Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Industry Weekly Report - Date: June 29, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Market Information Domestic Market - Spot Quotes: Nanning intermediary platform offers 6,110 yuan/ton, Kunming intermediary offers 5,830 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 330,000 tons; imported 64,200 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 150,700 tons [3] International Market - Last week, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded after hitting a new low. The main factor was the oil price increase caused by the Israel-Iran conflict, which drove up the agricultural product sector. However, the rebound of the external market was not strong due to the decoupling of Brazilian gasoline prices from crude oil prices. With relatively low imports in China, the price of domestic sugar is supported [4] Price and Spread Data Futures - Futures closing prices and spreads on June 30, 2025: SR01 at 5,600 yuan/ton with 0% change, SR03 at 5,573 yuan/ton with 0% change, etc. [5] Spot - Spot prices and spreads on June 27, 2025: Nanning at 6,030 yuan/ton with a 50-yuan increase, etc. [6] Basis - Basis and its changes on June 27, 2025: Nanning - SR01 basis at 490 yuan with a 33-yuan increase, etc. [7][10] Import Prices - Import prices and their changes from June 20, 2025: Brazilian import quota price at 4,450 yuan/ton with a 26-yuan decrease, etc. [11] Industry News - In the first three weeks of June, Brazil exported 2.103 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export of 152,000 tons, a 6% decrease compared to June last year [9] - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India estimates that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 35 million tons [9] - According to Unica data, in late May, the central-southern region of Brazil crushed 47.85 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year increase of 5.47%, produced 2.95 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 8.86%, and the sugar production ratio was 51.85%, compared to 48.2% in the same period last year [9] - Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's sugar production is lagging, but the sugar-to-ethanol ratio is rising, leading to strong expectations of reduced production for the new season, while markets anticipate increased production from India and Thailand, which is suppressing sugar prices [1] Group 1: Production and Market Dynamics - Brazil's sugar production progress is slow, with a significant decline in the crushing volume, down 20.24% year-on-year to 76.714 million tons as of mid-May 2025/26 [1] - The sugar production rate in Guangxi has improved, with cumulative sugar sales reaching 4.6453 million tons by the end of May, an increase of 537,100 tons year-on-year, and a production-to-sales ratio of 71.85%, up 5.39 percentage points [1] - The Indian Sugar Mills Association forecasts an ending stock of 4.8 to 5 million tons for the 2024/25 season, sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs in late 2025, despite a decline in production this season [1] Group 2: Import and Export Trends - China has suspended imports of Thai sugar syrup and premixed powder, although Thailand has expressed willingness to rectify the situation [1] - Sugar imports in May reached 350,000 tons, an increase of 333,100 tons year-on-year, indicating a favorable profit window for imports outside of quotas [1] - The import of sugar syrup and premixed powder in May was 64,200 tons, a significant decrease of 150,700 tons year-on-year, marking the second-lowest level for the same period in five years [1] Group 3: Future Production Expectations - Analysts predict a 5% increase in Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season, reaching 46 million tons [1] - Thailand's sugar production for the 2024/25 season is expected to rise to 10.39 million tons [1] - India's early monsoon rains are anticipated to lead to a strong recovery in sugar production for the 2025/26 season, potentially reaching around 35 million tons [1]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article revolves around the historical and contemporary perspectives on high tariffs and trade protectionism, particularly in developing countries [1][2][4] - The article highlights the contradiction that while many economists have proven the ineffectiveness of protected industries, the call for high tariffs persists, especially from advanced nations [3][4] - The article discusses the evolution of trade policies in the U.S. as outlined by Douglas Irwin, focusing on three main goals: Revenue, Restriction, and Reciprocity, with the emphasis shifting over time [5][30] Group 2 - The "Infant Industry Argument" proposed by Alexander Hamilton suggests that nascent industries require temporary protection from foreign competition to develop [6][7] - Friedrich List expanded on Hamilton's ideas, advocating for differentiated and progressive tariffs to protect industries with potential for growth while allowing for eventual transition to free trade [10][11] - Raul Prebisch's "Center-Periphery" theory posits that developing countries must break the unequal trade relationship with industrialized nations through strategies like import substitution and export-oriented growth [13][14][16] Group 3 - Empirical studies by economists like Frédéric Bastiat and Amasa Walker demonstrate that trade protection often leads to inefficiencies and does not guarantee the intended benefits for domestic industries [19][22] - Philippe Aghion's research indicates that protectionist policies can hinder economic dynamism and lead to stagnation, as seen in Japan's economy [28][29] - The article suggests that non-tariff measures may be more effective than tariffs in achieving trade protection goals, as supported by various studies [29][30] Group 4 - The article outlines the historical phases of U.S. trade policy, indicating a potential return to a focus on revenue generation through tariffs as the national debt escalates [33][39] - The shift in U.S. industrial structure towards services and the geographical concentration of manufacturing has implications for future trade policy [37][38] - The increasing national debt and its impact on fiscal policy may drive the U.S. government to prioritize high tariffs as a means of revenue generation [38][39]

