Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the recent investment style is characterized by three main features: new, small, and fast. The strongest industry trends since September last year are AI and new consumption, which align with new industrial logic [2][6][7] - The first feature, "new," highlights that the strongest industries during 2013-2015 were TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) driven by the growth of mobile internet, similar to the current AI trend. New consumption sectors such as dining, tourism, light industry, and textiles outperformed traditional sectors like food and home appliances [3][6][7] - The second feature, "small," notes that small-cap stocks are currently active, especially during market fluctuations, mirroring the performance of small-cap stocks during 2013-2015 [11][15] - The third feature, "fast," refers to the rapid rotation of market trends, with AI and robotics showing strong excess returns in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year, but weaker performance recently. This mirrors the volatility seen in TMT during 2013-2015 [12][15] Group 2 - The report identifies the underlying reasons for the current investment style as a weak economy with a strong market, a decline in old funds (active public funds), and a rise in new funds (financing balance, speculative quantitative funds). Additionally, continuous policy support is noted, with a slow IPO pace [15][19] - The report suggests that despite a weak economic backdrop, there are structural opportunities in the stock market, similar to the conditions observed during 2013-2015 when economic growth was also weak [15][19] - The report anticipates that the market may experience a slight pullback from late May to July, with pressures including slow economic recovery and reduced trading enthusiasm among retail investors. However, a return to a bullish market is possible in Q3 if any of the factors related to earnings, policy, or retail funds turn optimistic [21][23]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Annualized Discount Model for CSI 500 Futures - **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies optimal entry points for building positions based on historical performance when the annualized discount of CSI 500 futures exceeds a certain threshold, indicating market pessimism. [1][11] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses the annualized discount rate of the next-month contract of CSI 500 index futures as the key metric. - Historical data from 2017 onwards is analyzed to determine the relationship between the discount rate and subsequent returns. - Key findings: - When the annualized discount exceeds 15%, holding the index for more than 12 trading days results in average cumulative returns trending upward. - Holding for over 33 trading days yields a probability of positive cumulative returns exceeding 50%. - Holding for over 50 trading days increases the probability of positive returns to approximately 60%. - Formula: $ \text{Annualized Discount} = \frac{\text{Spot Price} - \text{Futures Price}}{\text{Futures Price}} \times \frac{365}{\text{Days to Maturity}} $ - Spot Price: Current index level - Futures Price: Price of the futures contract - Days to Maturity: Remaining days until the futures contract expires [11] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market pessimism and identifies potential rebound opportunities, making it a useful tool for timing market entry. [11] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Annualized Discount Model for CSI 500 Futures - **Key Metrics**: - Holding for 12 trading days: Average cumulative returns trend upward. - Holding for 33 trading days: Positive return probability > 50%. - Holding for 50 trading days: Positive return probability ~60%. [1][11] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Proprietary Active Trader Activity Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the activity level of speculative funds (e.g., proprietary traders) to gauge market sentiment and risk appetite. [3][13] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Data Source: Derived from "Dragon and Tiger List" (龙虎榜) data. - The indicator tracks the marginal changes in active trader participation over time. - Observations: - From late April, the indicator showed a consistent decline, reflecting reduced risk appetite and cautious market sentiment. - Recently, the indicator has shown marginal improvement, suggesting a potential rebound in risk appetite. [3][13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides timely insights into the behavior of speculative funds, which can serve as a leading indicator for shifts in market sentiment. [3][13] 2. Factor Name: BARRA Style Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors assess the performance of various style attributes (e.g., momentum, volatility, size) to understand market preferences. [23][24] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Data Source: BARRA factor model. - Key