Group 1 - The core issue in the soybean market is China's shift in purchasing from Brazil to Argentina, while almost completely ceasing imports from the United States, raising concerns within the U.S. soybean industry [1][4] - U.S. soybean growers are facing a critical situation as they have recorded zero purchases from China during the harvest season, prompting calls for government intervention to support the market [1][4] - The ongoing trade negotiations and tariffs have severely impacted U.S. soybean exports, with South American suppliers filling the void in the Chinese market [4][6] Group 2 - The geopolitical landscape and trade dynamics are undergoing significant changes, with China establishing stronger ties with Argentina for soybean procurement, which could reshape trade, infrastructure, and financial cooperation [6][8] - Argentina's central bank has extended its currency swap agreement with China, indicating a deepening economic relationship that could further disadvantage U.S. soybean exports [8] - The combined soybean supply from Brazil and Argentina has exceeded 210 million tons, sufficient to meet China's demand, highlighting the competitive pressure on U.S. soybean producers [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the impact of Argentina's decision to eliminate soybean export taxes, allowing it to sell 20 ships of soybeans to China, which has led to a significant drop in soybean prices in the U.S. [1] - U.S. soybean farmers are facing severe financial losses due to tariffs and market share erosion, with imports from the U.S. to China plummeting by 39% year-on-year [3][4] - Argentina's economic crisis has prompted a pragmatic approach to trade, prioritizing economic benefits over political alliances, resulting in a rapid increase in soybean exports to China [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. soybean prices have fallen from $15 per bushel to $9, leading to potential losses of $400,000 for farmers [3] - The U.S. market share in China has decreased from 60% to 21% due to a 10% tariff imposed by China on U.S. soybeans, increasing import costs significantly [3] - Argentina's decision to eliminate the soybean export tax has allowed it to capture a larger share of the Chinese market, which previously accounted for only 4% of its exports [4] Group 2: Economic and Political Context - Argentina's inflation rate stands at 140%, prompting the government to prioritize economic survival by removing export taxes [4] - U.S. farmers are dissatisfied with the government's focus on subsidies rather than market access, as they face long-term losses from losing the Chinese market [6] - The political implications of the trade war are significant, as U.S. farmers, a key voter base for Trump, are increasingly frustrated with the ongoing tariffs and market losses [9] Group 3: Global Trade Shifts - Brazil has gained a dominant position in the Chinese soybean market, capturing 71% of imports, while Argentina is quickly increasing its exports [4][7] - The diversification of China's supply chain has reduced the U.S. soybean's market share, with emerging suppliers like Russia and Myanmar also expanding their presence [7] - The article suggests that the ongoing trade dynamics are reshaping global agricultural trade, with China becoming a decisive factor in determining market leaders [6][9]

今年的美国大豆市场可谓一片混乱。特朗普刚在2025年1月宣誓就职没多久，就对中国商品加征关税，打算保护美国制造业。但事情没按预期发展，反而先 伤到了美国自己的农业。 从5月份开始，中国彻底停止购买美国大豆，把订单转向巴西和阿根廷。结果，美国中西部的豆农手里堆着468万吨存货，卖不出去，价格一路下跌。美国农 业部9月的报告显示，今年前7个月美国对华农产品出口大跌53%，大豆几乎没有成交。要知道，去年同期中国还是美国大豆的最大买家，采购额高达126亿 美元，如今却一单未下。 对于美国豆农来说，打击尤为沉重。中西部的伊利诺伊、爱荷华、明尼苏达、内布拉斯加和印第安纳州是大豆主产区，占全国产量的40%。过去，中国会买 走一半产量，另一半由国内消化。如今出口受阻，库存不断增加。农业部预计，2025/26年度美国大豆出口量仅有4640万吨，比去年少700万吨。价格也跌破 每蒲式耳8美元，连成本都覆盖不了。8月份的交易数据显示，期货价格暴跌40%，不少农场主面临破产风险。仓库爆满、霉变问题频发，甚至部分加工厂开 始裁员。 白宫也尝试安抚农民。7月中旬，农业部长维尔萨克在白宫汇报情况后，特朗普同意设立援助基金，用关税收入补贴农 ...

