Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current hype about mining license issues may be overheated. The market has two logics: a "step - by - step rise chain" when macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances occur, and a "negative feedback cycle" during the price - down cycle. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: prices will rise in Q3 and fall in Q4 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 90,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 73.5% [2]. - **Contract Performance**: For the lithium carbonate main contract, the closing price dropped from 87,540 to 80,980 yuan/ton (-7.49% day - on - day, -4.84% week - on - week), the trading volume increased from 734,929 to 838,879 hands (14.14% day - on - day, -32.64% week - on - week), and the open interest decreased from 414,097 to 395,102 hands (-4.59% day - on - day, 0.62% week - on - week). Similar trends were seen in the LC2601 contract [9]. - **Month - spread Changes**: The LC11 - 12 month - spread decreased from 120 to 100 (-17% day - on - day, -69% week - on - week), and the LC11 - 01 month - spread decreased from 540 to 340 (-37% day - on - day, -45% week - on - week) [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, showed different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of lithium mica (Li2O:2 - 2.5%) was 2,125 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (-2.75% day - on - day, 4.68% week - on - week) [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide**: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide had weekly increases. For instance, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400 yuan/ton, up 4,600 yuan (5.84% week - on - week) [18]. - **Downstream Products**: The average daily prices of downstream products like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes were mostly stable with no daily changes [23][24]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The brand - based basis quotes of lithium carbonate from different companies, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., were mostly stable. The four - material comprehensive basis quote for LC2507 was - 250 yuan [26]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased from 23,615 to 24,045, with changes in different warehouses and sub - warehouses [29][30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production and Delivery Profits**: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate are presented through trend charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [32].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market experienced a significant drop due to a combination of rumors and expectations of production resumption, with the main contract closing at 80,980 yuan/ton, marking an 8% decline [2][4]. Market Reactions - On August 20, lithium carbonate opened sharply lower and closed with all contracts hitting the limit down, influenced by the announcement from Jiangte Electric that its subsidiary Yichun Yinli would resume production soon [2][4]. - The market was also affected by various rumors, including the transportation of Australian lithium concentrate to China and potential sanctions on lithium from the U.S., leading to a widespread decline in prices [2][4]. Production and Supply Dynamics - Yichun Yinli's resumption of production follows a comprehensive equipment overhaul, with the company previously producing 1,300 tons per month before the shutdown [4]. - Despite the rumors, analysts noted that the actual impact on the market was limited, as the basic supply-demand dynamics remained stable, with no significant deterioration observed [4][5]. Inventory and Demand Insights - Current lithium concentrate inventories in China are reported to be sufficient, with domestic traders holding 278,000 tons and lithium salt plants maintaining around 300,000 tons [5]. - Recent data indicated a slight decrease in overall inventory levels across the supply chain, suggesting a tight balance in the lithium carbonate market [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the recent price drop may be overdone, with potential upward momentum in lithium prices due to tightening supply and seasonal demand increases [9]. - The market remains cautious, with ongoing concerns about production resumption timelines and regulatory impacts on supply chains, which could lead to further price volatility [9].

金融界8月20日消息 单日暴跌8%，碳酸锂期货各大合约牢牢封住跌停板，A股江特电机旗下的宜春锂矿复 产消息直接干崩碳酸锂期货， 20日开盘，碳酸锂合约全线大幅低开，随后不断走低，在多头资金挣扎了1个小时后，选择放弃抵抗。上 午10点，碳酸锂主力合约被空头摁在跌停板上，大跌8%，报80980元/吨，单日每吨碳酸锂价格大跌超过 7000元，其他月份合约也纷纷跌停。午后一度有资金进场试图撬板反攻，碳酸锂期货一度打开跌停，但是 最终以失败而告终，截至收盘，碳酸锂期货各月合约全线跌停。 此外，A股锂矿板块也逆市下挫，天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、盛新锂能、永兴材料等纷纷下跌。 | | 碳酸锂主连 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lc9999 | | | | | 80980 | 08858 | 振幅 | 5.57% | # 83.897 | | 80980 | | 昨结 | 88020 | 持仓 39.517 | | -7040 -8.009 | 85680 | ਦੇ ਜੋੜ | 82900 | 日增 -1899! | | 相关ETF O | | | | 有色ETF 1.69 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures main contract hit the daily limit down, with a decrease of 8% at the close. The trading volume decreased month - on - month, the spot was at a premium, and the basis strengthened [2]. - Fundamentally, due to domestic mining incidents, the spot price of lithium carbonate raw materials has risen significantly, driving up the lithium ore quotation. Supply may continue to increase as smelters are more active in hedging. Demand has also improved as downstream buyers are more proactive in advance stocking with the approaching peak season. Overall, the lithium carbonate market may see a situation of increasing supply and demand, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level [2]. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 101.57%, a month - on - month increase of 7.764%. The call open interest in the options market has an advantage, and the sentiment in the options market has turned bearish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. - The operation suggestion is to short lightly on rallies and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 80,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,560 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 is - 139,458 lots, an increase of 10,387 lots [2]. - The open interest of the main contract is 395,102 lots, a decrease of 18,995 lots [2]. - The spread between near - and far - month contracts is 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The warehouse receipts of GME are 23,615 lots, an increase of 60 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 83,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 4,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,560 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 980 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars [2]. - The average price of amblygonite is 8,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 