证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 05 06 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 喜忧并存—五一大事 9 大看点 今日概览 重磅研报 【宏观】喜忧并存—五一大事 9 大看点——20250505 【策略】5 月策略观点与金股推荐：兼顾产业趋势与政策期待—— 20250505 【金融工程】市场短期补涨后或有回档——20250504 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：拥挤度&反转维度分数显著上升—— 20250504 【固定收益】五月的机会——20250505 【固定收益】跨月资金变化有限，关注节后资金面——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20250505 【固定收益】小长假有哪些关注点——20250504 【汽车】财报总结：终端折扣率高位运行，降本控费释放企业盈利能力 ——20250505 【银行】3 月重点省市信贷投放情况如何？——20250505 【银行】银行研究框架及 24A&25Q1 业绩综述：负债成本改善力度加大， 息差降幅有望继续收窄——如何看财务报表、经营情况、识别风险—— 20250505 【汽车】2024&2025Q1 总结：板块景气度上行，龙头盈利能力修复—— 20250505 【建筑材料 ...

一型飞机要保证安全可靠，首飞前必须经过特定的强度试验验证。 "我们的工作就是给几乎所有的中国飞机发放'强度合格证'。"强度所所长王彬文告诉记者，强度所的职 责之一，就是通过三大类四层级的"积木式"强度验证体系，对各型飞机强度进行充分试验验证。 说起所里的工作，王彬文滔滔不绝。但要说最令他感到骄傲的，还是强度所近年来在飞机气候环境适应 性评估领域取得的突破性成就。 气候环境是影响飞机安全运行的重要因素，气候环境适应性是飞机最根本的特性之一。"飞机和人一 样，面对不同气候环境变化，都有可能产生'头疼脑热'。"王彬文说，如何让飞机在面临各种极端环境 时依然能正常运行，不被"头疼脑热"影响，一直是飞机研制中的重要工作。 五月刚到，陕西西安就有了初夏的温热。但在西安市阎良区的一处大型厂房式建筑里，气温还停留在初 春时节，四季轮转在这里可以做到"一键切换"。 这所建筑是中国飞机强度研究所（以下简称"强度所"）历时15年研发建设的大型气候环境实验室。"这 就是目前世界体量最大、模拟气候种类最多、技术性能指标最优的大型气候环境实验室。"强度所某科 研人员说。不久前，科技日报记者跟随中国航空工业集团国企开放日活动走进强度所大型 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the military industry [2] Core Insights - The military sector is experiencing a bottoming out and marginal recovery, with new directions showing superior performance [9][15] - The J-35 supply chain is entering a phase of prosperity, with increased production capacity supporting the launch of new models [52][73] - The report highlights the importance of contract liabilities and inventory stability as indicators of demand recovery in the industry [27][95] Summary by Sections Military Sector Overview - The military sector's revenue growth from 2021 to Q1 2025 shows a decline, with a notable drop in net profit in 2024, but a recovery trend is observed in Q1 2025 [18][19] - The main track of the military sector includes traditional aircraft, engines, and missiles, with revenue growth rates declining but showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025 [19][23] J-35 Supply Chain - The J-35, China's second stealth fighter, is expected to have a strong export potential due to its competitive pricing and fully domestic production [55][61] - The company plans to invest 11 billion yuan in local relocation and production capacity expansion to support new model production [73][81] New Directions in the Industry - New directions such as military trade and new equipment are showing upward trends in revenue and profit growth, indicating a recovery in demand [38][48] - Companies like Tunan Co. are focusing on advanced metal materials and innovative business models to capture growth opportunities in the defense sector [99][102] Financial Performance - The report indicates that major manufacturers like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation have seen significant increases in contract liabilities, suggesting a positive outlook for future demand [27][95] - The financial metrics for the military sector show a narrowing of profit declines in Q1 2025, with a focus on maintaining stable inventory levels [19][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for investment over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.85 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 14.77% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.69 billion yuan, an increase of 42.85% year-on-year [1]. - The foreign trade revenue is growing rapidly, and the company is benefiting from equipment upgrades and opportunities in domestic aviation engine localization [2]. - The company aims for a revenue target of 4.46 billion yuan and total operating costs of 4.34 billion yuan for 2025 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.85 billion yuan, down from 4.52 billion yuan in 2023, while the net profit increased to 0.69 billion yuan from 0.48 billion yuan in 2023 [4]. - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2024 were 16.09% and 3.53%, respectively, both showing improvements compared to the previous year [1][4]. Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiary China Aviation Engine Harbin Axle achieved a revenue of 0.907 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.118 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit margin of 13.06% [2]. - The subsidiary Fast reported a revenue of 0.189 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.022 billion yuan, with a significant net profit margin increase of 11.62% [2]. Market Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for domestic aviation products due to the trend of localization in commercial aviation engines [2]. - The company plans to capture opportunities in the recovering international aviation and gas turbine markets, particularly targeting the European market for new growth points [1]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 40% and 77%, respectively, with projected net profits of 1.01 billion yuan and 1.52 billion yuan [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.30 yuan, 0.46 yuan, and 0.61 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 81x, 53x, and 40x [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][17]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.89 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 40.6% to 75 million yuan [2][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 640 million yuan, up 12.6% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders also declined by 15.2% to 42 million yuan [2][4]. - The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in the airport equipment sector, driven by domestic recovery and international expansion, with a projected revenue of 3.61 billion yuan in 2025 [2][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2.89 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.01 billion yuan by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.1%, 25.1%, 19.0%, and 16.6% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rebound significantly in 2025, reaching 260 million yuan, a growth of 248.7% compared to 2024 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.14 yuan in 2024 to 0.82 yuan by 2027 [4]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has secured international orders worth 1.