Summary of Agricultural Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The agricultural sector is currently undervalued, with a PB percentile ranking low among the 31 sub-industries in the Shenwan index, indicating potential investment opportunities due to low valuations in various sub-sectors [1][3][6] Key Insights and Arguments - **Animal Health Sector**: This sub-sector has seen the highest growth, driven by specific events rather than a broad sector effect, with a 73% increase since September 2024 [4][5] - **Swine Farming**: Expected government interventions to address falling pig prices and production capacity reduction, with a focus on increasing imports of U.S. agricultural products like soybeans and wheat, which could lower feed costs and improve market expectations for swine farming [1][6][8] - **Seed Industry**: Potential investment opportunities driven by policy changes and a rebound in grain prices, particularly during the year-end policy announcement period [1][10] - **Pet Food Industry**: Facing intensified domestic competition and impacts from the U.S.-China tariff war, but leading companies like Guai Bao and Zhong Chong are expected to emerge stronger [1][13] - **Poultry Farming**: The high incidence of avian influenza during the peak season (October to February) may create investment opportunities, particularly in regions like France and the U.S. [2][14] Market Performance - The agricultural sector's performance has been relatively weak, ranking 22nd in terms of price changes since September 2024, but improved to 17th since April 2025 [3] - Specific stocks have shown significant gains, often driven by unique events rather than core business logic, indicating a lack of consistent performance across the sector [5] Future Investment Opportunities - The agricultural sector may benefit from ongoing anti-involution policies and low valuations across sub-sectors, particularly in swine farming, where supply increases, cost reductions, and consumption recovery are anticipated [6][9] - Recommended stocks include leading companies in swine farming like Muyuan and Wens, as well as low-cost or growth-oriented firms [9] Additional Insights - The seed industry may see price recovery due to recent declines in corn prices, which were driven by weather-related issues rather than supply increases [10][11] - The rubber industry is currently stable but faces short-term challenges; however, long-term prospects remain positive [12]

Core Insights - Bayer Crop Science is leveraging the China International Import Expo (CIIE) as a significant platform to showcase innovations and deepen local collaborations, presenting 7 "China debuts" and 8 "CIIE debuts" this year [1][2] - The company sees great potential in China's agricultural market, particularly in the biotechnology corn seed sector, which is expected to further unlock market value and opportunities [1][2] Group 1: Innovation and Product Development - Bayer is committed to enhancing agricultural productivity through innovation, addressing challenges such as soil issues and pest outbreaks driven by climate change [1][7] - The company has established a supply chain in China, including a production center in Hangzhou and an innovation center in Danyang, to support localized and customized agricultural solutions [3] - Bayer's CropKey initiative utilizes AI and computational modeling to accelerate the development of crop protection products, aiming to introduce ten major innovative products in the next decade [6] Group 2: Market Environment and Policy - The Chinese government is actively improving the business environment for foreign enterprises, which is beneficial for companies like Bayer, as highlighted by recent engagements with agricultural authorities [4] - The implementation of the new Seed Law in 2022 has strengthened variety rights protection, fostering a more conducive environment for seed industry innovation [4][5] - Bayer anticipates further enhancements in intellectual property protection within the seed sector, which is crucial for industry growth and innovation [4] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The agricultural sector in China faces the dual challenge of ensuring food security while pursuing sustainable development, which presents both risks and opportunities for innovation [7][8] - There is a growing demand from farmers for specialized and customized solutions, alongside increasing consumer expectations for the quality and safety of agricultural products [8] - Bayer aims to support the cultivation of new agricultural productivity through product innovation and local partnerships, focusing on enhancing farmers' resilience and profitability [8]

