西得克萨斯中质原油(WTI)

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美大豆还在苦苦支撑,原油先崩了,中方半年都没买,美油价狂跌
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-01 01:07
近段时间,来自阿根廷、巴西的大豆陆陆续续通过中国海关,美国豆农哭天抢地,但谁都没想到,比大豆先崩的,居然是美国的原油。 日前,阿根廷政府宣布暂时取消谷物、牛肉、家禽肉等农产品的出口预扣税。趁着这股政策红利,中国买家又订购了至少10船大豆,每船约6.5万吨,计划 11月装运。 第一个就是特朗普政府的政策,自他重返白宫,就喊出了"国家能源紧急状态"的口号,鼓励美国大幅增产页岩油,以"巩固能源主导地位",但这一施政恰好 碰上了欧佩克增产,一时间,大量石油涌入市场,供过于求的结果就是油价下跌。据英国《金融时报》9月25日报道称,今年1月以来,美国基准原油西得克 萨斯中质原油(WTI)已下跌18%。美国页岩油本来被视作"能源独立"支柱行业,但特朗普一顿操作猛如虎,直接把美国的生产商给干趴下了。 第二个原因是中国买家不买了。中国海关总署的数据显示,今年前八个月,中国原油进口量合计3.76亿吨,较去年同期增长2.50%,但这当中从美国进口的 原油量却较去年同期缩减了62.8%,尤其是6、7、8这三个月,中国连续三个月都没进口美国的原油。再往前的3、4、5月,情况也差不多糟糕。彭博社7月3 日发表过一篇报道称,美国官方调查数 ...
美国页岩业高管匿名吐槽特朗普:全是乱的,谁愿意在这种环境下做商业决定
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 18:03
【文/观察者网 王一】"噪音与混乱震耳欲聋!谁愿意在这种不稳定的环境下做商业决定?" 这是美国一家页岩油勘探与生产公司高管在接受达拉斯联邦储备银行调查时的匿名吐槽。面对特朗普政 府的能源与贸易政策,美国页岩行业正陷入前所未有的焦虑。 这项调查显示,美国页岩油企业高管们普遍认为,特朗普重返白宫后一方面高喊"国家能源紧急状态", 承诺全力以赴"钻探",降低消费者的能源成本;另一方面又以关税、低价策略和随意多变的政策,直 接"重创"了这一曾被视为"能源独立"支柱的行业。 一位高管直言,特朗普政府"几乎对页岩油经济学一无所知",其做法"等同于与石油输出国组织(欧佩 克)站到了一起,通过操纵供应压低油价至经济门槛以下,把美国生产商彻底压趴下了"。 来持负面预期的比例几乎翻了三倍,骤降17.6%。 2024年12月至今,美国基准原油西得克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格走势彭博社制图 接受调查的业内高管表示,如果油价低于每桶60美元,他们的生意就会亏损。他们预计到今年年底, WTI价格将维持在每桶63美元的水平,到2027年将达到每桶67美元。但高管们指出,短期内全球市场供 应过剩正在制约价格,并打击盈利能力和股息,他们也对特 ...
油价低迷石油巨头打算“收缩”
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-09-17 02:57
Core Viewpoint - The optimism of international oil giants at the beginning of the year has dissipated due to low oil prices, leading to job cuts and spending reductions as companies enter a "contraction" mode [1] Industry Overview - The oil industry has experienced a significant shift in sentiment over the past six months, with companies that previously expressed confidence in maintaining operations at $60 per barrel now facing challenges [2] - The U.S. shale oil sector is undergoing its largest wave of layoffs since 2022, with a cumulative oil price drop of 12.5% this year contributing to a pessimistic outlook [2] - ConocoPhillips announced plans to cut up to 25% of its workforce globally, indicating potential struggles within the company and the industry [2] - Chevron also announced similar layoffs earlier in the year, attributing them to both falling oil prices and the need to cut costs following an acquisition [3] Spending and Investment Trends - U.S. oil companies have collectively reduced spending by $2 billion, reflecting a broader trend of cost-cutting measures in response to market conditions [4] - Wood Mackenzie forecasts a 4.3% decline in global oil and gas exploration capital expenditure this year, marking the first decrease since 2020 [5] - If Brent crude prices fall below $60 per barrel, international oil giants may struggle to maintain current capital expenditure plans and fulfill dividend commitments to shareholders [5] Market Predictions - Analysts predict that Brent crude prices could drop below $60 per barrel within the year, with some forecasts suggesting prices may stabilize around $50 per barrel in the coming years if demand remains weak [4] - Historical patterns indicate that oil price rebounds can occur with a single variable shift, such as lower-than-expected growth in U.S. shale oil production [5] - Recent data shows a decline in U.S. shale oil production, with output falling to 13.4 million barrels per day in late August, down from 13.6 million barrels per day in December [5]
特朗普对俄施压助推油价上涨 背后原因不止这些……
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-07-30 17:53
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump has set a 10-day deadline for Russia to make progress towards a peace agreement with Ukraine, threatening new sanctions if not met [1][2] Oil Price Movement - On July 29, light crude oil futures for September delivery rose by $2.50 to $69.21 per barrel, a 3.75% increase, while Brent crude futures increased by $2.47 to $72.51 per barrel, a 3.53% rise [1] - Following the overnight surge of over 3%, oil prices experienced a slight pullback during the Asian trading session on July 30 [1] Geopolitical Tensions - Trump's announcement of potential new tariffs, including a 100% tariff on Russian oil, has surprised analysts and could tighten Russia's supply to global markets [2][3] - The geopolitical tension is causing oil futures to attempt to break out of a consolidation phase [2] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Prior to Trump's comments, oil prices were already on the rise due to signs of inventory tightening and strong summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere [4] - The WTI crude oil futures price broke above the 200-day moving average of approximately $68.17 per barrel, leading to a technical buying surge [4] - Commodity trading advisors increased their bullish positions on WTI crude, with net long positions rising to 55% on July 29 from 18% short positions on July 28 [4] Trade Agreements and Their Impact - The trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU has provided support for oil prices, alleviating concerns over a potential trade war [4] - Optimism exists around these trade agreements, which, while not perfect, are seen as better than the worst-case scenarios [4] Potential Impact of Sanctions on Major Buyers - The proposed "secondary tariffs" on countries purchasing Russian oil could significantly impact markets, particularly for China and India, the largest buyers of Russian oil [5] - The U.S. has warned China about potential massive tariffs if it continues to buy Russian oil, while India has indicated compliance with secondary sanctions [5] - The risk of Russia retaliating by cutting off major oil pipelines could further pressure oil prices [5]
