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油脂油料早报-20251126
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:05
油 脂 基 差 : 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯,我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正,研究方法专业审慎,分析结论合理,但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考,不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据,客户应当自主做出期货交易决策,独立承担期货交 易后果,凡据此入市者,我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权,不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等,我们均不承担任何责任。 油 脂 油 料 盘 面 价 差 : 蛋 白 粕 基 差 : 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/26 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 : 10月9日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增78.64万吨,一如预期 10月9日止当周,美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增78.5万吨,较之前一 ...
Mhy20251117油脂晚评:豆油为何相对坚挺?油粕比进一步走强
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 10:42
Market Overview - The USDA's November supply and demand report indicates that the expected soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season is 81.1 million acres, with a harvest area of 80.3 million acres and a yield of 53 bushels per acre, leading to an estimated production of 4.253 billion bushels, a decrease from the previous month's estimate of 4.301 billion bushels [1] - NOPA's monthly report predicts that U.S. soybean processing in October will reach 209.522 million bushels, a 5.9% increase from September and a 4.8% increase from October 2024, potentially setting a new monthly record [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports for the first half of November are reported to have decreased significantly, with AmSpec reporting a 10% drop and SGS reporting a 44.9% decrease compared to the previous month [2][3] Production and Export Forecasts - Industry analyst Thomas Mielke forecasts Indonesia's palm oil production for 2026 to be 49 million tons, slightly down from 49.4 million tons in 2025, while Malaysia's production is expected to decrease from 19.86 million tons in 2025 to 19.5 million tons in 2026 [3] - Dorab Mistry anticipates a global palm oil production increase of 1.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with total vegetable oil supply rising by 4.2 million tons and demand increasing by 6 million tons [3] - Canada's canola seed exports have decreased by 35.67% to 121,200 tons as of November 9, with a year-on-year decline of 54.10% [3] Pricing and Market Dynamics - Malaysia has set the reference price for palm oil at 4,206.38 ringgit per ton for December, with an export tax rate of 10% [3] - The market for soybean oil remains strong, driven by the performance of canola oil and high import costs, which support soybean oil prices despite a pullback in soybean prices [6]
油脂油料早报-20251117
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 02:12
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest information on the supply and demand of major oilseeds and oils in the 2025/26 period, including data on soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, as well as the expected trend of U.S. soybean crushing volume and inventory [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual U.S. Soybean Information - The estimated production for the 2025/26 U.S. soybean season is 4.253 billion bushels, down from the September estimate of 4.301 billion bushels - The estimated planting area is 81.1 million acres, the same as the September estimate - The estimated harvested area is 80.3 million acres, consistent with the September estimate - The estimated yield per acre is 53 bushels, down from the September estimate of 53.5 bushels - The estimated export volume is 1.635 billion bushels, down from the September estimate of 1.685 billion bushels - The estimated ending stocks are 290 million bushels, down from the September estimate of 300 million bushels [1] 2025/26 Annual Global Soybean Information - Brazil's estimated soybean production is 175 million tons, the same as the September estimate, and the estimated export volume is 112.5 million tons, up from the September estimate of 112 million tons - Argentina's estimated soybean production is 48.5 million tons, the same as the September estimate, and the estimated export volume is 8.25 million tons, up from the September estimate of 6 million tons - China's estimated soybean imports are 112 million tons, the same as the September estimate - Global estimated soybean production is 421.75 million tons, down from the September estimate of 425.87 million tons, and the estimated ending stocks are 121.99 million tons, down from the September estimate of 123.99 million tons [1] U.S. October Soybean Crushing Volume - The estimated U.S. soybean crushing volume in October is 209.522 million bushels, an increase of 5.9% from September's 197.863 million bushels and 4.8% from October 2024's 199.943 million bushels, setting a new record high [1] U.S. October Soybean Oil Inventory - The estimated U.S. soybean oil inventory in October is 1.257 billion pounds, an increase of 1.1% from the end - of - September inventory of 1.243 billion pounds and 17.0% from October 2024's 1.074 billion pounds [1] 2025/26 Annual Global Rapeseed Information - Global estimated rapeseed production is 92.273 million tons, an increase of 6.274 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 11.336 million tons, an increase of 1.504 million tons year - on - year - Global estimated rapeseed oil production is 35.009 million tons, an increase of 0.873 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 3.