Core Insights - Bayer Crop Science is leveraging the China International Import Expo (CIIE) as a significant platform to showcase innovations and deepen local collaborations, presenting 7 "China premieres" and 8 "CIIE premieres" this year [1][2] - The company emphasizes the importance of agricultural technology in addressing challenges posed by climate change and soil issues, driving the industry towards innovation and sustainable development [1][7] - Bayer sees substantial market potential in China's agricultural sector, particularly in the biotechnology corn seed market, which is expected to further unlock value and opportunities [2][5] Company Strategy - Bayer has established a comprehensive supply chain in China, including a production supply center in Hangzhou and an innovation center in Danyang, to support localized and customized agricultural needs [3] - The Hangzhou supply center, with an investment exceeding 300 million RMB, is set to enhance the distribution of Bayer's innovative agricultural products across China and Asia [3] - Bayer's joint venture, Zhongzhong International Seed Co., has invested significantly in local corn seed research and development, with an average annual R&D investment of nearly 15% of sales over the past 20 years [3] Market Environment - The Chinese government is actively improving the business environment for foreign enterprises, as evidenced by recent engagements between Bayer's global leadership and Chinese agricultural authorities [4] - The new Seed Law implemented in 2022 aims to strengthen variety rights protection, which is expected to foster innovation in the seed industry [4] - Bayer anticipates further enhancements in intellectual property protection within the seed sector, which will support the overall innovation ecosystem [4] Technological Innovation - Bayer is utilizing AI and computational modeling to accelerate the development of crop protection products, significantly shortening the R&D cycle [6] - The company plans to introduce ten major innovative products over the next decade, focusing on increasing yields while promoting environmental sustainability [6][8] - The integration of digital technologies in agriculture is expected to meet the growing demand for specialized and customized solutions from farmers [8] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The agricultural sector faces dual pressures of ensuring food security and achieving sustainable development, presenting both challenges and opportunities for innovation [7][8] - The demand for high-quality, safe agricultural products is rising, prompting a shift towards efficient, low-toxicity crop protection solutions [8] - Bayer aims to support farmers in enhancing their resilience and productivity through innovative products and local partnerships, aligning with the vision of promoting regenerative agriculture [8]

Core Insights - The Hexi Corridor, historically significant as part of the Silk Road, is experiencing revitalization through unique agricultural and renewable energy developments driven by financial support [2][3]. Financial Support and Agricultural Development - Agricultural Bank's timely financial assistance has enabled local farmers to overcome funding challenges, facilitating the growth of organic vegetable farming in Gansu [3][4]. - The introduction of flexible loan products like "Fumin Loan" has encouraged farmers to expand operations, leading to significant increases in income and employment opportunities [4][8]. - Ma Zhaocun's organic vegetable base has grown to 3,600 acres, generating sales of 42 million yuan in 2024, with an average income of 35,000 yuan per acre, five times higher than conventional vegetable farming [4][8]. Specialty Crop Production - The region has become known for its high-quality grapes, with over 10,000 acres dedicated to grape cultivation, yielding more than 20,000 tons annually and generating over 50 million yuan in revenue [7][8]. - Financial support from Agricultural Bank has enabled local farmers to upgrade their production methods, enhancing both quality and profitability [7][8]. Seed Production Industry - Zhangye is recognized as the largest corn seed production base in China, with over 1 million acres dedicated to seed production, accounting for nearly half of the national seed supply [8][12]. - The Agricultural Bank's "Hexi Corridor Seed Loan" has provided crucial funding to ensure timely operations during critical production periods [8][12]. Dairy Farming Innovations - Dairy farming in Gulang County has faced challenges due to funding and asset limitations, prompting the introduction of the "Smart Livestock Loan" to leverage livestock as collateral [12][13]. - The bank's innovative approach includes real-time monitoring of livestock through IoT technology, enhancing asset management and reducing credit risk [14][13]. Renewable Energy Development - The region is transforming its ecological disadvantages into advantages for renewable energy, with significant solar and wind energy projects underway [16][17]. - Agricultural Bank has committed substantial financing to support these projects, including a 15 billion yuan credit line for a solar power project [18][17]. - The introduction of energy storage solutions is addressing the challenges of renewable energy intermittency, with significant investments in compressed air storage technology [18][19]. Credit Innovations - The "Electricity e-Loan" product allows businesses to leverage their electricity payment history as a basis for credit, promoting sustainable agricultural practices [19][18]. - This innovative financing model supports the development of modern irrigation technologies, enhancing water efficiency in agriculture [19][18].