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67%, indicating strong demand in the global market [2][8]. - Domestic orders for airport equipment reached 1.06 billion yuan, up 68% year-on-year, reflecting a robust recovery in the domestic market [2][8]. - The company is also expanding into the mobile medical and emergency rescue drone sectors, which are expected to become new growth points [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for Q1 2025, but an increase in net profit, driven by improved gross margin and other income growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.438 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41.38% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 289 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.97% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 262.38% [1]. - The non-recurring net profit was 298 million, with a year-on-year increase of 7.45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 744.43% [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 8.24%, up by 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The overall expense ratio increased by 0.15 percentage points, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing mixed changes [2]. - Other income increased by 17 million, a year-on-year growth of 376.65%, due to tax incentives for advanced manufacturing enterprises [2]. Asset Management and Cash Flow - The return on equity (ROE) for Q1 2025 was 1.36%, maintaining a strong level compared to the past three years [3]. - Inventory balance was 22.086 billion, down 2.67% from the beginning of the year, indicating improved inventory management [3]. - Accounts receivable increased by 30.37% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to outstanding payments for sales [3]. - Contract liabilities decreased by 1.10% quarter-on-quarter, suggesting a slowdown in the consumption of contract liabilities [3]. - Operating cash flow was -3.593 billion, showing significant improvement compared to Q1 2024 [3]. Strategic Positioning - The company is the sole main manufacturer of a full range of large aircraft in China, focusing on military and civilian aircraft [4]. - The military transport aircraft segment is seen as a force multiplier, with recent participation in international exercises enhancing military trade prospects [4]. - The company is positioned to capture significant value in the domestic large aircraft market, particularly with the C919 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.152 billion, 1.398 billion, and 1.694 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.52%, 21.42%, and 21.14% respectively [4]. - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for April 30, 2025, are estimated at 56.08, 46.19, and 38.13 times [4].

中航产融（600705）公告，控股子公司中航投资拟通过非公开协议转让方式，向控股股东中航工业转让 所持中航西飞（000768）1.6亿股无限售流通股份(占总股本5.76%)及中航机载（600372）2267.72万股无 限售流通股份(占总股本0.47%)。交易完成后，公司及控股子公司将不再直接持有中航西飞和中航机载 股份。交易总价款为40.67亿元，尚需提交股东大会及中航工业董事会决议通过，并需取得中航工业批 复，办理股份过户登记手续。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details a share transfer agreement between AVIC Investment and its controlling entity, AVIC, which will result in a change in shareholding structure without altering the controlling shareholder or actual controller of the company [1] Group 1 - AVIC Investment will transfer 22,677,200 shares, representing 0.47% of the total shares of the company, to AVIC through a private agreement [1] - After the transfer, AVIC's shareholding will increase to 6.31%, while AVIC Investment will no longer hold any shares in the company [1] - This transaction is classified as an internal transfer between shareholders under the same control, ensuring no change in the company's controlling shareholder or actual controller [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Aircraft Strength Research Institute, established 60 years ago, has significantly contributed to the development of key national aircraft such as the J-20, Y-20, C919, and AG600, supporting the innovation and advancement of aviation weaponry [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Development - The Strength Research Institute, created in 1965, is the only center in China for aircraft strength research, verification, and certification, responsible for ground strength validation tests for new and modified aircraft [2]. - The completion of the H-6 aircraft destruction test in 1968 marked China's capability to conduct large aircraft strength verification, ushering in a new era for the country's aviation strength sector [2]. - Over the past 60 years, the institute has developed a comprehensive testing capability system covering various types of military and civilian aircraft [2]. Group 2: Innovations and Achievements - The institute has focused on meeting equipment development needs and has achieved several "firsts" in both domestic and international contexts, including the establishment of a large-scale climate environment laboratory for weapon systems [3]. - The climate environment laboratory is the largest and most complex of its kind globally, enabling the simulation of various environmental factors, thus enhancing the efficiency of equipment development [3]. - The laboratory has been instrumental in supporting the development of both military and civilian aircraft, including accelerating the airworthiness certification process for domestic large passenger aircraft [4]. Group 3: Specific Projects - The AG600 amphibious aircraft, the largest of its kind globally, successfully passed rigorous testing and verification, with the Strength Research Institute playing a crucial role throughout its development cycle [5]. - The C919 aircraft project has seen significant contributions from the institute, including overcoming technical challenges and conducting high-altitude tests in its climate environment laboratory [6]. - The institute pioneered the indoor testing of engine performance under snow conditions, marking a significant advancement in aircraft testing methodologies [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.834 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 38.55%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 431 million yuan, down 39.87% year-on-year [5][6] - The decline in revenue is attributed to external factors such as contract signing progress and supply chain issues, but ongoing fundraising projects are expected to enhance the company's capabilities in weaponry and equipment construction [6] - The company aims to complete its annual tasks in 2025, which is a critical year in the "14th Five-Year Plan," with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 3.743 billion yuan, 4.323 billion yuan, and 5.051 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10.3%, 15.5%, and 16.8% respectively [7] Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is 117.6 billion yuan, with a closing price of 42.66 yuan [2] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 42.837 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%, followed by a recovery with expected growth of 10.0% in 2025 [9] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 31.41, 27.19, and 23.27 respectively, indicating a potential for valuation improvement over the forecast period [7][9]