大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 生猪日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | | 2025/10/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 11.64 | 11.43 | 0.21 | 山西 | （-100） | 11.11 | 10.90 | 0.21 | | 湖北（0） | 11.07 | 11.03 | 0.04 | | 辽 宁 | 11.54 | 11.40 | 0.14 | | 安徽（200） | 11.79 | 11.48 | 0.31 | | 吉林（-300） | 11.51 | 11.40 | 0.11 | | 湖南（100） | 10.76 | 10. ...

Core Insights - The national pig-to-grain price ratio for the third week of October is 5.22, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 4.40% [1] - The national pig feed price ratio stands at 4.56, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.00% [1] - Current projections indicate that the average profit per pig in the future fattening model will be -281.88 yuan based on current prices and costs [1] - The average price of live pigs continues to decline week-on-week, driven by high supply and weak downstream demand [1] - Slaughter enterprises are experiencing a decrease in slaughter volume, contributing to the oversupply situation that is pressuring pig prices downward [1]

Core Points - Inner Mongolia Mingquan Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. successfully obtained 5 million yuan financing through the "Central Bank Credit Pass," marking the first successful implementation of this financing service in Inner Mongolia [1] - The "Central Bank Credit Pass" is a credit market service platform established by the People's Bank of China, aimed at facilitating financing connections and policy transmission, enhancing the precision and directness of credit policy transmission [1] - The financing was crucial for the company, which specializes in dairy cattle breeding, as it faced difficulties in cash flow and required immediate financial support [1] Financing Process - The People's Bank of China Inner Mongolia Branch assigned personnel to assist the company in registering for the "Central Bank Credit Pass" and successfully submitted the financing application [1] - After the application was submitted online, the Bank of Communications Baotou Branch quickly responded by matching the company with a tailored breeding loan product and increased the credit limit through third-party guarantees [1] - The entire process from application to funding took only 2 days, demonstrating high efficiency in bank-enterprise connections and providing a practical example for promoting the "Central Bank Credit Pass" financing service across the region [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall price of live pigs has shifted downwards, and although there is short - term support, the possibility of a significant rebound is small, and prices remain suppressed in the short term [5] - Corn prices are suppressed by seasonal supply pressure, and the futures market is in short - term bottom - range oscillation [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Futures: The LH2601 contract of live pig futures closed at 11,670 yuan/ton last week, down 4.46% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - Spot: The national average market price of external ternary live pigs was 11.27 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg [5] - Profit: As of October 17, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 244.7 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 92.55 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets was - 375.29 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 74.25 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 4.95, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 [5] - Market trend: The national live pig spot market first declined and then rose last week. Although there is support from secondary fattening and farmers' resistance to low prices, the supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand from slaughterhouses has not increased, so prices remain under pressure [5] Corn - Futures: The C2601 contract of corn futures first declined and then rose last week, closing at 2,117 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous week's settlement price [6] - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,263.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40.98 yuan/ton. Prices at various ports also showed a downward trend [6] - Industrial consumption: From October 9 to October 15, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 122.31 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 3.04 million tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises and the output of corn starch increased, with the weekly operating rate rising to 56.74%. The operating rate of the DDGS industry decreased to 53.19%, and the output decreased by 3.22% [7] - Inventory: As of October 15, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.462 billion tons, an increase of 5.48%. As of October 17, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 820,000 tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 387,000 tons [7] - Market trend: The national corn spot market continued to decline last week. In the Northeast production area, the market price stabilized due to the start of reserve grain rotation purchases in some areas; in North China, the purchase price was weak. With the new - season corn entering the concentrated harvest stage, although there is demand for enterprise replenishment, prices are still suppressed [8]