Group 1 - The Agricultural and Animal Husbandry ETF (159275) showed a stable performance with a 1.5% increase in price and a trading volume of 18.72 million yuan as of November 10 [1] - Key performing stocks included Luoniushan, Honghui Fruits and Vegetables, and Lihua Co., with increases of 5.54%, 5.1%, and 4.49% respectively [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will implement six types of agricultural electronic certificates nationwide starting November 1, 2025, to further standardize industry management processes [1] Group 2 - The livestock sector achieved revenue of 366.406 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.97%, with a net profit of 23.296 billion yuan, up 4.52% year-on-year [1] - The revenue and net profit growth rates have slowed compared to the second quarter, with gross and net profit margins at 12.87% and 6.54%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.16 percentage points and 0.20 percentage points [1] - The cost rate during this period was 6.07%, down 0.75 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities indicated that the price of yellow feather chickens may have bottomed out, with expectations for better average prices in the second half of the year due to supply-side adjustments [2] - The white feather chicken supply is expected to tighten significantly in 2025 due to overseas avian influenza restrictions, leading to a substantial reduction in domestic breeding volume [2] - The dairy cow inventory has decreased by 8%, indicating a potential turning point in milk prices [2]

提升农业综合生产能力和质量效益。 ——摘自"十五五"规划建议 让南繁育种更有科技含量 前不久，在海南三亚的中国农业科学院国家南繁研究院试验基地，我们团队为几株特殊的大豆办了 场"周岁生日会"。从去年11月播种至今，它们已长到两米高，茎秆粗壮。这些"大豆树"，是我们多年科 研工作的成果。 我与大豆打了30多年交道，对大豆有着深厚的感情。大豆很"聪明"，能敏锐捕捉到夏至后每天日照变 短、黑夜渐长的细微讯息，启动开花结荚过程。大豆也很"执拗"，对光温极为敏感。选育一个优良新品 种，往往需要10到12年。近年来，育种周期成为我国大豆育种研究的关键。 如何加快品种更新？我们团队把主战场搬到了海南三亚的国家南繁科研育种基地，这里光温条件优渥， 是天然的育种加速器。过去，科研人员像候鸟一样，只在冬季来这里给育种材料上个"寒假补习班"，进 行加代繁殖。近年来，我们努力推动一场从"南繁"到"南育"的转型——要把这里从季节性的中转站，建 成全流程、现代化的育种创新基地。 但大豆是典型的短日照作物，大部分北方品种被引到低纬度的海南后，会提前开花，植株也会变得矮 小，难以进行关键的杂交操作，而杂交正是培育优良品种的源头。如何破解这个 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, despite ongoing supply pressures and potential acceleration in capacity reduction [1][5][6]. Group 1: Pig Farming - Supply pressures continue to be significant, with a reported decrease in the number of breeding sows by 0.77% month-on-month in October [5][17]. - The average price of market pigs has declined to 12.16 CNY/kg as of November 6, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.49% [5][26]. - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses reported at -89.21 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and -175.54 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of November 7 [5][37]. Group 2: Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broilers remained stable at 7.09 CNY/kg as of November 7, with a reported loss of -1.25 CNY per bird [5][38]. - The number of breeding chickens has increased significantly, with a 143.18% month-on-month rise in the number of grandparent stock updated in October [5][38]. Group 3: Animal Health - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by a recovery in breeding cycles and an increase in inventory levels [5][47]. - The report highlights the ongoing development of vaccines, including progress in African swine fever vaccine trials, which may enhance the sector's growth potential [5][47]. Group 4: Seed Industry - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn have shown slight declines, with wheat at 2487 CNY/ton, soybean meal at 3098 CNY/ton, and corn at 2239 CNY/ton as of November 7 [5][51]. - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the promotion of biotechnology in the seed industry [5][51]. Group 5: Pet Industry - Pet food exports amounted to 823 million CNY in September, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, while domestic sales continue to grow, with a 3% increase across major e-commerce platforms [5][56][59]. - The report suggests that companies with a lower proportion of export business may be less affected by tariff disruptions, while those focusing on domestic growth are likely to enhance their market share [5][56][59].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [9] Core Views - The swine sector continues to experience losses, with an increasing number of culled sows, indicating a need to focus on the expected recovery in this sector [2][13] - The dairy and beef sectors are undergoing significant capacity reduction, with a potential turning point for milk prices anticipated [3][15] - The pet sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and the rise of domestic brands, reshaping the competitive landscape [4][16] - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding stock shortages and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [5][18] - The seed industry is poised for a turnaround, with an emphasis on biotechnology and the commercialization of genetically modified crops [7][23] - The feed