南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 ——维持震荡走势 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响玻璃纯碱走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、浮法玻璃日熔下滑至一定低位，但后续冷修和点火预期均存在，需求现实和预期同样疲弱。玻璃处于供需 双弱的状态下，整体节奏较难把握。价格如果上涨，会动摇市场的冷修预期而刺激点火，因此很难在需求没 有起色的情况下给到玻璃价格向上的弹性。但如果价格急速下跌的话，也不排除当下的点火预期被动摇，并 且在春节前触发更多的冷修计划；此外，在远月交易的市场逻辑里，春节后的需求回归也是一个可以博弈的 点。 2、纯碱估值弹性有限，供应端没有趋势性减产的情况下难以给到产业利润。我们对纯碱的定性依旧是过剩， 估值上跟随成本而动。价格往下需要看到上游厂家的快速累库，往上则需要看到供应"故事"或是成本"故 事"，短期都难以实现，价格或窄幅震荡为主。 3、现实层面，无论供应预期如何变化，目前玻璃中游的高库存需要被消化（因此期现正反馈持续性比较短 暂）；至于纯碱，产量仍有上升空间，产能扩张周期也 ...

国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2026年2月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：中期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内国内浮法玻璃产线略有波动，江苏两条浮法产线计划外放水，涉及产能1200吨。截至2026年2月5日，国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后 | | --- | --- | | | 共计296条(19.95万吨/日），其中在产211条，冷修停产85条。全国浮法玻璃日产量为14.98万吨，比29日-0.79% | | | 本周（20260130-0205）浮法玻璃行业平均开工率71.86%，环比持平；浮法玻璃行业平均产能利用率75.61%，环比-0.09个百分点。截止2月5日， | | | 浮法玻璃日度损失量4.968万吨，环比+2.48%，周度损失量34.06万吨，环比+0.35%。 | | 需求 | 深加工： 截至20260115，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.3天，环比+7.9%，同比+86.4%。目前来看，随着春节脚步临近，加工厂多数进 | | | 入赶 ...

Group 1: Construction Materials - The completion end of construction materials is expected to reach a long-term turning point in 2026, driven by factors such as a narrowing decline in new housing completions, improving second-hand housing transaction volumes, and a significant increase in the stock of homes entering the renovation cycle [1][10][20] - The demand structure has been significantly impacted by economic pressures, leading to a delay in renovation needs, but positive changes are anticipated in the future, with a dual positive shift expected in the industry due to continuous supply contraction [1][21][33] - The glass supply is notably shrinking, approaching a supply-demand balance, with a focus on price elasticity in 2026, highlighting the importance of companies like Qibin Group [1][43] Group 2: Construction Start Materials - Profit recovery in the construction start materials sector is underway, but further policy support is needed for a sustained trend. The demand for construction starts is primarily driven by new real estate projects and infrastructure [2][14] - The cement industry has seen a significant exit of over 160 million tons of actual capacity, leading to a relatively stable price environment and improved profit margins for companies with cost advantages, such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [2][33] Group 3: New Materials - The report emphasizes the potential of electronic yarn, carbon fiber, and TCO glass. The electronic yarn sector is experiencing price increases due to high demand driven by the AI industry [3][17] - Carbon fiber demand is expected to grow rapidly, driven by the wind energy sector and aerospace applications, with companies like Zhongfu Shenying being highlighted for their growth potential [3][20] - TCO glass is entering a commercial application phase, with significant production capacity planned by companies such as BOE Technology and JinkoSolar, indicating a strong future demand for this material [3][23] Group 4: Key Investment Targets - Key investment targets include companies like Sankeshu (603737.SH), Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ), and Rabbit Baby (002043.SZ), with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating potential for investment [6][7] - The report maintains a buy rating for companies like China Jushi (600176.SH) and Zhongfu Shenying (688295.SH), reflecting confidence in their growth prospects in the new materials sector [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials sector, particularly focusing on price increase chains and structural prosperity chains [3][14]. Core Insights - The building materials sector is currently experiencing a price increase chain, with fiberglass leading the way due to a significant price rise in ordinary electronic cloth, which is expected to enhance profitability in the fiberglass sector [3][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming months (March-April) for potential growth, suggesting that investors should continue to focus on key sectors such as electronic cloth, domestic coatings/waterproofing, domestic cement, and domestic glass [3][14]. - The report highlights the potential of companies like Shengfeng Cement, which has a stable business model and is investing in new economic projects, indicating a strong cash flow and future investment returns [4][16]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The building materials sector is performing well, driven by price increases, particularly in fiberglass and electronic cloth [3][14]. - The report suggests a focus on structural prosperity chains and external demand chains, with a positive outlook for various sub-sectors [3][14]. Market Performance - The building materials index decreased by 0.67%, with specific sectors like glass manufacturing showing a 2.00% increase, while cement manufacturing saw a decline of 1.05% [21]. - The report notes that the average price of cement is currently 342 RMB/ton, down 53 RMB/ton year-on-year, with a national average shipment rate of 24.6% [17][31]. Price Changes in Building Materials - The average price of float glass increased to 1154.49 RMB/ton, reflecting a rise of 9.69 RMB/ton, with inventory levels showing a slight increase [17][44]. - The report indicates that the price of electronic cloth has risen significantly, enhancing the profitability outlook for the fiberglass sector [3][14]. Industry Trends - The report identifies a strong demand for AI-PCB upstream materials, particularly in substrate materials, driven by CPU shortages and price increases in downstream products [5][16]. - The report also highlights the importance of UTG glass and TCO glass in the aerospace energy sector, driven by advancements in solar energy production [4][15].

