行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 01 月 12 日 食品饮料 证券研究报告 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茅台加速营销市场 化转型，普飞上架 i 茅台》2026-01-05 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：扩内需提至战略高 度，五粮液主动求变》2025-12-22 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茅台控量稳价，批 价反弹回升》2025-12-15 会，稳健姿态应对行业调整》2025-12-08 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茅台理性定调，不 唯指标论》2025-12-01 范林泉 S0820525020001 021-32229888-25516 fanlinquan@ajzq.com 朱振浩 S0820125020001 021-32229888-25515 zhuzhenhao@ajzq.com 行业及产业 i 茅台抢购热度高，C 端触达效果显著 ——食品饮料行业跟踪报告 白酒：酒企步入业绩快速出清通道。随着政策压力逐渐消退，在扩消费政策催化下，需求有 望弱复苏。行业目前处于估值低位，悲观预期充分，预计后续行业出清 ...

茅台市场化探索，看好大众品出行需求 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 ——食品饮料行业周报 | | | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 张宇轩(分析师) | 021-23154172 | zhangyuxuan@gtht.com | S0880525040039 | | 李美仪(分析师) | 021-38038667 | limeiyi@gtht.com | S0880524080002 | 本报告导读： 扩内需逐步被提升至战略地位，消费板块有望触底反弹。白酒板块加速探底，迈向 供需平衡。大众品板块看好出行以及礼盒相关的软饮料、休闲食品、餐饮、乳制品 需求。 投资要点： 食品饮料《白酒探底，乳制品国产替代有望加 速》2025.12.28 食品饮料 ...

对此，贵州茅台在这次大会上披露了如下营销方向： 1、致力让茅台的产品和价格，适配市场需求和消费意愿； 历史上，茅台酒一直都处于供不应求的状态，市场长时间是在卖方一边，但最近几年，随着消费环境的 变化，原有的营销模式也需要与时俱进了。 2025年，整个消费板块的表现普遍不佳，这是CPI持续低迷和规模以上工业企业利润总额不断下滑所导 致的，影响的不仅仅是茅台，也不仅仅是白酒，可以说衣食住行各方各面都受到了波及。 2、在2026年的投放计划中，适当减少高附加值产品的量； 3、要价格合理稳预期，让产品价格随行就市； 12月28日，2026年贵州茅台酒全国经销商联谊会召开，会议的主题是"坚持以消费者为中心，全面推进 茅台酒营销市场化转型"，这是贵州茅台营销发展史上的重大事件。 这些变革措施，对茅台，对白酒，乃至对整个消费板块的意义都是重大的。可以说，虽然短期还有价格 起伏，但就2026年全年情况来看，普飞的价格基本可以稳住了。 而且厂家直供的经销商直接对终端销售，可以最大程度保证消费者用比较低的价格买到真酒，这既能防 止分销商低价抛货，扰乱市场整体价格，又能从根本上避免假酒扩散。 价格稳住，假酒消散，茅台就没有问题。茅 ...

文 丨 《 BUG》栏目 轩墨 12月28日，贵州茅台酒全国经销商联谊会在贵阳召开。《酒业内参》现场看到，开场前，包括茅台集团党委书记、董事长陈华在内的高管 们列队门口，对渠道商鼓掌欢迎。 针对2026年，茅台披露了更加详细的规划。 产品上，茅台强调产品价格随行就市，"必须想尽一切办法，尽最大努力防止价格炒作"。新年投放计划中，茅台将不再使用分销方式，适 当减少高附加值产品的量，打造"普飞-精品-陈年"的"金字塔"型产品体系。 茅台集团党委副书记、董事、代总经理王莉表示，"要把精品打造为又一大单品。" 新浪财经《酒业内参》现场看到，下午两点，正值会议前夕，包括陈华、王莉等在内的一众高管列队会议中心门口，对到场的渠道商鼓掌 欢迎。 今年以来，白酒行业经历了前所未有的深度调整，价格倒挂、库存高企等多个问题困扰着诸多酒企。 而或许也是正基于该种情况，茅台对新年经销商大会主题提出了两个关键词：消费者和市场营销化。该如何服务好消费者，又怎么推动市 场化？茅台的一众高管们给出了答案。 陈华坦言，茅台当前存在短板和问题，例如市场化程度不高，应对市场变化的灵活性不足；消费端触达的能力亟待增强；渠道生态还需进 一步优化等等。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The expansion of domestic demand is being elevated to a strategic level, and the consumption sector is expected to rebound from the bottom. The liquor sector, particularly Wuliangye, is set to focus on high-quality sales and market share enhancement for 2026. The dairy product sector is anticipated to experience a cyclical reversal [3][9] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes growth as the main line of investment, highlighting opportunities at turning points under supply and demand clearing. Recommended stocks include: 1. Liquor: Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jiuziyuan, Zhenjiu Lidu, Shede Liquor, and Jinhuijiu for growth; Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao as stable picks [8] 2. Beverages: Eastroc Beverage and Nongfu Spring (Hong Kong stock) for structural high growth; China Foods, Master Kong Holdings, Uni-President China, and China Wangwang (all Hong Kong stocks) for low valuation and high dividends [8] 3. Snacks and food raw materials: Recommended stocks include Bailong Chuangyuan, Yanjinpuzi, Weilong Delicious (Hong Kong stock), Three Squirrels, and Ximai Foods [8] 4. Beer: Recommendations include Yanjing Beer, Qingdao Beer, Zhujiang Beer, and China Resources Beer (Hong Kong stock) [8] 5. Seasonings and livestock: Recommended stocks include Qianhe Flavor Industry, Baoli Foods, Babi Foods, Anjui Foods, Haitian Flavoring, Angel Yeast, Yili, New Dairy, Youran Livestock (Hong Kong stock), and Modern Animal Husbandry (Hong Kong stock) [8] Liquor Sector - Wuliangye has set its 2026 target as a "Year of Marketing Integrity and Innovation," focusing on enhancing market share and product matrix restructuring. The company aims to ensure channel collaboration and protect merchant rights, with a focus on maintaining high-end liquor market share while restructuring the pricing system [10][11][13] Consumer Goods - The dairy product sector is expected to see a cyclical reversal, driven by new fertility policies and domestic demand expansion. The Eastroc Beverage is expanding its product categories and is expected to exceed market expectations [14][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai with a target price of 2600 yuan [2][6]. Core Views - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 2025 results show a pragmatic slowdown with total revenue of 1309.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit of 646.3 billion yuan, also up 6.2% year-on-year. Q3 alone generated revenue of 398.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3%, and a net profit of 192.2 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company is focusing on high-quality development while managing channel pressures and optimizing costs. The gross profit margin improved by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 1.0 percentage points due to reduced series liquor promotions [6][7]. - Management is actively addressing market changes and consumer needs, launching new products and services to enhance brand value and stabilize pricing. The new chairman emphasizes maintaining dealer network resilience and modernizing market management [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, Guizhou Moutai's revenue growth was driven by strong performance in the wholesale channel, which saw a 14.4% increase, while direct sales and iMoutai experienced declines of 14.9% and 57.2%, respectively [6][7]. - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, projecting total revenue of 184,879 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.2% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 72.44 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times, indicating a solid valuation outlook [7][8].