Economic Growth - China's GDP for the first three quarters of the year grew by 5.2% year-on-year, demonstrating resilience and vitality in economic operations [1][3] - The GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3 [3] Industrial Production - The industrial production saw a significant increase, with the value-added of large-scale industries growing by 6.2% year-on-year [5] - Manufacturing sector growth was recorded at 6.8%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.7% and 9.6% respectively [5] - Notable increases in production included 3D printing equipment (40.5%), industrial robots (29.8%), and new energy vehicles (29.7%) [5] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,658.77 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [8] - Sales of essential and some upgraded consumer goods showed strong growth, with significant increases in home appliances (25.3%), furniture (21.3%), communication devices (20.5%), and cultural office supplies (19.9%) [8] - Service retail sales also grew by 5.2% year-on-year [8] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 4.0% year-on-year, with high-tech industries such as information services (33.1%), aerospace equipment (20.6%), and computer equipment (7.4%) showing robust investment growth [9] - Agricultural production remained stable, with the value-added of agriculture (planting) increasing by 3.6% [10] Service Sector - The service sector's value-added grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with modern services performing well [10] - Specific growth in information transmission, software, and IT services was recorded at 11.2%, while leasing and business services grew by 9.2% [10]

甘肃张掖市肃南县马蹄乡乡长乔进东：我们的干部记录下牧民借牧的精确位置，一旦牧民家羊群出 现问题，我们就可以赶到地点，及时提供服务。 目前，甘肃、青海两省正共同开发借牧专用小程序，让数据代替牧民跑路，让未来借牧更方便、更 顺畅。 甘肃省农业农村厅畜牧业管理处处长杨东贵：通过小程序备案，青海的畜牧兽医部门就知道谁要借 牧，然后提前进行动物免疫，就把信息推送到借牧地。我们相关的主管部门点进去就可以看清楚了。 这几天，在甘肃张掖市民乐县的国道227线上，运送牛羊的货车明显多了起来。来自青海海北藏族 自治州门源回族自治县的牧民马金贵拉了400只羊，计划前往河西走廊借牧。 马金贵：今年是我第五年到张掖借牧，去年拉来了300多只羊，下了300多只羊羔，今年多拉来了一 些羊，想着能多接生点羊羔。 近年来，随着跨省借牧规模逐渐扩大，甘肃、青海两省目前已构建起省市县"三级联动"的管理服务 体系。今年，甘肃、青海还明确协同建立免疫互信、检测结果互认机制，改变过去牧民在青海检疫之 后，到借牧地还需要继续抽检等问题。 央广网北京10月20日消息（记者安文剑）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道， 今年，预计有来自甘肃、青海 ...

