更让特朗普没算到的是，他急着用制裁转移注意力的背后，美国农业早已被他的贸易政策搅得鸡犬不 宁。 曾经靠出口中国赚钱的"票仓"，如今满是怨声载道。 前言 迟迟没盼来中国订单的特朗普政府，终究还是祭出了老办法。 当地时间10月8日，美国商务部一纸公告，将29家企业列入"制裁名单"，其中16家来自中国。 可这看似"强硬"的制裁，不仅没达到预期效果，反而撞上了中方更迅猛的反制。 一边是等不来的中方订单，一边是压不住的农业危机，再加上中方反制精准"打七寸"。 这场由特朗普挑起的博弈，逐渐朝着他最不想看到的方向滑去。 美国农民的"丰收愁" 提起美国农业，以前不少人会想到"靠中国订单吃饭"，那些种粮的农民靠着这笔生意，赚得钱包鼓鼓， 不少人还把票投给了特朗普。 可现在再去美国农业州转一圈，全是叹气声。 这一切的根源，说到底就是中国不买单了，而订单消失，恰恰是特朗普自己的贸易政策闹的。 早几年他总喊着"加关税就能让中国让步"，还拍着胸脯说关税成本全由中国承担。 结果却是关税没伤到中国分毫，反而让美国进口商先扛了成本，最后全转嫁到美国消费者身上。 更要命的是，中方直接停了美国农产品的订单， 订单一断，美国农业立马像被抽了血。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. soybean industry is facing significant challenges as exports to a key market have drastically declined, with imports from the U.S. dropping to 22.8% in the first eight months of 2025 and reaching zero in September [3] - U.S. soybean inventory has reached a historical high of 22 million tons, with 7 million tons clearly unsold, leading to a drop in futures prices from $12 to $10 per bushel, resulting in losses exceeding $200 per acre for farmers [5] - The trade tensions have not only affected soybeans but have also led to price declines in related products such as corn and wheat, tightening credit and logistics services, and causing layoffs in some regions [5] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary is planning to engage in a fifth round of trade negotiations during APEC, aiming for significant breakthroughs in trade discussions with the affected country [1] - The U.S. government is under pressure to address trade issues, especially after the country has shifted its focus on soybean imports to South America due to high tariffs imposed on U.S. soybeans [3] - The current tariff structure includes a 34% combined tariff on U.S. soybeans, which may increase further as trade tensions escalate [3]

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, which has left American farmers in a difficult position as they face unsold inventory and financial losses [1][3][9] - The shift in China's purchasing strategy towards South America indicates a structural change in the agricultural export chain, moving away from reliance on U.S. agricultural products [6][8][21] - The U.S. government's insistence on maintaining tariffs, even amidst a potential government shutdown, reflects a rigid trade policy that fails to address the immediate needs of farmers and the agricultural sector [11][15][22] Group 2 - The ongoing trade tensions have led to a fundamental change in the U.S.-China trade relationship, with American farmers no longer able to rely on China as a primary market for their soybeans [9][24][26] - The economic pressures resulting from high tariffs have not only affected farmers but have also led to increased costs for small and medium-sized enterprises, contributing to a broader economic strain [17][19][24] - The lack of effective government response to the agricultural crisis has resulted in growing discontent among farmers, who feel abandoned by the policies that once supported them [13][24][30]