415 yuan [2]. - The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate is 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate is 429.65 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons [2]. - The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, a decrease of 4 percentage points [2]. - The monthly production of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, an increase of 4,600 MWh [2]. - The price of lithium manganate is 34,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 55,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan [2]. - The price of lithium cobaltate is 235,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of ternary material (811 type): China is 148,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 130,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, an increase of 1 percentage point [2]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 51%, a decrease of 1 percentage point [2]. - The monthly production of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,243,000 vehicles, a decrease of 25,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly sales of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,262,000 vehicles, a decrease of 67,000 vehicles [2]. - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 44.99%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles is 8,220,000 vehicles, an increase of 2,286,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 225,000 vehicles, an increase of 20,000 vehicles [2]. - The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1,308,000 vehicles, an increase of 600,000 vehicles [2]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 73.17%, an increase of 3.84 percentage points [2]. - The 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 55.24%, an increase of 4.50 percentage points [2]. Option Situation - The total call open interest is 145,340 contracts, a decrease of 2,807 contracts [2]. - The total put open interest is 147,624 contracts, an increase of 8,651 contracts [2]. - The put - call ratio of total open interest is 101.57%, an increase of 7.764 percentage points [2]. - The at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.43%, a decrease of 0.0279 percentage points [2]. Industry News - A national conference on promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones was held in Beijing, emphasizing the need to optimize policies steadily, implement policies to increase consumption, and cultivate new growth points in the consumer market [2]. - Xiaomi Group's total revenue in the second quarter reached 116 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30.5%. The revenue of the "Mobile × AIoT" segment was 94.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, and the revenue of the "Intelligent Electric Vehicles and AI and other innovative businesses" segment was 21.3 billion yuan, both hitting record highs [2]. - Yichun Yinli, a wholly - owned subsidiary of Jiangte Motor, which had suspended production for equipment maintenance, will resume production soon [2]. - Heilongjiang has adjusted its subsidy policy for replacing old consumer goods with new ones. Starting from August 23, subsidies for car replacement are divided into three levels. The subsidy standards for fuel vehicles are 5,000 yuan, 8,000 yuan, and 11,000 yuan respectively, and the subsidy for each level of new energy vehicles is 2,000 yuan more [2].

Core Viewpoint - SQM's core earnings declined in Q2 due to a significant drop in lithium prices, reaching a multi-year low, with adjusted earnings down 28% year-over-year to $307.9 million [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings for SQM fell to $307.9 million, a 28% decrease compared to the same period last year [1] - The company's sales volume in Q2 decreased compared to Q1 due to low market prices [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The lithium industry is facing severe impacts from global oversupply, leading to significant price declines, although recent production cuts in China have contributed to a price rebound [1] - Recent market dynamics suggest that prices in Q3 may be higher than in Q2 [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - SQM expects a 10% increase in sales volume in Chile by 2025 compared to last year [1] - The company has raised its sales forecast for Australia and anticipates a "significant increase" in production in the second half of the year [1] - SQM's international lithium business sales forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to approximately 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent [1] - The joint venture with Kwinana refinery achieved its first commercial production in July, with full capacity expected to reach 50,000 tons of lithium hydroxide by the end of 2026, half of which will belong to SQM [2]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The news of resumption of production and redirection of lithium concentrate transportation eases the market's expectation of supply shortage, leading to a significant decline in lithium carbonate prices [1][4] - Before the results of whether Yichun and salt lake production will be affected by mining permits are determined, market sentiment is greatly influenced by news. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely between 80,000 and 85,000 yuan per ton in the near future [5] Summary by Related Content Company News - Jiangte Motor's subsidiary Yichun Yinli will resume production soon after equipment maintenance, with a lithium carbonate production capacity of 35,000 tons and a monthly output increase of about 2,500 tons [4] - Pilbara redirected a shipment of 36,000 tons of lithium concentrate originally destined for South Korea to China, increasing the arrival of Australian ore in China in September, with the equivalent lithium carbonate volume of about 4,500 tons [4] Market Influence - The increased supply from Yichun Yinli's resumption of production and Pilbara's redirected shipment largely offsets the supply reduction at Ningde Shixiaowo, alleviating the market's supply shortage expectation [4] - The redirection of Pilbara's lithium concentrate reminds the market that price increases will lead to supply growth, and it is necessary to balance the expectation of supply reduction due to the new mineral resources law with the expectation of idle capacity resumption and increased imports [4] Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to the result of Yongxing's safety production license renewal (expiring on September 6), which involves a lithium carbonate production capacity of about 2,000 tons per month [5] - The firm price of lithium ore provides support for lithium carbonate prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by its lithium and civil explosives businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 3.423 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 