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比直接抄底标普500确定性更强的策略
雪球· 2025-05-04 04:04
Core Viewpoint - The article suggests a strategy of shorting the VIX index as a more certain approach to capitalizing on market downturns, rather than directly buying into the S&P 500, especially when the latter's valuation has not fully bottomed out [2][4]. VIX Index Overview - The VIX index measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 over the next 30 days and is often referred to as the "fear index," serving as a gauge of market sentiment [3]. - Historically, regardless of significant risk events, the VIX index tends to stabilize at an average level after spikes, indicating a potential strategy of shorting the VIX at high levels and buying back at lower levels [3][4]. Strategy Comparison - Shorting the VIX focuses on "shorting market sentiment," requiring only a return to normal market conditions for profit, which is less complex than predicting stock price movements when directly buying the index [4]. - Directly buying the index requires a low valuation entry point, but markets may not wait for a complete downturn before rebounding, leading to missed opportunities [5]. Backtesting Results - The article presents backtesting results for various shorting strategies based on VIX levels, indicating that shorting above 30 and covering below 12 yields significant returns, albeit with long holding periods that can reduce annualized returns [12][11]. - A more relaxed strategy of shorting above 30 and covering below 20 shows quicker recovery opportunities, with some trades yielding 30%-40% returns in a short time frame [13][14]. Risk and Considerations - The strategy's risks include the potential for infinite losses if the VIX spikes unexpectedly, as it is not tied to a tangible asset like stocks [22]. - Costs associated with shorting the VIX through derivatives can introduce discrepancies in expected outcomes, particularly during volatile market conditions [22]. Summary of Strategy Characteristics - The strategy is characterized by strong certainty, relying on the recovery of market sentiment over time, with the potential for significant short-term gains [23]. - It is advisable to prepare for short-term losses and to exit positions when the VIX stabilizes around 25, as holding beyond this point may not be cost-effective [23].
香港证监会着手提高主要股票指数衍生工具的持仓限额
news flash· 2025-04-30 08:51
金十数据4月30日讯,香港证监会今天就建议提高以香港三大股票指数为基础的交易所买卖衍生工具的 持仓限额,发表咨询总结。回应者大力支持有关建议,并指出相关修订将加强市场流动性,提升对冲效 率,并促进市场进一步增长。证监会共接获25份来自本地和海外的市场参与者的意见书,其中包括庄 家、资产管理人、业界组织及其他持份者。证监会在考虑所接获的意见,过往及潜在的市场增长,以及 市场参与者的持仓限额使用情况后,将着手落实有关建议。为此,证监会将修订《证券及期货(合约限 量及须申报的持仓量)规则》及《持仓限额及大额未平仓合约的申报规定指引》。 香港证监会着手提高主要股票指数衍生工具的持仓限额 ...
【私募调研记录】幻方量化调研广联达
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-04-30 00:10
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Guanglian Da is optimistic about its future growth and development, particularly in its digital cost business, which is seen as a cornerstone for the company [1] - Guanglian Da plans to expand its product application range and improve product renewal rates and market share by leveraging new policy lists to meet diverse customer needs in cost management [1] - The company is optimistic about the growth trend in urban renewal, although its current revenue contribution from this area is still low [1] Group 2 - The increase in sales expenses is attributed to higher advertising, promotion, and travel costs due to business development, while R&D expenses have risen due to software amortization and technology investment [1] - The company expects a significant decrease in overall labor costs for the year [1] - Guanglian Da's core business is primarily domestic, with a small proportion of foreign business, and local authorized sales and services are the main channels, limiting the direct impact of tariffs [1] Group 3 - The company aims to achieve its annual net profit target through an equity incentive plan, with quarterly data expected to fluctuate but striving for stable annual results [1] - Guanglian Da's AI strategy focuses on overcoming technical bottlenecks, enhancing competitiveness, and empowering products, with specific applications in Concetto, New Calculation, and Trading [1] - The company will showcase its progress at the construction industry summit in mid-May [1]
黄金期权从9800%涨幅到仅剩0.04元,什么是末日轮陷阱?
