证券研究报告 | 2025年07月31日 氟化工行业：2025 年 7 月月度观察 优于大市 主流制冷剂价格持续上涨，8 月空调排产预期上调 7 月氟化工行情回顾：截至 7 月末，上证综指报 3615.72 点，较 6 月末上涨 4.97%；沪深 300 指数报 4151.24 点，较 6 月末上涨 5.47%；申万化工指数报 3806.19，较 6 月末上涨 8.05%；氟化工指数报 1471.59 点，较 6 月末上涨 6.29%。7 月氟化工行业指数跑输申万化工指数 1.76pct,跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.32pct，跑赢上证综指 0.82pct。据我们编制的国信化工价格指数，截至 2025 年 7 月 30 日，国信化工氟化工价格指数、国信化工制冷剂价格指数分 别报 1129.02、1883.85 点，分别较 6 月底-2.76%、+2.24%。 主流制冷剂 R32 零售报价持续上涨，R227ea 受消防领域打假补库需求增加 报价快速上涨。卓创资讯预计主流制冷剂产品价格稳定增长：8-10 月 R32 均价分别在 5.6/5.7/5.8 万元；R134a 分别在 5.0/5.1/5.2 万元。R22 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月31日 氟化工行业：2025 年 7 月月度观察 优于大市 主流制冷剂价格持续上涨，8 月空调排产预期上调 7 月氟化工行情回顾：截至 7 月末，上证综指报 3615.72 点，较 6 月末上涨 4.97%；沪深 300 指数报 4151.24 点，较 6 月末上涨 5.47%；申万化工指数报 3806.19，较 6 月末上涨 8.05%；氟化工指数报 1471.59 点，较 6 月末上涨 6.29%。7 月氟化工行业指数跑输申万化工指数 1.76pct,跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.32pct，跑赢上证综指 0.82pct。据我们编制的国信化工价格指数，截至 2025 年 7 月 30 日，国信化工氟化工价格指数、国信化工制冷剂价格指数分 别报 1129.02、1883.85 点，分别较 6 月底-2.76%、+2.24%。 主流制冷剂 R32 零售报价持续上涨，R227ea 受消防领域打假补库需求增加 报价快速上涨。卓创资讯预计主流制冷剂产品价格稳定增长：8-10 月 R32 均价分别在 5.6/5.7/5.8 万元；R134a 分别在 5.0/5.1/5.2 万元。R22 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - Supply-side policies are expected to accelerate, focusing on sectors with supply elasticity in the basic chemical industry. The domestic policy emphasizes supply-side reforms, while international raw material costs are rising, leading to capacity exits in European and American chemical companies. In the long term, China's chemical industry has a competitive advantage due to cost and technological advancements, which may reshape the global chemical industry landscape [6][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry News and Event Commentary - The "Three-Year Action Plan for Rectifying the Pesticide Industry" was launched, aiming to improve market order and product quality by addressing issues like illegal production and unfair competition. The goal is to enhance compliance awareness among enterprises and optimize the supply structure in the pesticide industry by the end of 2027 [14]. 2. Chemical Sector Weekly Performance - The CSI 300 index rose by 1.69%, while the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index increased by 4.03%, outperforming the market by 2.34 percentage points. The Shenwan Oil and Petrochemical Index rose by 2.58%, also outperforming the market [19][22]. 3. Key Sub-industry Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with structural supply optimization, such as organic silicon, membrane materials, chlorine-alkali, and dyes. Key companies to watch include Hesheng Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, Dongcai Technology, Zhejiang Longsheng, and Runtu Co. Additionally, for sectors with relatively weak supply-demand dynamics, attention should be on leading companies like Baofeng Energy, Juhua Co., Yangnong Chemical, Guangxin Co., and Runfeng Co. [6][18]. 4. Price Data Tracking - Notable price increases for the week included TDI (East China) at 15.58%, organic silicon DMC at 8.45%, and vitamin E at 6.06%. Conversely, hydrochloric acid saw a significant drop of 56.52% [29][30]. 5. Market Trends and Consumer Demand - New consumer trends are driving demand for health additives and sugar substitutes, with regulatory policies promoting the expansion of the food additive industry. Companies focusing on technology and product differentiation, such as Bailong Chuangyuan and Jinhai Technology, are expected to benefit [7][18]. 6. Industry Data Tracking - The report highlights that the overall self-sufficiency rate of new chemical materials in China is approximately 56%, indicating a significant opportunity for domestic substitution and development in various sectors, including semiconductor materials and high-end engineering plastics [7][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, suggesting that leading companies will benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [4][8]. Core Insights - The chemical sector has shown significant growth, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 3.65% and the Shenwan Chemical Index increasing by 4.03% this week [14][17]. - Key sub-industries such as soda ash, modified plastics, and organic silicon have experienced notable price increases, indicating strong market performance [17][18]. - The report highlights several investment themes, including the competitiveness of domestic tire manufacturers, the potential recovery in consumer electronics, and the resilience of certain cyclical industries [4][5][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.67%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.76% this week [14]. - The basic chemical sector outperformed, with significant gains in various sub-industries, particularly soda ash, which saw a 12.49% increase [17][18]. Key Industry Developments - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [3]. - A new coal-to-natural gas project in Xinjiang has been announced, with a total investment of 15.488 billion yuan, expected to commence production by the end of 2027 [3]. Investment Themes - **Tire Industry**: Domestic tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit from increased demand in the panel supply chain [4]. - **Phosphate and Fluorine Chemicals**: The report suggests that supply constraints and rising demand in the new energy sector will tighten the supply-demand balance, making companies like Yuntianhua and Juhua attractive [5]. - **Vitamin Supply Disruptions**: BASF's announcement regarding supply issues for vitamins A and E is expected to create market imbalances, presenting investment opportunities in companies like Zhejiang Medicine [8].