Financial Collaboration - Shanghai and Hong Kong signed the "Action Plan for Collaborative Development of International Financial Centers," focusing on 38 measures to enhance financial market connectivity and cross-border financial services innovation [1] - The plan prioritizes optimizing the Bond Connect and Swap Connect mechanisms, aiming to establish Shanghai and Hong Kong as global centers for RMB asset allocation and risk management [1] Macro Dynamics - The People's Bank of China announced the establishment of an interbank market trading report database to collect and analyze trading data across various financial sub-markets [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized strengthening the linkage between stocks and bonds to support technological innovation, promoting the development of technology innovation bonds and related financial products [3][4] Green Finance Initiatives - The People's Bank of China plans to pilot green foreign debt policies to encourage eligible enterprises to utilize foreign debt for green projects [6] Regional Financial Developments - The Ministry of Finance allocated a new local government debt limit of 2,334 billion yuan for Henan Province in 2025, with specific limits for general and special debts [8] - Shanghai plans to issue 68 billion yuan in special bonds for urban infrastructure projects [9] Financial Market Updates - The financial situation in Henan Province showed a loan balance of 92,521.6 billion yuan as of the end of May, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [10] - The Hainan branch of the People's Bank of China is supporting local banks in issuing technology innovation financial bonds [12] Bond Issuance Activities - The Zhumadian Urban Construction Investment Group completed the issuance of 3.71 billion yuan in renewable corporate bonds with an interest rate of 2.57% [14] - The Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company is in the process of registering a public bond issuance of up to 40 billion yuan [13] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment indicates a noticeable supportive attitude from the central bank, with discussions around the potential resumption of bond purchases and the inclusion of short-term government bonds in reserve requirements [19]

June 15, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea A Détente, Not a Deal: The State of US-China Trade While media headlines may have suggested last week's trade agreement between the US and China was a breakthrough, we think investors need to see it more as a détente than a comprehensive deal. The agreement represents a tactical pause in escalating tensions rather than a resolution of fundamental disagreements. Why view it this way? Consider: This limited deal aligns with Mo ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or assets discussed Core Insights - Uncertainty surrounding US tax and trade policy, along with significant US dollar weakness, suggests a potential global shift away from US dollar-denominated assets [1] - The cross-currency (XCCY) basis market can be utilized to gauge demand for US dollars and related assets, indicating a trend where investors show less interest in USD-denominated assets while favoring EUR and JPY assets [7][15] - The report anticipates that the tightening trend in the XCCY basis will persist until Federal Reserve rate cuts enhance the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets on a foreign exchange-hedged basis [16][97] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - In times of global market stress, investors typically seek safe haven currencies, with the USD historically reinforcing comfort in USD-denominated assets [8] - Post "Liberation Day" on April 2, 2025, the USD showed unusual depreciation against other currencies, raising questions about its safe haven status [11][68] XCCY Basis Market Dynamics - The XCCY basis reflects offshore demand for long-term USD funding and onshore demand for non-USD-denominated assets [7][14] - Recent movements in the XCCY basis indicate a reduced appetite for USD-denominated assets and an increased interest in EUR and JPY assets [15][16] - The report outlines key drivers of the XCCY basis, including supply and demand factors for both currencies, with negative spreads indicating a premium for borrowing USD [22][24] Key Drivers of XCCY Basis - Short-term drivers include USD liquidity, regulatory constraints, and demand for foreign assets, while medium- to long-term drivers focus on overseas asset demand and issuance-related factors [25][35][46] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the XCCY basis as it provides high-frequency signals regarding foreign demand for USD and USD-denominated assets [65][77] Recent Market Observations - Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, negative CCY/SOFR basis swap spreads widened but quickly normalized, indicating limited investor flight to quality [78][82] - The report suggests that diminished demand for USD among offshore investors may be occurring, with US investors showing increased interest in overseas assets [85][96]

