交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-12-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，近期国内南方生猪二次育肥有所上升，出栏短期减少支撑生猪价格，加上腊肉 和灌肠需求释放，预计供给猪、肉双增。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，北方腊肉需求逐 渐释放支撑价格底部，但未来整体消费仍不乐观。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双增、猪价短期 震荡回升中期或维持区间震荡格局。关注月底集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。 中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价11520元/吨，2603合约基差125元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3. 库存：截至9月30日，生猪存栏量43680万头，环比增加0.2%，同比增加2.3%；截至9月末， ...

Core Viewpoint - Wangbei Peak serves as a natural and cultural landmark in Ningxiang, integrating ecological resources and historical significance, while driving local economic development through various industries [6][12][21]. Group 1: Natural and Ecological Significance - Wangbei Peak, with an elevation of 523.4 meters, is part of the Xuefeng Mountain range and is characterized by its unique geological structure and rich ecological environment [8][9]. - The surrounding area features diverse seasonal landscapes, including blooming flowers in spring, a cool retreat in summer, wild fruits in autumn, and a winter wonderland [9]. - The Chu River, flowing at the foot of the peak, nourishes the fertile land, contributing to the agricultural richness of the region [10]. Group 2: Cultural and Historical Context - The name "Wangbei Peak" reflects its historical significance, with legends and stories dating back to the Tang Dynasty, linking it to notable historical figures [12][13]. - The area has a rich cultural heritage, including the legacy of the "Zhangzi Ke" craftsmen, who have transformed traditional skills into a thriving industry [15][19]. - Archaeological findings indicate human habitation around Wangbei Peak dating back over 7,000 years, highlighting its long-standing importance to local civilization [14]. Group 3: Economic Development and Industry - The town of Laoliangcang has developed a multi-faceted economic model, including agriculture ("grain warehouse"), jewelry ("gold warehouse"), livestock ("meat warehouse"), and cultural tourism ("cultural warehouse") [17][18]. - The jewelry industry, rooted in the craftsmanship of local artisans, has expanded significantly, with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan at its peak [19]. - Innovative initiatives like "Grain Warehouse Online" have facilitated the integration of local products into broader markets, generating over 20 million yuan in revenue since its inception [18]. Group 4: Community and Social Impact - The local government has implemented strategies to enhance community welfare, including the establishment of cooperative economic models that benefit over 8,000 households [18][21]. - The cultural and historical significance of Wangbei Peak fosters a sense of identity and pride among residents, contributing to social cohesion and community development [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing's agricultural sector demonstrates significant advancements through innovative practices and technology, achieving record yields and integrating various agricultural industries to enhance overall productivity and value [1][4][10]. Group 1: Agricultural Productivity - The Liyou Agricultural Machinery Cooperative in Nanjing achieved a record yield of 975.8 kg per mu, marking a 20% increase in per mu benefits [1]. - Nanjing's agricultural area and total output have consistently led the southern Jiangsu region, with a projected annual growth rate of over 10% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][4]. - The contribution rate of agricultural technology progress in Nanjing exceeds 74%, significantly higher than the national average [4]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - Nanjing has shifted from traditional farming practices to a technology-driven approach, utilizing hybrid rice varieties and precision farming techniques [2][3]. - A large-scale single production enhancement initiative has been launched, involving expert teams providing comprehensive services across 450,000 mu of farmland [3][4]. - The city has developed a robust agricultural technology application support system, enhancing the integration of research and practical application [3][10]. Group 3: Industry Integration - Nanjing is moving from a raw material selling model to a value-added chain approach, integrating production, processing, and services [6][7]. - The city has identified eight key agricultural industries, including high-quality rice and green vegetables, to drive economic growth [7][10]. - Innovative practices such as shared gardens and urban agriculture have been implemented, generating significant local income [8][9]. Group 4: Branding and Market Access - Nanjing has developed a public brand strategy, "Food Gift Qinhuai," to unify and promote local agricultural products, resulting in sales of approximately 1.85 billion yuan over five years [11][12]. - The city actively facilitates market access for farmers through direct connections with supermarkets and e-commerce platforms [12]. - Nanjing's agricultural products are expanding into international markets, enhancing brand recognition and value [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the allocation of 3.2424 million yuan in special funds to support the development of characteristic agricultural and pastoral industries in Qilian County, aimed at enhancing the efficiency and quality of the agricultural sector [1] Group 1: Funding Allocation - A total of 3.2424 million yuan has been allocated to 10 quality agricultural and pastoral industry operators [1] - The funding is targeted at key areas such as brand cultivation, technological research and development, and standard formulation [1] Group 2: Selection Process - The funding distribution process adheres to principles of openness, fairness, justice, and excellence [1] - The selection involved multiple rigorous steps including self-application by enterprises, initial review at the county level, and re-examination at the state level [1] Group 3: Industry Coverage - The awarded entities include leading industries in the full industrial chain of livestock products such as Qilian sheep and Qilian yaks, as well as high-end dairy products and deep processing of agricultural