对冲研投· 2025-04-23 12:13
以下文章来源于力的期权工作室 ,作者余力 Felix 力的期权工作室 . 对个人更通俗,对机构更专业,努力做最具品质的衍生品公众号~ 文 | 余力 Felix 来源 | 力的期权工作室 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 这个星期,相比于A股,我想另一个资产应该引起了更大的关注, 它就是年内涨幅一度快到30%的资产——黄 金。 隔岸的大嘴,原本想"make America great again",最后搞成了"make Au great again"。尤其是前几天,每天 两三个点的涨幅,确实是简直了…… 然而,这个世界总是被反者道之动的规律所支配。任何一个风险资产的表现不会永远顺滑的,也没有一个风险 资产会只涨不跌的。偶然中蕴含着必然,尽管今天黄金的大跌与trump的态度缓和有很大关系,但其次这一次 大跌,也恰恰是发生一系列指标进入极值以后…… 图:当日沪金指数的分时走势 数据来源:Wind 最近的黄金有多疯狂呢?我们一起来跟踪两组数据。 首先,国际金价的乖离率又一次进入了历史极值区域。 所谓乖离率,指的是一个资产价格相对某根均线的偏离 程度,对于前天收盘的国际金价,它相对于20天均线的乖离率已经达到了2 ...
股票股指期权:上行速度较缓,隐波下行,可考虑备兑策略
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 12:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Stock index options are rising slowly, implied volatility is falling, and a covered call strategy can be considered [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Option Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices, changes, trading volumes, and other data of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index, Shanghai Composite 50 Index, and other underlying assets are presented. For example, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2652.81, down 4.83 points, with a trading volume of 34.41 billion hands, an increase of 4.06 billion hands compared to the previous period [3]. - **Option Market Statistics**: Data such as trading volume, change, open interest, change, VL - PCR, OI - PCR, and the maximum open interest of calls and puts for various options are provided. For instance, the trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 22,009, an increase of 7,044, and the open interest was 52,190, an increase of 4,620 [3]. 3.2 Option Indicator Data Statistics - **Option Volatility Statistics**: The data of ATM - IV, IV change, same - term HV, HV change, Skew, Skew change, VIX, and VIX change for various options are given. For example, the ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options (near - month) was 14.83%, down 0.29% [6]. 3.3 Option Analysis by Type - **Shanghai Composite 50 Index Options**: Multiple charts are presented, including the volatility trend chart of the main contract, the full - contract PCR chart, the skewness trend chart of the main contract, the volatility cone chart, and the volatility term structure chart [10][11][12]. - **Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Options**: Similar to Shanghai Composite 50 Index options, multiple charts are used to analyze the volatility, PCR, skewness, etc. of the options [15][16][18]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: The report provides charts for analyzing the main contract's volatility, full - contract PCR, main contract skewness, etc. [20][21][23]. - **ETF Options (including Shanghai Composite 50 ETF, Huatai - Ba瑞 300 ETF, etc.)**: Each type of ETF option is analyzed through charts such as the main contract's volatility trend, full - contract PCR, and main contract skewness [27][31][35].
