公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 相比之下，半导体行业正经历着历史性的上涨，这主要得益于全球人工智能（AI）的蓬勃发展。随着 对人工智能服务器和数据中心投资的增加，半导体需求也随之激增，这预示着超级周期的到来。 截至 11 月，芯片出口额达到创纪录的 1526 亿美元，占该国出口总额的 28.3%，几乎是 2000 年代 初的三倍。 出口日益集中于单一行业，这引发了人们的担忧：由需求和价格飙升推动的半导体超级周期，从长远 来看可能无法持续。 专家警告称，在这种不平衡的出口结构下，半导体市场的任何降温都可能损害韩国的经济稳定。由于 半导体对全球IT周期和人工智能相关投资的变化高度敏感，其下滑可能产生广泛的影响，同时对出 口、经济增长、就业和财政状况造成压力。 周日公布的数据显示，尽管韩国出口总额有所增长，但韩国出口增长越来越依赖半导体，导致出口结 构两极分化加剧。 尽管该国今年的出口额有望首次超过 7000 亿美元，但少数行业的强劲表现掩盖了更广泛的出口基础 的普遍疲软，许多行业正陷入长期低迷。 据韩国贸易、工业和资源部统计，今年1月至11月期间，韩国15种旗舰出口商品中只有5种实现了同 比增长， ...

据韩国《朝鲜日报》11月18日报道，韩国两大半导体企业三星和SK海力士16日宣布将对半导体设 施进行大规模投资。其中，三星电子投资至少60万亿韩元用于平泽5号工厂建设，扩大包括HBM在内的 下一代存储半导体产能，SK海力士在龙仁至少投资128万亿韩元建设4座晶圆厂，提高HBM等高附加值 产品产能。 业界预计，明年三星电子预计营业利润为76.20万亿韩元，SK海力士为70.27万亿韩元。外国证券公 司对明年预计更为乐观，认为三星电子利润将达116.45万亿韩元，SK海力士将达99亿韩元。原因是AI 催生的HBM等需求持续扩大的同时，通用DRAM需求也在持续增加。 （原标题：韩国两大半导体公司营业利润预计将破200万亿韩元） ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来 源 ： 内容 编译自 chosun ，谢谢 。 三星电子和SK海力士于16日宣布，将继续推进大规模半导体设施投资。三星电子将在其平泽园区 启动第五座工厂（P5）的建设，计划于2028年竣工，以扩大下一代存储半导体（例如高带宽内存 （HBM））的产能。预计投资额至少为60万亿韩元。SK海力士将在龙仁半导体产业集群投资至少 128万亿韩元，建设共计四座晶圆厂，同样旨在提高高附加值存储产品（例如HBM）的产能。 这些大规模投资的背后，是人工智能（AI）普及带来的内存需求激增。由于人工智能数据中心和 其他基础设施的扩张，大型科技公司持续面临内存短缺的困境，市场普遍预期三星电子和SK海力 士明年的营业利润将远超今年的两倍。科技行业预测，此次"半导体超级周期"并非每七八年一次的 周期性繁荣，而是由结构性因素引发的史无前例的繁荣。 三星+SK海力士预计明年营业利润将超过200万亿韩元 据 科 技 行 业 和 证 券 公 司 预 测 ， 三 星 电 子 今 年 的 合 并 营 业 利 润 预 计 将 比 上 年 增 长 15.14% ， 达 到 37.6809万亿韩元。SK海力士 ...

Core Insights - Samsung Electronics reported an operating profit of 12.1 trillion KRW in Q3, marking a 31.8% year-on-year increase and returning to the "10 trillion KRW" level after five quarters [2] - The company's sales reached a record high of 86 trillion KRW, indicating a significant recovery in performance [2] - The rebound in the semiconductor (DS) division, driven by rising general DRAM prices and increased shipments of high bandwidth memory (HBM), was the main growth driver, with an estimated operating profit of around 5 trillion KRW for this division [2] Semiconductor Division Performance - The semiconductor division's performance recovery allowed Samsung to reclaim its position as the sales leader in storage chips, with a market share of 19.4%, surpassing SK Hynix by 1.9 percentage points [2] - Analysts suggest that the substantial profit increase in Q3 was partly due to production cuts leading to soaring DRAM prices rather than structural improvements [2] HBM Development and Strategic Partnerships - Samsung is actively advancing the development of the sixth generation HBM4 and has completed the establishment of mass production systems [2] - The company has recently partnered with OpenAI to provide high-performance, low-power storage chips for its AI projects and is also undergoing HBM4 product certification with NVIDIA, indicating Samsung's commitment to solidifying its global semiconductor leadership [2]

