Yields were mixed across the Treasury curve on Friday after a big safe-haven rally for Government debt last week. Maturities from one year to the 10-year note saw continued buying, while we observed some mild selling at the shortest T-bill maturities and on the 20- and 30-year long maturity bonds on Friday. In short, it was a mixed and volatile week, with shifting data points and political uncertainty creating a market that was both responsive and unpredictable. The overall result was near flat for the week ...

Berkshire Hathaway stock was just downgraded by equity research analyst Meyer Shields.Warren Buffett is one of the most recognized and celebrated personalities in modern finance. During the past 60 years, he has helped build Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A +1.14%) (BRK.B +1.30%) into a investment conglomerate spanning various industries -- consumer goods, financial services, infrastructure, energy, and much more.Despite a long-term track record of success, one analyst on Wall Street sees trouble ahead for Berkshi ...

消费场景加快创新，便民服务与文旅融合提速。全省累计打造140个商圈、116条商业步行街，贵阳市青云市集等成为热门打卡 地。围绕"一老一小"需求新增便民网点，推动"卖酒"向"卖生活方式"转型。离境退税政策落地后，境外旅客购物便利度显著提 升。县域商业体系持续完善，物流配送短板加快补齐，消费新业态试点城市申报工作有序推进。 为进一步提振消费，贵州推出四项具体举措：一是延续以旧换新政策，优化汽车置换补贴流程，取消地域限制；二是开展新车 购新促销，对10万元以下、10万—20万元、20万元以上新车分别补贴3000元、4000元、5000元；三是出台餐饮、商超、批发、 住宿等行业支持政策，建立三级帮扶机制；四是强化部门联动，定期协调解决企业困难，推动政策落地见效。 记者 刘云嵩 贵州省围绕群众品质生活需求，落实国家补贴政策，持续推进汽车、家电、家居等品类以旧换新。截至11月7日，全省累计推动 消费者置换汽车28.86万辆、家电数码家居377.5万件、电动自行车8.11万辆，带动相关消费497.62亿元。汽车置换更新申请量位 居全国第7，资金兑换率居全国第2。通讯器材类和日用品类限上零售额分别增长42.6%和15.6%。 ...

Europe Credit Research 04 November 2025 J P M O R G A N Sector Review How should investors position into 1H26? In our view, investors are not just suffering from recession fatigue but full blown recession exhaustion. We have had four scares in as many years - including the energy crisis after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the regional banking crisis in 2023 with the collapse of SVB and Credit Suisse, the 'Sahm rule' trigger in 2024 with the US unemployment rate rising by 0.6% from the lows, and t ...

The week was marked by significant market fluctuations, debate over data centers, and excessive valuation of tech stocks, which impacted the weekly performance of all major indices, pushing them into the red. The S&P 500 was down 1.6% over the week, experiencing significant losses during early trading hours on Friday due to faltering tech stocks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite suffered more and declined 3% this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a 1.2% decline over 5 days, with the Russell ...

Labor Market Overview - The US job market is currently uncertain due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has resulted in a lack of official job reports and data, leaving investors and officials without clear insights into hiring, wages, or participation rates [1] - Private data indicates that while the labor market is holding up, it is losing momentum as layoffs increase and confidence declines [2] Job Creation and Sectors - According to ADP, private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, marking the first monthly gain since July, but this is significantly lower than earlier in the year. The strongest hiring was observed in trades, transportation, and utilities, while professional services and information sectors experienced job losses [5] - Economic strategist Hardika Singh noted that job creation is not predominantly coming from AI-related industries, which is surprising given the current investor focus on AI as a growth driver [6] Layoffs and Economic Impact - Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported over 153,000 job cuts announced in October, the highest for that month since 2003, attributed to cost-cutting, AI adoption, and overhiring during the pandemic [7] - A total of over 1.1 million layoffs have been announced this year, representing a 44% increase from 2024, with the tech and retail sectors leading these reductions, including significant layoffs from companies like Amazon, Target, and UPS [8]