by-products like barley and rapeseed [1] - The funding aims to support the integrated system of "breeding-processing-sales" at critical nodes [1] Group 4: Impact on Industry - The precise allocation of funds is expected to alleviate financial pressures on enterprises regarding production and innovation [1] - It will also assist in improving breeding quality, deep processing, and cold chain logistics, addressing shortcomings in the industrial chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the comprehensive development and revitalization efforts in Sunite Right Banner, focusing on rural revitalization through a combination of party leadership, industry development, ecological protection, and cultural integration [4][5][6][7][8][13]. Group 1: Party Leadership and Governance - Party leadership is emphasized as the cornerstone of rural revitalization and grassroots governance, with initiatives to strengthen organizational structures and innovate governance models [5][6]. - The Urijin Tal Town's practice of integrating community resources to address transportation challenges for herders showcases effective grassroots governance and community support [5][6]. Group 2: Ecological Protection and Industry Development - Sunite Right Banner has secured 610 million yuan in ecological funding for grassland protection and restoration, promoting sustainable agricultural practices [7][8]. - The region has achieved a 94% improvement rate in the quality of Sunite sheep and a 50% mechanization rate in livestock farming, fostering a balance between grassland ecology and industry [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Empowerment and Collective Growth - The banner promotes the transformation of traditional livestock farming into ecological, intensive, and modern practices, with collective economic initiatives expected to generate over 400,000 yuan in income per village by 2025 [8][9]. - The establishment of standardized dairy processing facilities and the introduction of innovative agricultural practices have significantly increased local income and employment opportunities [9][10]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Public Services - Significant investments in infrastructure, including over 315 million yuan in electricity upgrades and the installation of clean water systems, have improved living conditions for local herders [10][11]. - Educational and healthcare services have seen enhancements, with over 212 million yuan allocated for school upgrades and the establishment of new elderly care facilities [11]. Group 5: Cultural Integration and Tourism Development - Cultural initiatives are being promoted to enhance local identity and tourism, with traditional crafts being revitalized and integrated into the tourism sector [13][14]. - The development of unique tourism routes combining volcanic sightseeing and agricultural experiences aims to boost local economies and cultural pride [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a potential upward trend in the beef and dairy sectors, driven by a reversal in the agricultural cycle, with domestic and international beef and dairy markets expected to resonate positively [3]. - The pig farming sector is anticipated to benefit from capacity control measures, leading to improved cash flow for leading enterprises, which may transform them into dividend stocks amidst industry-wide capacity reduction [3]. - Poultry supply fluctuations are expected to be limited, with demand recovery likely to enhance the performance of leading companies, which can achieve higher cash flow returns due to their excess yield advantages [3]. - The feed sector is projected to deepen industrialization, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to widen their competitive edge [3]. - The pet industry is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic trends [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report provides a weekly summary of agricultural product fundamentals, indicating a slight decrease in pig prices and a stable outlook for beef prices [12][13]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The average price of live pigs on December 26 was 11.52 CNY/kg, down 0.43% week-on-week and down 26.48% year-on-year [13]. - The price of 7kg piglets was approximately 217.38 CNY/head, down 0.54% week-on-week and down 40.87% year-on-year [13]. 2.2 White Chicken - The price of chicken seedlings was 3.34 CNY/bird, down 0.89% week-on-week, while the price of broilers was 7.78 CNY/kg, up 6.87% week-on-week [13][14]. 2.3 Yellow Chicken - Prices for various types of yellow chicken remained stable, with slight fluctuations observed [14]. 2.4 Eggs - The main production area price for eggs was 2.92 CNY/jin, down 4.89% week-on-week and down 17.75% year-on-year, indicating significant supply pressure [14]. 2.5 Beef - The price of fattened bulls was 25.20 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week, and the beef market price was 60.91 CNY/kg, down 0.21% week-on-week but up 20.02% year-on-year [2][14]. 2.6 Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk was 3.03 CNY/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week, with expectations for accelerated dairy cow liquidation in Q4 [2][14]. 2.7 Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean price was 4015 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week, while soybean meal was priced at 3134 CNY/ton, up 0.51% week-on-week [2][14]. 2.8 Corn - The domestic corn price was 2300 CNY/ton, down 0.04% week-on-week but up 10.42% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [2][14]. 2.9 Rubber - Short-term prices are expected to stabilize, with a positive outlook for the medium term [2]. 2.10 Sugar - Short-term imports are increasing, with attention on import rhythms and fluctuations in crude oil prices [2]. 2.11 Palm Oil - Short-term supply is weak while demand remains strong, with medium-term policy support expected [2]. 2.12 Cotton - Inventory pressure is neutral, with demand still needing recovery [2]. 2.13 Red Dates - The new season is expected to maintain high production, with attention on seasonal consumption support [2]. 3. Market Trends - The report includes a weekly performance summary of agricultural stocks, indicating fluctuations in various sectors [12].