研客专栏 | 今天!1000期指的贴水,已达到什么水平?……
对冲研投· 2025-04-21 11:55
以下文章来源于力的期权工作室 ,作者余力 Felix 力的期权工作室 . 对个人更通俗,对机构更专业,努力做最具品质的衍生品公众号~ 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 余力 Felix 来源 | 力的期权工作室 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 今天!连续第十个交易日,上证综指继续创出4.8反弹以来的新高,各大指数也继续修复4.7那一天的跳空大缺口…… 随着最近"护盘"资金的不断加仓,有一个现象也值得一提,那就是中证1000指数与远月股指期货的贴水率已经几乎拉到了去年9.24以 来的尾部区。 从下面这张图先粗略有个概念(下图中的黑色曲线表示中证1000指数,粉红色曲线表示中证1000最远月股指期货),对于4.7以来的这 一波下跌,中证1000指数本身已经在逐步修复4.7那一天的大缺口,从4.8算到今天,已经累计上涨了8.30%,然而,最远月中证1000股 指期货的价格却只上涨了大约3%,明显跟不上1000指数本身,这导致两者之间的负基差(即股指期货价格减去指数本身的价格)已经 处在近期高位。 图:去年9.24至今,中证1000指数与中证1000隔季月期指合约价格对比走势图 数据来源:Wind 对于还不 ...
研客专栏 | 今天!1000期指的贴水,已达到什么水平?……
对冲研投· 2025-04-21 11:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the stock market, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, highlighting the significant rebound and the implications of the current market conditions on investment strategies [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached new highs for the tenth consecutive trading day, reflecting a recovery from the significant drop on April 7 [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index has increased by 8.30% since April 8, while the far-month stock index futures have only risen by about 3%, leading to a notable negative basis [1][3]. Group 2: Futures Market Dynamics - The article explains the concept of "contango" and "backwardation" in futures trading, indicating that the current negative basis is likely due to significant hedging activities in the futures market [3]. - The low dividend yield of the CSI 1000 Index compared to the CSI 300 Index suggests that the futures prices are less influenced by dividend factors, which may contribute to the current market dynamics [3]. Group 3: Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - Trading volume is highlighted as a critical variable for market momentum, with a historical benchmark of 1.3%-1.4% turnover rate indicating a healthy market environment [4]. - A sustained trading volume above 1.4 trillion yuan is necessary for the emergence of a structural market trend, while volumes below this threshold may indicate a retreat of trading capital [5]. Group 4: Seasonal Trends and Calendar Effects - The article discusses the historical performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index during the latter half of April, noting a low win rate and negative average returns in this period [6]. - The analysis suggests that the end of April is a critical time for earnings announcements, which may lead to increased volatility and the need for cautious investment strategies [6]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the relationship between the A-share indices and the Hang Seng Technology Index, as well as the net inflow of margin trading, to gauge market sentiment [8]. - Investors are advised to remain patient and strategic, especially as the market approaches key resistance levels and while waiting for a return of trading volume [8].
金融期权成交活跃度全线攀升
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-04-19 05:34
Market Performance - On April 16, the A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.26% while the Shenzhen Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.85% and 1.21% respectively [1] - The STAR 50 Index increased by 0.81% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 11,119 billion yuan [1] Options Market Activity - All varieties of options saw increased trading activity with overall open interest continuing to grow [2] - The trading volume for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1,285,515 contracts with an open interest of 1,594,677 contracts and a transaction value of 431 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for the CSI 300 ETF options was 1,369,245 contracts with an open interest of 1,414,333 contracts and a transaction value of 715 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for the CSI 500 ETF options was 1,632,882 contracts with an open interest of 1,216,514 contracts and a transaction value of 1,381 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for the ChiNext ETF options was 1,347,656 