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格隆汇1月8日｜据媒体消息，在监管不确定的情况下，英伟达(NVDA)要求海外客户为其H200 AI芯片 支付全额预付款。英伟达称该芯片订单量已超过200万片，台积电(TSM)已被要求增产。 ...

Group 1 - Concerns about a potential AI bubble are prevalent in investment circles, with 41% of survey respondents believing AI stock prices are speculative and disconnected from fundamentals [2][7] - Nvidia is highlighted as a leading player in the AI industry, with its GPUs in high demand due to the growing need for data center investments, projected to rise from $430 billion in 2024 to $1.1 trillion by 2029 [4][5] - Nvidia's strong financial position, with a net cash of $52.1 billion, positions it well to withstand potential downturns in AI spending, as its industry-leading architectures are expected to remain in demand [5] Group 2 - ASML is identified as a unique investment opportunity, being the sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines essential for high-end microchip fabrication for AI [6] - ASML's partnership with Mistral AI aims to enhance customer offerings by providing faster time to market and improved lithography systems [6]

Coming from an IT background, I have dived into the U.S. stock market seven years ago by managing portfolio of my family. Starting managing real money has been challenging for the first time, but long hours of mastering fundamental analysis of public companies paid off and now I feel very confident in my investment decisions. My hands-on experience shaped deep understanding of risk, reward and the delicate balance between these two variables. Driven by a desire to share my insights and contribute to the inv ...

Coming from an IT background, I have dived into the U.S. stock market seven years ago by managing portfolio of my family. Starting managing real money has been challenging for the first time, but long hours of mastering fundamental analysis of public companies paid off and now I feel very confident in my investment decisions. My hands-on experience shaped deep understanding of risk, reward and the delicate balance between these two variables. Driven by a desire to share my insights and contribute to the inv ...

It's been one of the most eventful CES (Consumer Electronics Show) events in years, thanks in part to the AI boom, which holds tremendous promise in 2026. ...

Core Insights - TSMC's unique business model as a pure-play foundry allows it to focus solely on manufacturing without competing with its customers, making it a preferred partner for major tech firms [1] - The company is increasingly viewed as a critical infrastructure provider in the digital economy, with its earnings growth outweighing geopolitical risks [2] - A revised price target from Goldman Sachs reflects heightened demand for AI infrastructure, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards TSMC as a key player in hardware manufacturing [3] Company Performance - TSMC's stock has risen over 7% at the start of the New Year, reaching above $327, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.65 trillion, solidifying its status as the world's most valuable chip manufacturer [4] - The company has successfully accelerated the timeline for new manufacturing facilities in the U.S., enhancing its global supply chain and solidifying its role in AI hardware production [5] Market Position - TSMC holds over 90% of the global market share for advanced chips (nodes smaller than 7 nanometers), making it the primary choice for high-performance silicon [6] - A significant shift in revenue composition occurred in 2025, with High-Performance Computing (HPC) revenue surpassing smartphone revenue for the first time [7] Technological Advancements - TSMC's successful rollout of 2-nanometer technology marks a significant engineering advancement, with production yields exceeding expectations [8][10] - The company has addressed supply chain bottlenecks with its advanced packaging technology, CoWoS, which is essential for assembling complex AI processors [10] Pricing Power and Margins - TSMC has implemented a price increase of 3% to 10% on its advanced nodes for 2026, which customers have accepted due to the superior performance of its chips, helping maintain healthy gross margins above 59% [11] Geopolitical Strategy - TSMC is mitigating geopolitical risks through global diversification, including the Gigafab project in Arizona, which is on track to produce advanced chips ahead of schedule [12][13] - The expansion of manufacturing capacity in the U.S., Japan, and Germany reduces geographical concentration and enhances investor confidence [14] Investment Outlook - TSMC combines stability with growth potential, offering high margins, consistent cash flow, and a reliable dividend, making it a foundational holding for the AI era [15] - Upcoming earnings calls will provide insights into margin guidance, crucial for assessing the impact of recent price hikes on inflation and expansion costs [16] Capacity Expansion - TSMC is on track to reach a capacity of 130,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026, unlocking significant revenue previously held in backlog [17]

Group 1 - Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (NASDAQ:CRDO) is recognized as a must-buy AI stock, with BofA recently lowering its price target from $240 to $200 while maintaining a Buy rating [1][2] - The year 2026 is identified as a pivotal point in a long-term process (8-10 years) for upgrading IT systems to support faster AI tasks, driven by the demand for more powerful AI capabilities [2] - BofA analysts highlight that while there are challenges related to AI investment returns and hyperscaler cash flows, there are also positive factors such as advancements in large language models and the emergence of specialized AI factories that could increase demand for companies like Credo [3] Group 2 - Barclays also maintains a Buy rating on Credo with a price target of $220, citing optimism about the company's potential to capture market share as hyperscalers expand their AI factories and upgrade data centers [4] - Credo is a semiconductor company that specializes in high-speed connectivity solutions for data infrastructure, offering a range of optical and electrical interconnect products that facilitate efficient data transfer within AI data centers [5]

Group 1 - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is highlighted as a key investment opportunity in the AI sector, particularly in the server CPU market, supported by positive trends in the chip supply chain and AI market revitalization [1][2] - Micron Technology's optimistic outlook on server unit shipments, which are expected to grow in the high teens percentage year-on-year, aligns with AMD's growth strategy, indicating strong demand despite rising DRAM prices [2][3] - AMD's total addressable market (TAM) for server CPUs is projected to double to $60 billion by 2030, with the company aiming to increase its market share from 40% to 50% [3] Group 2 - Truist has adjusted its price target for AMD from $279 to $277 while maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting a broader review of semiconductor and AI stocks amid anticipated near-term challenges in the AI sector [4] - The lead analyst at Truist, William Stein, remains optimistic about AMD and other AI infrastructure semiconductor stocks, suggesting they are undervalued relative to their growth potential [4]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) is identified as a key investment opportunity in the AI sector, with expectations of significant revenue growth and profitability through 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue Growth Expectations - Morgan Stanley anticipates TSMC will guide for 2026 revenue growth in the mid-20% range, but projects actual growth closer to 30% year-over-year, surpassing the Street consensus of 22% [2]. - The higher growth forecast is attributed to strong demand for TSMC's AI and advanced-node products, which the analysts believe is underestimated by the market [2]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Valuation - The 30% revenue growth forecast is based on a projected capital expenditure of $49 billion for 2026 and ongoing expansion of 3-nanometer capacity [3]. - TSMC's stock remains attractive at a valuation of 16x or 13x the average EPS for 2026/2027, even after the price target increase [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - TSMC is recognized as the world's largest contract chipmaker, specializing in advanced semiconductors utilized in AI training and inference, including GPUs and custom accelerators [4].