Core Insights - The overall fixed asset investment in China for the first three quarters of the year reached 371.535 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.5%, primarily influenced by the real estate sector [1] - Excluding real estate development investment, project investment increased by 3.0% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Industrial Investment - Industrial investment grew by 6.4% year-on-year, contributing 2.1 percentage points to total investment growth [1] - Mining investment increased by 3.7%, while manufacturing investment rose by 4.0%, with consumer goods manufacturing up by 6.3% and equipment manufacturing up by 1.6% [1] - Investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply surged by 15.3%, contributing 1.1 percentage points to total investment growth, with renewable energy investments (solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower) collectively growing by 13.9% [1] Group 2: Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment saw a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, contributing 0.2 percentage points to total investment growth [1] - Private investment in infrastructure grew by 7.0%, accounting for 20.0% of total infrastructure investment, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous year [1] - Notable growth in private investment was observed in water management (42.4%) and air transport (24.4%) [1] Group 3: Equipment Investment - Equipment purchase investment maintained a growth rate of over 10%, with a year-on-year increase of 14.0%, contributing 2.0 percentage points to total investment growth [2] - This segment accounted for 16.6% of total investment, an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Group 4: High-Tech Service Investment - Investment in high-tech services grew by 6.1% year-on-year, representing 5.3% of total service investment, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year [3] - Information service investment experienced significant growth of 33.1% [3] Group 5: Agricultural and Related Investment - Investment in the primary industry increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with forestry investment growing by 40.0% and fishery investment by 12.9% [4] - The food processing industry saw a 14.3% increase in investment, while food manufacturing grew by 10.8% [4] - Investment in electricity and heat production and supply rose by 17.9% [4] Future Outlook - The focus will be on implementing new policy financial tools to accelerate project construction and stimulate private investment in new productivity, emerging services, and new infrastructure [4]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural economy in China is showing a stable and positive development trend, with expectations for a good harvest in the current year despite challenges from natural disasters [1][2]. Group 1: Grain Production - Summer grain production has remained stable, with a total output of 2,994.8 million jin, a slight decrease of 3.1 million jin or 0.1% year-on-year [2]. - Early rice production has increased to 570.3 million jin, up by 6.8 million jin or 1.2% compared to the previous year [2]. - The combined increase in summer grain and early rice production is 3.7 million jin, laying a solid foundation for a good harvest for the year [2]. Group 2: Livestock Production - The total meat production from pigs, cattle, sheep, and poultry reached 73.12 million tons, an increase of 2.68 million tons or 3.8% year-on-year [3]. - The number of pigs slaughtered increased to 52.992 million heads, up by 962,000 heads or 1.8%, marking a growth for three consecutive quarters [3]. - The production of pork reached 43.68 million tons, an increase of 128,000 tons or 3.0% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Market Supply and Prices - The producer prices of agricultural products decreased by 3.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters [5]. - Grain prices saw a decline, with wheat down by 2.5%, rice down by 1.6%, and corn down by 5.3% [5]. - Despite the overall price decline, some livestock prices have shown an upward trend, with live cattle prices increasing for three consecutive months [5].

Group 1 - The overall grain production is stable, with expectations for another bumper harvest in the year, supported by stable summer grain and increased early rice production [2][4] - Summer grain production reached 299.48 billion jin, slightly down by 0.1% year-on-year, while early rice production increased to 57.03 billion jin, up by 1.2% [2] - The autumn grain planting area has increased, and favorable weather conditions in most agricultural regions have contributed to a positive outlook for autumn grain production [2][3] Group 2 - Livestock production remains stable, with total meat production reaching 73.12 million tons, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year [3][4] - The number of pigs slaughtered increased to 52.992 million heads, up by 1.8%, with pork production at 4.368 million tons, also up by 3.0% [3] - Cattle and poultry production showed growth, with beef production increasing by 3.3% and poultry meat production rising by 7.2% [4] Group 3 - The agricultural product market is well-supplied, with producer prices down by 3.6% year-on-year [5] - Grain prices have generally decreased, with specific declines in wheat (2.5%), rice (1.6%), and corn (5.3%), while fruit prices saw a slight increase of 1.1% [5] - Overall, the agricultural market prices remained stable, with fluctuations in specific categories such as vegetables and livestock [5]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Sichuan decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, while the month-on-month change stabilized after a decline [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, reaching the highest point since February of this year [1] - Seasonal factors led to significant month-on-month price increases for fresh vegetables (7.4%), fresh fruits (1.2%), and eggs (3.5%) [1] Group 2: Pork and Livestock Industry - Pork prices continued to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year drop of 20.6% [1] - The president of the Sichuan Livestock Association's Pig Industry Committee indicated that despite signals to reduce overproduction since July, the industry will remain in a "bottoming phase" due to a 10-month transmission cycle for capacity reduction and the absence of peak seasonal consumption [1] Group 3: Service Prices and Tourism - In September, tourism-related service prices reached a low point after the summer and before the National Day holiday, with significant month-on-month decreases in airfares (15.8%), hotel accommodations (5.5%), and travel agency fees (9.1%) [1] Group 4: Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In September, the Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a notable narrowing of the year-on-year decline to 2.0%, which is a reduction of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, while month-on-month it increased by 0.4% [2] - The automotive manufacturing sector experienced a month-on-month price increase of 0.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% [2] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to visible results in capacity management, with some industries like steel and photovoltaics experiencing a narrowing of year-on-year price declines [2]