Observations for the Week: - Fundamental factors (e.g., profitability) showed significant positive excess returns. - Stocks with high short-term momentum and high volatility outperformed. - Size-related factors (e.g., market capitalization) continued to underperform, indicating a preference for mid- to small-cap stocks. - Formula: Factor returns are calculated as the weighted average of stock returns within each style category. [23][24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factors effectively capture shifts in market preferences, providing actionable insights for portfolio adjustments. [23][24] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Proprietary Active Trader Activity Indicator - **Key Metrics**: - Indicator showed consistent decline from late April, reflecting reduced risk appetite. - Recent marginal improvement suggests a potential rebound in speculative activity. [3][13] 2. BARRA Style Factors - **Key Metrics**: - Momentum: +0.2% weekly return. - Volatility: +0.2% weekly return. - Profitability: +0.3% weekly return. - Size: -0.5% weekly return. - Nonlinear Size: -0.3% weekly return. [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a potential growth exceeding the market average in the coming months [37]. Core Insights - Lululemon's FY25Q1 performance shows steady growth with revenue of $2.371 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.32%, although slightly below analyst expectations of $2.57 billion. The gross margin improved by 0.62 percentage points to 58.34% due to reduced product costs and optimized discounts [10][12]. - The company expects full-year revenue to be between $11.15 billion and $11.30 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5%-7%. Excluding the additional week in 2024, the expected growth is 7%-8% [15][10]. - In North America, revenue reached $1.675 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year, while the Chinese market showed strong performance with revenue of $368 million, up 21% year-on-year [12][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - In April, apparel retail sales grew by 2.2%, underperforming the overall consumer market due to adverse weather conditions affecting spring apparel sales. The report anticipates improvement in May due to better weather and increased consumer activity [16][3]. - Raw material prices remained stable, with fluctuations in cotton and synthetic fiber prices noted [19][20]. Investment Recommendations - For apparel brands, recommendations include Hai Lan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and expanding its store presence, and Anta Sports, which is expected to benefit from strong performance in its multi-brand strategy. Additionally, recommendations include leading brands like Bi Yin Le Fen and All Cotton Times [22][4]. - In the upstream manufacturing sector, the report suggests that leading textile manufacturers like Zhejiang Ziran and Shenzhou International are well-positioned to benefit from market shifts due to tariff impacts [22][4]. Market Review and Company News - The textile and apparel sector saw a 1.89% increase in the past week, with notable performances from companies like Langsha and Huasheng [23][28]. - Key company announcements include Nanshan Zhishang's stock issuance and Jiangnan Buyi's land bidding for industrial use [34][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the expected acceleration in the new tobacco sector for British American Tobacco in the second half of 2025, driven by strong performance in oral tobacco products and the phased launch of new products [2][6] - The 618 shopping festival is anticipated to boost domestic brands in personal care and outdoor sports, with significant growth potential for companies like Morning Glory and others leveraging IP strategies [2][6] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is expected to gradually recover as consumer confidence improves, with many companies currently valued at historical lows. Key players to watch include custom furniture leaders like Oppein and Sophia [6][10] Paper and Packaging - As of June 6, 2025, prices for various paper products remain stable, with white cardboard prices increasing slightly. The report suggests a cautious outlook due to overall weak terminal demand [6][54] - The paper industry saw a 1.6% year-on-year decline in revenue from January to April 2025, but fixed asset investment increased by 7.6% during the same period [66][68] Light Industry Consumption - The report notes that domestic brands in personal care are rapidly expanding their market presence, particularly through platforms like Douyin. Companies such as Dekang and Baiya are highlighted for their growth potential [6][8] Export Chain - The report indicates a robust outlook for export-oriented companies, with shipping costs rising due to increased demand for goods from China. Companies like Zhongxin and Zhejiang Nature are recommended for investment [6][8] New Tobacco - British American Tobacco's new tobacco segment is projected to see significant growth in the latter half of 2025, with a full-year growth expectation of mid-single digits, driven by strong performance in oral tobacco and the introduction of new products [6][8] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with notable sales increases during the 618 shopping festival. Brands like Anta and Li Ning are recommended for their strong performance [6][10]

