Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][17] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth target of 9% for 2025, with a positive outlook for the upcoming years despite a slight adjustment in profit forecasts due to a slow recovery in liquor consumption [6][7] - The company reported a total revenue of 174.1 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, and a net profit of 86.2 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [6][9] - The company aims to maintain stable pricing for its flagship products while optimizing its product and channel structures to ensure continued growth [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 92.1%, with a net profit margin of 51.3%, indicating stable profitability [9][11] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 95.6 billion yuan, 105.9 billion yuan, and 114.4 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.9%, 10.7%, and 8.1% [6][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 76.10 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.6, 18.6, and 17.2 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [6][11][14] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company generated revenue of 145.9 billion yuan from its flagship liquor and 24.7 billion yuan from its series liquor, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.3% and 19.7%, respectively [7][8] - The wholesale channel outperformed the direct sales channel, with revenues of 95.8 billion yuan and 74.8 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 19.7% and 11.3% [8][9] Market Strategy - The company is actively optimizing its channel structure to address supply-demand mismatches, expanding beyond traditional distributors to include restaurants, supermarkets, and e-commerce platforms [8][9] - The company is focusing on maintaining a stable price for its flagship products while increasing market share through enhanced product offerings and strategic channel management [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 15% in 2024, with a target revenue growth of 9% for 2025 [1][5]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 174.14 billion yuan, with a net profit of 86.23 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 15.66% and 15.38%, respectively [1][5]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 75% for 2024, consistent with its dividend return plan [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company expects revenue from Moutai liquor to reach 145.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.28%, and a sales volume of 46,000 tons, up 10.22% [2]. - The series liquor segment is anticipated to grow faster than Moutai liquor, with a revenue of 24.68 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.65% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Moutai liquor is projected to decline slightly due to increased labor costs, while the wholesale channel is expected to grow significantly [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with expected revenues of 190.75 billion yuan and 207.07 billion yuan, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 9.5% and 8.6% [5][11]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 94.27 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [5][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 75.04 yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 9.3% [5][11]. Market Strategy - The company aims to respect market dynamics in its product launch strategy, focusing on stabilizing prices and adjusting distribution channels for its products [4]. - The sales model for Moutai 1935 is undergoing reform, with expected growth concentrated in kilogram packaging and cultural IP products [4]. - Increased marketing expenses are planned to expand diversified channels and promote genuine consumer engagement [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in various indicators for 2024, with digital transformation yielding initial results. Key products, membership assets, and strategic terminal quality have all improved. The company aims to focus on market cultivation and enhance profitability through digital empowerment [2][3] - For 2025, the company will emphasize sales and implement six major shifts in marketing strategy, focusing on consumer-centric approaches and digitalization to drive growth [4][5] - The management's strengths and marketing execution capabilities are highlighted as core advantages in a competitive industry landscape, with a strategic focus on long-term digital transformation [5][6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 31.805 billion, 33.491 billion, and 36.898 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5.2%, 5.3%, and 10.2% respectively. Net profit is projected at 13.883 billion, 14.817 billion, and 16.619 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.8%, 6.7%, and 12.2% [7][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are forecasted to be 9.43, 10.07, and 11.29 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.4, 12.6, and 11.2 [2][10] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 60%, leading to a projected dividend yield of 4.5% in 2024, providing strong valuation support [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luzhou Laojiao is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Luzhou Laojiao achieved steady growth in 2024, with digital transformation showing initial results. Key performance indicators such as core product opening rates, membership assets, and the number and quality of strategic terminals have all improved. The company aims to focus on market cultivation and enhance profitability through its distributors in 2025, maintaining a long-term perspective [2][3][4] Summary by Sections 2024 Performance Review - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao's revenue and net profit grew by 11% and 10% year-on-year, respectively. The company is expected to achieve record-high performance, with the Guojiao brand sales exceeding 20 billion and Luzhou Laojiao brand sales surpassing 10 billion. The digital transformation framework has been established, leading to improvements in core product opening numbers and terminal quality [3][4] 2025 Outlook - For 2025, the company will focus on six major shifts in its marketing strategy, emphasizing sales and consumer-centric approaches. The strategy includes deepening market penetration in strategic areas and enhancing digital capabilities to support sales and channel management [4][5] Management and Digital Transformation - Luzhou Laojiao's management capabilities and marketing execution remain strong, with a proactive sales team that excels in network refinement and consumer engagement. The company is leading the industry in digital transformation, transitioning from a "single merchant model" to a "single customer model" to drive channel profitability [5][6] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 31.805 billion, 33.491 billion, and 36.898 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.2%, 5.3%, and 10.2%. The projected net profit for the same period is 13.883 billion, 14.817 billion, and 16.619 billion, reflecting growth rates of 4.8%, 6.7%, and 12.2%. The current stock price corresponds to a valuation of 13.4x, 12.6x, and 11.2x for the respective years, indicating a strong valuation support [7][10]