8月底，美国上诉法院已裁定，1977年的《国际紧急经济权力法》并未赋予总统征收进口关税的权利。 现在，最高法院的最终裁决将决定这场关税战的走向。于是，特朗普在社交平台上发文表示，如果最高 法院最终取消他推行的关税政策，美国将损失超过3万亿美元，并且这种损失是无法弥补的。显然，特 朗普对局势感到非常焦虑，因为这场本意是施压中国的贸易博弈，不仅没有达到预期效果，反而让美国 陷入了更大的困境。 那美国究竟面临着哪些困境呢？直接来看，关税返还和企业倒闭成了沉重的成本。截至今年9月，美国 因争议法案征收的关税已经高达890亿美元。如果美国最高法院裁定政策违法，这些关税收入就得退还 给相关企业。随着清算的推进，这些返还款项可能轻松突破1万亿美元的规模。对本已捉襟见肘的美国 财政而言，这无疑是雪上加霜。而更严重的，是关税政策对美国本土企业的冲击。 特朗普本来希望通过关税战迫使中国做出妥协，结果却让美国陷入了市场丢失、订单减少、技术优势削 弱的尴尬境地。在三重损失的叠加之下，美国损失3万亿并非危言耸听。直接的关税返还和企业倒闭成 本、隐性的通胀和消费下滑，以及长期的市场份额流失，这些堆积在一起，形成了这场关税战的经济账 单。 ...

双方计划建立关税水平与市场准入定期审查机制，为后续贸易合作搭建长效框架。美印贸易协议的推进，本质是政治意志与市场规律的双重博弈，其影响 已辐射全球主要经济体。 美国收获多重红利，既扩大了能源与农产品出口渠道，缓解国内产业压力，又通过贸易绑定深化对印经济影响力，为"印太经济联盟"落地铺路。更重要的 是，借助印度廉价劳动力，美国试图打造"中国替代"的供应链备份。 印度机遇与风险并存，关税下降将直接提振出口企业订单，但扩大美国农产品进口可能冲击本土农业体系，而减少俄油进口或推高国内能源成本。此外， 印度制造业70%的空调压缩机、58%的手机零部件依赖中国进口，供应链"去中化"短期内难以实现。 2025年全球贸易格局正迎来重磅变数。美国与印度接近敲定搁置已久的双边贸易协定，美方拟将对印商品关税从当前50%的高位大幅降至15%-16%。这一 横跨能源、农业、制造业的贸易突破，不仅直指美印5000亿美元贸易目标，更暗藏全球供应链重构的深层博弈，引发市场对中美印贸易三角、产业转移的 连锁猜想。 整体税率降至15%-16%区间 美印此次贸易谈判的核心，是一场精准的双向让步。 关税大幅下调成关键亮点，美国将取消针对印度的25% ...