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The new materials industry is becoming a key area for international high-tech competition, with significant support from local governments in Longyan City, Fujian Province [1][7] - Longyan City aims to build a trillion-level industrial cluster in the new materials and new energy sectors, focusing on core common technologies and innovation [1][7] Group 2: Company Developments - Fujian Jingxu Technology Co., Ltd. is set to complete a production line for high-frequency acoustic wave filters, with an investment of 1.68 billion yuan, filling a gap in the domestic market for gallium oxide piezoelectric film materials [1] - Fujian Qianglun New Materials Co., Ltd. has pioneered ultra-fine metal fiber technology, bridging the gap between metal manufacturing and textile materials, with applications in aerospace [2] Group 3: Government Initiatives - Longyan City has implemented targeted support policies for new materials and new energy enterprises, selecting companies based on their possession of "killer" technologies and market potential [2][3] - The Longyan City Science and Technology Bureau has identified 46 key technology enterprises in the new materials and new energy sectors, fostering "invisible champions" and "single champions" [3] Group 4: Research and Development - Longyan City has established multiple open industrial research institutes to enhance public R&D service capabilities, integrating resources from local universities and research institutions [4][5] - The Longyan New Materials and New Energy Industry Research Institute is conducting industry research to promote technology collaboration between academia and enterprises [3][4] Group 5: Market Growth and Investment - In 2023, Longyan City attracted 172 new projects in the new materials and new energy sectors, with a total investment of 65.7 billion yuan [7] - The city currently has 78 large-scale new materials and new energy enterprises, including 47 high-tech companies, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the sector [7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a continued decline in public fund allocation to the chemical industry, with the allocation ratio dropping to 4% in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a historically low level [1][11]. Core Insights - The focus of public funds has shifted towards sectors such as civil explosives, potassium fertilizers, and fluorochemicals, with significant increases in holdings for companies like China National Materials, Guangdong Hongda, and Blue Sky Technology [2][3]. - The polyurethane and tire sectors have seen continuous reductions in holdings, particularly for Wanhua Chemical, due to declining core product prices and a drop in profitability [3][4]. - The report highlights a strong interest in new materials, particularly in the fiberglass sector, driven by high demand in AI applications [3][4]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Allocation in the Chemical Industry - The allocation of public funds to the chemical industry has been on a downward trend since Q2 2022, with a significant drop from 8.5% in Q3 2021 to 4% in Q2 2025 [1][11]. Individual Stock Changes - Key stocks that received increased allocations include China National Materials, Guangdong Hongda, and Blue Sky Technology, while significant reductions were noted for Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical [2][16]. - The top ten stocks by market value in the chemical sector saw a decrease in concentration, with the top 15 companies holding a combined market value of 33.2 billion yuan, down 1.5 percentage points [14][15]. Industry Trends - The civil explosives, potassium fertilizers, and fluorochemical sectors are gaining attention, with the civil explosives sector benefiting from ongoing supply-side reforms and increased demand in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet [3][4]. - The potassium fertilizer market is supported by significant price increases in contracts signed in mid-June, while fluorochemicals are experiencing price rises due to quota implementations [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with fundamental support, such as potassium fertilizers and fluorochemicals, while also highlighting the importance of domestic demand in the civil explosives sector amid global trade uncertainties [4][5]. - New materials, particularly those related to AI applications, are recommended for investment consideration, alongside traditional cyclical sectors showing positive supply-side changes [4][5].