Market Overview - The main white sugar futures contract experienced a slight increase, closing at 5790 CNY/ton, up by 63 CNY or 1.1%, with a reduction of 15891 contracts [1] Fundamental Summary - According to Williams, a Brazilian shipping agency, the amount of sugar waiting for shipment at ports was 2.7042 million tons for the week ending June 25, down from 2.8539 million tons the previous week [2] - The Brazilian government announced an increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30%, which may impact the sugar production ratio [3] - Sao Martinho, the world's largest sugar processing company, expects its sugarcane crushing volume for the 2025/26 season to be 22.6 million tons [4] Institutional Perspectives - Hualian Futures noted that the Brazilian National Energy Policy Council will decide later in June whether to raise the ethanol blending ratio, which could boost international sugar prices. China's sugar imports hit a new low in the first five months of 2025, but there was a significant increase in May. With domestic production inventories declining, there is a need for imported sugar to fill the gap, especially as international raw sugar prices have dropped, increasing import profitability. The demand season is gradually improving, and a buy recommendation is suggested with a support level of 5600 CNY/ton for Zheng sugar [5] - Southwest Futures indicated that while Brazilian crushing is expected to accelerate, prices have largely reflected the anticipated increase in production. The escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant rise in crude oil prices, which may increase the ethanol production ratio at Brazilian sugar mills, reducing sugar supply. With low domestic inventories and an expected increase in imports, the supply-demand imbalance is not acute, and the current price basis is high with low valuation. A gradual buying strategy is recommended as the consumption peak season approaches [5]

Industry Report Overview 1. Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: June 27, 2025 - Analysts: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Core Views - New York raw sugar futures rebounded slightly, with the main October contract up 1.59% to 16.62 cents per pound. London ICE white sugar futures' main August contract rose 2.4% to $479 per ton. Frost in Brazilian sugar - cane regions and an increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline are expected to reduce sugar - making raw material supply [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract rose slightly. The 09 contract closed at 5,790 yuan per ton, up 63 yuan or 1.1%, with a reduction of 15,891 positions. Domestic spot prices rose. Zhengzhou sugar was strong, with limited fundamental changes. After being pressured by funds, it faced strong resistance below 5,600 yuan, and large speculative short - positions leaving supported the price [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestion - **Futures Market:** SR509 closed at 5,790 yuan per ton, up 63 yuan or 1.1%, with a position reduction of 15,891 contracts; SR601 closed at 5,601 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan or 0.72%, with a position increase of 956 contracts; US Sugar 10 closed at 16.62 cents per pound, up 0.26 cents or 1.59%, with a position increase of 8,324 contracts; US Sugar 03 closed at 17.26 cents per pound, up 0.22 cents or 1.29%, with a position increase of 2,553 contracts [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Brazil will increase the mandatory anhydrous ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel blending ratio in ordinary diesel from 14% to 15% starting August 1 [9]. - Itaú BBA predicts that the sugar - cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2025/26 season will be 590 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. However, sugar production is expected to reach 41.2 million tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase, with a sugar - making ratio of 52% and an average ATR of 141 kg per ton [9]. - Indonesia's 2025 white sugar production is expected to be 2.75 million tons, higher than last year's 2.45 million tons. It plans to import about 200,000 tons of raw sugar, and the demand in 2025 is expected to reach 2.84 million tons [9]. - As of the week ending June 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 80 the previous week. The sugar volume waiting to be shipped was 2.8539 million tons, a 1.94% week - on - week decrease [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot price trends, contract basis, spread, import profit, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract [11][13][20][23]

