Market Overview - On July 23, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets experienced a slight pullback after an initial rise, with a total trading volume of 1.8645 trillion yuan. The four major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai 50 Index up by 0.32% and the CSI 300 Index up by 0.02%, while the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index fell by 0.27% and 0.45% respectively [1]. Options Market Activity - The options market saw increased trading activity, with a continued rise in open interest. Specific trading volumes included 2,055,628 contracts for the Shanghai 50 ETF options, 2,037,994 contracts for the CSI 300 ETF options, and 1,811,686 contracts for the CSI 500 ETF options, among others. The total trading volume for various options reached significant amounts, with the CSI 1000 index options having a trading volume of 225,207 contracts and a total transaction value of 2.58 billion yuan [2]. Implied Volatility - There was a slight rebound in implied volatility across various options, although it remained at relatively low levels, indicating cautious market sentiment. The weighted implied volatility for the Shanghai 50 ETF options was recorded at 0.1578, while the CSI 300 ETF options had a volatility of 0.1455. The highest implied volatility was noted for the Huaxia Sci-Tech 50 ETF options at 0.2578 [3]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - Following positive news, the stock markets had seen significant gains recently, but on July 23, the upward momentum appeared to weaken. The options market remained active with increasing open interest. The current low implied volatility suggests a decline in the cost-effectiveness for sellers, prompting a need for tail risk management. Investors with a bullish outlook are advised to consider buying strategies, while those holding stocks may benefit from rolling out-of-the-money call options to enhance returns [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the stock index and ETF options market on July 22, 2025, presenting data on market trends, including price changes, trading volume, open interest, and volatility, and warns about the expiration risk of ETF options [1]. 3. Summary by Category Market Data - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices of major indices and ETFs rose, with varying trading volume changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2792.18, up 19.94, and its trading volume was 68.31 billion hands, an increase of 18.36 billion hands [1]. - **Options Market Statistics**: Trading volume and open interest of most options increased. The PCR values (Volume - PCR and Open Interest - PCR) varied among different options, reflecting different market sentiment. For instance, the Volume - PCR of CSI 1000 Index Options was 72.54% [1]. - **Options Volatility Statistics**: Implied volatility (IV) and historical volatility (HV) of options showed different trends. For example, the near - month ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Options was 14.56%, with a 0.22% increase [4]. Index and ETF Options Analysis - **Shanghai Composite 50 Index Options**: Analyzed through full - contract PCR,主力 contract skew, volatility cone, and volatility term structure charts, showing market sentiment and volatility characteristics [7][8]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Similar analysis methods were used, with data presented in corresponding charts to reflect market conditions [11][12]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: The report analyzed its market performance from multiple perspectives, including trading volume, open interest, and volatility [14][15]. - **ETF Options**: Options such as Shanghai Composite 50ETF, Huatai - Berry 300ETF, and others were analyzed using PCR, skew, volatility cone, and term structure charts to understand their market trends [19][20].

Core Insights - The urgent demand for yields among American investors is driving the rapid expansion of the S&P 500 dividend futures and options market, which was previously considered a niche segment overshadowed by the European market [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) data indicates a 40% year-on-year increase in S&P 500 dividend futures trading volume for the first half of 2025, with open interest in S&P 500 dividend options more than doubling [1] - The structural differences between the U.S. and European markets are evident in the shape of the derivatives curve, with U.S. long-term dividend contracts holding higher value compared to declining futures prices in Europe [4] Market Dynamics - The rise of dividend derivatives provides investors with more refined risk management tools, although market volatility remains a concern, as evidenced by an 11% drop in S&P 500 dividend contracts due to market crash fears in April [7] - External factors such as tariff policies may create a volatile environment, attracting a more diverse range of trading participants [7] - The focus of both U.S. and European markets is shifting towards 2027, with cautious sentiment regarding mid-term dividend growth reflected in the futures prices [9] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape further shapes market characteristics, with the U.S. SEC enforcing stricter regulations on over-the-counter derivatives, while the European market remains more lenient, attracting U.S. financial institutions to shift some operations to London [11] - Despite price corrections in April, the misalignment of S&P 500 dividends is expected to be less severe than in Europe due to the balanced performance of S&P 500 constituents [11] Market Efficiency - The maturity of the dividend options market has significantly improved the accuracy of the futures curve, allowing for clearer reflections of market consensus on future dividend paths [12] - A dynamic balance mechanism is emerging, pushing the global dividend derivatives market towards a more efficient pricing era [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint As of July 17, 2025, the positive skew of stock index options has increased, indicating a rise in bullish sentiment, and the index options are approaching expiration [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Option Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 2744.26, 4034.49, and 6535.67 respectively, with increases of 3.36, 27.29, and 73.61. The trading volumes were 36.15 billion, 161.25 billion, and 227.83 billion hands respectively, with changes of 1.91 billion, 10.22 billion, and 7.60 billion hands [2]. - **Option Market Statistics**: The trading volume and open interest of various options showed different changes. