Core Insights - The report emphasizes a market strategy focused on maintaining stability during fluctuations, with a particular emphasis on mid-cap blue-chip stocks for timing and selection [4] - The steel industry is highlighted for its transformation towards high-end, green, and digital advancements, which is expected to enhance competitiveness in the special steel sector [4] - The report suggests that the controlled nuclear fusion sector may experience ongoing catalysts, indicating potential for sustained thematic investment opportunities [5] Market Strategy - The index has shown a rebound, recently surpassing 3900 points, with a clear oscillation pattern observed since late August [4] - A mid-term perspective is recommended, focusing on sectors with moderate valuations, low institutional allocation, and improving marginal conditions, particularly in advanced manufacturing and electronics [4] - Specific ETFs are mentioned for investment, including the CSI 500 ETF and cash flow ETFs, which align with the suggested sectors [4] Industry Strategy - The steel industry is undergoing significant policy adjustments aimed at reducing crude steel production and eliminating inefficient capacities, promoting a shift towards high-end special steel and high-performance materials [4] - Companies like CITIC Special Steel and Nanjing Steel are recommended for their focus on high-end special steel products and their potential for growth in exports [4] - The report indicates that the controlled nuclear fusion sector is transitioning from theoretical research to practical engineering, which is expected to drive substantial investment demand in the future [5]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从A股市场中选取涉及普钢、特钢等业 务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映钢铁行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。中证钢铁指数综合覆 盖钢铁产业链上的主要企业，能够体现钢铁行业的整体市场趋势及风格配置特征。 信达证券指出，钢铁行业现阶段面临供需矛盾突出等困扰，行业利润整体下行，但伴随系列"稳增长"政 策纵深推进，钢铁需求总量有望在房地产筑底企稳、基建投资稳中有增、制造业持续发展、钢铁出口高 位等支撑下保持平稳或甚至边际略增。当前，普钢吨钢利润可观，在行业"反内卷"背景下，普钢公司业 绩改善空间较大，有望迎来价值修复。经济高质量发展和新质生产力宏观趋势下，特别是受益于能源周 期、国产替代、高端装备制造的高壁垒高附加值的高端钢材有望充分受益。总体上，未来钢铁行业产业 格局有望稳中趋好，叠加当前部分公司已处于价值低估区域，行业仍具结构性投资机遇。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从A股市场中选取涉及钢铁制造、加工 及相关服务业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映钢铁行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数 覆盖普钢、特钢等领域，具有显著的行业集中特征，成分股每半年调整一次，确保紧密跟踪行业动态。 信达证券指出，钢铁行业在政策引导与市场调节下正逐步摆脱低水平同质化竞争的"内卷"困局，迈向高 质量发展阶段。供给端呈现总量收缩与结构分化，2025年1-10月粗钢产量同比下降3.9%，制造业用钢 （如冷轧薄板、电工钢板带）产量增速显著高于建筑用钢。需求端内需持续收缩，房地产与基建用钢疲 软，但出口同比增长6.4%，成为重要支撑。盈利端受益于原料价格回落，行业毛利率升至6.4%，利润 总额同比大幅增长。钢价中枢下移至3447元/吨，但PPI转正预期增强，预计2026年二季度钢铁PPI有望 回升。行业通过产能置换、环保升级等措施优化供给结构，高端产品占比提升，整体呈现供需双降、结 构优化、盈利边际改善的态势。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares showed a rebound after hitting a low, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3889.35 points, up 0.41%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.84% [1][15] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached approximately 2.1 trillion, an increase of over 200 billion from the previous day, indicating a recovery in trading sentiment [1][15] - The semiconductor equipment and electric grid sectors led the gains, while sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and coal showed weaker performance [1][15] Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 addressed various topics including domestic demand, innovation, anti-involution, and opening up to the outside world [2][16] - The "anti-involution + technological innovation" sectors are expected to benefit from policy support and logical backing, potentially outperforming in the second phase of the bull market [2][16] - The conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and the need to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential [2][16] Investment Strategy - The market is expected to continue its upward potential, supported by anticipated incremental policies aimed at boosting consumption, industrial investment, and technological innovation [3][18] - The current market fluctuations are seen as a rebalancing of funds between short-term data and long-term trends, with expectations of a recovery in corporate profits and economic signals [3][18] - A flexible investment strategy combining core positions with satellite rotation is recommended, focusing on ETFs that capture long-term investment opportunities in the Chinese economy [6][20] Sector Performance - The securities sector is experiencing optimism due to the potential for mergers and acquisitions among major brokerages, which could enhance profitability and market expectations [7][22] - The approval of licenses for stablecoin trading by brokerages opens new business opportunities, potentially increasing revenue from transaction fees and attracting new clients [8][23] - The performance of the securities sector is closely tied to market activity, with increased trading volumes likely to boost brokerage revenues across various business lines [7][22] Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market is supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with gold being favored as a "store of value" amid inflation and stagnation concerns in the U.S. economy [11][25] - The recent approval of stablecoin trading licenses is expected to create new growth avenues for brokerages, enhancing their performance and market valuation [8][23] - Investors are advised to monitor gold ETFs as they align with the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, driven by systemic risks and economic conditions [12][26]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及普钢、特钢等细 分领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映钢铁行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数旨在追踪 钢铁行业的市场动态及经济周期变化，为投资者提供行业投资参考。 国泰海通指出，铁矿或逐步进入宽松周期，价格向上弹性有限，钢铁成本掣肘因素有望改善，行业盈利 中枢或逐步修复。需求端，地产对钢铁需求的拖拽影响已减弱，基建、制造业用钢需求有望平稳增长， 1-10月钢材出口量维持同比增势，预期需求逐步企稳。供给端，约65%钢企亏损，市场化出清已开始出 现，叠加工信部提出继续实施产量压减政策，供需动态平衡下基本面有望修复。长期看，产业集中度提 升、高质量发展是行业趋势，环保与碳中和背景下龙头优势将凸显。 ...

钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取归属于钢铁行业的相 关上市公司证券作为样本，以反映钢铁行业整体表现。指数成分股涵盖普钢、特钢等主要子领域，具有 显著的周期性特征，其走势与宏观经济周期密切相关。 银河证券指出，供给端反内卷政策持续加码，《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》提出实施 产能产量精准调控，严禁新增产能，推动行业增加值年均增长4%。需求结构持续优化，制造业用钢占 比从2020年的42%升至2024年的50%，高端产品如硅钢产量较2020年增长48%，其中高磁感取向硅钢占 比提升至68%。普钢板块表现突出，利润总额占比达58.38%。行业供需格局改善，粗钢产量同比下降 2.9%，表观消费量下降5.7%，出口同比增长9.2%，净出口量显著上升。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Market Strategy - The market is currently experiencing a volatile rotation, with a focus on defensive strategies. It is recommended to prioritize defensive tactics while considering low-value recovery opportunities in the mid-term [2][8] - The "dumbbell strategy" is suggested as a foundational approach, balancing between high dividend yield and low volatility sectors, particularly in the traditional Chinese medicine sector [8] Style Strategy - The technology growth sector is under pressure, while cyclical consumer sectors are positioned for defensive layouts. The market is seeing rapid rotation between technology growth and low-value cyclical sectors [3][8] Industry Strategy - The construction materials industry is expected to emerge from its cyclical bottom, supported by the "Construction Materials Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" which provides clear policy guidance and development momentum. This plan aims to improve supply-demand relationships and restore profitability through systematic measures [4][8] - Structural opportunities in the construction materials sector include traditional leading companies with optimized supply patterns, leaders in green and emerging materials, and pioneers in digital transformation [8] Thematic Strategy - The environmental protection sector is gaining momentum, with potential for long-term driving forces. Recent climate commitments and policy changes signal a significant shift towards green and low-carbon transitions [5][8] - Relevant stocks in the environmental sector include Xuedilong (002658) and Yongqing Environmental Protection (300187), with associated ETFs such as the Environmental ETF (512580) and Carbon Neutrality ETF (159885) [8]

Group 1: Macro Timing Strategy - The macro timing strategy has an annualized return of 7.67% as of October 31, 2025, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.45 and a Calmar ratio of 1.67, indicating a maximum drawdown of -4.60% [2][4][5] - The latest portfolio allocation includes 7.01% in CSI 300 ETF, 7.99% in CSI 500 ETF, 55.94% in government bond ETF, 11.63% in soybean meal ETF, 5.02% in non-ferrous ETF, 7.40% in gold ETF, and 5.00% in currency ETF, with no allocation to S&P 500 ETF and corporate bond ETF [7][8] Group 2: Momentum Strategy - The momentum strategy has an annualized return of 18.25% since January 2020, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.88 and a Calmar ratio of 0.64, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -28.72% [9][10] - The latest portfolio allocation includes 27.01% in Huatai-PB CSI Telecom Theme ETF, 24.92% in Fuguo CSI Tourism Theme ETF, 21.52% in Xinhua CSI Cloud Computing 50 ETF, 16.38% in Huatai-PB CSI Smart Car ETF, and 8.17% in Huaxia CSI Artificial Intelligence ETF [13][14] Group 3: Sector Rotation Strategy - The sector rotation strategy has an annualized return of 10.00% since 2020, with an excess return of 7.27% relative to CSI 300, and a maximum drawdown of -42.98% [15] - The latest portfolio includes home appliance ETF, green power ETF, steel ETF, new energy vehicle ETF, financial ETF, and agricultural ETF, while excluding non-ferrous metals ETF and transportation ETF [18][19] Group 4: Copula-Based Second-Order Stochastic Dominance Strategy - The Copula-based second-order stochastic dominance strategy has an annualized return of 14.41% since January 2020, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.68 and a maximum drawdown of -42.62% [20][24] - The latest portfolio allocation includes 5.00% in Huaxia CSI Petrochemical Industry ETF, 85.00% in Fuguo CSI 800 Bank ETF, 5.00% in Fuguo CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF, and 5.00% in Bosera CSI Oil and Gas Resources ETF [23][25] Group 5: Quantile Random Forest Technology ETF Allocation Strategy - The quantile random forest technology ETF allocation strategy has an annualized return of 13.54% since 2020, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.76 and a maximum drawdown of -29.89% [26] - The latest portfolio allocation consists of 95.63% in technology ETFs, including 4.78% in Jiahua National Communication ETF, 4.78% in