Group 1: Foreign Trade Resilience - Guangdong maintains its position as China's "foreign trade first province," with a 4.9% year-on-year growth in foreign trade in the first four months of 2025, outpacing the national growth rate of 2.9% [2] - The province's foreign trade showed a month-on-month recovery, with January experiencing a 3.7% decline, followed by growth of 3.1% in February and 14% in March, achieving historical highs in import and export volumes [2][3] - Guangdong's "Five External Linkages" strategy has been instrumental in stabilizing and expanding foreign trade, focusing on dual efforts in foreign trade and foreign investment, as well as leveraging external intelligence for industrial upgrades [2][3] Group 2: Cross-Border E-commerce Development - Guangdong's cross-border e-commerce is projected to reach a total import and export volume of 745.4 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for over one-third of the national total, serving as a key support for enhancing foreign trade quality [3] - The province has organized numerous trade promotion activities, including the "Cross-Border E-commerce Hundred Counties Tour," connecting over a thousand county-level enterprises with e-commerce platforms [3][4] - The Guangzhou cross-border e-commerce policy seminar introduced various support policies for jewelry enterprises, including warehouse rent subsidies and rewards for brand internationalization [5] Group 3: Technological Integration in Industry - Guangdong's high-quality development is driven by the deep integration of technology and industry, exemplified by the establishment of a fully unmanned system application scenario in Nansha [6] - The AI-driven company, Guangzhou Taidong Technology, has successfully applied generative AI in cross-border e-commerce, significantly reducing the time and cost of advertising material production [7] - The province's AI and robotics industry is projected to exceed 220 billion yuan in core industry scale by 2024, maintaining a leading position nationally [8] Group 4: Policy and Institutional Support - Guangdong is enhancing its international trade cooperation mechanisms, particularly with ASEAN, to promote cross-border trade and investment growth [10] - The province is also focusing on deepening economic cooperation within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, facilitating regulatory alignment and business integration [11] - The establishment of the Guangdong AI and Robotics Industry Alliance marks a significant step towards accelerating technological innovation and industry integration [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - Guangdong's development path is characterized by its role as a "ballast stone" for foreign trade and a "dual-engine" for industrial technology, positioning itself for higher global value chain integration [13] - The province aims to leverage initiatives like "Yue Chain ASEAN" and "Yue Enterprises Going Global" to enhance its international economic influence [13]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, applying pressure on multiple countries to submit trade negotiation proposals by a specified deadline, which has sparked widespread controversy and concern internationally [1][3] - The current actual tariff level in the U.S. is the highest since 1938, and if the "reciprocal tariffs" are fully implemented, it will reach the highest level since the 1890s, directly impacting the stability of the global trade system [1][3] - The OECD has downgraded U.S. economic growth forecasts for 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6% and for 2026 to 1.5%, indicating significant negative repercussions on the U.S. economy due to the tariff policies [3][6] Group 2 - Vietnam has been specifically targeted by the U.S. to reduce its reliance on Chinese materials and components, which poses a significant threat to its economy as a large portion of its manufacturing relies on Chinese imports [3][4] - The structural dependency of Vietnam on Chinese intermediate products means that the costs of decoupling will far exceed the benefits gained from tariff reductions, complicating the trade relationship [4][6] - The increase in tariffs has led to rising costs in various sectors, including automotive and construction, with reports indicating an 8%-12% increase in metal packaging food prices in U.S. supermarkets [6][9] Group 3 - The U.S. tariff policy is causing a global chain reaction, with the EU and Japan considering countermeasures, and the uncertainty in international trade rules is leading to a decline in global investment and trade volumes [6][7] - Developing countries, particularly those reliant on steel and aluminum imports, are facing increased cost pressures, while African agricultural nations are losing market share due to increased U.S. agricultural exports [6][9] - The international community is showing a clear trend of division, with many countries refusing to take sides in the U.S.