投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-03-03 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-02-14 | 2026/01 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 72208 | 8178 | 70546 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M0:同比 | % | 2.7 | 10.6 | 17.2 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | ...

2025年来，伴随海外流动性宽松以及国内"反内卷"政策等因素的推动，资源品涨价成为资本市场的一条 重要投资线索。Wind数据显示，截至2月13日，申万有色金属指数和化工行业指数近1年分别上涨 106.69%、47.15%，也带动作为周期资源品价格传导"最后一环"的农产品涨价预期持续发酵。记者发 现，景顺长城正在发行农产品相关主题ETF——农牧渔ETF景顺（认购代码：560213），该产品跟踪中 证全指农牧渔指数，全面网罗农牧渔核心标的，为投资者提供布局农牧渔板块的便捷工具。 涨价周期叠加"反内卷"，有望对农产品价格形成支撑 农产品价格上涨的预期并非空穴来风，背后有着周期更迭的规律。紫金天风期货研究表明，过往的资源 品涨价大多数情况遵循"贵金属先动，再按照从工业金属到能源化工以及农产品"的顺序，往往由农产品 来完成收尾。本轮资源品行情正处于"贵金属领涨、工业金属跟随、能源化工逐渐从底部起势"的阶段， 若涨价潮持续发酵，最终有望传导到农产品。 而说到周期，农业自身也存在明显的周期属性，每隔2-3年会迎来一轮反弹。以中证全指农牧渔指数为 例，在2016年2月至2016年8月、2018年11月至2019年5月、202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong performance on the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, with all three major indices closing higher, driven by resource sectors and policy expectations as the Two Sessions approach [3][15]. Market Performance - On February 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87% to 4117 points, the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.36% to 14291 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.99% to 3308 points [3][15]. - The total trading volume for the day reached 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating heightened market activity [3][15]. Sector Analysis - Resource sectors, particularly oil and gas, led the market rally, with multiple oil and gas ETFs hitting the daily limit [4][16]. - In contrast, the film and media sector saw significant declines, with related ETFs dropping over 7% due to disappointing box office performance during the Spring Festival [4][17]. ETF Market Insights - Oil and gas ETFs showed remarkable performance, with several reaching the daily limit and an average increase of around 10% [5][18]. - The Standard & Poor's Oil and Gas ETF recorded a trading volume of 1.117 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 152.76%, reflecting strong market interest in this sector [5][18]. Investment Themes - Analysts suggest that resource products and technology sectors may become the main themes for the spring market, driven by policy expectations and industry trends [3][11]. - The focus on stable growth policies ahead of the Two Sessions is expected to benefit infrastructure and resource sectors [11][24]. Market Sentiment - Despite the overall market rally, there is a notable divergence in sector performance, with technology stocks experiencing mixed results [21][23]. - Southbound capital flows showed a "buy the dip" strategy, with net purchases of 3.131 billion Hong Kong dollars on February 24, indicating continued interest in the market despite fluctuations [22][24].

| | | 上证指数 科创50 沪深300 上证50 B股指数 | | | | | | | 深正成指 北证50 创业板指 深证综指 成份B指 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上证指数 4117.41 +0.87% | | | | 5.66亿 | | | 深正成指 | 14291.57 +1.36% | | | 7.12亿 | | | 4139.05 | | | | | | 1,40% | 14376.96 | | | | | | 1.96% | | 4120.05 | | | | | | 0.98 % | 14284.70 | | | | | | 1.3196 | | 4101.06 | | | | | | 0.47% | 14192.45 | | | | | | 0.65% | | | | 4082.07 [p]d")ground my while production with man department of might of the ...

2月24日，A股迎来马年首个交易日。在A股春节假期休市期间，境外市场整体行情较为积极，截至2月 23日，欧美主要股指迎普涨行情，国际贵金属、原油价格携手走强。今日早盘，石化ETF（159731）震 荡走高，现涨超2.7%，持仓股和邦生物、川发龙蟒等领涨。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.02%，石油石化行业占比为32.43%，资源股含量达92.48%，有望充分 受益于资源品涨价逻辑。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 兴业证券认为，春节假期全球主要资产上涨，AI与资源品成焦点；节后A股迎高胜率窗口，历史上春节 后叠加全国两会政策期待，指数胜率明显提升。海外方面，据央视新闻报道，美国最高法院以6比3的多 数意见裁定特朗普政府依靠"国际紧急经济权力法"（IEEPA）征收的一揽子全球关税缺乏法律依据，大 部分关税自一开始就"无权征收"；国内AI领域春晚大模型、人形机器人落地加速商业化，3~4月"金三银 四"开工旺季，历史上PPI一季度加速上行，涨价线索将推动企业盈利改善，支撑行情。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong performance in the market, particularly in the petrochemical sector, with the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index rising over 1% and leading stocks such as Tongkun Co., Ltd., New Fengming, and Baofeng Energy driving gains [1] - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a significant net inflow of funds totaling 94.6642 million yuan over the past five days, indicating strong buying interest [1] - According to CITIC Securities' research report, market sentiment suggests that the year-end rally is likely to continue, although there is an increased risk of short-term technical corrections [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF and its linked funds closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 59.2% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.6% of the index [1] - Resource stocks make up 92.48% of the ETF's composition, positioning them to benefit significantly from the rising prices of resources [1] - The current market phase is characterized by a verification of economic conditions, with previously lagging sectors showing signs of recovery, which is expected to be a key direction for the ongoing year-end rally [1]

Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of cyclical investment is recovering, with indicators showing a positive correlation between stock price movements and recent earnings growth since June, suggesting that market performance is increasingly guided by economic conditions [1] Group 1: Resource Products - Price Increases: Resource products such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals have seen continuous price increases due to tight supply and marginal demand improvement, leading to higher earnings certainty for Q2 [1] - Supply Clearing: Industries like steel, building materials, coal, and chemicals are experiencing accelerated supply reduction, which, combined with demand recovery, is expected to enhance earnings elasticity and reverse industry challenges [2] - Q2 Earnings Clues: Key resource product categories with significant earnings revisions since Q2 include building materials (coatings, glass fiber, cement), chemicals (fertilizers, pesticides), steel (special steel), and non-ferrous metals (nickel, cobalt, gold, copper) [2] Group 2: AI Computing Power - Performance Divergence: Since June, there has been a notable divergence within the AI sector, with upstream hardware (PCB, optical modules) outperforming midstream software services and downstream applications [3] - North American Computing Chain: The North American computing chain, represented by optical modules and PCBs, has shown enhanced earnings certainty, with significant upward revisions in Q2 earnings, contrasting with downward adjustments in domestic computing chains [3] - Earnings as a Key Driver: The performance of various segments within the AI industry has been closely correlated with the extent of Q2 earnings revisions, indicating that earnings certainty is becoming a critical factor in pricing within the tech sector [3]