三五知己，推杯换盏，两杯小酒既可以在餐桌上成为主角，成为调节气氛的利器；也能够让人暂时忘却 俗世的烦恼，获得短暂的愉悦。 对于拥有主场优势的白酒来说，这本来是自带buff的绝妙开局。但白酒行业自2021年开始年年跑输大盘 的疲软，似乎又证明了事情并不如想象中那么美妙。 白酒，"等待戈多" 在年初发布的2025年酒业市场走向预测中，中国酒业协会曾明确表示，"白酒头部领军企业稳步前行， 整体态势2025年优于2024年，酒业前景一片向好"。 本文来自微信公众号：新周刊 （ID：new-weekly），作者：梓晨，编辑：DR，头图来自：AI生成 中国人爱喝酒，也需要酒精的作用。 而现在，随着消费回归理性，原本就处于调整周期的白酒行业，也放下了年内向上反弹的期望。 然而，事实证明，行业"触底反弹"的前提是已经"见底"。 2025年5月，随着相关规定出台，贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖等头部白酒企业股价集体下挫，单日跌 幅均超2%。 继消费面的挑战之后，白酒业再遭政策面的影响，关于行业的前景描述变成了"产业升级迫在眉睫"。 半年后，中国酒业协会发布的《2025中国白酒市场中期研究报告》显示，商务宴请在半年内的市场中占 比持 ...

本文来自微信公众号： 秦朔朋友圈 （ID：qspyq2015） ，作者：何菲，题图来自：AI生成 明显感觉到，我生活的时代，我生活的城市和这座城市的人，到处都在转型。 大约在千禧初年到2017、2018年左右，我们友人之间小酌多数是喝红酒，不管真懂还是假懂，总得 在饮上一口后，用风雅感性的词汇评价一番。为此我还浮光掠影地研究过几年红酒，写过不少相关文 章。 后来，红酒热潮渐渐退去，进入平台期，身边友人们小酌的风格偏好渐渐往白酒方向转化。 前几年某次友人小聚，我坐在中医药大学少壮派教授身边，他执意鼓励我喝点白酒，说是补气、抗病 毒。从此我小酌时的主流佐餐酒换成了白酒。记得那天还有友人往白酒壶里加了半壶蒜瓣，说是能杀 灭病毒。坊间也有"加了蒜片的光瓶玻汾，能喝出青花汾的味道来"的传说。 杯里乾坤大，壶中日月长。 世界六大蒸馏酒的诞生地都分布在北纬25～40度之间，中国的两大名酒带——川贵名酒带和江淮名 酒带，都处于这个地理位置。 有很多年，白酒一直延续高端化的宏大叙事，有"向天再借五百年"的气势，代言人都是影视剧里常常 出现的帝王将相，再低调也是千里江山、雄厚激荡的调性，白酒似乎是传统文化的集大成者。 那些年，飞 ...

积梦智能 CEO、腾讯云 TVP 谢孟军 6月20日，由上海人工智能实验室、腾讯云TVP 、泸州老窖·国窖1573研究院联合主办的「智汇制造 创赢未来」腾 讯云TVP AI研讨会暨泸州老窖·国窖1573研究院智库研讨会在上海成功举办。在本次活动中，专家们现场参观全国 首个大模型创新生态社区"模速空间"，直观体验 AI 前沿技术与创新应用的碰撞。来自智能制造、数字化、AI 等 领域大咖，围绕AI技术、应用落地、行业实践心得等展开深入研讨。活动特设头脑风暴环节，各位专家畅所欲 言，进行精彩的观点碰撞，共同探讨AI的现在和未来。 主持人开场 主持人积梦智能 CEO、腾讯云 TVP 谢孟军在活动伊始时表示，我们处在一个变革之年，通用大模型加速落地， AI正从任务型算法迈向认知智能。与此同时，具身智能的崛起打破虚拟与物理世界的界限，推动行业进入生产力 革新阶段。今天，期待与各位专家老师共探大模型、具身智能的多元落地路径，为产业智能化升级提速助力。 主办方致辞 泸州老窖股份有限公司党委副书记、总经理、泸州老窖·国窖1573研究院执行院长 林锋 泸州老窖股份有限公司党委副书记、总经理、泸州老窖·国窖1573研究院执行院长 ...