Group 1: Trade Agreement Overview - The US and China reached important agreements during their meeting in Busan, including mutual tariff reductions and the suspension of certain export control measures [1][3] - The US will lower the "fentanyl tariff" from 20% to 10% starting November 10, while continuing to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for another year [1][5] - China will also suspend the additional 24% tariffs on US goods and maintain a 10% tariff [1][3] Group 2: Agricultural Trade - China announced the cessation of additional tariffs on US agricultural products such as chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, and soybeans, allowing US agricultural products to re-enter the Chinese market [3][5] - The US expects China to purchase at least 12 million tons of US soybeans in the last two months of 2025, and at least 25 million tons annually from 2026 to 2028 [5] Group 3: Export Controls and Negotiation Dynamics - The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetrating export control rules and the maritime 301 investigation against China, while China will also pause its related export control measures [3][5] - The negotiations demonstrated flexibility from both sides, leading to a compromise agreement [3][6] Group 4: Economic Implications - The agreement is expected to stabilize the US economy, particularly benefiting agricultural states, and alleviate domestic inflation pressures through tariff reductions [6] - For China, maintaining stable economic relations is crucial for high-quality economic development, and limited concessions can provide more space for technological advancement [6] Group 5: Global Trade Impact - The trade truce is seen as a positive influence on global trade stability, providing clearer policy expectations for multinational companies [6] - The effective weighted trade tariff from the US to China has decreased from 107% to approximately 40%, exceeding market expectations [6] Group 6: E-commerce Industry Outlook - The reduction in US tariffs is a positive signal for the cross-border e-commerce industry, enhancing price competitiveness and potentially improving profit margins [8]

Group 1 - China committed to purchasing 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans worth approximately $6 billion in Q4 2025, signaling a strategic shift amidst ongoing trade tensions [1] - The price difference between Brazilian and U.S. soybeans is significant, with Brazilian soybeans reaching $920 per ton and U.S. soybeans at $520 per ton, allowing China to save costs on imports [3] - The U.S. soybean supply chain is more stable and diversified compared to Brazil, which faced severe drought and supply chain disruptions, making U.S. soybeans a safer choice for China [3] Group 2 - The soybean trade serves as a leverage point in U.S.-China relations, with U.S. soybean exports accounting for 12% of U.S. agricultural GDP, impacting key electoral states [5] - China's strategy includes a flexible pricing clause in the soybean purchase agreement, allowing for renegotiation if prices fluctuate by more than 10% [3] - China's domestic soybean planting area increased by 8% in 2025, but the country still relies on U.S. imports to stabilize domestic prices and support local industry upgrades [3] Group 3 - China's diversified import strategy includes increasing soybean imports from Brazil, Argentina, and Russia, with Brazil's share reaching 85.2% in early 2025 [10] - The U.S. faces fiscal challenges, with a federal deficit of $2.03 trillion in 2025, making the revenue from the soybean order insufficient to cover interest payments [8] - The global supply chain is being reshaped, with China gradually undermining the dollar's dominance through local currency settlement agreements in trade [12]

Group 1 - China resumed purchasing 180,000 tons of U.S. soybeans, marking the first order after a five-month pause, which is perceived as a gesture of goodwill amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions [2][6][8] - The decision to purchase U.S. soybeans comes at a time when Brazilian soybean prices have surged, causing concern among Brazilian exporters who have seen their products pile up at ports [4][21][23] - The U.S. soybean farmers have suffered significantly due to China's absence in the market, with many facing storage issues and financial losses [6][19][32] Group 2 - The timing of China's soybean purchase is strategic, aimed at signaling to Brazil that it has alternative sources for soybeans, thus discouraging price gouging [15][19][30] - Brazilian soybean prices have increased dramatically, from $360 per ton to $650 per ton, reflecting an 80% rise, which has led to operational losses for Chinese oil mills [23][25][27] - The logistical challenges in Brazil, including strikes and adverse weather conditions, have compounded the issues, leading to increased transportation costs and inventory buildup [21][34][40] Group 3 - China's actions have prompted a reevaluation of trade relationships, as it demonstrates its ability to pivot suppliers and maintain market stability despite price fluctuations [19][42] - The situation has highlighted the risks of over-reliance on a single supplier, as Brazilian exporters misjudged China's market position and response capabilities [29][30][42] - The overall soybean trade dynamics are shifting, with Brazil's high pricing strategy failing to hold up against China's decisive purchasing strategy from the U.S. [36][38][40]