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.016 million tons year - on - year - Global estimated rapeseed meal production is 50.005 million tons, an increase of 0.949 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 1.541 million tons, an increase of 0.153 million tons year - on - year - Canada's estimated rapeseed export volume is 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.631 million tons year - on - year; the estimated rapeseed oil export volume is 3.375 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons year - on - year; the estimated rapeseed meal export volume is 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.299 million tons year - on - year [1] Malaysia Palm Oil Export - Malaysia's palm oil product export volume from November 1 - 15 is 728,995 tons, a decrease of 15.5% compared to the same period last month [1] Indonesia Palm Oil Production - Indonesia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to increase by 3 - 4%, lower than this year's estimated growth rate of 4 - 7%, and the 2025 palm oil export is expected to increase by 6 - 7% [1] Spot Prices - The report provides spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 10 - 14, 2025 [2]
油脂油料产业日报-20251112
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 11:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a low - level oscillatory consolidation. After short - term consolidation, there is a need to rebound to 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit. However, beware of the risk of a technical decline due to concerns about slow exports and high seasonal production, with a possible second dip to 4,000 ringgit for support [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in an oscillatory rebound. Driven by the continuous rebound of soybean and rapeseed oils, it may follow the upward trend and test the annual - line resistance at 8,900 yuan, and may briefly break through to fill the gap around 8,950 yuan. But it may also follow the decline to seek support at 8,500 yuan if Malaysian palm oil has a second dip to 4,000 ringgit [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil: Due to the swelling of soybean meal warehouses, the recent factory operating rate has decreased, resulting in reduced soybean oil output and inventory. The recent rebound of soybean oil and the "buy - on - rising" psychology of some traders have boosted the futures market. However, the limited fluctuations of international related varieties have restricted the increase of Dalian soybean oil. The upper pressure of the CBOT soybean oil January contract is around 8,350 yuan on the daily upper - track. If the USDA monthly report fails to boost CBOT soybeans and soybean oil, CBOT soybeans may回调, dragging down Dalian soybean oil [4]. Oilseeds - Soybean Meal - Futures: Although China has made moderate purchases of US soybeans, the continuous poor crushing profit of oil mills has led to less than 50% of the ship - buying progress from December to February. The low crushing profit provides bottom support for prices, but the continuous increase of short positions by COFCO restricts the upward space. It is expected that Dalian soybean meal will remain oscillating in the range of 3,030 - 3,070 yuan in the short term [13]. - Spot: The fixed - price of oil mills remains stable, and the near - month basis has been partially reduced by 10 yuan. The news of Cofco's reserve rotation has affected market sentiment, and the downstream purchasing rhythm is slow. Some make moderate replenishments before the release of the US agricultural report. The short - term spot price is expected to be sorted out in the range of 3,000 - 3,250 yuan/ton [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oil - Fat Price and Spread - **Month - to - month and variety - to - variety spreads**: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. have different price changes. For example, P 1 - 5 is - 84 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 18 yuan, and Y - P 01 is - 532 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 70 yuan [5]. - **Palm oil prices**: Palm oil 01 is 8,744 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.3%, BMD palm oil main contract is 4,123 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.34%, etc [5]. - **Soybean oil prices**: Soybean oil 01 is 8,288 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.16%, CBOT soybean oil main contract is 51.04 cents/pound with an increase of 1.01%, etc [9]. Oilseed Price and Spread - **Futures prices**: For example, the closing price of bean粕01 is 3,059 with an increase of 5 and a rise - rate of 0.16%, and the closing price of菜粕01 is 2,494 with a decrease of 6 and a decline - rate of - 0.24% [14]. - **Price spreads**: M01 - 05 is 218 with a daily decrease of 16, RM01 - 05 is 79 with a daily decrease of 20, etc [15].