contracts with an open interest of 1,583,698 contracts and a transaction value of 507 million yuan [2] Implied Volatility - Various underlying assets experienced a rebound from low levels, while the implied volatility of options remained at year-to-date lows [3] - The weighted implied volatility for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 0.1476, while for the CSI 300 ETF options it was 0.173 [3] - The weighted implied volatility for the ChiNext ETF options was 0.2883, indicating a relatively low volatility environment [3] - The analysis suggests that the recent contraction in trading volume and narrowing volatility may not be sustainable, with a potential for a market rebound in the medium to long term [3]
金融期权日报-20250417
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-04-17 08:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The trading volume of financial options reached 7.83 million contracts, indicating relatively active trading in the financial options market. The trading volume of most varieties' PCR ratios was significantly lower than 1, suggesting that the call options in the options market were more popular than put options [1][3]. - The VIX of SSE CSI 500 ETF options rose by 0.40%. The VIX indexes of various ETF options on the SSE increased to varying degrees, the VIX of Shenzhen GEM ETF options on the SZSE rose by 1.09%, and the VIX index of CFFEX CSI 300 index options rose by 0.48% [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Quick View 1.1 Trading Volume and Open Interest - The closing prices, price changes, option trading volumes, option open interests, trading volume PCRs, and open interest PCRs of multiple options such as SSE SSE 50 ETF, SSE CSI 300 ETF, and SSE CSI 500 ETF were presented. For example, the closing price of SSE SSE 50 ETF was 2.715, with a price increase of 0.89%, trading volume of 1,285,515 contracts, and open interest of 1,594,677 contracts [5]. 1.2 Volatility - The implied volatility indexes (VIX), IV price changes (absolute values), skewness indexes, historical volatilities (30 - day and 90 - day), and implied - historical differences of multiple options were provided. For instance, the VIX of SSE SSE 50 ETF was 16.90, with an IV price increase of 0.60%, and a historical volatility of 21.94% (30 - day) [9]. 2. Product Research 2.1 SSE SSE 50 ETF Options - Charts related to the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, VIX index, SKEW index, trading volume PCR, and open interest PCR were presented [14]. 2.2 SSE CSI 300 ETF Options - Similar to 2.1, relevant charts for SSE CSI 300 ETF options were provided, including the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, etc. [17]. 2.3 SSE CSI 500 ETF Options - Charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, VIX index, SKEW index, trading volume PCR, and open interest PCR for SSE CSI 500 ETF options were shown [22]. 2.4 SSE STAR 50 ETF Options - Relevant charts for SSE STAR 50 ETF options, such as the volatility smile curve and volatility term structure, were presented [25]. 2.5 SSE STAR - BOARD 50 ETF Options - Similar to the above, charts related to SSE STAR - BOARD 50 ETF options were provided [29]. 2.6 SZSE CSI 300 ETF Options - Charts of the volatility smile curve, volatility term structure, VIX index, SKEW index, trading volume PCR, and open interest PCR for SZSE CSI 300 ETF options were shown [32]. 2.7 SZSE CSI 500 ETF Options - Relevant charts for SZSE CSI 500 ETF options, including the volatility smile curve and volatility term structure, were presented [36].
场外个股期权与股票的区别究竟有哪些?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-15 01:45
场外个股期权,期就是期限的意思,权就是在有效期内可以行使你的权利,场外个股期权就是购买某个股票市值规模收益的权利,那么其和股票有哪些区别 呢?对于投资者而言,深入了解这些区别还是很重要的! 场外个股期权与股票的区别?咱们先来了解这两者的本质 一、股票 股票投资:以100万买入茅台股票,若股价上涨20%,盈利20万;若下跌30%,亏损30万。 场外期权:支付5万权利金买入茅台看涨期权(名义本金100万),若股价上涨20%,盈利20万(净收益15万);若下跌30%,仅损失5万权利金。 所有权凭证:持有股票即成为公司股东,享有分红权、投票权等权益,收益与公司经营直接挂钩。 线性收益:盈亏与股价涨跌直接对应,例如100元买入某股票,涨至120元则盈利20元,跌至80元则亏损20元。 长期性:理论上可无限持有,无到期日限制。 二、场外个股期权 权利合约:买方支付权利金后,获得未来以约定价格买卖标的股票的权利(非义务),不涉及实际所有权。 非线性收益:买方最大亏损为权利金,但潜在收益可能数倍于本金(如支付5万权利金控制100万名义市值)。 期限约束:合约有明确到期日,过期失效,具有时间价值衰减特性。 三、案例对比: 场外 ...