Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core View No core view information is provided in the content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Market**: On October 27, the BR12 main - contract price was 10,995, down 125 from the previous day and 45 from the previous week. The open interest was 49,618, a decrease of 17,076 from the previous day and 23,190 from the previous week. The trading volume was 131,980, an increase of 31,320 from the previous day and 8,289 from the previous week. The warehouse receipt quantity was 8,920, unchanged from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week. The long - short ratio was 27.81, down 10 from the previous day and 14 from the previous week [4]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - variety**: The butadiene rubber basis was 75, up 75 from the previous day and down 5 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene rubber basis was 455, up 25 from the previous day and 45 from the previous week. The 12 - 01 spread was 25, unchanged from the previous day and up 5 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was - 10, down 15 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4,385, up 170 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1,545, up 160 from the previous day and 220 from the previous week [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 11,050, down 50 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10,950, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,200, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,475, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 512, up 169 from the previous day and 384 from the previous week. The import profit was - 1,326, down 48 from the previous day and 51 from the previous week. The export profit was 1,845, up 42 from the previous day and 44 from the previous week [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 8,175, down 215 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 8,100, down 250 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,400, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 960, unchanged from the previous day and down 40 from the previous week [4]. - **Profit**: The carbon - four extraction profit data is incomplete. The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 504, down 250 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week. The import profit was 224, down 249 from the previous day and 104 from the previous week. The export profit data is incomplete. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 988, unchanged from the previous day and up 125 from the previous week. The ABS production profit data is incomplete. The SBS production profit was 315, up 30 from the previous day and down 160 from the previous week [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port shows a de - stocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses reducing inventory, and the de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrowing. Overseas standard rubber arrivals continue to decline, and the bonded warehouse in Qingdao shows a slight de - stocking. The arrival and warehousing of mixed rubber increase as expected, but the overall de - stocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse narrows. The demand side is relatively stable, with the production enthusiasm of semi - steel tire enterprises expected to remain high, and the production of all - steel tire enterprises expected to be stable. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15600 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is not given a specific short - term forecast range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15380 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12540 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 143704 lots, down 1486 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 51038 lots, down 8525 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 25314 lots, down 525 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10527 lots, down 57 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 123310 tons, down 710 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 43849 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14750 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15200 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11400 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11200 yuan/ton, up 0 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 630 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13228 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 688 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 58.89 Thai baht/kg, up 1.02 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 54.89 Thai baht/kg, up 0.33 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.4 Thai baht/kg, up 1.1 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 182.4 US dollars/ton, down 38.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51 US dollars/ton, down 0.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.26 million tons, up 0.95 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 31.75 million tons, up 4.91 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.58%, up 1.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.95 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end is 40.34 days, up 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end is 45.26 days, up 0.09 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.6%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.09%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 21.09%, down 0.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 21.08%, down 0.82 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (October 24 - 30, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has an enhanced impact on rubber tapping; the red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in southern Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a slightly weakened impact on rubber tapping. In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.19, and the El Niño phenomenon weakened month - on - month. As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.20%. The inventory in the bonded area was 68,700 tons, a decline of 1.29%; the inventory in general trade was 363,500 tons, a decline of 1.18%. As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report date: October 27, 2025 [3] - Report team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures Market - BR主力合约(12) price on October 24: 11120, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 280 [4] - Open interest on October 24: 66694, a daily decrease of 3178 and a weekly decrease of 8134 [4] - Trading volume on October 24: 100660, a daily increase of 1262 and a weekly decrease of 1290 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on October 24: 8920, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 280 [4] - Long - short ratio on October 24: 37.38, a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly decrease of 6 [4] - Basis of cis - butadiene on October 24: - 20, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 230 [4] - Basis of styrene - butadiene on October 24: 430, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 180 [4] - Spread between 12 - 01 contracts on October 24: 25, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 10 [4] - Spread between 01 - 02 contracts on October 24: 5, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 