Core Insights - General DRAM prices have been rising for seven consecutive months, with a significant increase in NAND flash prices for ten months, marking the largest growth this year [2][5][6] DRAM Market Summary - The average contract price for DDR4 8Gb (1Gx8 2133MHz) in October reached $7, an increase of 11.11% from $6.30 in September [2][5] - The price increase trend began in April with a 22.22% rise, followed by over 20% increases from May to August, although the growth rate slowed to around 10% in September [5] - PC manufacturers are stockpiling inventory to prepare for supply shortages, while suppliers are shifting production towards server DRAM and reducing PC DRAM supply, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [5] - TrendForce predicts a 25-30% increase in PC DRAM contract prices in Q4 compared to the previous quarter, driven by major suppliers adjusting production to focus on high-value products [5] NAND Flash Market Summary - The average contract price for 128Gb (16Gx8) MLC NAND flash reached $4.35 in October, up 14.93% from $3.79 in September, marking the largest monthly increase since 2025 [6] - The price surge is attributed to reduced supply and increased demand from industrial, automotive, and telecommunications sectors [6] - TrendForce forecasts that NAND flash prices may continue to rise in the first half of 2026 due to stable demand from AI servers, industrial equipment, and automotive electronics [6]

Core Insights - The demand for memory semiconductors, particularly high bandwidth memory (HBM) and general DRAM, is surging due to the explosive growth of data generated by AI entities like OpenAI and Gemini [1][2] - Major electronic and IT companies in the US and China are negotiating long-term DRAM supply contracts with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to secure inventory amid concerns of DRAM shortages [1][2] - The combined market share of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the global general DRAM market exceeds 70%, and both companies are shifting their investment focus towards HBM, leading to a decline in general DRAM production capacity [2][3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Companies are moving from short-term contracts to 2-3 year agreements for DRAM supply due to anticipated shortages, with some server clients discussing orders extending to 2027 and beyond [1][2] - The spot price for DDR4 8Gb DRAM reached $7.3, marking a 265% increase from $2 in April, the first time prices have exceeded $7 since October 2018 [2][3] Market Outlook - Investment banks, including UBS, predict a "once-in-a-decade boom" in the memory semiconductor market, with DRAM fixed transaction price growth forecasted to rise from 5% to 17% in Q4 [3] - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are expected to see significant profit increases, with projected combined operating profits reaching 12.8 trillion KRW, a 64% year-on-year growth [3]

Core Insights - Samsung Electronics announced a surprising performance for Q3, confirming a prosperous period for memory semiconductors, with SK Hynix expected to achieve a record 12 trillion KRW in Q3 [1] - SK Hynix maintains high profitability centered around high bandwidth memory (HBM) due to investments in AI infrastructure, with general memory prices rising further boosting its performance [1] - Securities firms have raised their earnings forecasts for SK Hynix ahead of its Q3 earnings announcement, with expectations of record quarterly operating profit [1] Group 1 - SK Hynix's operating profit for Q3 is estimated to reach between 10 to 11 trillion KRW, marking the highest quarterly profit in the company's history [1] - Kiwoom Securities predicts that the price increase for general DRAM and NAND will exceed initial estimates, particularly for PC DRAM, which is expected to rise by 20% to 30% compared to the previous quarter [2] - Samsung Electronics reported Q3 revenue of 86 trillion KRW and operating profit of 12.1 trillion KRW, representing year-on-year growth of 8.7% and 31.8%, respectively, exceeding market expectations by nearly 2 trillion KRW [2] Group 2 - Despite a decline in prices for the fifth-generation HBM (HBM3E) products starting in Q3, SK Hynix is expected to remain profitable due to the transition to the next generation HBM4 and the favorable market conditions from rising general DRAM prices [2] - SK Hynix holds approximately 60% of the global HBM market share as of Q2, with continued growth in HBM shipments for AI servers into Q3 [2] - Analysts predict that SK Hynix's HBM sales will exceed planned figures for Q3, indicating strong demand in the market [2]