Core Viewpoint - The refusal of China to purchase U.S. soybeans has created significant concern within the U.S. government, leading to threats of continued tariffs despite potential government shutdowns [1][12]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Since the onset of the U.S.-China tariff war, both countries have engaged in reciprocal sanctions, with agriculture being a critical battleground alongside essential materials like rare earths [3]. - As of September 28, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported zero soybean orders from Chinese companies, a stark contrast to the 6.5 million tons ordered during the same period last year [3]. - China accounted for 22.1 million tons of U.S. soybean exports in 2024, representing 42% of total exports, but has not placed any orders since May, marking the first occurrence in 27 years [3]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Farmers - The refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans is described as "devastating" for American soybean farmers, with many facing potential bankruptcy due to the lack of orders [5]. - Despite ongoing negotiations, no resolution has been reached regarding tariffs, and the soybean harvest season has passed, leaving farmers uncertain about future agreements [5]. - In the second quarter, China imported over 30 million tons of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina, indicating a significant shift in sourcing away from the U.S. [7]. Group 3: U.S. Government Response - The U.S. government, particularly the Department of Homeland Security, has stated that tariff collection will continue even in the event of a government shutdown, emphasizing a hardline stance [12]. - The Trump administration maintains that short-term losses from the tariff war are acceptable, with the expectation of future gains for American farmers [7]. - The ongoing tariff strategy is seen as a necessary function for national security, despite the adverse effects on U.S. businesses and consumers [12]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The halt in U.S. soybean orders reflects broader concerns across various sectors, with many companies facing supply chain disruptions and increased costs due to tariffs [14]. - Rising prices from tariffs are expected to be passed on to consumers, indicating potential economic and social governance crises if the current high-pressure tactics continue [14].

在中美贸易摩擦的大背景下，美国挑起的关税战持续升级，而中国在农产品进口方面的应对措施，正在美国国 内引发连锁反应。尤其是大豆领域的调整，已让美国豆农深陷困境，三大严重后果逐渐浮现。此时，特朗普政 府是否会另寻出路，成为各方关注的焦点。 事实上，今年 8 月，特朗普不得不向中国喊话，要求增加美国大豆采购，甚至提出将订单放大至往年 4 倍。但 中国态度坚决，直接拒绝。特朗普一边不愿放弃关税筹码，一边又想把大豆和稀土同时卖给中国，这种"既要又 要"的算盘显然难以奏效。结果只会是搬起石头砸自己的脚，让美国农民、企业和消费者一同承担代价。 在压力之下，特朗普开始打"补贴牌"。他声称将动用部分关税收入，用农业援助计划补贴受影响的农民，并强 调农民短期受损，但长期会受益。然而，现实并不乐观。关税导致进口成本上涨，最终转嫁给美国民众。而农 药、化肥等农业投入品本就依赖进口，加税后价格更高，农民的种植成本雪上加霜。滞销与成本齐升，让农民 陷入两难。 可以说，中国的反制措施精准击中美国要害，不仅在农产品进口上限制了美方，还在稀土等战略资源上让美国 左右为难。除非美方展现出足够诚意，拿出真正有竞争力的条件，否则想要重获中国市场几乎 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is the decline in U.S. crude oil prices, which has been exacerbated by China's reduced imports of American oil, leading to a challenging environment for U.S. shale oil producers [3][5][7] - Argentina has temporarily lifted export taxes on agricultural products, resulting in increased soybean purchases by Chinese buyers, with at least 10 ships ordered for November shipment [1][3] - U.S. shale oil executives express concerns about the future of the industry due to the combination of Trump's energy policies and increased OPEC production, which has led to an oversupply in the market [5][7] Group 2 - The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has dropped by 18% since January, with recent prices falling below $70 per barrel, which is below the breakeven cost of over $61 per barrel for U.S. shale oil producers [5][7] - China's crude oil imports from the U.S. have decreased by 62.8% year-on-year, with no imports recorded for three consecutive months, marking the longest period without purchases since 2018 [5][9] - China's diversified sources for crude oil imports and advancements in domestic shale oil exploration have mitigated the impact of reduced U.S. imports, enhancing China's energy security [9]

美农民破大防！ 据外媒消息，往年9月份，美农民都会喜气洋洋，到农田收割大豆。因为这是我国买家开始下单的时 间。但今年情况出现了变化：自5月以来，中方没有购买过美一粒大豆。 根据记录，这是1998年之后，第一次没有购买美大豆。更令人扎心的是，在将大豆关税提高23%之后， 川普原本对农民所承诺的补贴，至今一毛钱都没有兑现。 川普想要用关税大棒吓唬人，结果先倒霉的是自己人。 中美之间的大豆博弈由来已久。 2001年之前，我国多次申请WTO均被美拒绝，原因之一就是美方要求我们开放粮食市场，我们不同 意。经过多轮谈判后，双方各退一步，我国用"开放大豆市场"的代价，换得了进入WTO的机会。 这时候，美就开始玩起了骚操作。 2003年，美农业部宣布因为旱情，连续4个月调低大豆的预期库存，大豆价格应声暴涨。次年3月，他们 再次宣布不会进行增产，大豆价格继续上涨。 中企害怕价格还会攀升，纷纷和美企签署高价采购合同。然而，等合同到手后，美农业部却话风一转， 表示之前大豆库存统计数据有误，实际上并不缺大豆。消息一出，大豆价格开启暴跌。 而刚签完合同的中企直接傻眼，要是按合同约定的高价采购那会亏的一塌糊涂，只好被迫违约，支付天 价违 ...