Core Insights - The logistics sector has seen significant engagement from investors, particularly in the ASEAN and US markets, highlighting its growth potential and diversification opportunities [1] Group 1: Investment Focus - The company has diversified its investment portfolio across various sectors, including banking, telecommunications, logistics, and hotels, indicating a strategic approach to risk management and capital allocation [1] - The entry into the US market in 2020 reflects a growing interest in international investments, particularly in sectors like banks, hotels, and logistics [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The popularity of insurance companies in the Philippines since 2014 suggests a shift in investment preferences among local investors, moving towards more diversified financial products [1] - The trend of using platforms like Seeking Alpha for market analysis indicates a growing reliance on data-driven insights for investment decisions, enhancing the understanding of both local and international markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Retail Sector ETF (XRT) is currently experiencing a bearish phase despite the broader market reaching new highs, indicating caution for investors in the retail sector [1][2][3]. Technical Analysis - XRT broke below the 50-day moving average (DMA) in early October, signaling potential weakness in the retail sector [1]. - As of late November, XRT is approaching the 200-DMA, which is a critical support level [4][6]. - On the weekly chart, XRT remains above the 50-week moving average, suggesting that the correction may be nearing its end [5]. - Momentum indicators show support at the 200-DMA, but a break below this level would warrant increased caution [7]. Long-term Trends - The price of XRT is currently above the 23-month moving average, indicating that the retail sector remains in a bull trend [10]. - Historical analysis shows that if the price remains above both the 23-month and 80-month moving averages, the market is in a strong secular bull cycle [16]. - A failure to hold above the 23-month moving average while still above the 80-month would signal a warning phase, similar to past mid-cycle corrections [16]. Market Sentiment - Buyers are still in control of the broader market, but short-term pressures from sellers or profit-taking are evident [11]. - The current environment is characterized as a "buy-the-dip in a long-term uptrend," provided that the ETF maintains its position above weekly and monthly support levels [12]. - If XRT can reclaim the 50-DMA, it may resume upward momentum [13].

Core Insights - Several companies are competing to achieve a $1 trillion market cap, driven by strong fundamentals and advancements in AI, automation, and digital infrastructure Group 1: Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) - Oracle has a current market capitalization of $682.08 billion and needs to increase by approximately $317.92 billion, a 46.61% growth, to reach $1 trillion [2] - The company reported $14.9 billion in revenue for its latest quarter, with cloud services growing 28% year-over-year and remaining performance obligations (RPO) reaching $455 billion, indicating strong demand [3] - Oracle's strategic initiatives include launching its AI Data Platform and AI Database 26AI, and forming partnerships with Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure, enhancing its position in the enterprise AI market [4] - A reported $20 billion deal with Meta and a partnership with AMD for deploying GPUs for AI workloads further bolster Oracle's growth potential [4] - As of the last market session, ORCL stock was trading at $239, down 1.86%, but has gained 44% year to date [5] Group 2: Walmart (NYSE: WMT) - Walmart currently has a market capitalization of $817.93 billion and needs an additional $182.07 billion, representing a 22.26% increase, to reach the $1 trillion mark [7] - The retail giant's stock was trading at $102.59, up 13.5% year to date, as it accelerates its digital transformation and supply-chain modernization [7] - Walmart is implementing Bluetooth-enabled sensors on approximately 90 million grocery pallets to improve product freshness and reduce waste [9] - The company is enhancing automation through a partnership with Symbotic, expanding robotics in distribution centers, and scaling its drone delivery service with Alphabet's Wing Aviation [10] - Walmart's introduction of AI "Super Agents" aims to improve customer service and operational efficiency, which is expected to enhance e-commerce penetration and profitability over time [11]

Economic Environment - Wall Street is increasingly uneasy about the prolonged government shutdown and the unchecked expansion of artificial intelligence, which is affecting the broader economy [1][2] - The government shutdown is taking longer than usual, leading to concerns that it is no longer just a distraction for the stock market [1][2] - Speculative, high-growth stocks are losing momentum, reflecting a bearish trend in the market [2][3] Company Insights - The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TJX) is performing strongly, with a same-store sales growth of 4% in the first half of the year, indicating resilience in a challenging market [8] - TJX has repurchased $1.1 billion in shares in the first quarter and plans to buy back between $2 billion to $2.5 billion in the current fiscal year, showcasing strong management confidence [8] - Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:PLAY) is undergoing a transformation to reinvigorate growth through store remodels and technology upgrades, but faces challenges in revenue visibility and a difficult macro environment [9][10] - The stock of Dave & Buster's is trading at an all-time low valuation of 6.8 times forward earnings, indicating potential for recovery as operational improvements are implemented [10]