Core Viewpoint - The provincial economic work meeting emphasizes the importance of grasping current opportunities and making detailed plans for the upcoming year, aiming for a strong start to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The meeting outlines the main tasks for next year's economic work, focusing on solidifying food security, promoting technological, green, quality, and brand agriculture, and implementing a plan to increase grain production by ten million tons [2] - The province aims to enhance its role as a national grain security "ballast stone" by building a significant commodity grain production base and improving overall production capacity [2] Group 2: Agricultural Modernization - The province seeks to be a leader in agricultural modernization by promoting new technologies, equipment, and business models, and aims to achieve the "five modernizations" in agriculture [3] - Initiatives include developing smart agriculture, establishing a national AI application pilot base in agriculture, and creating a modern seed industry province [3] Group 3: Quality and Safety in Agriculture - The province plans to build a model for comprehensive green transformation in agriculture, ensuring food safety and expanding the market influence of high-quality agricultural products [3] - Efforts will be made to enhance the quality of agricultural products and expand the scale of customized agriculture [3] Group 4: Rural Development and Poverty Alleviation - The meeting emphasizes the need to prevent large-scale poverty and establish a robust monitoring and support system for at-risk populations [4] - Plans include improving rural living conditions, promoting high-quality agricultural processing, and enhancing rural governance [4] Group 5: Agricultural Innovation and Economic Growth - The province aims to stimulate agricultural and rural development by advancing land reform, enhancing collective economic strength, and establishing modern agricultural service centers [4]

【昔日贫困村现今的模样】 光明日报记者 尚杰 王冰雅 初冬时节，走进甘肃古浪县干城乡富民新村，整齐划一的养殖暖棚里羊群攒动，"咩咩"声此起彼伏。 凭借政府的各项扶持政策和蒲万林自己的一股闯劲，5个月后，第一批20只羊赚了钱。她当即贷款再次 购进更多羊羔。 "没想到短短几年，从300只扩增到600只，再从一茬育肥出售600只到1000只，我成了村里的'养殖大 户'。"接受记者采访时，蒲万林脸上洋溢着欣慰的笑容。是啊，养殖为她家带来了每年八九万元的纯收 入，这样的生活以前她做梦都不敢想。 蒲万林的成功产生了强大的示范效应。乡亲们看到养羊的效益，从最初的犹豫观望转变为争相参与。 随着养殖户越来越多，如何避免小散乱、提升产业整体竞争力，成为新的课题。富民新村开始推动产业 从"扩量"向"提质"升级。 古浪县紧傍腾格里沙漠，土地贫瘠、干旱少雨，农业生产长期受制于自然，"春天种了一袋子，秋天收 了一帽子"是当地农业的真实写照。 荒滩上种粮食不行，村党委进行了认真调研后，决定引导村民利用大片的戈壁荒滩养羊。因为，独特的 沙漠性气候为古浪羊养殖创造了得天独厚的条件，这里的羊长期食用碱性饲草，畅饮祁连山冰雪融水， 因而味道鲜美。 ...

Group 1 - The project aims to conduct systematic and standardized sample collection of the "Qilian Yak," a local genetic resource, to obtain high-quality genetic materials and complete phenotypic and environmental background information [2] - A total of 50 blood samples were collected, each assigned a unique identifier to ensure permanent association with individual information, and detailed phenotypic records and multi-angle images were captured [1] - The samples will be safely transported under professional cold chain conditions to the National Livestock Gene Bank for subsequent DNA extraction and genotyping molecular experiments [1] Group 2 - The collected samples and data will lay the foundation for subsequent whole-genome precise identification, excellent gene mining, and the construction of unique molecular identities [2] - The project will provide core driving force for the transformation from "experience breeding" to "precise breeding," helping to protect the genetic diversity of the "Qilian Yak" and enhance the yak breeding industry [2] - The initiative is expected to strengthen the protection of characteristic genetic resources and support the revitalization of the yak industry through solid technological backing [2]

Core Insights - The South African livestock industry is facing significant export restrictions and revenue losses due to the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in 2025, with estimated losses amounting to approximately 5.6 billion Rand [1] Revenue Loss Breakdown - The annual revenue loss from fresh and frozen beef is projected to be 3.7 billion Rand [1] - The annual revenue loss from goat and sheep meat is estimated at 1.4 billion Rand [1] - The annual revenue loss from live cattle, sheep, and goats is expected to be 0.5 billion Rand [1] Export Market Impact - As of January 2025, markets including China, Eswatini, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Namibia have completely banned imports of South African products [1] - The UK has also imposed a total ban on the import of mohair from South Africa [1] - Middle Eastern countries such as Jordan, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia maintain partial restrictions, requiring guarantees that imported products do not carry the foot-and-mouth disease virus [1]