Core Viewpoints - The white liquor industry is currently under pressure, with high-end and mid-range products affected by economic and policy influences, leading to a decline in prices from approximately 2200 yuan to around 1850 yuan since the Spring Festival of 2025 [4][29] - The beer industry is expected to benefit from a low base effect in 2025, with a recovery in overall demand as the summer approaches, supported by favorable weather conditions and government consumption incentives [4][42] - The dairy industry is in a transitional phase, with prices expected to stabilize as demand improves and production levels off, leading to enhanced profitability for upstream and downstream companies [4][58] - The seasoning industry is experiencing steady demand, with a focus on high-end products and a resilient consumer base, despite short-term pressures from the restaurant sector [4][76] White Liquor - The high-end liquor segment remains a long-term investment opportunity, with leading brands maintaining market share despite current pressures [4][34] - The mid-range liquor market is facing intensified competition and declining sales, particularly in the business dining sector [4][36] - The overall valuation of leading white liquor companies is currently at historical lows, with expected valuations between 13-19 times for 2025 [4][4] Beer - The beer market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in production and sales during the summer months, particularly benefiting national brands [4][42] - The industry is moving towards a high-end product strategy, with significant growth in premium beer segments [4][47] - The overall market structure is becoming more concentrated, with the top five companies controlling over 90% of the market [4][47] Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a rebound in profitability as raw milk prices stabilize and consumer demand for high-quality products increases [4][58] - The long-term growth potential for dairy products remains strong, driven by rising disposable incomes and changing consumer preferences [4][63] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards premium products, with a focus on high-end milk and cheese offerings [4][74] Seasoning Products - The seasoning industry is characterized by stable demand, with a focus on health and premiumization trends [4][76] - The restaurant sector's recovery is anticipated to positively impact seasoning sales, particularly in the B2B market [4][76] - Cost reductions in raw materials are expected to support profitability in the seasoning industry [4][76] Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector is projected to maintain strong growth, driven by the increasing chain restaurant market and consumer demand for convenience [4][41] - Leading companies in the frozen food industry are expected to capture market share from smaller competitors due to their scale and distribution advantages [4][41] Food Additives - The food additives market is experiencing significant growth potential, with a trend towards natural and healthy ingredients [4][41]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Baijiu and Snack Food Sectors Baijiu Industry Insights - Moutai prices have slightly rebounded, with expected batch prices fluctuating between 2,100 and 2,200 RMB, and an increase in non-standard products leading to a slight rise in total inventory [1][3] - Wuliangye's batch prices are above 920-925 RMB, but transaction volumes remain low, indicating low channel inventory [5][9] - Fenjiu is optimistic about growth, focusing on mid-tier products, with expectations for significant single-digit growth in marketing and profits for 2025 [1][10][13] - The overall baijiu industry is showing signs of cyclical adjustment, with a decrease in the number of large-scale enterprises and a slight increase in sales but a decline in profits [1][14] - Strict regulations on government consumption have led to a significant decline in business demand, with expectations of nearly double-digit declines [2][7] Snack Food Sector Insights - The snack food industry is still in an expansion phase, with stable single-store profit models and strong franchisee investment returns, averaging about two years [1][18][19] - The number of stores for brands like Mixue Ice City is increasing, with nearly 2,000 new stores opened in the first five months of 2025 [1][16][19] - The zero-sugar snack segment is experiencing