Report Overview - Report Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Pig Futures Daily Report - Author: Shi Xiangying [5] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall view is that the pig futures market will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4] - From the data of sows and piglets, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply [4] - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which is expected to continue strengthening seasonally, weakening the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and providing some support for pig prices [4] - The 2509 contract is basically at parity with the spot price, and the short - term fluctuations in pig prices are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Content Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On July 14, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 444 lots [2] - In the short term, there is limited room for further decline in spot prices. In the medium term, the fundamental contradictions in the pig market are not significant, and the LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting [2] - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,852 lots today, with a position of approximately 69,400 lots. The highest price was 14,305 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,185 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,285 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3] - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may oscillate and strengthen [3] - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the breeding sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons. The long - side logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak consumption season for live pigs in the third and fourth quarters [3] Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4] - The core logic is that the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue strengthening, which will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support pig prices; the 2509 contract is basically at parity with the spot price, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4] Market Overview - On July 14, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg or 0.54% compared to July 11. The prices in Henan and Sichuan also decreased [6] - Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 01, 03, 07 contracts increased, while the prices of the 05, 09, 11 contracts decreased. The main contract (LH2509) closed at 14,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton or 0.42% compared to July 11 [6] - The main basis in Henan decreased by 90 yuan/ton or 19.78% compared to July 11 [6] Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main contract in Henan, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts and the 11 - 01 contracts [14]

Group 1 - The extreme heat is posing a comprehensive challenge to production lines, affecting employee safety, equipment stability, raw material storage, and product transportation [1][2] - Companies are implementing measures such as slowing down production lines, increasing rest periods, and enhancing equipment inspections to ensure operational efficiency during high temperatures [1][2] - The industrial electricity demand is rapidly increasing due to sustained high temperatures, making the stability of power supply crucial for industrial operations [2][3] Group 2 - Companies are proactively preparing for high temperatures by developing summer safety management measures and conducting emergency drills to mitigate risks associated with equipment failures and increased energy consumption [2][3] - The integration of electrification, automation, and intelligence in production lines allows companies to respond flexibly to order demands without production issues [2][3] - The national peak electricity load is expected to increase by approximately 10 million kilowatts compared to the previous year, necessitating close monitoring of weather changes and power supply dynamics [3] Group 3 - Agricultural sectors are also facing challenges due to high temperatures, with farmers closely monitoring crop conditions and preparing irrigation plans in case of prolonged drought [4][5] - Livestock management is being adjusted to prevent heat stress, with recommendations for better feeding practices and environmental controls to ensure animal welfare during extreme heat [5][6] - The National Climate Center emphasizes the need for comprehensive measures to manage water resources and mitigate risks to crop yields from high temperatures [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of live pigs still exists, and the spot price is likely to face difficulties in continuing to strengthen. The futures market is also affected by the weakening of the spot price and is expected to show a certain degree of decline. The price will be in a state where both upward and downward movements are restricted [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Spot Information - Today's live pig spot prices generally declined. After the previous continuous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for selling pigs has recovered, but the overall price decline is limited. The short - term supply situation has improved, and the price increase momentum is restricted. The secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the subsequent supply pressure is still expected to exist [2]. - The prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged at 439 and 1621 respectively. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 133.87, an increase of 14.15 compared to the previous day, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 31.60, an increase of 57.86 compared to the previous day [2]. - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 2020 to 132,507 heads. The price difference between different sizes of pigs also changed, with the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs decreasing by 0.03 to 0.07 [2]. Futures Information - Today's live pig futures showed a fluctuating downward trend. After the previous rapid increase, the market's enthusiasm for further bullish sentiment has decreased, and the futures market has entered a high - level volatile state. The inter - month spread of the futures is expected to remain volatile due to the lack of obvious driving factors in the short term [2][4]. - Among the futures contracts, LH01 was 13,725, an increase of 20; LH03 was 12,990, an increase of 10; LH05 was 13,160, a decrease of 15; LH07 was 14,000, an increase of 50; LH09 was 14,285, a decrease of 60; LH11 was 13,605, a decrease of 40 [2]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading is expected to be mainly in a high - level volatile state - For arbitrage, conduct a long - short spread trade on the LH9 - 1 contract - For options, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [5]