油脂油料板块大面积飘红 豆一主力涨近2%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-06 04:06
Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed significant gains on November 6, with the main soybean futures rising nearly 2% [1] - The main contracts for various oilseed products experienced mixed performance, with some increasing while others, like peanuts, saw a slight decline [1] Price Movements - Soybean oil futures opened at 8138.00 and closed at 8120.00, while palm oil opened at 8582.00 and closed at 8618.00 [2] - The main contracts for canola meal and soybean meal also showed upward trends, with canola meal rising to 2547.00 and soybean meal to 3073.00 [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of November 5, the number of warehouse receipts for canola oil decreased by 702 to 8738, while palm oil receipts increased by 650 to 650 [3] - Soybean meal receipts decreased by 210 to 42122, and soybean oil receipts decreased by 200 to 27444 [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis for canola oil was reported at 302, with a basis rate of 3.10%, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Other products like soybean and palm oil also showed positive basis values, reflecting a similar trend in the market [4]
油脂油料板块多数飘红 菜籽粕主力涨超4%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-03 05:07
Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed a positive trend on November 3, with the main contract for rapeseed meal rising over 4% [1] - The main contracts for palm oil and soybean meal also experienced increases, while soybean oil saw a slight decline [1] Price Movements - Rapeseed meal main contract rose by 4.14% to 2489.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil main contract increased by 1.41% to 8676.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal main contract went up by 1.60% to 3053.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil main contract decreased by 0.56% to 8106.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Warehouse Data - As of October 31, the warehouse receipts for soybean oil remained stable at 27,644 lots - The warehouse receipts for soybean one increased by 48 lots to 7,238 lots - The warehouse receipts for soybean meal remained unchanged at 42,332 lots [3] Basis Data - The phenomenon of "backwardation" was observed in several contracts, where spot prices exceeded futures prices - For example, the basis for rapeseed oil was 284 CNY with a basis rate of 2.91% - The basis for rapeseed meal was 103 CNY with a basis rate of 4.13% [3]
油脂油料板块“万红丛中一点绿” 油菜籽、棕榈油涨逾1%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-05 05:10
Core Insights - The domestic oilseed and oil futures market showed mixed performance on September 5, with canola and palm oil prices rising over 1% while soybean meal experienced a slight decline [1][2] Price Movements - Canola futures rose by 1.57% to 5225.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil futures increased by 1.34% to 9502.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal futures decreased by 0.10% to 3060.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil futures rose by 0.84% to 8418.00 CNY/ton [1] Futures Market Data - The opening and closing prices for various contracts on September 5 were as follows: - Soybean oil: Opened at 8340.00 CNY, closed at 8348.00 CNY - Palm oil: Opened at 9382.00 CNY, closed at 9376.00 CNY - Canola oil: Opened at 9725.00 CNY, closed at 9713.00 CNY - Soybean meal: Opened at 3043.00 CNY, closed at 3063.00 CNY - Canola meal: Opened at 2514.00 CNY, closed at 2524.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of September 4, warehouse receipts showed the following changes: - Soybean oil: Increased by 1284 contracts to 16344 contracts - Palm oil: Increased by 200 contracts to 639 contracts - Canola oil: Increased by 235 contracts to 6879 contracts - Soybean meal: Increased by 3750 contracts to 19375 contracts - Canola meal: Decreased by 210 contracts to 4846 contracts [3] Basis Data - The basis data as of September 4 indicated a phenomenon of "inverted futures" for several contracts, where spot prices exceeded futures prices: - Canola oil: Spot price 9858.33 CNY, futures price 9713 CNY, basis 145 CNY - Canola meal: Spot price 2631.67 CNY, futures price 2524 CNY, basis 107 CNY - Palm oil: Spot price 9400 CNY, futures price 9376 CNY, basis 24 CNY - Soybean one: Spot price 4305 CNY, futures price 3966 CNY, basis 339 CNY - Soybean meal: Spot price 3084 CNY, futures price 3063 CNY, basis 21 CNY - Soybean oil: Spot price 8428 CNY, futures price 8348 CNY, basis 80 CNY [4]
油脂周报:美国SRE裁决出炉,油脂维持震荡偏强-20250825
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term palm oil: 7 - month Malaysia palm oil inventory accumulation was less than expected, and it is expected to continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in August. Indonesia's production increased significantly in June, but the inventory remained low, and the price was firm. The short - term market may experience a callback due to weakened sentiment, but the callback range is expected to be limited, maintaining a buy - on - dips strategy [4][27]. - Short - term soybean oil: The US SRE application ruling has limited impact on the demand for biofuels. August is the critical growth period for US soybean pod setting. Weather conditions in August need to be closely monitored. If the weather is unfavorable, there is a risk of yield decline. There are rumors of domestic soybean oil exports. Supported by factors such as US biodiesel, soybean oil has strong support at the bottom and is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term [4][22][27]. - Short - term rapeseed oil: The domestic rapeseed oil fundamentals have not changed much, with a supply - exceeding - demand pattern continuing. However, rapeseed oil inventory is gradually decreasing slightly, and there is still support at the bottom [4][25][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Core Events & Market Review - Palm oil production and inventory: SPPOMA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 0.3% month - on - month, while MPOA estimates a 3% increase. Gapki data shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in June increased by 16% to 529 million tons, and inventory decreased to 253 million tons [4][8][12]. - US SRE application ruling: Among 175 SRE applications, 63 (36%) got full exemption, 77 (44%) got partial exemption, 28 (16%) were rejected, and 7 (4%) did not meet the exemption conditions. The total SRE exemption volume from 2016 - 2024 reached 5.34 billion RIN [13]. 