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今年两会值得关注的方向有哪些?
Huajin Securities· 2025-03-03 14:00
Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in TMT, new energy, home appliances, automotive, and consumer sectors during the Two Sessions [2][24] - High-growth sectors identified include TMT, new energy, and pharmaceuticals, while policy-driven sectors include TMT under technology innovation and home appliances, automotive, and consumer electronics under domestic demand expansion [2][24] Market Trends - Historical analysis indicates that market performance tends to be weaker after the Two Sessions compared to before, with small-cap stocks showing higher winning probabilities in the short term [7][10] - The average performance of major indices post-Two Sessions shows declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index averaging a decline of -1.34% in the first five trading days [7][10] Policy Directions - The report anticipates a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a focus on stability in economic growth expectations across various provinces [16][19] - Key policy themes identified include new quality productivity, deepening digital economy, expanding domestic demand, and upgrading social welfare [21][22] Industry Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors related to new quality productivity, such as artificial intelligence, industrial internet, and data elements, as well as future industries like satellite internet and humanoid robots [2][24] - Specific industries to watch include TMT, new energy, and pharmaceuticals, driven by technological advancements and policy support [25][26] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is expected to see improved performance post-Two Sessions, with significant growth in real estate, construction, retail, food and beverage, and transportation sectors [10][14] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption include issuing digital RMB vouchers and enhancing urban-rural coordination to stimulate consumer spending [22][23]