumption sectors, indicating a bullish market trend in these areas while banking stocks continue to face downward pressure [1][9]. Military and Technology Stocks - Military stocks experienced significant gains, with military equipment and electronics sectors leading the surge [1]. - Technology stocks also showed strength, particularly in the semiconductor industry, with leading stocks like Haoshanghao (001298) hitting the limit up shortly after market open, marking a four-day consecutive rise [1][10]. - The AI hardware sector continues to thrive, with companies like Xinyisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang seeing sustained increases [1][10]. New Consumption Sector - The new consumption sector is rebounding, with notable performances from the "three sisters" of new consumption in the Hong Kong market, including Laopu Gold, which rose over 16% and reached a historical high [4]. - In the A-share market, the new consumption sector is also active, with significant gains in IP economy and cultivated diamond sectors, particularly stocks like Hangzhou Garden and Kaiying Network [5][6]. - Open Source Securities suggests focusing on four main lines within the new consumption sector: differentiated gold and jewelry brands, retail enterprises adapting to trends, high-quality domestic beauty brands, and differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers [8]. Market Performance - As of the morning close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index saw a rise of 0.93% [1].

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a collective rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.48%, indicating a positive market sentiment despite a slight decrease in trading volume compared to the previous day [1] Market Performance - The three major A-share indices all showed gains: Shanghai Composite Index up 0.48%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.35%, and ChiNext Index up 0.73% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 750.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in sectors such as stablecoin concept stocks, gold stocks, cultivated diamonds, gaming, and banking [1] - Conversely, sectors that experienced declines included steel, complete automobiles, liquor, and electricity [1] Individual Stock Movements - Notable individual stock movements included West Gold hitting the daily limit, Chao Hong Ji rising over 8%, and Zhangqu Technology surging by 13% [1] - On the downside, Benxi Steel fell over 7%, Jianghuai Automobile dropped over 6%, and Shui Jing Fang decreased by over 3% [1] - Overall, more than 3,400 stocks in the market saw an increase [1]

Group 1: Agricultural Sector - The glyphosate sector is experiencing significant growth, with companies like Zhongqi Co. and Guangxin Co. seeing stock surges due to increased export orders following changes in pesticide import policies in major agricultural countries like Brazil and Argentina [3] - Zhongqi Co.'s new glyphosate formulation has a 92% approval rate in the South American market and is 15% cheaper than traditional methods, enhancing its competitive edge [3] - Glyphosate prices are heavily influenced by international grain prices, making it essential to monitor global soybean and corn planting area data for long-term demand indicators [3] Group 2: Dairy Industry - Keta Bio and Junyao Health are emerging as strong players in the dairy sector, with Keta Bio's adult probiotics sales increasing by 80% year-on-year, driven by rising demand for gut health among young people [3] - Junyao Health is focusing on differentiated low-temperature milk products, establishing seven ecological farms in the Yangtze River Delta to ensure freshness and quality [3] - The implementation of new national standards is expected to further consolidate the dairy industry, making companies with resource barriers and niche market positions worthy of observation [3] Group 3: Cultivated Diamond Industry - The cultivated diamond sector is in a penetration breakthrough phase, with domestic penetration rates rising from 6.5% to 9.2%, and prices being one-third of natural diamonds, appealing to Gen Z consumers [4] - Huanghe Xuanfeng has developed mass production technology for 1-5 carat diamond roughs, achieving an 85% yield rate, which is 10 percentage points higher than competitors [4] - Long-term monitoring of equipment localization progress is crucial for cost reduction and capacity expansion in the cultivated diamond industry [4] Group 4: Investment Philosophy - The recent stock surges are not just short-term market trends but reflect underlying long-term investment logic in technology upgrades in agriculture, innovative consumer segments, and domestic manufacturing replacements [4] - Long-term investment is likened to planting trees, emphasizing the importance of selecting the right "seeds" over chasing short-term gains [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective adjustment with all three major indices recording four consecutive declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18% to 3340 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.68% below 2000 points [1][2] - The total market turnover was 10,241 billion, a decrease of 97 billion from the previous day, with over 2,500 stocks in the red [1][2] Sector Performance - The new consumption concept led the market, with sectors such as beverages, dairy, and leisure foods showing strong performance [2] - The pharmaceutical sector was active, with Huason Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit, while the cultivated diamond sector also performed well, with Huanghe Xuanfeng reaching the daily limit [2][4] - The glyphosate, CRO, and sugar substitute concepts saw significant gains, while the precious metals sector declined, led by Chifeng Gold and Western Gold [2] Notable Stocks - In the glyphosate sector, Zhongqi Co. surged by 20.07%, while Zhongnong United and Guangxin Co. both increased by 10.02% [5][4] - The beverage manufacturing sector saw Jin Feng Wine and Junyao Health both hitting the daily limit, with other companies like Xiyang Xiyuan and Huaiqi Mountain also showing strong gains [6][7] - In the pet economy sector, Keta Bio reached the daily limit, and Yinglian Co. increased by 10.03%, indicating a growing trend in pet consumption [9] Innovation and Pharmaceuticals - The innovative drug sector was active, with Sanofi Guojian rising over 15%, and several companies announcing participation in the upcoming ASCO annual meeting to showcase their research [11] - The collaboration between Sanofi and Pfizer on a dual-target drug has heightened expectations for Chinese innovative drug companies to integrate into the global supply chain [11] Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with a lack of sustained upward momentum, but supportive policies for growth and development may provide some stability [16] - Key investment opportunities are identified in high-margin assets, clear technological narratives, and the consumer sector boosted by policy support [16]

Market Overview - On May 27, A-shares experienced a decline, with the robotics and computing power industry chains leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33% to 3335.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.98% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 6260.49 billion yuan for the half-day session [1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 448 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate and quantity tendering method, at an interest rate of 1.40%. The total bid amount was 448 billion yuan, with the same amount being accepted [2] - On the same day, 357 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan [2] Industrial Performance - In April, industrial production showed rapid growth, driven by the implementation of more proactive macro policies, leading to an acceleration in profits for industrial enterprises. The new momentum industries, particularly equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, saw significant profit growth [3] - New consumption concept stocks led the market, with companies like Chuangyuan Co., Keta Bio, and Youyou Food reaching their daily limit [3] Sector Performance - The diamond cultivation sector has gained attention due to its environmental sustainability and cost-effectiveness. China has become the largest producer and processing base for synthetic diamonds, with ongoing technological advancements expected to expand applications in high-end technology fields [4] - The top-performing sectors included diamond cultivation (+3.03%), sandstorm governance (+2.36%), and NMN concept (+1.65%), while sectors like remote office (-1.49%) and PEEK materials (-1.41%) lagged behind [4] Company Insights - Chao Hong Ji, a leading fashion jewelry company, is expected to continue its rapid growth due to strong channel expansion and effective cost control [6] - Mankalon focuses on digital management and targets the young demographic, with expectations for enhanced brand and product strength [6] - Sifangda is implementing a project for the industrialization of functional diamonds, which is anticipated to contribute to performance as production ramps up [6] - Power Diamond holds a leading position in the cultivation diamond and diamond powder sectors, with potential performance recovery as demand in downstream markets increases [7]