Market Overview - In Q1 2026, the equity market faced three significant pressures: margin ratio increase in January, commodity market decline in February, and geopolitical tensions in March, leading to a general decline in market risk appetite[1] - The overall PE ratio of the Wind All A index reached 22.48 times by March 27, nearing the high points of previous bull markets[2] Q2 Outlook - The focus for Q2 is on exploring undervalued sectors, particularly in power equipment and media, with PE percentiles at 67% and 68% respectively, and PEG ratios of 0.91[2] - The agricultural and financial sectors are also highlighted, with PB percentiles below 20% and ROE above 8%, indicating strong fundamentals[2] Risk Factors - Uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments pose risks to market stability[3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a continued emphasis on low-valuation styles due to high overall market valuations and a cautious risk appetite among investors[2] - The strategy includes focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, such as power equipment and media, while being wary of high-valuation sectors like defense and heavy industry[2][24] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the low PE index has consistently outperformed the high PE index since mid-January, indicating a shift towards undervalued stocks[20] - The report also emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation expectations, particularly for sectors like metals and coal, which currently have high PB ratios[28]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1] - Manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, up from 49.0% in the previous month and 49.1% in the same period last year [1] - Non-manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.2% in the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale in January 2026 was 722.08 billion yuan, up from 81.78 billion yuan in the previous month and 705.46 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - M0 growth rate in January 2026 was 2.7% year-on-year, down from 10.6% in the previous month and 17.2% in the same period last year [1] - M1 growth rate in January 2026 was 4.9% year-on-year, down from 6.2% in the previous month and up from 0.4% in the same period last year [1] - M2 growth rate in January 2026 was 9.0% year-on-year, up from 8.2% in the previous month and 7.0% in the same period last year [1] - New RMB loans in January 2026 were 471 billion yuan, up from 22 billion yuan in the previous month and down from 513 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI growth rate in January 2026 was 0.2% year-on-year, the same as in the previous month and down from 0.5% in the same period last year [1] - PPI growth rate in January 2026 was -1.4% year-on-year, up from -2.1% in the previous month and -2.3% in the same period last year [1] - Fixed asset investment in December 2025 decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, down from a 0.5% decline in the previous month and a 3.2% increase in the same period last year [1] - Total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.5% in the previous month and up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1] - Exports in December 2025 increased by 6.60% year-on-year, down from 8.20% in the previous month and 10.67% in the same period last year [1] - Imports in December 2025 increased by 5.70% year-on-year, down from 7.40% in the previous month and up from 0.84% in the same period last year [1] Group 2: Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - On March 2, due to the escalating Iran situation, 12 domestic futures varieties' main contracts hit the daily limit, and precious metals such as gold and silver rose sharply. Exchanges and banks issued risk warnings [2] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged all parties to stop military actions and avoid further escalation of tensions [2] - Due to the recent rise in international oil prices, the premium rates of many on - site crude oil theme funds soared, and some funds issued risk warnings. Two funds will be suspended from trading on March 3 [2] - Affected by multiple factors, the A - share resource sector continued to strengthen, and the configuration value of cyclical varieties was prominent [3] - On March 2, 26 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 41 had negative basis [3] - The China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association and other associations called on the industry to ensure supply and stabilize prices [4] Metals - As international gold prices rose, domestic gold stores suspended selling investment gold bars and switched to selling craft gold bars, which are 200 - 300 yuan more expensive per gram [5] - The Hong Kong MPF Authority is considering allowing MPF to invest in gold ETFs and will review the investment scope this year [5] - On February 27, copper inventory reached a new high in over 11 months, while tin, zinc, aluminum, lead, and nickel inventories decreased [6] - As of March 2, the silver ETF's holdings decreased, and the gold ETF's holdings remained unchanged [6] - Rio Tinto suspended aluminum supply negotiations with Japanese customers due to the Middle East conflict [7] - The Central Bank of Uganda plans to buy 100 kg of gold from March to June [7] - Floods cut off the main copper export channel in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [7] Energy and Chemicals - Japan's economy minister said there was no immediate impact on Japan's power and gas supply from the suspension of Qatar's LNG production [8] - Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs estimated that European natural gas prices could rise by 130% and oil prices by $18 per barrel [8] - Qatar's LNG production suspension caused a significant shock to the European natural gas market, with futures prices rising by up to 50% [8] - Thailand banned oil product exports, launched an energy monitoring center, and took measures to ensure fuel reserves and protect consumers [9] - Russia's LNG exports increased by 5.8% from January to February [10] - The daily crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 4 million barrels [11] - Brazil's oil production in January increased by 14.6% year - on - year [11] Agricultural Products - Argentina's agricultural product export revenue in February decreased by 41% year - on - year [12] - Indonesia raised the export tariff on crude palm oil to 12.5% from March 1 [12] Group 3: Financial News Compilation Open Market - On March 2, the central bank conducted 19 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 19 billion yuan [13] Important News - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to issues such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the so - called missile purchase agreement [14] - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had phone calls with foreign ministers of Iran, Oman, and France, urging to stop military actions [14] - US President Trump said military actions against Iran might last 4 - 5 weeks, and Iran's top security official refused to negotiate [15] - The 14th National People's Congress Fourth Session will hold a press conference on March 4 [15] - The National Development and Reform Commission will