（编辑 王雪儿） 证券日报网讯 2月8日，北玻股份发布公告称，截至本公告日，包括此次担保在内，公司累计为子公司 提供担保金额为7020万元，占公司2024年度经审计净资产的3.14%，且均为对合并报表范围内控股子公 司天津北玻提供担保。公司（含控股子公司）不存在对合并报表之外的单位提供担保的情形，亦不存在 逾期担保、涉及诉讼的担保及因担保被判决败诉而应承担损失的情形。 ...

证券之星消息，根据企查查数据显示彩虹股份（600707）公布了一项国际专利申请，专利名为"一种基 于钼电极加热的高世代基板玻璃窑炉及防氧化方法"，专利申请号为PCT/CN2025/111225，国际公布日 为2026年2月5日。 数据来源：企查查 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 图片来源：世界知识产权组织（WIPO） 今年以来彩虹股份已公布的国际专利申请6个。结合公司2025年中报财务数据，2025上半年公司在研发 方面投入了2.09亿元，同比减4.11%。 专利详情如下： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Glass should be treated with an oscillating and slightly bullish mindset, with the glass index ranging from 1010 - 1160 [7] - For纯碱, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the纯碱 index ranging from 1120 - 1270 [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Price - As of January 30, the market price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to the end of December; in Central China, it was 1020 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The glass prices in mainstream markets are running strongly [13] Supply - After the cold - repair, the float glass production in January decreased, but new production lines were ignited in the second half of the month. The current supply decline has improved the supply - demand pattern, supporting prices. Future supply changes depend on price impacts on cold - repair expectations [19] Demand - Real estate completion in December 2025 was still at a low level year - on - year, and the sales situation improved but was still at a low level. Automobile production and sales in December 2025 both decreased month - on - month. The year - end rush - to - work demand weakened month - on - month. Although the glass supply decline stimulated mid - and downstream restocking demand in January, the post - holiday apparent demand is expected to be weak due to high mid - stream inventory and limited demand recovery [23][26][30] Inventory - In January, the glass factory inventory decreased, and the mid - stream inventory continued to rise. During the Spring Festival holiday, the glass factory inventory will increase, and the high mid - stream inventory will have a negative impact on post - holiday spot prices and suppress speculative demand [34] Profit and Cost - The glass costs using natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke as fuels changed little, and the glass profits of the three production methods showed mixed trends. The profit of glass using natural gas as fuel increased from - 186.4 yuan/ton to - 155.12 yuan/ton; that using coal decreased from - 21.88 yuan/ton to - 68.5 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke increased from - 7.21 yuan/ton to 1.07 yuan/ton [38] Basis and Spread - As of January 30, the glass 05 basis was - 36, a month - on - month increase of 51 compared to the end of December; the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 111, a month - on - month decrease of 7. The spot price was strong, the futures price was volatile, the basis strengthened, and the spread weakened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years, and the market is optimistic about the supply - demand pattern of the far - month contracts [42] 纯碱 Price - As of December 31, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 880 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the market price of heavy soda ash was 1164 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 42 yuan/ton. The mainstream market light soda ash price is running weakly, and the heavy soda ash price is running strongly [48] Supply - In January, after the alkali plant maintenance ended, the production of soda ash returned to a high level, and new production capacity will be put into operation in the first quarter of this year, with long - term supply pressure. The current high supply has a strong downward driving force