sector shows signs of recovery, with leading companies like Haida Group achieving revenue and profit growth [24][26] Summary by Sections Swine Sector - The industry continues to face losses, with the average price of live pigs at 12.02 CNY/kg, down 4.07% from the previous week [13] - The average market value per head for leading companies is at historical low levels, with Muyuan at 3000-3500 CNY/head and Wens at 2000-3000 CNY/head [14] - Recommended stocks include leading breeders like Muyuan and Wens, with additional focus on flexible stocks such as Shennong Group and Dekang Agriculture [14] Beef Sector - The price of beef cattle is showing signs of stabilization, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.62 CNY/kg [15] - The dairy cow population has decreased by 8%, indicating a significant capacity reduction [15] - Companies with mother cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [15] Pet Sector - The Double Eleven shopping festival highlighted the resilience and structural upgrades in the pet food market, with domestic brands gaining market share [4][16] - Key recommendations include pet food brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on companies with technological advantages and comprehensive product lines [17] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is under pressure due to breeding stock shortages, with a focus on the impact of avian influenza on imports [18][19] - Yellow chicken prices are expected to improve due to supply constraints and increasing consumer demand [20] - Recommended stocks include leading companies like Shennong Development and Yisheng Biological [19] Seed Sector - The seed industry is expected to benefit from increased focus on food security and the commercialization of genetically modified crops [7][23] - Key recommendations include leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [23] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with significant market share growth and revenue increases [24][26] - The overall feed market is expected to recover as smaller companies exit the market, leading to improved conditions for remaining players [24]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming 24th Guangdong Seed Industry Expo in Huizhou aims to showcase agricultural innovations and promote food security through advanced seed varieties and technologies [3][4][56]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event will take place on November 11, focusing on the theme "Revitalizing Seed Industry to Strengthen the Foundation, Technology Empowering Agriculture" [3][4]. - It will feature 570 new seed varieties and 9 core technologies, aiming to enhance agricultural productivity and sustainability [22][27]. Group 2: Agricultural Significance - Huizhou is a key city in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, known for its diverse agricultural products, including rice, sweet corn, and various fruits and vegetables [8][9][10]. - The Huizhou Agricultural Science Research Institute has established nearly 7,000 variety observation platforms and promoted over 100 superior new varieties to support local agricultural development [12][13]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The expo will demonstrate practical applications of 9 efficient cultivation technologies, such as increasing rice yield by 10% and saving 40-50% water in drought-resistant rice cultivation [27][28]. - Innovative techniques will address agricultural production challenges, contributing to high-quality agricultural development [36]. Group 4: Comprehensive Agricultural Chain - A "From Seed to Table" exhibition area will cover various aspects of the agricultural supply chain, including seeds, pest control, seasonal vegetables, and agricultural insurance [38][42]. - The event will also feature local specialty products from various districts, showcasing Huizhou's high-quality agricultural offerings [40][41]. Group 5: Educational Initiatives - The expo will include educational activities for children, allowing them to engage with agricultural science and understand local crops [51][53]. - This initiative aims to foster interest in agriculture and technology among the younger generation, promoting future talent in the industry [50]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The event is positioned as a significant opportunity for modernizing agriculture in the Greater Bay Area, facilitating collaboration among research, enterprises, and farmers [56][58].

当全球经贸格局深度重构，当中国开放大门越开越大，海南自贸港的使命非比寻常。 11月6日，习近平总书记在海南省三亚市听取海南自由贸易港建设工作汇报时强调，建设海南自由贸易港 的战略目标，就是要把海南自由贸易港打造成为引领我国新时代对外开放的重要门户。 这一定位，蕴含着深远的战略考量。 资料图：海口新海港。 在贸易保护主义抬头的当下，中国正加快建设更高水平开放型经济新体制。高标准建设海南自贸港，是中 国以实际行动"推动建设开放型世界经济"的宣誓，为全球发展注入更多动力和确定性。 海南自贸港将于2025年12月18日正式启动全岛封关运作，将实施以"'一线'放开、'二线'管住、岛内自由"为 基本特征的自由化便利化政策制度。 中国新闻网消息，南海之滨，千帆竞发。 这不是简单的政策洼地，而是旨在建立与国际通行规则衔接的合规机制。 从全国首张跨境服务贸易负面清单，到"一线放开、二线管住"的海关监管创新……诸多改革创新举措，彰 显着顶层设计之下海南"摸着石头过河"的敢闯敢试。 数据显示，自贸港政策落地以来，海南实际使用外资1025亿元，年均增长14.6%。境外直接投资97.8亿美 元，年均增长97%。新设外资企业8098家， ...