-China conflict, and multilateral cooperation mechanisms are gaining importance as a counter to unilateralism [7][9] Group 4 - China is positioning itself as a responsible global player, with significant increases in investment in ASEAN countries and cross-border e-commerce with Vietnam, indicating resilience in supply chains despite external pressures [9] - The U.S. tariff strategy is seen as an attempt to restructure the global economic order, but data suggests that this approach is leading to a "lose-lose" situation for all parties involved [9] - The future of the global economy hinges on whether unilateralism will undermine globalization or if cooperation can be fostered to create a more resilient governance system [9]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong is leveraging its position as China's largest foreign trade province and its technological strength to stabilize the domestic economy amidst global supply chain restructuring, focusing on high-quality development through strategic initiatives and industrial upgrades [1][6]. Group 1: Foreign Trade Resilience - Guangdong's foreign trade grew by 4.9% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, outperforming the national average by 2.9 percentage points [1]. - The province's import and export growth rebounded monthly, with January seeing a decline of 3.7%, followed by increases of 3.1% and 14% in February and March, respectively [1]. - Guangdong contributed 65.2% of the national growth in foreign trade during the first quarter, achieving record highs in import and export volumes [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The "Five External Linkages" strategy has been implemented to enhance foreign trade resilience through dual efforts in foreign trade and investment, as well as collaboration in outsourcing and foreign economic activities [1]. - Guangdong organized 119 trade delegations and engaged over 2,300 enterprises to explore new market opportunities in regions such as the Belt and Road Initiative countries and RCEP member states [2]. - The "Cross-border E-commerce Hundred County Tour" initiative connected over a thousand county-level enterprises with e-commerce platforms, injecting digital momentum into the local economy [2]. Group 3: Quality Improvement in Foreign Trade - The recent IEAE Vietnam International Consumer Electronics and Home Appliances Exhibition attracted 271 Guangdong enterprises, showcasing the province's commitment to quality improvement in foreign trade [3]. - Legal consultation services were provided at the exhibition to support enterprises in navigating international market rules, indicating a shift from merely exporting products to ensuring compliance and support [3]. - Policies introduced at the "Yiqi Xing" cross-border e-commerce policy briefing aimed to assist traditional jewelry enterprises in their transition to cross-border e-commerce [3]. Group 4: Technological Empowerment - Guangdong's high-quality development is driven by the deep integration of technology and industry, with initiatives like the first nationwide all-space, all-factor unmanned system demonstration in Nansha [4]. - AI-driven companies like Guangzhou Taidong Technology are pioneering the application of generative AI in cross-border e-commerce, significantly reducing production costs and time for advertising materials [4]. - The robotics sector in Guangdong is experiencing explosive growth, with companies reporting a 200% increase in order volume in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year [5]. Group 5: Institutional and Industrial Upgrades - Guangdong is enhancing its role in the national economy through institutional openness and industrial upgrades, establishing trade promotion and supply chain cooperation mechanisms with ASEAN [5]. - The province plans to create a "Yue Chain ASEAN" brand to boost international trade and investment, along with establishing trade and investment service centers in several ASEAN countries [5]. - The ongoing initiatives are expected to elevate Guangdong's position in the global value chain, contributing significantly to the province's economic strength [6].

多方协同助力 今年以来，我国内外贸制度规则持续融合，重点领域实现率先发展，支持政策不断完善，内销环境持续 优化，外贸企业拓内销取得重要进展，一体化经营能力明显提高。专家表示，下一步，应进一步聚焦政 策执行协同，推动重点领域深化改革，持续推进内外贸一体化发展。 化挑战为机遇 不久前，"外贸优品中华行"活动启动，推出一系列务实举措，培育内外贸一体化综合服务平台、线下组 织外贸优品进商超、线上引导电商平台设立相关专区、把更多外贸优品纳入"以旧换新"政策支持范围 等，帮助企业打通出口产品内销堵点，实现国内国际两个市场协调发展、顺畅切换、相互促进。 商务部研究院流通与消费研究所研究员关利欣表示，外贸企业拓内销迎来发展机遇。我国庞大国内市场 优势明显，消费市场潜力持续释放，为企业提供了广阔的创新发展空间；外贸企业生产制造的商品品类 丰富、品质较高，能够满足国内消费者不断升级的个性化、品质化需求；政策对于内外贸一体化发展的 支持力度加大，鼓励外贸企业积极开拓国内市场。 溢达集团曾是一家超大型外贸纺织服装企业，高峰时，年出口衬衫超1亿件。近年来，面对复杂多变的 国际贸易环境，公司快速变阵转型，孵化发展零售男装品牌，转战国内市 ...