on prices. The impact of price on alkali plant maintenance willingness needs to be focused on, and the production in February is expected to remain at a high level [52] Demand - In January, the production of float glass and photovoltaic glass decreased, and the demand for heavy soda ash weakened, while the demand for light soda ash was relatively stable. In February, the impact of float glass price on supply needs to be noted. The low price of soda ash increased the consumption of soda ash by glass factories, which has a certain positive impact on demand [58] Import and Export - In December 2025, the import volume of soda ash was 3473 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3221 tons; the export volume was 232,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,400 tons. Domestic supply - demand is loose, and exports are expected to remain at a high level, alleviating the inventory pressure of alkali plants [62] Inventory - Before the festival, downstream restocking and increased soda ash consumption per ton of glass led to a small increase in alkali plant inventory. In February, with high supply, the alkali plant inventory is expected to further accumulate, putting downward pressure on prices [65] Cost - In January, the cost of soda ash remained stable. The supply concentration of alkali plants is high, and the cost support of the light soda ash联产 method in East China is around 1210 yuan/ton [69] Profit - The price of soda ash was strong, the cost was stable, and the profit of alkali plants was weak. The light soda ash gross profit of the ammonia - soda process in North China decreased from - 57.4 yuan/ton to - 100.35 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash gross profit decreased from - 137.4 yuan/ton to - 160.35 yuan/ton. The light soda ash gross profit of the 联碱 method in East China decreased from - 28.5 yuan/ton to - 34.5 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash gross profit decreased from - 88.5 yuan/ton to - 94.5 yuan/ton [72] Basis and Spread - As of January 30, the 05 contract basis of soda ash was - 40, a month - on - month increase of 47 compared to the end of December; the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 62, a month - on - month increase of 3. The spot price was strong, the futures price was volatile, the basis and spread strengthened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years, and the market is optimistic about the supply - demand pattern of the far - month contracts [76]

陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 日熔量降至低位， 去库持续性仍不足 玻璃月报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2026/02/06 产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力煤、 天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 价格：截至2026/02/05，浮法玻璃现货市场报价1020元/吨，环比持平；玻璃主力合约收盘报1088元/吨，环比+1元/吨；基差-68元/吨，环 比上周-1元/吨。 成本利润：截至2026/02/05，以天然气为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为-167.97元/吨，环比-12.85元/吨；河南LNG市场低端价3950元/吨， 环比+50元/吨。以煤炭为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为-67.92元/吨， ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月3日，摩根大通增持福莱特玻璃(06865)152.7366万 股，每股作价11.1598港元，总金额约为1704.51万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为6306.62万股，最新持 股比例为14.27%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Haosen Financial Technology (03848) has announced a loan financing agreement with Huizhou Wanyelung Glass Technology Co., Ltd., involving a loan amount of RMB 14.66 million at an annual interest rate of 21.6% for a duration of 12 months [1] Group 1 - The loan amount is RMB 14.66 million, which is approximately 2.1 million USD [1] - The annual interest rate for the loan is set at 21.6%, reflecting the financial background of the borrower and current market conditions [1] - The loan agreement is established for a term of 12 months, indicating a short-term financing strategy [1]