Core Insights - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have highlighted a complex "trade game," with the U.S. government relieved by China's agreement to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans and to suspend rare earth export controls, indicating a slight thaw in relations [1][3] - However, underlying tensions remain, as U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's contradictory statements reveal a struggle between maintaining a tough stance and acknowledging rising economic costs [1][5] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - China has shown a willingness to cooperate by suspending new rare earth export controls and increasing agricultural purchases, indicating a desire for a win-win situation [3][10] - The U.S. response has been to overlook these gestures of goodwill, opting instead for threats and sanctions, which reflects deeper anxieties regarding rare earth supply chains [3][5] - The U.S. has not significantly improved its dependence on rare earths, despite claims of building a domestic industry within two years, revealing a gap in mining and processing technology [3][5] Group 2: Internal U.S. Conflicts - U.S. Secretary Yellen's dual role as a farmer and decision-maker complicates his position, as he must balance agricultural interests with national strategy, especially ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [5][7] - The U.S. government appears confused in its international strategy, attempting to form a "rare earth alliance" while simultaneously benefiting from globalization, which may lead to increased isolation [7][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The U.S.-China relationship has evolved into a stalemate, with both sides unable to fully "decouple" due to economic interdependence, suggesting that unilateral actions may lead to mutual losses [8][10] - Long-term consensus on trade issues can only be achieved through honest and equal cooperation, as threats and sanctions provide only temporary economic benefits without addressing structural problems [10]

Core Insights - Brazilian soybean exporters raised prices from $565 to $650 per ton, a 22% increase within three weeks, leading to a significant shift in China's purchasing strategy [2][4] - China suspended an 8 million ton procurement plan from Brazil, which accounted for 70% of Brazil's monthly exports to China, and quickly turned to Argentina for 1.3 million tons of soybeans [2][4] - Argentina's cancellation of soybean export taxes and competitive pricing led to a rapid increase in orders from China, filling the gap left by Brazil [2][6] Group 1: Price Dynamics and Market Reactions - Brazilian soybean prices reached a four-year high in October, prompting Chinese buyers to halt purchases due to unprofitability [8] - In September, China imported 5.21 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a 2.4% year-on-year increase, but quietly reduced procurement by 40% [4][6] - Brazilian exporters faced a dilemma of either lowering prices, which would indicate a misjudgment, or accumulating inventory and risking financial strain [8][12] Group 2: Supply Chain and Strategic Shifts - China's soybean import strategy has diversified, now sourcing from 16 countries, including Argentina and Russia, reducing reliance on Brazil [6][10] - The shift in procurement to Argentina is attributed to better pricing, with Argentine soybeans being $30 to $40 cheaper per ton than Brazilian soybeans [2][6] - China's proactive measures, such as releasing 1.5 million tons of domestic reserves, have stabilized the market amid rising soybean prices [6][10] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The Brazilian Grain Exporters Association has revised its export forecasts downward due to lost orders, indicating a significant impact on Brazil's economy [4][12] - China's strategic partnerships and procurement flexibility highlight a shift towards a more resilient supply chain, reducing vulnerability to price fluctuations [10][12] - The current situation reflects a historical pattern where Brazil's pricing strategies have led to a loss of market share to other suppliers, emphasizing the need for competitive pricing [8][10]

Core Insights - Recent trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. have gained attention following Trump's abrupt termination of talks, leading Canada to initiate anti-dumping investigations against Chinese companies within 24 hours, indicating a calculated political and economic strategy [1][3] Trade Relations - Canada relies heavily on the U.S. for trade, with exports to the U.S. consistently accounting for 75.9% of its total exports. In 2022, the trade volume between the two countries exceeded $1 trillion, with key industries like steel, aluminum, and automotive tightly integrated into U.S. supply chains [1] U.S. Tariff Concerns - Trump's halt in negotiations was ostensibly due to a protest against a CAD 75 million anti-tariff advertisement from Ontario, but it also relates to the legality of tariffs, as the U.S. Supreme Court is set to review compliance issues that could result in the government needing to refund nearly $1 trillion in tariffs [3] Canadian Strategy - Canada's anti-dumping investigation against Chinese firms is seen as a risky balancing act, aiming to demonstrate loyalty to the U.S. while seeking leverage in negotiations. However, past experiences, such as the significant drop in electric vehicle exports to China, highlight the potential backlash from such actions [3][5] Domestic Impact - The investigation into truck body components poses significant risks, as nearly 40% of parts required by Canadian truck manufacturers come from China. Imposing anti-dumping duties could increase costs, adversely affecting consumers and exacerbating inflationary pressures [5] Geopolitical Positioning - Canada’s role in the trade dynamics is increasingly precarious, as the U.S. seeks to leverage allies to