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options was 39,744, a decrease of 2,611, and the open interest was 77,564, an increase of 2,283 [2]. 3.2 Option Volatility Statistics - **Near - month Volatility**: The ATM - IV of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options was 13.16%, with a change of 0.10%. The ATM - IV of CSI 300 Index Options was 11.69%, with a change of 0.81% [5]. - **Next - month Volatility**: The ATM - IV of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options was 14.31%, with a change of 0.43%. The ATM - IV of CSI 300 Index Options was 14.05%, with a change of - 0.13% [5]. 3.3 Option Index Data Statistics No specific text description provided, but there are multiple charts for different option types, including PCR charts, skewness charts, volatility cone charts, and volatility term structure charts, which visually show the characteristics and trends of each option [9][13][22].

Core Insights - Short-term U.S. interest rate futures continue to rise as traders increase bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The market sentiment indicates a growing expectation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in the near future [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies, as detailed in the Cinda Derivatives Research Report Series. It aims to continuously hedge using futures contracts to minimize basis risk[44][45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to July 11, 2025[45] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[45] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and allocate the same nominal principal to short futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds. After each rebalancing, recalculate the quantities for both the spot and futures sides based on the product's net value[45] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining time to maturity is less than two days. On that day, close the position at the closing price and simultaneously short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price[45] - **Assumptions**: Equal principal allocation between the spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[45] 2. Model Name: Minimum Basis Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects futures contracts with the smallest annualized basis discount to optimize hedging performance[46] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to July 11, 2025[46] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[46] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and allocate the same nominal principal to short futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds. After each rebalancing, recalculate the quantities for both the spot and futures sides based on the product's net value[46] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Calculate the annualized basis for all tradable futures contracts on the day of rebalancing and select the contract with the smallest basis discount for opening positions. Hold the same contract for eight trading days or until the remaining time to maturity is less than two days before selecting a new contract[46] - **Assumptions**: Equal principal allocation between the spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[46] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Continuous Hedging Strategy - **IC (CSI 500 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -2.83% (monthly), -2.06% (quarterly)[48] - Volatility: 3.87% (monthly), 4.77% (quarterly)[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -8.26% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly)[48] - Net Value: 0.9188 (monthly), 0.9405 (quarterly)[48] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -3.58% (monthly), -1.35% (quarterly)[48] - **IF (CSI 300 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 0.49% (monthly), 0.71% (quarterly)[51] - Volatility: 3.01% (monthly), 3.35% (quarterly)[51] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly)[51] - Net Value: 1.0144 (monthly), 1.0211 (quarterly)[51] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[51] - 2025 YTD Return: -0.89% (monthly), 0.12% (quarterly)[51] - **IH (SSE 50 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.03% (monthly), 1.97% (quarterly)[54] - Volatility: 3.12% (monthly), 3.54% (quarterly)[54] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.76% (quarterly)[54] - Net Value: 1.0307 (monthly), 1.0593 (quarterly)[54] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[54] - 2025 YTD Return: -0.01% (monthly), 0.99% (quarterly)[54] - **IM (CSI 1000 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -6.04% (monthly), -4.45% (quarterly)[59] - Volatility: 4.74% (monthly), 5.79% (quarterly)[59] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.01% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly)[59] - Net Value: 0.8469 (monthly), 0.8805 (quarterly)[59] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[59] - 2025 YTD Return: -9.11% (monthly), -4.54% (quarterly)[59] 2. Minimum Basis Strategy - **IC (CSI 500 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -1.06%[48] - Volatility: 4.67%[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.97%[48] - Net Value: 0.9692[48] - Annual Turnover: 17.28[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -0.96%[48] - **IF (CSI 300 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.31%[51] - Volatility: 3.14%[51] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.06%[51] - Net Value: 1.0392[51] - Annual Turnover: 15.25[51] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.56%[51] - **IH (SSE 50 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.72%[54] - Volatility: 3.14%[54] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.91%[54] - Net Value: 1.0516[54] - Annual Turnover: 15.93[54] - 2025 YTD Return: 1.04%[54] - **IM (CSI 1000 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -3.83%[59] - Volatility: 5.59%[59] - Maximum Drawdown: -11.11%[59] - Net Value: 0.8949[59] - Annual Turnover: 15.91[59] - 2025 YTD Return: -3.89%[59] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market, with a term structure to capture expectations over different time horizons[61] - **Factor Construction Process**: Adjusted based on overseas methodologies and tailored to China's options market. The index reflects implied volatility from options pricing[61] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into market sentiment and risk expectations[61] 2. Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market expectations of extreme events[69][70] - **Factor Construction Process**: Analyzes the slope of implied volatility curves to quantify the degree of skewness, with higher values indicating greater concern for tail risks[69][70] - **Factor Evaluation**: Useful for identifying market concerns about potential extreme downside risks[70] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cinda-VIX - **30-Day VIX Values**: - SSE 50: 19.77[61] - CSI 300: 18.92[61] - CSI 500: 25.01[61] - CSI 1000: 23.34[61] 2. Cinda-SKEW - **SKEW Values**: - SSE 50: 97.27[70] - CSI 300: 99.19[70] - CSI 500: 102.27[70] - CSI 1000: 101.82[70]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "oscillation" [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures continued their moderate upward trend, influenced by factors such as expectations of real - estate policy implementation, strengthened anti - involution and supply - side expectations, and the high - dividend characteristics of banks and insurance attracting long - term funds. The short - term upside is related to the sustainability of the large - finance sector [6]. - Stock index options maintained a cautious outlook. Although the underlying assets performed strongly, the market did not see large - scale chasing trades, and investor sentiment became more cautious. The recommended operation is to focus on covered strategies and appropriately add buying put options to construct a collar [6]. - Treasury bond futures had weak sentiment. The market was pressured by the strong performance of the equity market and the tightening of the capital market. With potential capital fluctuations in the future, the market should be dealt with from an oscillation perspective [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Performance Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were - 12.82 points, - 11.53 points, - 24.25 points, and - 31.37 points respectively, with month - on - month changes of 1.58 points, - 1.41 points, - 0.76 points, and 0.30 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts were 18.0 points, 3.4 points, 54.4 points, and 71.2 points, with month - on - month changes of 2.8 points, - 2.6 points, 1.0 points, and 1.4 points. The total open interest changes were 11835 lots, 9632 lots, 5291 lots, and 11313 lots [6]. - **Logic**: The market continued its upward trend, with real estate, insurance, coal, and oil and gas leading the gains. The short - term upside depends on the large - finance sector [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [6]. Stock Index Options - **Logic**: The underlying assets were strong, but the trading volume changed little, and the volatility increased slightly. Investor sentiment became more cautious. [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Focus on covered strategies and appropriately add buying put options to construct a collar [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Performance Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts were 77570 lots, 65698 lots, 42333 lots, and 107326 lots respectively, with daily changes of 18031 lots, 19470 lots, 7862 lots, and 33059 lots. The open interests were 202427 lots, 158575 lots, 115251 lots, and 119369 lots, with daily changes of - 1254 lots, 1095 lots, - 144 lots, and 418 lots. The spreads between current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6][7]. - **Logic**: The market declined due to the strong equity market and tightened capital. Future capital fluctuations need attention, but there may be value in entering the market after the recent adjustment [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, maintain an oscillation view. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening. For curve strategies, steepening the curve in the medium - term has higher odds [7] 3.2 Economic Calendar - On July 7, 2025, the annual retail sales growth rate in the Eurozone in May was 1.8%, with a previous value of 2.3% and a forecast of 1.2% [9]. - On July 9, 2025, China's CPI annual rate in June was 0.1%, with a previous value of - 0.1% and a forecast of 0%; the PPI annual rate was - 3.6%, with a previous value of - 3.3% and a forecast of - 3.2% [9] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The latest Fed meeting minutes showed that some participants were willing to consider lowering the policy interest rate if data met expectations, while others thought the federal funds rate might not be lowered this year [9]. - China has launched a special campaign to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals such as antimony and gallium, and will also review and approve legal export license applications [10] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [11][15][27]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a comprehensive set of guidelines for its hedging activities to mitigate market price volatility risks, ensuring that these activities align with its operational needs and comply with relevant regulations [1][2]. Group 1: Hedging Business Overview - The hedging business includes financial derivatives and commodity futures hedging to mitigate risks associated with exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices [1][2]. - The company must conduct hedging activities in a legal, prudent, safe, and effective manner, ensuring that these activities do not interfere with normal operations or involve speculative trading [2]. Group 2: Organizational Structure - The company's board of directors and shareholders' meeting serve as the decision-making bodies for hedging activities [3]. - A dedicated working group is established to manage hedging activities, comprising key executives such as the chairman, general manager, and financial officers [3][4]. Group 3: Approval Authority - The company must prepare a feasibility analysis report for hedging activities, which requires approval from the board of directors [5]. - Certain transactions, particularly those involving significant financial commitments, must also be submitted for shareholders' approval [5]. Group 4: Risk Management - The company is required to conduct thorough assessments of financial institutions before engaging in hedging activities [27]. - Regular audits and checks are mandated to ensure compliance with risk management policies and to identify any operational risks [28][30]. Group 5: Emergency Procedures - In the event of significant market changes or natural disasters, the company must promptly report and take necessary actions to mitigate risks, including closing or locking positions [37][39]. - Contingency plans are in place for operational disruptions, ensuring that trading can continue through alternative means [40][41]. Group 6: Documentation and Record Keeping - All documentation related to hedging activities, including applications, approvals, and transaction records, must be archived for a minimum of ten years [41]. - The company is responsible for maintaining confidentiality regarding its hedging strategies and financial information [25].

Group 1 - CME Group announced a record average daily trading volume of 9.2 million contracts in Q2 2025, representing an 18% year-over-year increase, driven by record volumes in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific regions [1] - The average daily trading volume in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region reached 6.7 million contracts, up 15% year-over-year, with significant growth in equity indices, energy, interest rates, and metal products [1] - The Asia-Pacific region saw an average daily trading volume of 2.2 million contracts, a 30% increase from the previous year, with energy products growing by 67% and metal products by 34% [1] Group 2 - In Canada, the average daily trading volume for Q2 2025 was 190,000 contracts, a 17% increase year-over-year, with interest rate and equity index products growing by 19% and 35%, respectively [2] - The Latin America region reported an average daily trading volume of 18,900 contracts, a 4% increase from 2024, with foreign exchange and metal products reaching new quarterly highs [2] - Globally, CME Group's average daily trading volume for Q2 2025 reached a record 30.2 million contracts, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by new highs in interest rates, agricultural products, and metal products [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is testing key positions with some resistance, and the four major stock index futures contracts have declined. Consider a bull spread strategy for index futures [2][3][4]. - Treasury bond futures are likely to show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term, and it is recommended to allocate more on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate [5][7]. - Gold has a long - term upward trend, but short - term fluctuations are affected by trade agreements and inflation data. Silver is supported by industrial demand [10][11]. - The container shipping futures market is expected to have a small increase in August if quotes do not fall, and a cautious and bullish attitude towards the 08 contract is recommended [12][13]. - For various metals, such as copper, zinc, and tin, prices are affected by factors like supply - demand, tariffs, and inventory, with different short - term trends and operation suggestions [15][24][27]. - In the black metal sector, steel prices are in a volatile state during the off - season, and iron ore is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term and bearish in the medium - long term [43][47]. - For agricultural products,粕类 markets are bottom - grinding, the pig market has potential supply pressure, and corn prices are in a narrow - range oscillation [55][58][60]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, major indices first rose in the morning and then fluctuated down in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.13%, and most stock index futures contracts declined. The base spreads of the four major stock index futures contracts were repaired [2][3]. - **News**: The CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The US delegation is expected to meet with Chinese officials in August to discuss trade issues [3][4]. - **Funding**: On July 9, the A - share trading volume increased, and the central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider a bull spread strategy for index futures as the index has broken through the short - term shock range, but be cautious when testing key positions [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures closed up, and the yields of most major interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market moved up [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 9, with a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively abundant [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: The CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The CPI increase was mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider allocating more on dips for treasury bond futures and pay attention to the capital interest rate. The T2509 may fluctuate between 108.8 - 109.2 [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market News**: Trump announced tariffs on multiple countries, and the EU - US trade dispute focuses on tariffs in specific industries. The