罗牛山（000735）公告，2025年1月1日至2025年6月30日业绩预告期间，预计归属于上市公司股东的净 利润亏损660万元-850万元，上年同期为盈利2.75亿元；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润盈利620万元-800 万元，上年同期为盈利2.82亿元；基本每股收益亏损0.0057元/股-0.0074元/股，上年同期为盈利0.2384元 ／股。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Xinwufeng (600975) is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company ranging from 36 million to 54 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The anticipated net profit for the first half of 2025 represents a significant improvement compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery in financial performance [1] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 32.7 million and 49 million yuan [1]

华统股份（002840）公告，2025年6月份，公司生猪销售数量20.04万头，环比变动0.12%，同比下降 2.58%。生猪销售收入3.48亿元，环比下降3.60%，同比下降19.81%。商品猪销售均价14.2元/公斤，较 2025年5月份下降2.07%。鸡销售数量87.12万只，环比下降5.19%，同比下降10.63%。鸡销售收入 1243.15万元，环比下降17.08%，同比下降24.53%。上述销售数据未经审计。 ...

东瑞股份（001201）公告，预计2025年上半年净利润为260万元–390万元，上年同期为亏损1.1亿元，同 比上升102.36%-103.54%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dabeinong, expects a net profit of between 190 million and 250 million yuan for the first half of the year, indicating a turnaround from losses in the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit for the first half of the year is between 190 million and 250 million yuan, showing a significant improvement compared to the previous year [1] - The company has successfully turned around its financial performance, moving from a loss to profitability [1] Group 2: Operational Metrics - During the reporting period, the company's controlled and affiliated companies collectively sold 3.8347 million pigs, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.64% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The spot market is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. Based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and with sufficient supply, it's difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The strengthening of the fat - standard price difference may support pig prices, and the LH2509 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it's recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: The main contract (LH2509) of live pigs adjusted oscillatory this week. On July 11, 2025, the benchmark base difference was 455 yuan/ton, compared to 1015 yuan/ton on July 4, 2025 [1][2][3] - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts adjusted oscillatory [5] - **月间价差变化**: The 9 - 11 and 9 - 01 contract spreads showed strong performance [7][10] 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, compared with last week, both the price and the slaughter volume decreased [13] - **区域价差**: Regional price differences are relatively reasonable [15] - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference adjusted with an overall oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard price difference can strengthen seasonally. If so, it may weaken the market's willingness to reduce weight and even prompt the market to increase weight [17] - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [19] - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat is strengthening. If it continues to strengthen, it may reduce the substitution of fresh products for frozen products [21] - **养殖利润**: Self - breeding and self - raising still yield considerable profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening is in a state of slight loss [23] - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight continues to increase, which is negative for future pig prices [25] 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, at the end of May, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. Yongyi Consulting data shows that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and last month it was 0.92%. My steel data shows that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample of large - scale enterprises increased by 0.29% month - on - month, and last month it was 0.33% [27] - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [29] - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In June, the number of healthy piglets born decreased by 1.26% month - on - month (the previous value was +2.91%), corresponding to a halt in the increase and a turn to a decline in the number of slaughtered pigs in December this year (calculated based on a 6 - month fattening period) [31] - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets increased slightly, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [33] 4. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, in May, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 32.16 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral - negative [35] 5. Import End - In May 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [38]

Core Viewpoint - The Sichuan Provincial Government has issued the "Ten Measures to Promote High-Quality Development of Animal Husbandry," aimed at enhancing the entire animal husbandry industry chain and addressing existing challenges in the sector [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Existing Policy Continuation and Upgrade - The measures build upon existing effective policies to support the animal husbandry sector, which has been facing high breeding costs, with small to medium-sized pig farms averaging costs around 14 yuan per kilogram [3][4]. - The plan includes immediate storage actions when prices drop excessively, with a minimum storage amount of 3,000 tons during level one alerts [4]. Financial and Insurance Support - The upgrade of pig price insurance to comprehensive income insurance for pig farming includes risk coverage of up to 2,000 yuan per head, with additional death risk coverage of up to 1,200 yuan per head [4]. New Measures for Industry Development - The measures aim to support leading enterprises in participating in modern agricultural parks and industry clusters, with financial backing of 30 million yuan annually for qualifying projects [5][6]. - The initiative includes a brand cultivation plan for Sichuan's livestock products, promoting high-quality and distinctive regional brands [6]. Resource and Land Use Support - The measures propose support for major livestock projects to apply for local government special bonds and ensure land use policies are favorable for livestock production [6]. Overall Strategy - The "Ten Measures" are designed to enhance the entire animal husbandry industry by focusing on comprehensive improvement, value addition across the chain, and resource security, thereby strengthening the supply safety of Sichuan's livestock industry [6].