Strategy - The report anticipates a market style shift towards defensive and undervalued sectors, with high scores for coal, utilities, banking, non-bank financials, construction decoration, and oil and petrochemicals, suggesting these industries may be worth investors' attention [1] Market Overview - In the week ending May 31, 2025, major asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq index leading in gains, while the A-share broad index mostly declined, with the CSI 500 showing the highest increase [2] Quantitative Analysis - As of May 30, 2025, the proportion of rising stocks in the CSI 300 increased month-on-month, indicating a market sentiment improvement, although momentum indicators suggest a cautious outlook for the near term [3] Bond Market - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.67% by the end of May 2025, reflecting investor concerns about liquidity, but the report suggests that there is no need for excessive worry regarding the funding environment [4] - As of May 31, 2025, the total outstanding credit bonds in China reached 29.69 trillion yuan, with a significant month-on-month decrease in issuance [5] Automotive Industry - The automotive market remained stable in May, with new energy vehicle manufacturers expected to lead in intelligent driving innovations, despite short-term price wars affecting market sentiment [7] Real Estate Industry - In May, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies increased by 3% month-on-month, although the cumulative sales from January to May showed an 8% year-on-year decline [8] Machinery Industry - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery, with a focus on humanoid robotics and related technologies, suggesting potential investment opportunities in companies like Zoomlion and SANY Heavy Industry [9] Communication Sector - The report highlights the growth potential for companies focused on motor drive control, with profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 being raised significantly, indicating a positive long-term outlook [10] Consumer Goods Sector - The report discusses the transformation of a beauty company into a multi-brand, multi-channel group, projecting significant profit growth over the next few years, supported by strong performance on social media platforms [11] Home Appliances Sector - The company maintains its leading position in the lighting industry, although profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards due to market competition and uncertainties in the real estate sector [12]

Core Insights - Ganzhou City in Jiangxi Province is focusing on technological innovation and has implemented the "7510" action plan to enhance its manufacturing industry, resulting in the growth of several key industrial clusters [1][29] - The city's GDP is projected to reach 4940.47 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.4%, driven by advancements in various sectors [2] - The industrial sector in Ganzhou has developed a comprehensive system, with over 3087 large-scale industrial enterprises, and is experiencing significant growth in both light and heavy industries [4] Economic Overview - Ganzhou's GDP for 2024 is estimated at 4940.47 billion yuan, with a 5.4% increase from the previous year [2] - The primary, secondary, and tertiary industries contribute 488.95 billion yuan, 1807.49 billion yuan, and 2644.03 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 3.8%, 7.6%, and 4.1% [2] - The per capita GDP is projected to be 55048 yuan, reflecting a 5.6% increase [2] Industrial Development - The total industrial output value in Ganzhou is expected to reach 1507.52 billion yuan in 2024, marking an 8.4% increase [4] - The growth rates for light and heavy industries are 3.8% and 11.4% respectively, indicating a robust industrial performance [4] - High-tech manufacturing is experiencing a remarkable growth rate of 24.6%, significantly outpacing the overall industrial growth [8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Ganzhou is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2024, with private investment increasing by 11.0% [6] - Investment in the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries is expected to grow by 15.6%, 8.0%, and 4.3% respectively [6] - Industrial investment is anticipated to rise by 7.8%, while infrastructure investment will see a 3.2% increase [6] Industrial Clusters - Ganzhou is developing the "1+5+N" industrial cluster strategy, focusing on high-end industries and technological advancements [10] - The city aims to enhance traditional industries such as textiles and furniture while fostering new strategic industries like new materials and renewable energy [10] - The modern furniture industry is a key focus, with plans to achieve over 500 billion yuan in revenue by 2026 [19] Key Industries - The modern furniture industry in Ganzhou, particularly in Nankang, is a leading sector with a total revenue of 2849.62 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 4.96% growth [21] - The textile and apparel industry is also significant, with revenues of 203.8 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 5.1% increase [23] - The city has established itself as a hub for various industries, including electronics, new energy, and pharmaceuticals, with numerous enterprises contributing to its economic landscape [15][19]