5 [4] - Spread between RU - BR on October 24: 4215, a daily increase of 90 and a weekly increase of 245 [4] - Spread between NR - BR on October 24: 1385, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 45 [4] Spot Market - Shandong market price on October 24: 11100, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4] - Transfar market price on October 24: 10950, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on October 24: 11200, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on October 24: 1475, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on October 24: 1700, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] - Spot processing profit on October 24: 342, a daily increase of 61 and a weekly increase of 290 [4] - Import profit on October 24: - 1278, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 47 [4] - Export profit on October 24: 1803, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 41 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot Market - Shandong market price on October 24: 8390, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly decrease of 235 [4] - Jiangsu market price on October 24: 8350, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on October 24: 8400, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 200 [4] - CFR China price on October 24: 960, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 50 [4] Profit - Carbon four extraction profit: Data after October 22 is N/A [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on October 24: - 254, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4] - Import profit on October 24: 473, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly increase of 250 [4] - Export profit on October 24: - 968, a daily decrease of 91 and a weekly decrease of 473 [4] Group 4: Other Product Profits - Styrene - butadiene production profit on October 24: 988, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 238 [4] - ABS production profit: Data after October 22 is N/A [4] - SBS production profit on October 24: 585, a daily increase of 140 and a weekly decrease of 175 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber are under pressure, with supply growth outpacing demand. However, the overall static valuation of cis - butadiene rubber is currently moderately low, and there are many important macro - events recently, so the price is supported by macro - sentiment [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (11 contract), the daily closing price was 11,120 yuan/ton (up 70 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 99,398 lots (up 19,944 lots), the open interest was 69,872 lots (down 2,100 lots), and the trading volume was 5.52049 billion yuan (up 1.14297 billion yuan) [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene - futures main contract was - 20 yuan (down 70 yuan from the previous day), and the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 was 60 yuan (down 10 yuan) [1] - **Spot Market**: The prices of cis - butadiene in North China, East China, South China, and Shandong remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) also remained unchanged. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 8,450 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene operating rate was 71.304% (unchanged), the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene was 11,358 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the cis - butadiene profit was - 158 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] 2. Industry News - As of October 22, 2025, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 24,600 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous period. Ship arrivals were limited, downstream raw material inventories were normally consumed, and the short - term tradable volume was limited, leading to the decline in port inventory. Merchants expect sufficient imports in October [2] - As of October 22, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 33,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. The spot market was driven by the expectation of reduced trade frictions and the strengthening of natural rubber. The mainstream supply price rebounded, and low - price transactions improved. However, there were more overhauls of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and some sample production enterprises stocked up, resulting in an increase in the overall inventory of sample production enterprises and a decrease in the inventory of sample trading enterprises [2][3]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [3] Key Points BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the BR12 main contract on October 22 was 11,050, up 10 from the previous day and down 85 from the previous week [4]. - The open interest was 71,972, down 836 from the previous day and up 53,561 from the previous week [4]. - The trading volume was 79,454, down 44,237 from the previous day and up 2,550 from the previous week [4]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 8,920, up 300 from the previous day and up 170 from the previous week [4]. - The long - short ratio was 40.34, down 2 from the previous day and up 30 from the previous week [4]. Basis, Spread and Inter - Variety Spread - The basis between BR12 and BR01 was 25, up 5 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4]. - The spread between BR01 and BR02 was 10, down 5 from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week [4]. - The spread between RU - BR was 4,100, down 10 from the previous day and up 335 from the previous week [4]. - The spread between NR - BR was 1,300, down 25 from the previous day and up 120 from the previous week [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 11,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [4]. - The Transfar market price was 10,950, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,200, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,475, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 from the previous week [4]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4]. Profit - The spot processing profit was 230, up 102 from the previous day and up 203 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit was - 1,277, down 2 from the previous day and up 255 from the previous week [4]. - The export profit was 1,803, up 2 from the previous day and down 47 from the previous week [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 8,500, down 100 from the previous day and down 150 from the previous week [4]. - The Jiangsu market price was 8,500, down 25 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,600, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4]. - The CFR China price was 975, down 35 from the previous week [4]. Profit - The carbon - four extraction profit was 1,885 (data for October 20) [4]. - The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 104, down 25 from the previous day and up 20 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit was 203 (data for October 22), up 234 from the previous week [4]. - The export profit was - 921, down 48 from the previous day and down 386 from the previous week [4]. Production Profit of Related Products - The butadiene - styrene production profit was 863, unchanged from the previous day and up 138 from the previous week [4]. - The ABS production profit was - 33 (data for October 20) [4]. - The SBS production profit was 175, down 300 from the previous day and down 810 from the previous week [4].