pressure China. As a member of the "Five Eyes" alliance, Canada’s position is crucial in diminishing China's market share in North America while providing a model for other allies [5] Future Challenges - Canada faces the challenge of navigating its foreign policy to maintain a balance between U.S. pressures and its economic interests with China. The current anti-dumping investigation could jeopardize Canada's strategy to diversify exports away from the U.S. and may lead to economic repercussions if not managed carefully [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. Trade Representative, Tai, stated that the U.S. will reassess its trade relationship with China, claiming that the past 20 years have only benefited China and that the U.S. can no longer tolerate this situation [1][3] - The bilateral trade structure between the U.S. and China is characterized by complementarity, with China's exports to the U.S. primarily consisting of electromechanical products, while the U.S. exports mainly agricultural products and energy [5] - The U.S. is facing increased competition from China's industrial upgrades, particularly in high-value products like electric vehicles and lithium batteries, which are eroding the U.S.'s traditional advantages in high-end manufacturing [7] Group 2 - The agricultural sector in the U.S. is under pressure, with soybean imports from China dropping to zero for the first time in seven years, leading to significant impacts on American farmers [9][11] - The current effective tariff rate in the U.S. is close to 19%, the highest since the Great Depression, resulting in an average annual expenditure increase of $2,400 for American households [13] - The U.S. is heavily reliant on China for rare earth elements, which are critical for military applications, and efforts to reduce this dependency are ongoing but face significant challenges [14][16] Group 3 - China is diversifying its foreign trade to reduce reliance on a single market, with exports to ASEAN countries increasing by 9.6%, making ASEAN China's largest trading partner [20] - China's technological self-sufficiency is accelerating, with advancements in various sectors, indicating a shift towards higher value-added production [22] - The internal policy divisions within the U.S. government regarding trade with China are evident, with conflicting statements from officials highlighting the pressures from both businesses and political considerations [24][26] Group 4 - The potential for limited consensus in negotiations exists, particularly regarding tariff exemptions on certain Chinese goods, which could alleviate costs for American consumers [26][28] - The ongoing trade conflict reflects a clash of two development models, with the U.S. attempting to maintain its technological dominance while China pursues multilateral cooperation and industrial upgrades [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Cost side: This week, oil prices rebounded. Tensions between the US and Venezuela, along with the US plan to purchase crude oil to replenish strategic reserves, supported the upward movement of oil prices. Subsequently, Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin and increased sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US affected crude oil supply expectations, driving a significant increase in oil prices. However, the contradiction of oversupply in the crude oil fundamentals has begun to materialize, and the macro - situation remains unclear. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US negotiations and whether the Brent crude oil resistance level can be broken [1] - PX: This week, the operating rate of PX in China was 85.9% (a 1.0% increase from last week), and in Asia it was 78.5% (a 0.5% increase from last week). The load of domestic PX plants increased, mainly due to the fluctuating increase in the load of some domestic PX plants, while the overseas PX situation changed little. Recently, the PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level. Although the floating price has rebounded in the short term, the rebound space of PXN is limited due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and the expansion of individual plants [1] - TA: The operating rate of PTA in China was 78.8% (a 2.1% increase from last week), and the spot processing fee was 67 yuan/ton (a decrease of 59 yuan from last week). The load of PTA increased slightly this week. With the expectation of new plant commissioning, the processing fee was compressed again. The near - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is reported that new plants are expected to be commissioned soon, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term expectation is weak, and the current market spot supply is relatively abundant. Although the demand side has improved recently, the improvement of the long - term inventory accumulation expectation in the fundamentals is limited [2] - Demand: This week, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 75.0% (a 6.0% increase from last week), and the polyester operating rate was 91.4% (unchanged from last week). With the cooling weather and the start of the Double Eleven sales, domestic orders improved significantly this week. The load of looms and texturing machines rebounded sharply, and the raw material price rebound also drove concentrated restocking. The inventory of filament yarns decreased significantly. However, since the inventory is still at a seasonal high, the current raw material inventory of weaving factories is not high. Attention should be paid to whether there will be positive news from the China - US tariff negotiations at the end of the month to boost external demand. Currently, the