136 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.87% [1]. - The civil explosives segment generated operating revenue of 1.465 billion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 253 million yuan, reflecting a 2.4% increase [1]. - The lithium business reported operating revenue of 1.764 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The company is a major producer of lithium salt products, particularly battery-grade lithium hydroxide, and has established long-term partnerships with leading global automotive and battery manufacturers [2]. - The civil explosives segment is a leading player in China, with significant production capacity and a strong market presence in regions with high demand [2]. - The company has a competitive advantage in the lithium sector, with 91% of its lithium business revenue coming from top-tier clients [2]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company plans to enhance lithium recovery rates and improve the quality of its lithium concentrate while optimizing production processes to reduce costs [3]. - In the civil explosives sector, the company aims to expand sales in key regions and pursue international development strategies to boost overseas sales [3]. - The company is focused on maintaining its competitive edge through innovation and strategic market expansion [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of Jiangte Electric's subsidiary resuming production has eased concerns about tight lithium carbonate supply, leading to a significant drop in lithium carbonate futures prices, with a daily decline of 8% on August 20 [1][3]. Supply Dynamics - The expectation of supply reduction had previously driven lithium carbonate prices higher, particularly after news of the suspension of lithium mining operations in Yichun by CATL on August 11, which led to a surge in prices [3]. - Jiangte Electric's announcement on August 19 regarding the resumption of production at Yichun Yinli New Energy has shifted market sentiment, causing prices to drop and nearly erase gains made since August 11 [3][4]. - Despite the recent price drop, uncertainties regarding domestic lithium resource supply remain, as stricter government regulations on mining rights compliance could impact future production [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Price Volatility - The short-term volatility in lithium carbonate prices is largely driven by market sentiment and speculative trading rather than fundamental changes in supply and demand [4][5]. - Recent data indicates a scenario of increasing production alongside decreasing inventory levels, which supports bullish expectations for lithium prices [5][6]. Demand Outlook - The upcoming demand peak in September and October is expected to bolster market sentiment, with strong orders in energy storage and power sectors contributing to a positive outlook for demand [6][7]. - The expectation of replenishing inventory in anticipation of rising prices may further support the upward trend in lithium carbonate prices [6][7]. Long-term Perspective - While short-term price fluctuations are influenced by market sentiment, the long-term price movements are expected to revert to fundamental supply-demand dynamics [6]. - The overall market is likely to experience a supply surplus, which may limit the potential for sustained price increases despite temporary bullish sentiment [6][7].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to tighten, and downstream procurement demand has increased during the peak demand season, so the spot price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to rise, and the price center will move up in the short term [1] - Affected by the disturbance of the mining end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly, but the short - term market fluctuates greatly and is easily affected by capital sentiment and news [3] Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 89,500 yuan/ton and closed at 87,540 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.79% compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 734,929 lots, and the open interest was 414,097 lots, compared with 421,106 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was - 2,220 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 23,615 lots, a change of 60 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 84,300 - 87,100 yuan/ton, a change of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 82,700 - 84,100 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,040 US dollars/ton, a change of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - Due to the decline in futures prices, downstream purchasing and price - setting behaviors increased significantly, pushing up the spot price of lithium carbonate [1] Company News - Jiangte Motor's wholly - owned subsidiary, Yichun Yinli New Energy Co., Ltd., which had previously stopped production for equipment maintenance, will resume production soon [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term investors can buy on dips for hedging - No strategies provided for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the recent news of Jiangte Electric's subsidiary resuming production has alleviated concerns about tight lithium carbonate supply, leading to a significant drop in lithium carbonate futures prices [1][3] - As of August 20, all lithium carbonate futures contracts experienced a limit down, with a daily decline of 8%, bringing the main contract price below 81,000 yuan per ton [1][2] - The market sentiment shifted due to the announcement from Jiangte Electric, which stated that its subsidiary Yichun Yinli would resume operations, causing a rapid decline in lithium prices and reversing gains made since August 11 [3][4] Group 2 - The expectation of supply reduction had previously driven lithium carbonate prices higher, particularly after news of the suspension of lithium mining operations in Yichun [3][5] - Despite the recent price drop, analysts believe that the fundamentals supporting a rebound in lithium carbonate prices remain intact, as uncertainties in domestic lithium resource supply persist [5][6] - The upcoming demand peak in September and October is expected to support market expectations for downstream stocking and accelerated replenishment [6][7] Group 3 - Recent data shows that domestic lithium carbonate production reached a new high of approximately 20,000 tons per week as of August 14, indicating a simultaneous increase in production alongside rising prices [4][5] - The market is currently experiencing a situation of increasing production and decreasing inventory, which supports bullish expectations for lithium prices [5][6] - Analysts suggest that while short-term price fluctuations are influenced by market sentiment and capital dynamics, the long-term price movements will ultimately return to supply-demand fundamentals [6][7]