strengthen communication with private enterprises [16] - China opposed the UK's sanctions on Chinese enterprises [16] - In 2025, the inter - provincial trade sales in China increased by 4.5% year - on - year [16] - Economists expect China's GDP growth target in 2026 to be around 5%, the deficit rate around 4%, and CPI growth around 2% [17] - Sichuan issued a document to promote rural revitalization [17] - The pilot of local government special bonds' "self - review and self - issuance" advanced steadily [18] - The China Inter - bank Market Dealers Association optimized the issuance process of science and technology innovation bonds [18] - As of the end of February, there were 1446 ETFs in the domestic market [18] - The US government lost a lawsuit, and over $175 billion in illegal tariffs will be refunded [20] - There were bond - related events such as bond suspension, debt restructuring, and redemption [20] - There were overseas credit rating changes for some Chinese enterprises [20] Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was strong, with most bond yields falling, and bond futures rising [21] - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose and some fell, and the real - estate bond index and high - yield urban investment bond index had different performances [21] - The convertible bond index fell, and some convertible bonds had significant gains or losses [22] - Most money market interest rates showed different trends, and some bond issuance had specific yields and multiples [23][24] - European and US bond yields rose [25] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose [27] Research Report Highlights - According to a survey, investors' focus in the bond market is on inflation, AI, and real estate, and the bond market is expected to be volatile [28] - CITIC Construction Investment is bullish on US bonds in the medium - term [28] - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the downward space of certificate of deposit rates is limited, and long - term bond rates may have limited downward space [29] - Huatai Securities believes that the A - share market may be volatile in the short - term but will be determined by policies and industry trends in the medium - term. It gives suggestions on stock and convertible bond investment [29][30] Today's Reminders - Many bonds will be listed, issued, paid, and have principal and interest repaid on March 3 [31] Group 4: Stock Market News - On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell. A - share trading volume reached a one - month high. Resource - related sectors rose, while AI - related and consumer sectors fell [32] - The A - share resource sector continued to strengthen, and the resource price increase trend may continue in March [33] - The Hang Seng Index and related indexes fell, with some sectors performing differently. Southbound funds had net purchases [33]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising prices of agricultural products driven by a combination of global liquidity easing and domestic "anti-involution" policies, suggesting a favorable investment environment in the agricultural sector [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Since 2025, resource price increases have become a significant investment theme, with the Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index and Chemical Industry Index rising by 106.69% and 47.15% respectively over the past year [1][5]. - The expectation of rising agricultural product prices is supported by historical patterns where price increases in resource commodities typically follow a sequence from precious metals to industrial metals, energy, and finally agricultural products [2][6]. - The agricultural sector exhibits cyclical characteristics, with rebounds occurring every 2-3 years, indicating a potential for a new upward cycle as it approaches the three-year mark since the last peak in April 2023 [2][6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Agricultural Sector - The Invesco Great Wall is launching an agricultural-themed ETF, the Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF, which tracks the CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, providing investors with a convenient tool to access this sector [1][3]. - The CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index has shown a long-term annualized return of 11.65% over the past 20 years, outperforming the CSI 300 Index (8.05%) and other industry indices [3][7]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index is 21.31, which is at the 32.30 percentile of the past decade, suggesting a potentially attractive entry point for investors [3][7]. Group 3: Sector Characteristics and Fund Management - The ETF covers key segments of the agricultural value chain, including breeding, planting, feed, and animal health, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 56.99% of the index [3][7]. - The index's lower correlation with mainstream indices like the CSI 300 and ChiNext (0.59 and 0.56 respectively) makes it a favorable diversification tool for investors [3][7]. - Invesco Great Wall is expanding its ETF offerings to meet diverse market demands, indicating a strategic focus on both domestic and international markets [3][7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong performance on the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, with all three major indices closing higher, driven by resource sectors and policy expectations as the Two Sessions approach [3][15]. Market Performance - On February 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87% to 4117 points, the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.36% to 14291 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.99% to 3308 points [3][15]. - The total trading volume for the day reached 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating heightened market activity [3][15]. Sector Analysis - Resource sectors, particularly oil and gas, led the market rally, with multiple oil and gas ETFs hitting the daily limit [4][16]. - In contrast, the film and media sector saw significant declines, with related ETFs dropping over 7% due to disappointing box office performance during the Spring Festival [4][17]. ETF Market Insights - Oil and gas ETFs showed remarkable performance, with several reaching the daily limit and an average increase of around 10% [5][18]. - The Standard & Poor's Oil and Gas ETF recorded a trading volume of 1.117 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 152.76%, reflecting strong market interest in this sector [5][18]. Investment Themes - Analysts suggest that resource products and technology sectors may become the main themes for the spring market, driven by policy expectations and industry trends [3][11]. - The focus on stable growth policies ahead of the Two Sessions is expected to benefit infrastructure and resource sectors [11][24]. Market Sentiment - Despite the overall market rally, there is a notable divergence in sector performance, with technology stocks experiencing mixed results [21][23]. - Southbound capital flows showed a "buy the dip" strategy, with net purchases of 3.131 billion Hong Kong dollars on February 24, indicating continued interest in the market despite fluctuations [22][24].