inventory of polyester factories is not high, and the cash - flow profit is acceptable. The average load expectation for polyester in October and November is slightly increased [2] - PF: This week, the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber was 94.3% (unchanged from last week). The inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories' equity were 7.7 days (a decrease of 1.4 days from last week), the operating rate of polyester yarn was 66.0% (unchanged from last week), the physical inventory of 1.4D was 15.0 days (a decrease of 0.8 days from last week), and the equity inventory of 1.4D was 3.4 days (a decrease of 1.6 days from last week). This week, the increase in the spot price of factories was less than that of futures, the basis and the price difference in the market narrowed, the sales of staple fiber factories were smooth, the inventory continued to decrease, and the load remained stable. The processing margin of staple fiber was moderately compressed to the range of 1100 - 1200. On the demand side, the sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn were stable, and the operating rate remained stable [3] - PR: The operating rate of bottle - chip factories (based on maximum capacity) was 73.2% (an increase of 0.8%), the inventory of bottle - chip factories was 17.8 days (a decrease of 0.2 days from last week), and the spot processing fee of bottle - chips was 471 yuan/ton (a decrease of 77 yuan from last week). This week, the prices of upstream polyester raw materials increased, and the prices of polyester bottle - chip factories mostly followed the increase of raw materials. The overall processing range was slightly compressed. The low - end market transactions were acceptable, but the transactions were weak after the price increase in the second half of the week. Fundamentally, the load of bottle - chips remained stable this week, and large factories generally maintained production cuts. The inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remained stable. With the improvement of processing efficiency, attention should be paid to whether the plant load will increase in the future and the progress of new capacity investment. In the future, as the demand gradually enters the off - season, the processing fee of polyester bottle - chips is expected to remain volatile overall, following the fluctuations of raw materials [3] - Strategy: Unilateral: Neutral for PX/PTA/PF/PR. The demand has improved due to the cooling weather, and the crude oil price has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical changes. For PX, the PX load in China has recently recovered to a relatively high level, and the rebound space of PXN is limited due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and the expansion of individual plants. For TA, the near - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is reported that a 3 - million - ton new plant is expected to be commissioned in late October, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November, with a weak long - term expectation. The current market spot supply is relatively abundant, the PTA processing fee and valuation are at a low level, and the demand side has marginally improved with the cooling weather. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the China - US tariff game at the end of the month and the crude oil fluctuations under geopolitical changes. For PF, the demand for PF has slightly improved, the factory inventory has decreased to a low level, the short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials, and the processing fee is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. For PR, the fundamentals of bottle - chips have changed little, maintenance continues but demand is average, and the spot processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of raw material prices. Cross - variety: Go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. Cross - term: None [4] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Spread - Figures show the trends of TA, PX, PF, and PR's main contracts, their basis, and cross - term spreads, as well as various processing fees, profits, and price differences [9][10][11] 2. PX and PTA Supply - Illustrate the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the loads of PX in China and Asia [45][46][49] 3. Inventory - Present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various types of warehouse inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [54][56][66] 4. Demand - Include the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, the loads of polyester, direct - spinning filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle - chips, the inventory days of filament factories, and the operating rates of looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as well as the profits of filament [62][67][74] 5. PF Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Show the load of polyester staple fiber, the equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories, the physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, the load of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the price difference between original and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and production profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [87][91][93] 6. PR Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Display the load of polyester bottle - chips, the inventory days of bottle - chip factories, the spot and export processing fees of bottle - chips, the export profit of bottle - chips, and the price difference between East China water bottle - chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chips [110][111][115]