对于中国而言，掌握稀土的资源优势就是一张底牌。未来中国是否会松口，不仅取决于中国自身的利益和国际规则，还与美国是否愿意放弃之前在贸 易战中的"强权逻辑"息息相关。中方并不排斥与美方建立良好的商业关系，但这绝不能以牺牲国家利益为代价。 在国际关系的复杂棋局中，中美之间的稀土问题正如一颗巨型棋子，关系到未来全球科技竞争的走向。最近，美国一个跨党派代表团的访华行动再次 将这一问题推向了聚光灯下。在美国与中国高层领导进行了一番通话后，这个代表团就带着明确的目标——希望中国能够恢复对美国的稀土供应，并 以此为契机对中美关系进行修复。 有人可能会说，这次代表团的访问是美国在试图缓和紧张局势，但探究背后的意图，我们会发现，美国并不单纯只是希望恢复贸易关系，而是带着几 分强硬和不安。这种不安的根源在于，特朗普政府意识到，当前国内外经济环境的变动，以及对高科技产业的迫切需求，让稀土的价值愈发凸显。拥 有全球49%稀土储量和69%产量的中国，无疑是在这场博弈中占据了主动权。 在与中方的会谈中，美国代表团未能达成实质性成果，其中一个重要原因就是他们似乎对稀土这个问题的理解仍停留在表面。他们希望中国在没有任 何对等回报的情况下，就给 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has implemented a 15% tariff on EU imported cars and automotive products starting August 1, which is a significant increase from the previous 2.5% most-favored-nation rate [2] - The tariff is expected to have a disastrous impact on German car manufacturers, who account for 73% of EU car exports to the U.S., with projected exports to the U.S. reaching €38.4 billion in 2024 [2] - Major German car companies, including Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen, have reported double-digit declines in net profits in the first half of the year due to the high tariffs [2] Group 2 - U.S. automakers are also facing financial losses due to the tariffs, with General Motors reporting a loss of $1.1 billion in the second quarter and Ford estimating annual losses between $2 billion to $3 billion [3] - The trade negotiations have highlighted the EU's energy dependency, as the EU Commission President had to agree to increase U.S. liquefied natural gas imports as part of the deal [2] - The trade conflict may be just beginning, indicating potential for further developments in the ongoing trade negotiations [4]

欧洲企业面临稀土供应危机 中国欧盟商会9月16日发布的报告指出，尽管7月中欧峰会达成协议，承诺加快稀土出口审批，但中国对稀土的严格管控仍未放松，导致欧洲企业供应链持续 紧张。商会主席彦辞表示，峰会后的实际改善有限，更多企业可能因原料短缺被迫停产，损失将进一步扩大。 中国主导全球稀土供应链 中国在全球稀土市场占据绝对优势，不仅贡献了约69%的稀土元素产量，还掌控着超过90%的精炼产能。这种垄断地位使中国的政策调整能迅速波及全球制 造业。例如，今年4月中国对部分稀土产品实施出口许可证制度，并要求企业建立全流程追溯系统，详细记录客户信息及用量，实现精准监管。 欧盟的焦虑与强硬表态 6月底，欧盟驻华大使托莱多公开表达对供应链中断的担忧，甚至以近乎命令的口吻要求中国在7月解决稀土磁铁出口问题。然而，中国的回应令欧盟措手不 及——7月1日，中国商务部宣布对欧盟等地区的不锈钢产品维持43%的反倾销税，为期五年。这一决定基于调查结果，认定欧盟低价倾销损害了中国钢铁行 业利益。 中欧稀土协议的实际效果有限 欧盟的困境与双标争议 欧盟在稀土问题上陷入两难：一方面以环保为由限制本土开采（如瑞典基律纳矿床和格陵兰矿藏长期搁置），另一 ...

深夜出手！中国对美国芯片"双线开火"，这场贸易暗战谁更狠？ 老铁们，突发大新闻！就在前几天晚上，中国商务部突然放了两记"大招"——正式对美国的部分模拟芯片启动反倾销调查，同时还甩出另一张牌：依据咱们 的《对外贸易法》，对美国在芯片领域的各种"歧视性限制"全面启动调查！ 这时间点也太有意思了吧？第二天中美就要在马德里坐下来谈判，前一天美国刚把二十多家中国企业塞进"实体清单"。明眼人都看得出来，这绝不是临时反 应，而是一套狠准稳的"组合拳"！ 那么问题来了：中国这次主动出击，真能逼美国老实谈判？芯片之争背后，到底谁更怕撕破脸？ 一、深夜亮剑，中国这次瞄准了什么？ 先看第一枪：反倾销调查。 商务部这回盯上的是模拟芯片，这玩意儿听起来高大上，其实就像电子行业的"水电煤"——小到电源管理，大到工业控制、新能源汽车，哪儿都离不开。国 内行业大佬们集体喊疼，说美企用不正当低价疯狂砸市场，搞得咱们自家企业都没饭吃了。 依法依规，合情合理，调查期直接拉到2026年，摆明不是随便做做样子。 更厉害的是第二枪：直接针对美国的"歧视性限制"启动调查！ 从2018年那波301关税开始，到2022年之后的芯片出口管控、AI技术限令，再到 ...