Group 1 - The perception of Moutai's price floor is high among consumers, leading them to believe that prices will not drop below certain levels, such as 1500 yuan or 1000 yuan [1][4] - Many consumers purchase Moutai not for consumption but as a status symbol or investment, indicating its luxury brand status [3][5] - The demand for high-end liquor has significantly decreased due to changing consumption scenarios, particularly in business contexts, which has affected the overall market for premium liquor [5][12] Group 2 - The current market environment shows a lack of confidence in the future of high-end liquor, with excess production capacity and reduced consumer demand [6][12] - Liquor manufacturers face two potential strategies: controlling supply to stabilize prices or increasing market supply while lowering prices and quality [8][9] - Historical examples illustrate that many once-premium liquor brands have transitioned to lower-tier products, raising concerns about the long-term value of current high-end offerings [11][12] Group 3 - The recommendation for consumers is to assess their actual need for liquor rather than purchasing for speculative purposes, especially given the current market dynamics [12][13] - If Moutai's price were to drop significantly, it could lead to a shift in its perception as a premium product, impacting its use in high-end business settings [12][13]

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 07 月 10 日 行业及产业 食品饮料 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 《啤酒行业跟踪报告：啤酒进入消费旺季，燕 京啤酒 U8 放量》2025-06-27 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：白酒持续筑底，聚 焦高景气主线》2025-06-09 证券分析师 范林泉 S0820525020001 021-32229888-25516 fanlinquan@ajzq.com 白酒仍在筑底，关注大众品结构性机会 ——食品饮料行业跟踪报告 周度跟踪：本周（6.30-7.04）食品饮料板块+0.62%，表现弱于沪深 300 指数（+1.54%）， 在 31 个申万子行业中排名第 20。食品饮料子板块中，涨跌幅由高到低分别为：白酒 （+1.19%），烘焙食品（+1.10%），肉制品（+0.93%），预加工食品（+0.26%），熟食 （+0.16%），调味发酵品（+0.04%），其他酒类（+0.03%），保健品（-0.34%），啤酒 （-0.45%），乳品（-0.66%），软饮料（-1.87%），零食（-1.9 ...

晨会主题 【常规内容】 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月08日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-07-07 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3473.12 | 10435.50 | 3965.17 | 11927.72 | 3000.59 | 978.29 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.02 | -0.69 | -0.42 | -0.10 | -0.30 | -0.66 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4761.97 | 7324.43 | 2251.06 | 2668.02 | 3465.09 | 175.19 | 行业与公司 汽车行业专题:人形机器人系列专题之新型减速器-摆线减速器有望成为 人形机器人新的迭代方向 机械行业周报:制造成长周报（第 21 期）-中央财经委员会提出推动海洋 经济发展，字节跳动 2 年半量产千台机器人 食品饮料周报（25 年第 27 周）：茅台价格趋稳，关注板块中报业绩表 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly Moutai, is stabilizing in price, and attention should be paid to the second-quarter performance of the sector [3][12]. - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase of 0.74% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.67 percentage points [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand and market health, with companies focusing on destocking and promoting sales in the short term while nurturing consumer engagement and internationalization in the long term [14][21]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's stock buyback reached 3.3821 million shares, accounting for 0.27% of total shares, with a total expenditure of 5.202 billion yuan [3][12]. - The liquor index increased by 1.2%, indicating a potential valuation recovery driven by incremental policies [14]. - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, which have demonstrated resilience through multiple cycles [14][21]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that the recent warm weather is favorable for beer consumption, with expectations for slight sales growth among major beer brands [15]. - The snack sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies that are innovating in products and channels [16][17]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the seasoning industry, such as Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring, as they show resilience [18]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is stable, with companies actively developing new products despite the off-season [19]. - Anji Food's recent IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised 2.302 billion HKD, which will be used to enhance sales networks and optimize supply chains [19]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with supply pressures easing and potential policy catalysts on the horizon [20]. - The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies that are well-positioned for upward elasticity in 2025 [20]. Beverages - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [21]. - The report recommends East Peak Beverage, which is accelerating its national and platform expansion [21].

Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment and transformation in the consumer market, with a decline in production among large-scale enterprises in 2024, yet leading companies are still seeing growth in revenue and profit, indicating an increase in industry concentration [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is leveraging its dual-brand matrix of "Guojiao" (over 20 billion) and "Luzhou Laojiao" (over 10 billion) to navigate market fluctuations [1] - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns by increasing dividend rates over the next 5-10 years, while focusing on strategies such as "lower alcohol content, youth-oriented, scenario-based, and digitalization" [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao reported revenue of 31.196 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion, up 1.71% year-on-year [1] - The "Guojiao" brand exceeded 20 billion, while "Luzhou Laojiao" surpassed 10 billion, supported by a strategy of "dual brands, three product lines, and major single products" [1] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on the "lower alcohol content" innovation as a strategic priority, with plans to launch a 28-degree product and consider even lower alcohol content options [1] - The 38-degree Guojiao 1573 has gained market acceptance, with sales accounting for approximately 50% and nearing 10 billion in scale [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is expanding into lower-tier markets and has doubled its online network system in the first four months, with expectations to further expand market reach over the next five years [1] Competitive Advantage - The company emphasizes a strategy of "opening bottles as king," aiming to deepen its presence in grassroots markets and optimize its channel system to enhance its ability to respond to market changes [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is committed to a "culture + technology" strategy, focusing on innovation and quality to write a new chapter in the development of the liquor industry [1]

Market Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a new adjustment cycle, transitioning from "volume competition" to "value creation" [1] - In 2024, the total production of large-scale enterprises was 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, with a 7.2% decline in Q1 [1] - Despite the production decline, industry revenue and profit grew by 5.3% and 7.8% respectively in 2024, indicating a shift towards "quality improvement" and "brand influence" [1] Industry Trends - The concentration of the industry has increased, with the top six liquor companies accounting for 86% of total industry profits in 2024, up over 30 percentage points from ten years ago [1] - The brand "Guojiao 1573" is now one of the top three high-end liquor brands in China, with a leading national market presence [1][2] Consumer Behavior - Consumer preferences are shifting from "quantity satisfaction" to "quality pursuit," with younger demographics (post-85s and post-90s) favoring personalized and lower-alcohol products [3] - Consumption scenarios are diversifying, with stable growth in traditional events and emerging trends in cultural experiences and technology integration [3][4] Sales and Marketing Strategies - Instant retail transactions for liquor grew over 65% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reflecting a shift towards immediate consumption [4] - The company is enhancing its marketing focus from "channel pressure" to "precise reach" and "user operation" [4] Company Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 31.196 billion RMB in 2024, a 482.73% increase from 2014, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.27% [6] - Net profit reached 13.473 billion RMB in 2024, a 1431.18% increase from 2014, with a compound annual growth rate of 31.37% [6] Strategic Advantages - The company has implemented a comprehensive strategy since the 13th Five-Year Plan, focusing on governance, market share, brand culture, quality, and talent [5] - The company has established a quality traceability system across the entire production chain, enhancing product quality and efficiency [8] Innovation and Development - The company is actively developing lower-alcohol products, with a focus on 38-degree and 28-degree variants, responding to market demand [11] - The company has built an ecological park with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of high-quality solid-state liquor [8] Social Responsibility - From 2015 to 2024, the company invested approximately 274 million RMB in public welfare, receiving multiple awards for its contributions [10] - The cumulative cash dividends since the company's listing reached 52.059 billion RMB, with a dividend rate of 61.58%, ranking among the top in A-share companies [10]

泸州老窖股份有限公司 （住所：四川省泸州市国窖广场） 泸州老窖股份有限公司公司债券 受托管理事务报告 （2024 年度） 债券受托管理人 （住所：北京市朝阳区建国门外大街 1 号国贸大厦 2 座 27 层及 28 层） 二〇二五年六月 重要声明 本报告依据《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》（以下简称《管理办法》）、 《公司债券受托管理人执业行为准则》（以下简称《执业行为准则》）、证券交 易所公司债券上市规则（以下简称"上市规则"）或证券交易所公司债券挂牌转 让规则（以下简称"挂牌转让规则"）、发行人与中国国际金融股份有限公司（以 下简称"中金公司"或"受托管理人"）签订的债券受托管理协议（以下简称"受 托管理协议"）及其它相关信息披露文件以及泸州老窖股份有限公司（以下简称 "发行人"或"公司"）出具的相关说明文件和提供的相关资料等，由受托管理 人中金公司编制。中金公司编制本报告的内容及信息均来源于泸州老窖股份有限 公司提供的资料或说明。 本报告不构成对投资者进行或不进行某项行为的推荐意见，投资者应对相关 事宜作出独立判断，而不应将本报告中的任何内容据以作为中金公司所作的承诺 或声明。在任何情况下，未经中金公司书面 ...