Tianhong CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF, 4.78% in Huabao CSI Military Industry ETF, 76.51% in Ping An CSI Consumer Electronics Theme ETF, and 4.78% in Fuguo CSI Technology 50 Strategy ETF [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry has shown a significant improvement in profitability in Q3 2025, driven by policies aimed at reducing competition and improving supply-side dynamics, leading to a return to profitability year-on-year [1][3]. Performance - In Q3 2025, the steel sector achieved revenue of 483.4 billion yuan, remaining stable compared to Q2, and reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% quarter-on-quarter increase and a return to profitability year-on-year [1]. - The average profit margin for steel mills increased from 59% at the end of June to 64% by the end of August, with an average profit margin of 62% in Q3, up 4.5 percentage points from Q2 [3]. Analysis - The "anti-involution" policy has strengthened expectations for supply-side reductions, resulting in a rapid increase in steel prices starting in Q3, combined with lower raw material inventory costs, which has significantly improved steel mill profits [3]. - The estimated net profit per ton for steel in Q3 2025 was 92 yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14 yuan per ton, placing it in the 68th percentile since 2021 [3]. Outlook - Expectations for supply-side reductions are increasing, with policies aimed at reducing production capacity and promoting the exit of inefficient capacities, which will lead to a more competitive environment in the steel industry [4]. - The "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" outlines specific targets for production control to maintain supply-demand balance, indicating a shift towards a phase of survival of the fittest in the industry [4]. Cost Factors - The supply of iron ore is expected to become more favorable for the steel industry, particularly with the upcoming production from the West Simandou iron ore project, which is projected to reach an annual output of 120 million tons [5]. - The profit distribution within the steel industry shows that iron ore profits accounted for 72%, while coking coal and finished products accounted for 7% and 22%, respectively, indicating a significant potential for iron ore to benefit the steel sector [5]. Investment Opportunities - The steel sector is currently undervalued, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.13 as of November 4, 2025, which is in the 56.56th percentile over the past decade, suggesting potential for investment as funds begin to position for the upcoming year [6]. - The unique steel ETF (515210) is recommended for investors looking to capitalize on the anticipated improvements in the steel sector driven by the "anti-involution" policies and favorable supply-demand dynamics [6].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is in a slow bull phase, currently experiencing a typical consolidation period, with the index expected to fluctuate around 3900 points within a range of 100 points [9] - There is a notable shift in capital flow from mid-risk technology growth stocks to high-dividend and micro-cap stocks, suggesting a return to a "barbell strategy" [9] - The macroeconomic backdrop shows a temporary truce in trade disputes, leading to a transitional and rebalancing phase in the market, where trading factors are gaining importance [9] Market Strategy - Emphasis is placed on trading factors and capturing the rhythm of market fluctuations, particularly in the context of the current consolidation phase [3] - The report suggests that cyclical and consumer sectors are expected to outperform in the short term, driven by supply-side optimization and cost reductions [9] Industry Strategy - The banking sector shows positive fundamental signals, with improvements in net interest margins and asset quality, indicating a favorable environment for investment [5] - The report highlights the resilience of state-owned banks and the potential of high-quality, high-elasticity small and medium-sized banks as investment targets [9] Thematic Strategy - The upcoming COP30 climate conference is expected to act as a catalyst for the clean energy sector, with significant opportunities in energy transition areas such as photovoltaics, energy storage, and carbon trading [6][9] - The report identifies specific investment opportunities in companies related to clean energy and environmental protection, anticipating that these sectors will benefit from the outcomes of the climate summit [9]