3.2 International Market - Malaysia palm oil: It is estimated that the production in August will be around 1.88 million tons. The export in August was average, and the inventory is expected to increase to 2.2 - 2.3 million tons. The CPO spot price is oscillating strongly around 4,400 ringgit, and the later decline space may be limited [8]. - Indonesia palm oil: The production in June increased significantly, and the inventory continued to decrease. The annual production is expected to increase by more than 2 million tons year - on - year. The CPO tender price is oscillating strongly, and the inventory is expected to remain below 3 million tons in the next few months [12]. 3.3 Domestic Market - Domestic soybean oil: As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory was 1.1427 million tons, with a slight increase. The import volume of soybeans in August and September is expected to be 10 million tons per month on average, and the inventory will continue to accumulate. However, with factors such as reduced soybean arrivals and export rumors, there may be a slight inventory reduction later. Supported by US biodiesel, it is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend [22]. - Domestic palm oil: As of August 15, 2025, the commercial inventory was 617,300 tons, with an increase of 2.92%. The import profit has improved, and the number of purchases has increased. The fundamentals are good, and it is advisable to buy on dips [19]. - Domestic rapeseed oil: As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 660,000 tons, showing a continuous marginal decline. The import profit has an expanded deficit, and there are rumors of contract cancellations. The spot market is weak, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [25]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral strategy: Short - term oils may experience a callback, and it is advisable to buy on dips after the callback [29]. - Arbitrage strategy: Consider doing a positive spread on P1 - 5 after the callback [29]. - Option strategy: Stay on the sidelines [29].
菜籽类市场周报:反倾销初裁扰动,菜系品种剧烈波动-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 09:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, the report suggests a bullish approach. Internationally, good weather in most areas of Canadian rapeseed crops boosts the prospects of a bumper harvest, while China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may affect its exports and put pressure on prices. Domestically, it's the off - season for oil consumption, with ample vegetable oil supply. However, the low operating rate of oil mills reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply pressure. The anti - dumping measures further weaken long - term supply. The market fluctuates greatly due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling [7][8]. - For rapeseed meal, the report recommends a bullish mindset and suggests paying attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The US 2025/26 soybean harvest area is expected to decrease, reducing production and ending stocks. Domestically, the high operating rate of oil mills and the accumulation of soybean meal inventory suppress the rapeseed meal market. But less rapeseed arrives in the near - term, and it's the peak season for aquaculture, increasing the demand for rapeseed meal. The anti - dumping measures also weaken long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Bullish participation [7] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 9757 yuan/ton, an increase of 196 yuan/ton from the previous week. The total open interest was 296,496 lots, an increase of 116,426 lots from last week [8][16]. - Market Outlook: International factors include good weather in Canada and China's anti - dumping measures. Domestically, it's the off - season for oil consumption, but low mill operating rates, fewer rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures ease supply pressure. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping ruling [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Bullish thinking, pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [10] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 2546 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. The total open interest was 448,610 lots, an increase of 12,773 lots from the previous week [11][16]. - Market Outlook: The US soybean harvest area decrease affects the market. Domestically, high mill operating rates and soybean meal inventory suppress the market, but less near - term rapeseed arrival, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures support it. However, the substitution of soybean meal weakens demand. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping ruling [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Open Interest**: Rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal futures both rose first and then fell. Rapeseed oil's total open interest increased by 116,426 lots to 296,496 lots, and rapeseed meal's increased by 12,773 lots to 448,610 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: For rapeseed oil, the top 20 net positions changed from net long (+21,321) to net short (-2,284). For rapeseed meal, it changed from net long (+22,737) to net short (-17,470) [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: Rapeseed oil had 3,487 registered warehouse receipts, and rapeseed meal had 9,821 [27][28]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: In Jiangsu, the rapeseed oil spot price was 9,870 yuan/ton, and the basis was +113 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu Nantong, the rapeseed meal price was 2,590 yuan/ton, and the basis was +44 yuan/ton [37][43]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +165 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +59 yuan/ton, also at a medium level [49]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal for the 01 contract was 3.83, and the average spot price ratio was 3.81 [52]. - **Price Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals**: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,223 yuan/ton, with relative volatility this week. The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 297 yuan/ton, narrowing this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 591 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 490 yuan/ton as of Thursday [62][68]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Inventory and Import Forecast**: As of August 8, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 150,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 were 200,000 tons, 570,000 tons, and 430,000 tons respectively [74]. - **Supply - Import Pressing Profit**: As of August 14, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was +863 yuan/ton [78]. - **Supply - Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 32nd week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 62,000 tons, with an operating rate of 15.17% [82]. - **Supply - Monthly Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 184,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 150,900 tons [86]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 773,000 tons, a decrease of 1.70% from last week. In June 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 150,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.67% and a month - on - month increase of 39,100 tons [91]. - **Demand - Consumption and Production of Edible Vegetable Oil**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 4.769 million tons, and the catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan [95]. - **Demand - Weekly Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 9.53% from last week [99]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Weekly Inventory**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 32.61% from last week [103]. - **Supply - Import Volume**: In June 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 270,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.17% and a month - on - month increase of 75,600 tons [107]. - **Demand - Monthly Feed Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons [111]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options fluctuated up and down. As of August 15, the implied volatility was 24.73%, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [116].
油脂油料早报-20250805
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 03:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending July 31, 2025, was higher than expected, while the export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans for the current crop year was higher than the same period last year [1]. - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the US soybean good and excellent rate was 69%, in line with expectations. The flowering rate and pod - setting rate of US soybeans showed different trends compared with the previous week and the same period last year [1]. - StoneX predicted that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous year. The estimated production of Brazil's second - quarter corn in the 2024/25 season was also raised by 3.2% [1]. - In July 2025, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% to 858,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, reaching a three - year high. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons. The total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports in July 2025 decreased by 25.01% compared with the previous month [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **US Soybean Export Inspection**: In the week ending July 31, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 612,539 tons, higher than the market forecast of 250,000 - 460,000 tons. The previous week's revised volume was 427,734 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume for the current crop year was 47,834,010 tons, compared with 43,037,528 tons in the same period last year. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons [1]. - **US Soybean Crop Growth**: As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the US soybean good and excellent rate was 69%, the same as the market expectation, down from 70% the previous week and up from 68% in the same period last year. The flowering rate was 85%, up from 76% the previous week, the same as the same period last year and slightly lower than the five - year average. The pod - setting rate was 58%, up from 41% the previous week, slightly higher than the same period last year and equal to the five - year average [1]. - **Brazil's Crop Production Forecast**: StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous year due to increased planting area and crop yield. It also raised the estimated production of Brazil's second - quarter corn in the 2024/25 season by 3.2% to 111.7 million tons [1]. India's Edible Oil Imports - **Palm Oil**: In July 2025, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% to 858,000 tons, lower than the 11 - month high in June [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: India's soybean oil imports in July 2025 increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, reaching a three - year high. The increase was due to the delayed shipments in June being unloaded in July [1]. - **Sunflower Oil**: India's sunflower oil imports in July 2025 decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons [1]. - **Total Edible Oil**: The total edible oil imports in India in July 2025 increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons, the highest level since November last year [1]. Malaysia's Palm Oil Exports - Malaysia's palm oil product exports in July 2025 were 896,362 tons, a 25.01% decrease compared with 1,195,265 tons in the previous month [1]. Price and Basis Information - **Spot Prices**: The report provided the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 29 to August 4, 2025 [1]. - **Basis**: The report presented the basis data of protein meals (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in different months and regions, as well as the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil in South China [1][2][3].