Market Overview - On February 24, A-shares experienced a collective rise on the first trading day after the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.99% [1] - The total trading volume in the three major markets reached 22,182 billion yuan, with over 4,000 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The oil and gas sector saw significant gains due to escalating geopolitical risks, with multiple stocks, including Zhongman Petroleum, hitting the daily limit [2] - The cultivated diamond sector also performed strongly, with Sifangda reaching a 20% limit up, marking a historical high, while Huifeng Diamond and Power Diamond rose over 10% and 14%, respectively [3][4] Cultivated Diamond Market - According to the report from the Henan Zhongyuan Jewelry Innovation Industry Research Institute, the current market size of cultivated diamonds in China is 14 billion yuan, projected to exceed 102.5 billion yuan by 2030, indicating a rapidly growing market [5] Resource Sector Activity - Resource stocks, including oil, natural gas, and chemicals, were collectively active, with companies like Zhongman Petroleum and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit [6] - Spot gold prices surged to 5,200 USD, continuing an upward trend for four consecutive trading days, influenced by geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a positive start on the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, with overseas markets showing strong performance during the Chinese New Year holiday [1] - The Stone Chemical ETF (159731) rose over 2.7% in early trading, with leading stocks including Huanbang Biological and Chuanfa Longmang [1] - According to Industrial Securities, the global asset increase during the holiday period highlights AI and resource products as focal points, suggesting a high probability window for A-shares post-holiday [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) lacked legal basis, indicating that most tariffs were "unauthorized from the start" [1] - The domestic AI sector is accelerating commercialization with developments in large models and humanoid robots, coinciding with the busy season in March and April, historically linked to rising PPI and improved corporate profitability [1] - The Stone Chemical ETF and its linked funds closely track the CSI Stone Chemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.02% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.43%, indicating a strong potential to benefit from rising resource prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong performance in the market, particularly in the petrochemical sector, with the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index rising over 1% and leading stocks such as Tongkun Co., Ltd., New Fengming, and Baofeng Energy driving gains [1] - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a significant net inflow of funds totaling 94.6642 million yuan over the past five days, indicating strong buying interest [1] - According to CITIC Securities' research report, market sentiment suggests that the year-end rally is likely to continue, although there is an increased risk of short-term technical corrections [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF and its linked funds closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 59.2% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.6% of the index [1] - Resource stocks make up 92.48% of the ETF's composition, positioning them to benefit significantly from the rising prices of resources [1] - The current market phase is characterized by a verification of economic conditions, with previously lagging sectors showing signs of recovery, which is expected to be a key direction for the ongoing year-end rally [1]

Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of cyclical investment is recovering, with indicators showing a positive correlation between stock price movements and recent earnings growth since June, suggesting that market performance is increasingly guided by economic conditions [1] Group 1: Resource Products - Price Increases: Resource products such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals have seen continuous price increases due to tight supply and marginal demand improvement, leading to higher earnings certainty for Q2 [1] - Supply Clearing: Industries like steel, building materials, coal, and chemicals are experiencing accelerated supply reduction, which, combined with demand recovery, is expected to enhance earnings elasticity and reverse industry challenges [2] - Q2 Earnings Clues: Key resource product categories with significant earnings revisions since Q2 include building materials (coatings, glass fiber, cement), chemicals (fertilizers, pesticides), steel (special steel), and non-ferrous metals (nickel, cobalt, gold, copper) [2] Group 2: AI Computing Power - Performance Divergence: Since June, there has been a notable divergence within the AI sector, with upstream hardware (PCB, optical modules) outperforming midstream software services and downstream applications [3] - North American Computing Chain: The North American computing chain, represented by optical modules and PCBs, has shown enhanced earnings certainty, with significant upward revisions in Q2 earnings, contrasting with downward adjustments in domestic computing chains [3] - Earnings as a Key Driver: The performance of various segments within the AI industry has been closely correlated with the extent of Q2 earnings revisions, indicating that earnings certainty is becoming a critical factor in pricing within the tech sector [3]