Group 1 - The US-India trade conflict is escalating, with a 50% punitive tariff on Indian goods set to take effect in 48 hours, raising global market concerns [1] - The US is reportedly shifting its focus to China, potentially imposing tariffs as high as 200% on critical products like rare earths [1][7] - India's response to the US tariffs has been strong, with the government preparing a countermeasure list that includes increasing tariffs on US agricultural products [7] Group 2 - The conflict's roots lie in energy geopolitics, particularly India's refusal to join US sanctions against Russia, leading to a 12-fold increase in oil imports from Russia in the first half of 2023 [3] - The US has implemented a rare 50% cumulative tariff on Indian textiles, jewelry, and agricultural products, citing unfair trade practices [5] - The US's strategic anxiety is evident as it attempts to rebuild its rare earth supply chain, which is heavily reliant on China, controlling over 80% of global supply [7] Group 3 - The trade battle highlights three key characteristics: tariffs as a universal tool for the Trump administration, a strategy to divide emerging markets, and China's proactive approach in securing its supply chains [7] - China's Ministry of Commerce has stated its readiness to counter any form of trade bullying, showcasing its strategic preparedness [7] - China is accelerating cooperation with ASEAN and Africa to build a more secure supply chain network for rare earths [7]

第一记重拳：关税对轰，加拿大被"临时税"锁喉 整件事得从头捋—— 去年8月，加拿大突然宣布对中国电动车加税100%，对钢铝加税25%，理由是中国"产能过剩、不正当竞争"。 明显是跟着美国屁股后面跑，想表忠心刷存在感。 结果中国反手就是一记重击！ 今年8月，中国商务部初步裁定：对加拿大油菜籽征收75.8%的临时反倾销税！ 注意，这还只是"临时"的，后面终裁可能更高！ 再加上之前菜籽油和菜籽粕已被加税100%，加拿大油菜籽出口几乎彻底停摆。 现在正赶上收获季，加拿大农场主现金流紧张，就指望出口回血… 中国这一刀，简直精准扎在命脉上！ 第二记重拳：中国不陪你玩了，转身找上澳大利亚！ 更狠的是，中国根本没在等加拿大服软！ 8月中旬，中国时隔五年首次买入5万吨澳大利亚新季油菜籽！ 后续还在谈更多订单，明显是在加速"供应链去加拿大化"！ 这一招，直接打中加拿大七寸： 失去最大买家，议价权彻底弱化； 金融套保难度飙升，贸易商利润被压缩； 农户被迫改种小麦、豆类，但周期长、风险大！ 而对中国来说，换供应商虽有点磨合成本，但长远看更安全、更主动！ 加拿大彻底扛不住了？总理卡尼罕见喊话中国：求放过油菜籽！ 临时税高达75.8%， ...

Core Points - The trade agreement between the US and Japan, signed by Trump, significantly reduces tariffs on Japanese auto imports from 27.5% to 15% [1] - Japan commits to increasing purchases of US agricultural products and investing $550 billion in the US, although only 1%-2% of this will be direct investment [3][5] Group 1: Economic Impact - The reduction of the auto tariff is crucial for Japan, as the automotive industry is a key pillar of its economy, with over 30% of its total auto exports going to the US [5] - In 2024, Japan's auto exports to the US are projected to reach 1.37 million units, with nearly $50 billion in total export value [5] - High tariffs could lead to significant losses for Japan, with estimates of up to 3.47 trillion yen in potential losses if the 27.5% tariff remains [5] Group 2: Strategic Considerations - Japan's decision to sign the agreement, despite public backlash, is driven by the strategic importance of maintaining competitive tariff rates with other countries like the EU and South Korea [5][9] - The agreement reflects the US's strategy of reshaping trade relationships through tariff leverage, emphasizing the "America First" policy [9] - Japan's reliance on exports, particularly in the automotive sector, makes the US an indispensable market, necessitating negotiations to minimize losses [7][9]