Core Insights - Samsung Electronics achieved record sales in Q3, exceeding market expectations for operating profit, indicating a significant profit surprise. This aligns with the positive performance of TSMC and other semiconductor companies, suggesting a global embrace of a semiconductor supercycle [1][2]. Group 1: Signs of the Semiconductor Supercycle - The semiconductor industry is entering a supercycle characterized by soaring demand, supply shortages, and skyrocketing prices, marking the first occurrence since 2018. This supercycle is expected to last at least until 2027 [2]. - Four clear signals indicate the arrival of the supercycle: 1. Rapid growth in demand for AI accelerators due to large-scale data center construction, benefiting companies like Samsung and SK Hynix [2]. 2. A shift in focus towards High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) production, leading to a decline in general DRAM output, which is seen as a second sign of the supercycle [2]. 3. Increased sales of enterprise SSDs (eSSD) driven by the need for independent storage as AI expands into inference, indicating a third sign of the supercycle [2]. 4. The inability of Chinese memory companies to catch up in advanced DRAM fields, further supporting the supercycle narrative [2]. Group 2: Structural Differences in the Upcoming Supercycle - The semiconductor supercycle in 2025 will exhibit structural differences compared to previous cycles, primarily driven by investments in AI by large tech companies, rather than mobile device demand [4]. - High-performance semiconductors for AI computing, data centers, and autonomous driving will lead the market, while IoT and consumer electronics will support growth [4]. - The focus has shifted from general DRAM and NAND flash to high-end storage products like HBM, indicating a qualitative change in the market dynamics [5]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Projections - Samsung Electronics is expected to benefit significantly from the structural supercycle, with projections indicating it will hold 32% of the DRAM market and 30% of the NAND flash market by 2026 [5]. - Samsung regained its position as the leader in the memory market in Q3, with sales reaching $19.4 billion, surpassing SK Hynix's $17.5 billion [5]. - Analysts have raised Samsung's operating profit forecast for 2026 by 36% to 73 trillion KRW, reflecting strong performance expectations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated supply shortage of general DRAM and NAND Flash in the coming year, driven by the increasing demand from the AI industry and the focus of major companies on expanding high bandwidth memory (HBM) production [2][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major semiconductor companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are concentrating on expanding HBM capacity, which is contributing to the tight supply of general DRAM [3]. - Despite the expansion of production lines for DRAM, a significant portion is expected to be allocated to HBM production, leading to a potential shortage in the general DRAM market next year [3]. - IM Securities projects a 13.5% increase in DRAM capacity and a 13.9% increase in NAND Flash capacity next year, while demand is expected to grow by 13.7% and 14%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Price Increases - The demand for NAND Flash is also surging due to the rapid replacement of HDDs with SSDs in AI data centers, as SSDs offer superior performance [3]. - NAND Flash manufacturers, such as SanDisk, have already begun to raise prices, with a reported 10% increase in early September [4]. - Micron has ceased providing price quotes for certain general DRAM products, indicating a trend of price increases exceeding 20% for some items [4].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the memory chip sector, with increasing prices, inventory reduction, and order recovery indicating a potential end to the "winter" previously forecasted by Morgan Stanley [3][25]. Group 1: Signals of Recovery - Signal 1: South Korea's general DRAM exports have surged, with a 27.8% increase in March, 38% in April, 36% in May, and 25.5% in the first 20 days of June, indicating a shift towards supply-demand tightness [4][6]. - Signal 2: Samsung's general DRAM performance is improving, with expected operating profit of 2 trillion KRW (approximately 1.5 billion USD) in Q2, doubling from the previous quarter due to rising DRAM prices [9]. - Signal 3: DDR4 prices have skyrocketed, with a 16Gb DDR4 chip price rising from 5.6 USD on May 23 to 11.5 USD by June 20, while DDR5 prices remain stable around 6 USD [11][13]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Signal 4: Micron reported strong financial results with quarterly revenue of 9.3 billion USD, a 15.5% quarter-over-quarter increase, and a 36.6% year-over-year increase, significantly exceeding market expectations [14]. - Signal 5: SK Hynix has gained a competitive edge in the DRAM market, achieving a 36% market share in Q1, driven by HBM demand, and expects Q2 operating profit to reach nearly 9 trillion KRW (approximately 6.6 billion USD) [17][19]. Group 3: Structural Changes in the Industry - The current recovery is attributed to structural changes, including the active phase-out of DDR4 by major manufacturers, which reduces supply pressure and shifts focus to DDR5 and HBM products [21]. - Capacity shifts towards HBM production are increasing unit profits, with SK Hynix's capital expenditure rising to 29 trillion KRW, reflecting a strategic pivot to higher-value products [22]. - Policy-driven inventory accumulation due to uncertain trade policies has further contributed to rising short-term prices [23]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with multiple indicators suggesting that the "chip winter" may be over, despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [26][27].