国际油价,暴涨!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-06-18 00:27
Economic Data Impact - US retail sales in May recorded the largest decline since the beginning of the year, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending, particularly in the automotive sector. Retail sales fell by 0.9% month-over-month, while core retail sales decreased by 0.3% [5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in its upcoming meeting, with market predictions indicating two potential rate cuts of 25 basis points each starting as early as September [5] Energy Sector Response - International oil prices surged due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the EU's proposal to ban imports of Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027. WTI crude oil rose by $3.07 (4.28%) to $74.84 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by $3.22 (4.4%) to $76.45 per barrel [10][9] - Energy stocks experienced a broad increase, with Occidental Petroleum, ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Schlumberger all showing gains [10][11] Airline Industry Developments - Indian Airlines canceled at least five international flights due to technical issues, affecting Boeing aircraft. This led to a decline in airline stocks, with American Airlines dropping over 3% and United Airlines falling more than 6% [7][8] Technology Sector Trends - Major technology stocks experienced declines, with Tesla dropping nearly 4%, Apple down over 1%, and Amazon falling by 0.59%. The overall trend indicates a challenging environment for large tech companies [12] - Amazon's CEO indicated that the adoption of generative AI tools will lead to a reduction in the workforce over the next few years, as fewer employees will be needed for certain tasks [13]
中东地缘冲突加剧国际油价震荡
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-17 22:13
Group 1 - On June 13, Israel launched a military attack on Iran, causing significant reactions in the international oil market, with Brent crude oil futures and WTI prices both surging over 7%, marking the largest daily increase since the Ukraine crisis began [1] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to heighten the risk of oil supply disruptions, with the potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil transport [1] - Major investment banks and energy institutions have revised their oil price forecasts, indicating that while prices may spike due to immediate events, they are likely to return to fundamental supply-demand dynamics in the long term [1][2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs noted that despite high short-term risk premiums, major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have nearly 3 million barrels per day of spare capacity, suggesting that prices may retreat to the $75 to $78 per barrel range after an initial spike [2] - Morgan Stanley highlighted that the recent price surge is primarily due to heightened tensions and risk hedging, with global refining margins significantly narrowing compared to last year, indicating insufficient downstream demand to support sustained high prices [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that uncertainties in Middle Eastern energy security could pose significant challenges to global energy supply-demand balance in the second half of the year [3] Group 3 - Shell has indicated a shift in energy investment strategies from a "high return" logic to a "high safety" logic due to geopolitical risks, with plans to accelerate project developments in Africa and Brazil to mitigate concentration risks [3] - Saudi Aramco has assured that it can increase production by 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day within 48 hours if the market experiences panic, aiming to stabilize expectations [3] Group 4 - The long-term challenge of ensuring energy supply security is complex, particularly for energy-importing countries, which need to diversify energy imports and establish strategic reserves to buffer against price volatility [4] - The international oil market may experience a new normal characterized by "larger fluctuations and low-level oscillations," with a supply slightly exceeding demand likely to persist [4]
美法院否决关税致原油冲高回落 市场聚焦周末欧佩克会议
news flash· 2025-05-29 13:09
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. federal court's ruling against Trump's tariff policy led to a temporary spike in crude oil futures, which later retreated as the government announced plans to appeal the decision [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Crude oil futures initially surged but subsequently fell after the court ruling [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled for the weekend [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease of 4.2 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week [1] - The Energy Information Administration (EIA) data is expected to show a different trend, likely not replicating the same inventory drop [1] - A slight inventory decline at the Cushing delivery hub is anticipated to support West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price levels [1]
特朗普希望油价低于50美元?美国能源部长有不同意见
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 08:15