Core Viewpoint - India has imposed a five-year anti-dumping tax on nitrile rubber from multiple countries, including China, which poses significant challenges for China's nitrile rubber industry, necessitating structural adjustments and technological innovation for sustainable development [1] Market Conditions - The nitrile rubber market has been sluggish in 2023, with the third quarter showing a typical "top and bottom" horizontal fluctuation pattern, where prices remained within a narrow range of 300 yuan per ton [2] - Domestic production saw a significant decrease of approximately 17.7% in the third quarter due to maintenance by major producers, creating a solid price floor [2] - Demand has weakened, with downstream industries operating at low capacity due to high temperatures and inventory issues, leading to disappointing recovery during the traditional peak season [2] - The cost support for nitrile rubber has weakened, with the price of its main raw material, butadiene, remaining below 10,000 yuan per ton, limiting price increase drivers [2] Future Outlook - The domestic market is expected to weaken further, with a projected 20% increase in production in the fourth quarter, while downstream demand may only grow by about 7% [3] - The supply-demand imbalance, coupled with declining raw material prices, indicates significant downward pressure on domestic nitrile rubber prices [3] Impact of Indian Anti-Dumping Tax - India has become the largest export destination for Chinese nitrile rubber, accounting for 38.5% of total exports in the first eight months of the year [4] - The imposition of a 291 USD anti-dumping tax will diminish China's price competitiveness, leading to a potential reduction in export volumes to India [4] - The shift of some export goods to the domestic market will intensify competition, risking a price war and further compressing profit margins [4] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The industry faces a core challenge of an oversupply of low-end products, with high-performance products still reliant on imports [5] - Recent government policies aim to support the development of specialty rubber products, encouraging companies to increase R&D investments and improve product performance [5] - Companies are advised to explore new markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, while also targeting customers in Europe and America to enhance brand image and technical standards [6] - Long-term strategies may include local production in target markets to bypass trade barriers and transition from "product output" to "capacity output" [6]

Core Viewpoint - India has imposed a five-year anti-dumping tax on nitrile rubber from multiple countries, including China, which poses significant challenges for China's nitrile rubber industry, necessitating structural adjustments and technological innovation for sustainable development [1] Market Conditions - The nitrile rubber market has been sluggish in 2023, with the third quarter showing a typical "top and bottom" horizontal fluctuation pattern, where prices were confined within a narrow range of 300 yuan per ton [2] - Domestic production saw a significant decrease of approximately 17.7% in the third quarter due to maintenance by major producers, creating a solid price floor [2] - Demand has weakened, with downstream industries operating at low capacity due to high temperatures and inventory issues, leading to disappointing recovery during the traditional peak season [2] - The cost support for nitrile rubber has diminished, as the price of its main raw material, butadiene, remained below 10,000 yuan per ton, limiting upward price momentum [2] Future Outlook - The domestic market fundamentals are expected to weaken further, with a projected 20% increase in production in the fourth quarter, while downstream demand may only grow by about 7% [3] - The supply-demand imbalance, coupled with declining raw material prices, indicates significant downward pressure on domestic nitrile rubber prices [3] Impact of Indian Anti-Dumping Tax - India has become the largest export destination for Chinese nitrile rubber, accounting for 38.5% of total exports in the first eight months of the year [4] - The imposition of a 291 USD anti-dumping tax will erode China's competitive pricing advantage, leading to a potential reduction in export volumes to India [4] - The shift of some export products to the domestic market will intensify competition, risking price wars and further compressing profit margins [4] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The Chinese nitrile rubber industry faces a core issue of an oversupply of low-end products, with high-performance products still reliant on imports [5] - Recent government initiatives aim to support the development of specialty rubber products, encouraging companies to increase R&D investments and improve product performance [5] - Companies are advised to explore new markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, while also targeting customers in Europe and America to enhance brand image and technical standards [6] - There is an urgent need for companies to implement cost-reduction strategies and consider local production options in target markets to mitigate the impact of trade barriers [6]

"该标准实施后，将有效规范钕系丁二烯橡胶的工业化生产、质量检验与应用评价全环节，推动国产产 品质量稳定性进一步提升，助力我国高端合成橡胶在国内外市场的份额持续扩大。"独山子石化公司规 划和科技信息部副经理周豪说。 据悉，独山子石化公司长期致力于国际、国家、行业及团体标准的制修订工作，截至目前累计主导或参 与发布国际标准3项、国家标准37项、行业标准11项、团体及地方标准31项。 中化新网讯 近日从中国石油独山子石化公司传来消息，该公司主导制定的国家标准《钕系丁二烯橡 胶》(GB/T46327—2025)由国家标准化管理委员会于10月5日正式发布，将于2026年5月1日起正式实施。 钕系丁二烯橡胶是生产高性能绿色轮胎的核心原料，具有高顺式结构与优异线性链特征，能提升产品的 耐磨性、抗疲劳性及低滚动阻力等。随着新能源汽车市场进入爆发式增长阶段，绿色轮胎对低滚阻材料 的需求持续增长，钕系丁二烯橡胶在轮胎胎面胶中的应用占比逐步提升。 作为国内最早实现钕系丁二烯橡胶工业化生产的企业，独山子石化公司依托专用生产装置及稀土系橡胶 研发平台，在材料顺式结构控制、分子量分布调控等关键核心技术上领先。此次标准的发布，填补了国 内 ...

智通财经APP讯，中策橡胶(603049.SH)发布2025年三季度报告，该公司前三季度营业收入为336.83亿 元，同比增长14.98%。归属于上市公司股东的净利润为35.13亿元，同比增长9.30%。归属于上市公司股 东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为34.31亿元，同比增长23.02%。基本每股收益为4.25元。 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a third-quarter revenue of 11.828 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.77% [2] - The net profit for the third quarter was 1.191 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 76.56% [2] - For the first three quarters, the total revenue reached 33.683 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.98% [2] - The net profit for the first three quarters was 3.513 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.30% [2] Financial Performance - Third-quarter revenue: 11.828 billion yuan, up 9.77% year-on-year [2] - Third-quarter net profit: 1.191 billion yuan, up 76.56% year-on-year [2] - Year-to-date revenue (first three quarters): 33.683 billion yuan, up 14.98% year-on-year [2] - Year-to-date net profit (first three quarters): 3.513 billion yuan, up 9.30% year-on-year [2]