南非制糖业面临生存危机，补贴与倾销双重压力下，全球糖业市场的未来走向何方？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Sugar Industry**: The records primarily discuss the sugar industry, focusing on Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, along with insights into the wood industry in New Zealand. Key Points Brazil Sugar Production - **Cane Crushing and Sugar Production**: Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production decreased by 11.85% and 11.64% year-on-year as of May 2025 due to heavy rainfall in April and early May. However, production improved in late May as rainfall decreased, leading to a recovery in sugar production [3][5][6]. - **Total Sugar Production Forecast**: Despite lower yields, the sugar production ratio increased, with total sugar production expected to exceed 40 million tons for the 2025 season [5][6]. - **Ethanol Market**: Ethanol sales in Brazil remained stable year-on-year, with a high market share of hydrous ethanol in the fuel market, indicating a surplus supply of sugarcane [7]. International Sugar Market - **India's Sugar Production**: For the 2025/26 season, India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly to between 32.3 million and 35 million tons due to favorable rainfall and increased procurement prices [11][12]. - **Thailand's Sugar Production**: Thailand's sugar production is expected to remain stable or slightly increase due to good rainfall and an increase in planting area [13]. Domestic Sugar Market (China) - **Production and Sales**: China's sugar production and sales are expected to increase for the 2024/25 season, with a significant reduction in imports. Sugar syrup and premix powder imports have also decreased, positively impacting domestic sugar prices [14][15]. - **Weather Impact**: The weather in Guangxi during the third quarter is crucial for sugarcane yields, with historical data indicating that rainfall during this period significantly affects final yields [16][19]. Wood Industry (New Zealand) - **Current Market Conditions**: The New Zealand wood industry is in a downturn, with low international demand leading to reduced production and exports. The domestic wood futures and spot prices are weak, and a surplus supply is expected in the next two years, followed by a reduction cycle starting in 2027 [4][20][24]. Price Trends and Market Outlook - **Sugar Price Trends**: The sugar prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the near term due to strong production forecasts in major producing countries. The market is closely monitoring weather conditions that could impact yields [2][19]. - **Wood Price Trends**: The wood market is expected to see a slight rebound in prices, but overall, the market remains in a downtrend due to weak demand [20][31]. Additional Insights - **Export and Inventory Levels**: Brazil's sugar exports from January to May 2025 totaled 9.5381 million tons, a significant decrease year-on-year, with inventories at a low level of 2.8 million tons, down 35.37% [9]. - **Weather Predictions**: Future weather patterns in Brazil indicate potential challenges for sugarcane harvesting in June but favorable conditions from July to September, which could benefit sugarcane growth [10]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, focusing on the sugar and wood industries, their production forecasts, market conditions, and price trends.

货需求，冷饮等季节性消费可能回暖，为价格带来一定支撑，短期呈现反弹走势。后期关注到港和夏季消 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 费情况。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 白糖产业日报 2025-06-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5790 | 33 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 326870 | -15891 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 24302 | -310 ...

Group 1 - The report from Itaú BBA predicts a 5% decrease in sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central-southern region for the 2025/26 season, amounting to 590 million tons, with significant declines in the western and northwestern parts of São Paulo state [1] - Despite the decrease in crushing volume, sugar production is expected to increase by 2.7% to 41.2 million tons, with a sugar-to-cane ratio of 52% and an ATR (Total Recoverable Sugar) of 141 kg/ton [1] - Current spot prices for sugar in China show an increase, with Guangxi Sugar Group reporting prices between 6000 - 6080 yuan/ton, up by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices remain stable at 5790 - 5830 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The cotton market is experiencing upward movement, with ICE cotton prices rising by 0.78% to 68.32 cents per pound, and domestic cotton prices in Xinjiang increasing by 65 yuan/ton to 14832 yuan/ton [1] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% for two consecutive days, and cotton prices in Zhengzhou breaking through 13600 yuan/ton due to low commercial inventories and weather disturbances in Xinjiang [1] - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of improvement, with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a slight strengthening of cotton prices, although the fundamental drivers remain limited [1]

Core Insights - ICE raw sugar futures prices have reached a four-year low, indicating a significant downturn in the market [1] - A global oversupply warning in the sugar market has been issued, primarily attributed to increased production in India and Thailand [1] Industry Summary - The sugar market is currently facing an oversupply situation, which is leading to declining prices [1] - India and Thailand are identified as the main contributors to the increased sugar production, exacerbating the supply issue [1]