Core Viewpoint - The current oil prices are deemed unsustainable for U.S. oil and gas producers, with a critical threshold identified around $60-62 per barrel for WTI crude oil production viability [1][5]. Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - Analysts suggest that President Trump's preference for WTI crude oil prices is around $40-50 per barrel, which is considered unrealistic by industry experts [1]. - As of the latest reports, Brent crude is priced at $63.46 per barrel and WTI at $60.58 per barrel, both down approximately 15% year-to-date [1]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil production from 13.465 million barrels per day to 13.367 million barrels per day, marking a decline of 264,000 barrels per day from the historical peak [3]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The ongoing decline in international oil prices is putting significant pressure on U.S. oil and gas producers, particularly those in the higher-cost shale oil sector [3]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has decreased, with a total of 578 rigs reported, down by 25 from the previous year, and oil drilling platforms at 474, down by 22 [3]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also revised down its expectations for U.S. shale oil production [3]. Group 3: Political and Regulatory Context - Industry executives are seeking tariff exemptions for oilfield equipment and are advocating for OPEC+ to limit production to stabilize prices [4]. - Trump's administration has historically supported the fossil fuel industry, with significant financial contributions from major oil companies during his campaign [5]. - There are internal disagreements within the Trump administration regarding the sustainability of oil prices below $50 per barrel, with some officials emphasizing the need to eliminate regulatory barriers instead [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that a balanced oil price around $60 per barrel could help manage domestic inflation while encouraging U.S. oil and gas production [6]. - The current stance of Trump on energy issues indicates a preference for lower prices over high production levels, which aligns with concerns expressed by oil industry executives [6].
欧美五大油企一季度合计利润下降29%
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-05-12 02:00
Core Viewpoint - The net profits of the five major oil companies in Europe and the U.S. are projected to decline significantly in the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to falling crude oil prices, raising concerns about further deterioration in future performance [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the combined net profit of the five major oil companies reached $20.531 billion, a 29% decrease compared to the same period last year [1]. - Individual company performances include: ExxonMobil with $7.71 billion (down 6%), Shell with $4.78 billion (down 35%), Chevron with $3.5 billion (down 36%), TotalEnergies with $3.85 billion (down 32.7%), and BP with $0.69 billion (down 69.6%) [1]. - The net profits of these five companies have declined for eight consecutive quarters [1]. Group 2: Oil Price Impact - The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures in Q1 2025 was approximately $75 per barrel, down about 10% from $82 per barrel in the same period last year [1]. - The Brent crude oil futures price also fell by 10% compared to the previous year [1]. - The decline in oil prices is partly attributed to the policies of the Trump administration, which included calls for OPEC to lower prices and tariffs that increased global recession expectations [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Market analysts predict that the performance of these oil companies may worsen in Q2 2025, with WTI futures dropping below $70 per barrel and currently trading at just over $60 per barrel [2]. - A study by the Dallas Federal Reserve indicates that developing new U.S. oil requires a WTI price of about $65 per barrel, suggesting that if prices fall below $60 per barrel, oil production may begin to decline due to unprofitability [2]. - Despite the Trump administration's encouragement for increased U.S. oil production, companies are still facing pressure on profit margins due to low oil prices and rising material costs [2].
前沿观察丨美国能源信息署下调WTI油价预期!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-10 16:11
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has significantly lowered its WTI crude oil price forecasts for the next two years, indicating a bearish outlook for the oil market [4]. Price Forecast Adjustments - The EIA has revised its 2025 WTI spot price forecast from $63.88 per barrel to $61.81 per barrel, and for 2026, from $57.48 per barrel to $55.24 per barrel. The 2024 WTI spot price forecast remains unchanged at $76.60 per barrel [4]. - The EIA's quarterly price predictions for 2025 include $60.85 per barrel in Q2, $58 in Q3, and $57 in Q4, with Q1 at $71.85 per barrel. For 2026, the forecasts are $56 per barrel in Q1 and Q2, $55 in Q3, and $54 in Q4 [4]. Comparison with Previous Forecasts - The latest forecasts show a downward trend compared to the EIA's April predictions, which had estimated $62.33 per barrel for Q2 2025, $61.67 for Q3, and $60 for Q4. The 2026 forecasts were $59 for Q1, $58 for Q2, $57 for Q3, and $56 for Q4 [4]. - In March, the EIA had a more optimistic outlook, predicting an average price of $70.68 per barrel for 2025 and $64.97 per barrel for 2026 [5]. Other Market Predictions - Standard Chartered's commodity research head forecasts an average WTI price of $58 per barrel for 2025, rising to $75 per barrel in 2026, with specific quarterly predictions for 2025 being $50 in Q2, $49 in Q3, and $62 in Q4 [5]. - J.P. Morgan's commodity research team anticipates an average WTI price of $62 per barrel for 2025, potentially dropping to $54 per barrel in 2026, with Q2 2025 expected to be $63 per barrel, declining to $57 in Q4 [5].