◎记者 胡嘉树 随着上市公司半年度业绩预告陆续发布，各细分行业上半年经营图景逐渐明晰。据上海证券报记者统 计，截至7月23日晚，已有938家上市公司披露半年度业绩预告，其中496家公司实现归母净利润同比增 长（不含扭亏为盈），占比达52.88%。 从行业来看，有色金属、基础化工、生物医药等行业公司上半年业绩表现亮眼，多家公司业绩预增幅度 超过100%。从业绩驱动因素来看，供需关系改变、市场需求旺盛带动细分行业公司产品价格明显上 涨，由此大幅提振公司业绩。 量价齐升 有色金属公司业绩亮丽 农药领域上市公司业绩亮眼。先达股份预计上半年实现净利润1.30亿元至1.50亿元，同比增长2443.43% 至2834.73%。公司表示，业绩大幅增长，得益于公司主打产品烯草酮的市场售价上涨，带动产品毛利 率的增长，公司创制产品吡唑喹草酯为毛利贡献了新的增长点，以及公司不断强化成本管控等。 类似的还有苏利股份，公司预计上半年实现净利润7200万元至8600万元，同比增长1008.39%至 1223.91%。由于主要产品杀虫剂及杀菌剂量价齐升，利民股份预计上半年实现归母净利润2.60亿元至 2.80亿元，同比增长719.25%至 ...

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, Baotou's GDP reached 232.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0%, outperforming the national growth rate of 5.3% and the regional rate of 5.4% by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points respectively [1] - The contribution rates to economic growth from the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 0.8%, 60.7%, and 38.5% respectively, with the secondary industry showing a significant increase of 9.6% [1] Industrial Development - Baotou has four trillion-yuan industries: rare earth, crystalline silicon photovoltaic, steel, and aluminum, with significant growth in rare earth (16.7%), crystalline silicon photovoltaic (14.1%), and onshore wind power equipment (32.6%) [2] - The industrial added value of Baotou's new industries, including fluorochemical, carbon fiber, and hydrogen energy storage, grew by 12.5%, slightly above the overall industrial growth rate [2] Investment Trends - Investment in the wind power industry increased by 300% year-on-year, contributing 12.0 percentage points to total investment growth, while investment in the rare earth industry surged by 93.4%, adding 2.9 percentage points [3] - Baotou aims to achieve a total GDP of around 500 billion yuan by the end of the year, marking a significant step towards reaching its historical peak [2]

Economic Performance - Baotou's GDP for the first half of the year reached 232.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0%, surpassing national (5.3%) and regional (5.4%) averages by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points respectively [2] - The GDP composition by industry shows the primary sector at 2.2 billion yuan (4.9% growth), secondary sector at 109 billion yuan (9.6% growth), and tertiary sector at 121.08 billion yuan (4.9% growth), with respective contributions to economic growth of 0.8%, 60.7%, and 38.5% [2] Industrial Growth - The industrial output value in Baotou increased by 12.3% year-on-year, significantly higher than the national (6.4%) and regional (7.1%) averages, marking 58 consecutive months of double-digit growth [3] - Key industries include rare earth, crystalline silicon photovoltaic, steel, and aluminum, with respective growth rates of 16.7%, 14.1%, and 32.6% for rare earth, crystalline silicon photovoltaic, and onshore wind power equipment [3] Investment Trends - Baotou is focusing on wind power and rare earth industries, with wind power investments increasing by 300% year-on-year and rare earth investments growing by 93.4% [4] - The city aims to achieve an economic total of around 500 billion yuan by the end of the year, indicating a significant step towards reaching its historical peak [4] Strategic Transition - Baotou is actively seeking a "second growth curve" by transforming its resource-based economy, leveraging its rich resources and financial strength [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has reported a significant increase in profits due to rising refrigerant prices and a gradual recovery in specialty product orders, with Q2 2025 performance exceeding expectations [8] - The integration of Sinochem Blue Sky has enhanced the company's profitability, and the refrigerant business is expected to provide earnings elasticity [8] - The company is expanding its high-end chemical materials into consumer markets, which is anticipated to drive new growth [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 15,666 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.2% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated at 1,606 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 52.4% [7] - Earnings per share for 2025 is forecasted to be 1.24 yuan, with a gross margin of 26.1% [7] Performance Highlights - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 5.90-6.50 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59-76% [8] - In Q2 2025, the estimated net profit is projected to be 4.05-4.65 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 119-151% [8] - The average prices of key refrigerants have increased significantly, contributing to the company's strong performance [8] Market Comparison - The company's market capitalization is 27,425 million, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.9 [2] - The stock has shown a price range of 35.33 to 23.57 over the past year, indicating volatility [2] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on enhancing its competitive advantage through integrated operations and ongoing project developments [8] - Key projects include the establishment of a high-performance civil aviation tire production line and advancements in fluoropolymer and lithium battery materials [8]