A critical question is whether the price change is temporary or permanent. It is easy to focus on the recent rise in oil prices, but compared to early April, oil prices are only up modestly. Relative to mid-January, oil prices are little changed and are indeed down a touch on a year-over-year basis. June 22, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea War and Oil This entire year has been marked with global uncertainty. The discussions of a trade war have shifted again to disc ...

June 20, 2025 11:35 AM GMT Cross-Asset Flows and Allocations Where Are Equity Flows Going? Demand for US equities is weakening to almost the sole benefit of European stocks. Section 899 concerns can sustain these trends, but we think the narrative of foreign investors deserting US stocks is overdone. Flows are not a zero-sum game; the US market should still see inflows, just less of them. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: Net flows to ex US 'international' funds have increased dramatically since end-2024 -3 -2 -1 0 ...

June 20, 2025 05:00 AM GMT Waiting on the world to change The Fed remained on hold at the June meeting. The FOMC expects to see the effects of tariffs on inflation in the summer, as do we. Key Takeaways US Economics Weekly | North America 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26 Jul-26 Sep-26 Nov-26 Core PCE (%) y/y (%) 3-month SAAR (%) MS Forecast Source: BEA, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts M ...

June 22, 2025 08:14 PM GMT Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Jenny Zheng, CFA Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Stablecoins and RMB Internationalization? A Long Game Related Reports: Stablecoins and RMB Internationalization? A Long Game (19 June 2025) Pan's Plan for RMB in A Multipolar Monetary World (18 June 2025) For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure ...

Why is Beijing paying attention to stablecoins now? The US Senate's passage of the GENIUS Act, which mandates fully backed dollar stablecoins, marks a turning point. If passed by the House, the Act would effectively transform USD-pegged stablecoins into synthetic dollars (currently accounting for 99% of the stablecoin market), hardwiring them into global payment rails and boosting demand for US Treasuries. In our view, this is not a challenge to dollar dominance – it's a reinforcement of it. Stablecoins are ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies and initiatives from the Central Financial Committee aim to accelerate the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, enhancing its competitiveness and global influence over the next five to ten years [2][4]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Central Financial Committee issued an opinion outlining six major initiatives to support the development of Shanghai's international financial center, including deepening financial market construction and enhancing financial institution capabilities [2]. - Eight specific policy measures were announced by the People's Bank of China to be implemented in Shanghai, focusing on structural monetary policy innovations and enhancing financial services [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Performance - In 2024, Shanghai's financial sector is projected to achieve a value-added of 807.273 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, and accounting for 15% of the city's GDP [4]. - The proportion of foreign financial institutions in Shanghai has reached 31.1%, with cross-border RMB settlement volume making up 47% of the national total, indicating a robust financial market [4]. Group 3: Global Positioning - Shanghai is positioned as a leading international financial center, with its stock exchange ranking third globally by market capitalization and its bond custody scale leading among global exchanges [8]. - The city is recognized for its significant trading volumes in various financial instruments, including being a leader in spot gold trading and having the highest trading volume for multiple commodity futures [8].

近日，第八届世界闽商大会和第二十三届中国·海峡创新项目成果交易会在福州举行，兴业证券与 白兔集团、天图资本进行莆田市荔城白兔新消费并购股权投资基金项目签约。 据介绍，莆田市荔城白兔新消费并购股权投资基金由兴业证券发起设立，基金总规模10亿元，是 福建省首只（全国第三只）由产业资本控股，并与市区两级政府及国有企业深度合作成立的并购基 金。 来源：兴业证券 榜单： 「2025投资机构软实力排行榜」评选启动 峰会： 「2025母基金年度论坛」盛大启幕：汇聚中国力量！ 对接需求请扫码 每日｜荐读 热文： 一纸新规，炸出一级市场的管理费焦虑 热文： 今年，上市公司热衷做并购基金 ...

Financial Collaboration - Shanghai and Hong Kong signed the "Action Plan for Collaborative Development of International Financial Centers," focusing on 38 measures to enhance financial market connectivity and cross-border financial services innovation [1] - The plan prioritizes optimizing the Bond Connect and Swap Connect mechanisms, aiming to establish Shanghai and Hong Kong as global centers for RMB asset allocation and risk management [1] Macro Dynamics - The People's Bank of China announced the establishment of an interbank market trading report database to collect and analyze trading data across various financial sub-markets [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized strengthening the linkage between stocks and bonds to support technological innovation, promoting the development of technology innovation bonds and related financial products [3][4] Green Finance Initiatives - The People's Bank of China plans to pilot green foreign debt policies to encourage eligible enterprises to utilize foreign debt for green projects [6] Regional Financial Developments - The Ministry of Finance allocated a new local government debt limit of 2,334 billion yuan for Henan Province in 2025, with specific limits for general and special debts [8] - Shanghai plans to issue 68 billion yuan in special bonds for urban infrastructure projects [9] Financial Market Updates - The financial situation in Henan Province showed a loan balance of 92,521.6 billion yuan as of the end of May, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [10] - The Hainan branch of the People's Bank of China is supporting local banks in issuing technology innovation financial bonds [12] Bond Issuance Activities - The Zhumadian Urban Construction Investment Group completed the issuance of 3.71 billion yuan in renewable corporate bonds with an interest rate of 2.57% [14] - The Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company is in the process of registering a public bond issuance of up to 40 billion yuan [13] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment indicates a noticeable supportive attitude from the central bank, with discussions around the potential resumption of bond purchases and the inclusion of short-term government bonds in reserve requirements [19]

June 15, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea A Détente, Not a Deal: The State of US-China Trade While media headlines may have suggested last week's trade agreement between the US and China was a breakthrough, we think investors need to see it more as a détente than a comprehensive deal. The agreement represents a tactical pause in escalating tensions rather than a resolution of fundamental disagreements. Why view it this way? Consider: This limited deal aligns with Mo ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or assets discussed Core Insights - Uncertainty surrounding US tax and trade policy, along with significant US dollar weakness, suggests a potential global shift away from US dollar-denominated assets [1] - The cross-currency (XCCY) basis market can be utilized to gauge demand for US dollars and related assets, indicating a trend where investors show less interest in USD-denominated assets while favoring EUR and JPY assets [7][15] - The report anticipates that the tightening trend in the XCCY basis will persist until Federal Reserve rate cuts enhance the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets on a foreign exchange-hedged basis [16][97] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - In times of global market stress, investors typically seek safe haven currencies, with the USD historically reinforcing comfort in USD-denominated assets [8] - Post "Liberation Day" on April 2, 2025, the USD showed unusual depreciation against other currencies, raising questions about its safe haven status [11][68] XCCY Basis Market Dynamics - The XCCY basis reflects offshore demand for long-term USD funding and onshore demand for non-USD-denominated assets [7][14] - Recent movements in the XCCY basis indicate a reduced appetite for USD-denominated assets and an increased interest in EUR and JPY assets [15][16] - The report outlines key drivers of the XCCY basis, including supply and demand factors for both currencies, with negative spreads indicating a premium for borrowing USD [22][24] Key Drivers of XCCY Basis - Short-term drivers include USD liquidity, regulatory constraints, and demand for foreign assets, while medium- to long-term drivers focus on overseas asset demand and issuance-related factors [25][35][46] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the XCCY basis as it provides high-frequency signals regarding foreign demand for USD and USD-denominated assets [65][77] Recent Market Observations - Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, negative CCY/SOFR basis swap spreads widened but quickly normalized, indicating limited investor flight to quality [78][82] - The report suggests that diminished demand for USD among offshore investors may be occurring, with US investors showing increased interest in overseas assets [85][96]