Fed's internal officials have differences in decision - making due to the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation [8][9]. - **Market Performance**: Gold prices showed a V - shaped reversal after a decline, closing up 0.37%. Silver prices were dragged down by copper prices, closing down 0.99% [10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend, and short - term fluctuations are affected by trade agreements and inflation data. Silver is supported by industrial demand [10][11]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: As of July 10, the quotes of major shipping companies were provided [12]. - **Indices**: As of July 7, the SCFIS European line index rose 2.3% month - on - month, and the US West line index fell 1.4% month - on - month [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased by 8.1% year - on - year as of July 8. The PMI data of the Eurozone and the US in June were also provided [12]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The futures market rose on the previous day. If quotes do not fall, there may be a small increase in August. A cautious and bullish attitude towards the 08 contract is recommended [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of July 9, copper prices and premiums decreased. Downstream demand was weak, and the supply was not tight [15]. - **Macro**: Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the new tariff may take effect at the end of July [15]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is restricted, and the production of electrolytic copper in June decreased slightly but is expected to increase in July [16]. - **Demand**: Short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand has overdrawn Q3 demand [17]. - **Inventory**: Global visible inventories, LME inventories, and Chinese social inventories are low, while COMEX inventories are at a historical high [17]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The short - term trading is driven by US copper tariffs. The price is expected to be volatile and weak, and the main contract may range from 76,000 - 79,500 [18]. Other Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Oxide**: Spot prices are tightening, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term but with limited upside. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, and the main contract may range from 20,000 - 20,800 [20][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market is in a weak state with both supply and demand being weak. The main contract may range from 19,200 - 20,000 [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The main contract may range from 21,500 - 23,000 [24][27]. - **Tin**: The short - term macro - environment is volatile. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [27][31]. - **Nickel**: The macro - risk has increased, and the industry has over - supply. The main contract may range from 118,000 - 126,000 [31][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The main contract may range from 12,500 - 13,000 [35][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is relatively strong, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The main contract may range from 60,000 - 65,000 [38][42]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: Steel prices were stable, and the basis weakened [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of raw materials has limited upside potential, and the profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [43]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly from the high level, with a more significant decrease in rebar production [44]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products was stable at a high level, and the demand in the off - season was resilient [44]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products was basically unchanged, with rebar inventory decreasing and hot - rolled coil inventory increasing slightly [44]. - **View**: The steel price is expected to be volatile during the off - season. The main contract of hot - rolled coil may range from 3,150 - 3,300, and the rebar may range from 3,050 - 3,150 [44]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased slightly, and the futures prices rose [46]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [46]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased this week, and the arrival volume at 47 ports decreased significantly [46]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [47]. - **View**: Iron ore is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term and bearish in the medium - long term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2509 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread operation [47]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The futures prices rose, and the spot market was strong. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may decline slightly. It is recommended to conduct positive spread operations and consider hedging [48][51]. - **Coke**: The fourth - round price cut was implemented on June 23. The price is approaching the bottom. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may decline. It is recommended to conduct positive spread operations and consider hedging [52][54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot**: The prices of soybean meal were stable, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal increased slightly, and the trading volume was 1,200 tons [55]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybean export and growth data, Brazilian soybean export data, and EU soybean import data were provided [55][56]. - **Outlook**: The market is bottom - grinding, and the soybean meal price is in a short - term bottom - grinding state [56]. Other Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The spot price is oscillating. The market has potential supply pressure, and the 09 contract has upward pressure [57][58]. - **Corn**: The spot price decreased slightly. The short - term price decline is limited, and the price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [59][60].