rapid growth, with brands like Salted Fish expanding their product lines and improving profit margins through e-commerce channels [1][23] - The overall snack food market is projected to grow, with significant opportunities for companies with strong brands or continuous product innovation [1][31] Key Market Trends and Challenges - The baijiu market is facing challenges due to a decline in government consumption and overall economic conditions, leading to a cautious outlook from distributors [2][8] - Snack food brands are leveraging e-commerce and social media to enhance brand visibility and sales, indicating a shift towards online retail [20][22] - The competitive landscape is tightening, with top brands maintaining strong market positions while mid-tier brands struggle to sustain profitability [21][22] Recommendations for Investors - Focus on high-end baijiu brands and those with strong channel advantages, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, as they show better performance and execution capabilities [1][15] - Monitor the performance of snack food brands in the context of ongoing market expansion and franchisee confidence, as these factors could present investment opportunities [1][32] - Consider the impact of regulatory changes and economic conditions on traditional industries, particularly in the baijiu sector, when making investment decisions [1][7][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 15% in 2024, with a target revenue growth of 9% for 2025 [1][5]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 174.14 billion yuan, with a net profit of 86.23 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 15.66% and 15.38%, respectively [1][5]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 75% for 2024, consistent with its dividend return plan [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company expects revenue from Moutai liquor to reach 145.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.28%, and a sales volume of 46,000 tons, up 10.22% [2]. - The series liquor segment is anticipated to grow faster than Moutai liquor, with a revenue of 24.68 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.65% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Moutai liquor is projected to decline slightly due to increased labor costs, while the wholesale channel is expected to grow significantly [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with expected revenues of 190.75 billion yuan and 207.07 billion yuan, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 9.5% and 8.6% [5][11]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 94.27 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [5][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 75.04 yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 9.3% [5][11]. Market Strategy - The company aims to respect market dynamics in its product launch strategy, focusing on stabilizing prices and adjusting distribution channels for its products [4]. - The sales model for Moutai 1935 is undergoing reform, with expected growth concentrated in kilogram packaging and cultural IP products [4]. - Increased marketing expenses are planned to expand diversified channels and promote genuine consumer engagement [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][5][13] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 15.66% in 2024, with total revenue reaching 174.14 billion yuan and a net profit of 86.23 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.38% [1][5] - For 2025, the company aims for a revenue growth target of around 9%, with specific expectations for different product lines, including a projected 8-9% increase in revenue from Moutai liquor [4][5] - The company is actively enhancing its marketing strategies and diversifying its channels to foster consumer engagement and drive sales growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.38% [1][5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 51.02 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.77% increase year-on-year, with net profit reaching 25.40 billion yuan, up 16.21% [1][3] Product Performance - Moutai liquor generated revenue of 145.93 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15.28%, while series liquor revenue increased by 19.65% to 24.68 billion yuan [2][4] - The average price per ton of Moutai liquor rose to 3.144 million yuan, marking a 4.59% increase, driven by price adjustments in the market [2][3] Future Projections - The company anticipates a revenue target of approximately 190.75 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit forecast of 94.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.3% [5][12] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 75.04 yuan, with a continued focus on maintaining high profit margins [6][12] Market Strategy - The company plans to invest more in marketing activities and diversify its distribution channels to enhance consumer engagement and drive sales [4][5] - The strategy includes adjusting product offerings and pricing to stabilize market presence and respond to changing consumer preferences [4][5]