更让农民们担心的是就算现在和中国谈成了协议，也赶不上今年的大豆收获季了。 2025年第二季度中国从巴西、阿根廷等南美国家买的大豆总量超过了3000万吨，创下了新纪录，对美国大豆的需求降到了20年来最低，而特朗普政府却还在 坚持关税政策，认为虽然短期内会有影响，但最终美国农民会赚得更多，这种盲目乐观让农民们越来越焦虑。 这么一看墨西哥这次妥协，好像是"没办法才这样做"，但仔细琢磨其实他们根本没算清楚自己多依赖中国商品。 中国不买美国大豆了，美国农民急得提醒特朗普赶紧想办法，但美国国土安全部却坚持关税不能停，这到底说明了什么？ 根据最新报道美国新一季的大豆已经开始出口了，但卖给中国的订单却是零，和去年同期的情况完全不一样，同时美国国土安全部还明确表示，就算9月30 日后美国政府停摆，关税征收这些事也不会停。 一边是美国农民卖不出去大豆，生活压力越来越大，另一边是政府还在死撑关税政策，特朗普的贸易决策让美国陷入了两难境地，美国大豆协会主席拉格兰 甚至说这对美国农民来说简直是"五级火警"，非常紧急。 比如墨西哥最重要的汽车产业，出口到美国的整车里，有35%的零部件都是从中国买的，如果对中国零部件加税，汽车生产成本至少 ...

Group 1 - U.S. soybean farmers are facing an unprecedented crisis as China's market share for U.S. soybeans has plummeted from a peak of 34% to less than 5% [1] - The American Soybean Association has issued frequent distress signals as soybean prices continue to decline, with former President Trump calling for China to restore large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans [1][16] - China's Ministry of Commerce has stated that the U.S. must first remove unreasonable tariffs to expand soybean trade, highlighting the core issue of the current U.S.-China trade deadlock [4] Group 2 - The imposition of a 25% retaliatory tariff by China on U.S. soybeans has led to a significant increase in costs, resulting in a projected 28% decline in U.S. soybean exports for 2024 and record-high inventory levels [6] - China has developed a global procurement network with Brazil as the primary supplier, accounting for over 85% of China's soybean imports from January to August 2025 [6][8] - China's self-sufficiency in soybeans has increased by nearly 7 percentage points in 2024, aided by new agricultural cooperation projects and reduced demand for soybeans in animal feed [8] Group 3 - The economic crisis in the U.S. soybean industry is evolving into a political crisis, with a 60% year-on-year decline in U.S. soybean exports to China expected in the second half of 2024, leading to a five-year low in Chicago soybean futures [10] - Bankruptcy applications among farmers in the Midwest have increased by 35%, putting pressure on Republican lawmakers as farmers express dissatisfaction and threaten to change their voting preferences [10][12] - The Trump administration faces a dilemma between maintaining high tariffs to protect U.S. industries and addressing the needs of the farming community, with $12 billion allocated in 2024 as agricultural subsidies [12] Group 4 - The resolution of the U.S.-China soybean trade deadlock hinges on the U.S. government's willingness to remove unreasonable tariffs, as emphasized by China's Ministry of Commerce [14] - The market dynamics suggest that political interventions will lead to mutual losses, and the key to restoring U.S. soybean exports to China lies in rational policy changes from the U.S. [14]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade conflict between China and the United States is significantly impacting the U.S. soybean industry, with American farmers facing unprecedented market challenges due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As the soybean harvest season begins in the U.S. Midwest, farmers are struggling with unsold inventory, with no shipments of U.S. soybeans to China so far this season, contrasting sharply with the 6.5 million tons purchased by China during the same period last year [1][3]. - Historically, over half of U.S. soybean exports relied on the Chinese market, and the cessation of Chinese purchases has severely affected the livelihoods of thousands of farmers [3][5]. - In the first eight months of this year, Brazil exported 66 million tons of soybeans to China, accounting for three-quarters of its total exports, marking a historical high [5]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - The Trump administration's tariff policies have led to a significant loss of market share for U.S. farmers, with a previous trade war resulting in a 20% market share loss that has yet to be recovered [5]. - The U.S. government has indicated it may use tariff revenues to subsidize affected farmers, but such measures are unlikely to provide a long-term solution to the underlying market issues [5][8]. - The Trump administration remains steadfast in its tariff policies, even in the face of government shutdown threats, indicating a lack of responsiveness to farmers' growing discontent [6][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing trade tensions and China's diversification of soybean procurement are expected to have lasting impacts on the U.S. soybean market, making it difficult for the U.S. to regain its previous export levels to China [8]. - Farmers are increasingly facing financial pressures and risks of bankruptcy, with warnings from agricultural organizations about the potential collapse of the agricultural economy [5][8].