Core Insights - The article compares Goldman Sachs (GS) and Moelis & Company (MC), highlighting their distinct business models within the investment banking industry, with GS being a global financial giant and MC being a focused advisory-driven boutique [1][2]. Goldman Sachs (GS) - GS maintains a leadership position in global investment banking, particularly in M&A advisory, equity, and debt underwriting, with a 24% increase in IB revenues in 2024 due to a rebound in corporate financing activity [3]. - However, GS experienced an 8% decline in IB revenues in Q1 2025, attributed to market turmoil and uncertainty over monetary policy, though its leading position in deal-making suggests enduring client trust [4]. - The firm is strategically exiting lower-margin consumer finance businesses to focus on high-return sectors like investment banking and trading, including ending its partnership with Apple on the Apple Card and Apple Savings account [5]. - Goldman Asset Management aims for aggressive growth in private credit, targeting a portfolio of $300 billion by 2030, reinforcing its long-term growth potential [6]. Moelis & Company (MC) - MC demonstrates resilient performance driven by its high-quality advisory platform, achieving a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over five years despite revenue declines in 2019, 2022, and 2023 [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from structural tailwinds in M&A and capital advisory, with elevated corporate debt levels driving demand for restructuring services [8]. - MC's business is diversified across various sectors and geographies, with no significant client concentration, and has advised on over $5.1 trillion in transactions since inception [9]. - MC projects a 42.4% year-over-year earnings growth for 2026, significantly outpacing GS's projected 13.1% growth, and offers a higher dividend yield of 4.64% compared to GS's 1.92% [10][22]. Performance and Valuation Comparison - Over the past year, GS shares gained 38.7%, while MC shares increased by 7.5%, both outperforming the industry average rise of 33.1% [11]. - GS is currently trading at a forward P/E of 13.26X, higher than its five-year median of 10.16X, while MC trades at a forward P/E of 25.65X, above its five-year median of 20.16X [14]. - Both companies have dividend yields exceeding the industry average, with MC having a notable edge [16]. Estimates and Growth Potential - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GS indicates a revenue rise of 3.8% and 5.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with earnings growth of 9.6% and 13.1% [19]. - In contrast, MC's estimates reflect a revenue increase of 2.8% and 20.9% for 2025 and 2026, with earnings growth of 0.6% and 42.4% [20]. - MC's advisory-driven model aligns well with the rising demand for restructuring services, indicating significant long-term potential [21][22]. - Despite trading at a premium valuation, MC's market capitalization of $4.4 billion compared to GS's $188.3 billion suggests more room for growth [23].

June 13, 2025 05:00 AM GMT US Economics Weekly | North America Weakness still lies ahead This week's inflation data showed no clear signs of a tariff push, but we expect higher goods inflation in coming months. Slower core services may give the Fed confidence that the inflation pickup will be transitory. With higher inflation ahead, weaker consumption growth is still in front of us. | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Idea | | June 13, 2025 05:00 AM GMT | | | | US Economics Weekly North America | Morgan Sta ...

Asia Insights Economics - Asia ex-Japan China: Credit growth remained steady in May despite disappointing loan growth New aggregate financing (AF) came in slightly below the market expectations, with outstanding AF growth unchanged. The downside surprise to consensus was aqain primarily driven by much weaker-than-expected new RMB loans, with the growth rate of outstanding loans dropping again and reaching another historical low. Again, we think the sharp slowdown in loan growth was mostly driven by the ongo ...

June 13, 2025 10:41 PM GMT Agency MBS Weekly | North America Guess Who? Yes, they may own more conventionals than you think. But their demand has been muted, and it's unlikely to pick up meaningfully in the near term. This week, we take a closer look at holders of conventionals vs. Ginnies, the strength of CMO demand, and servicing transfer impact on prepays. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: A common assumption is that overseas investors predominantly hold Ginnies for their explicit government guarantee; however, w ...

Reiterate Commitment to Fight for Liquidity and Transparency Against Entrenched Incumbents Set Record Straight on Ionic’s Most Recent Misleading Statements Urge Their Fellow Stockholders to Learn More About Their Plan for Change at www.ionicvote.com SAN FRANCISCO, June 17, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tony Vejseli, Chris Villinger, and Brett Perry (the “Concerned Stockholders”), stockholders of Ionic Digital Inc. (“Ionic” or the “Company”), today issued a public letter to their fellow stockholders announcing th ...

June 16, 2025 11:41 AM GMT Global Macro Strategist Consensus Views Not Always Sizeable Consensus Positions Feedback from our mid-year outlook suggests our directional views are commonplace among strategists and investors alike. In response, investors have taken a cautious approach to implementing them – sowing the seeds for disappointment as USD declines and the UST curve steepens further. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. Must reads from Global Macro Strategy G10 FX Strategy: USD Weakn ...

June 16, 2025 01:13 PM GMT Morgan Stanley Research Global Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East – Our Early Thoughts on Implications for the Economy and Markets June 16, 2025 Serena Tang – Global Head of Cross-Asset Strategy | Strategist Seth Carpenter – Chief Global Economist Brian Gibbons – Head of Energy Credit Research | Credit Analyst MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC Martijn Rats – Global Commodities Strategist | Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist Marina Zavolock – C ...