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在贪婪与恐惧之外,霍华德·马克斯谈当下该如何应对 | 大家谈
高毅资产管理· 2025-04-08 11:03
Core Viewpoint - The current global economic environment is undergoing significant disruption due to trade tensions and tariff escalations, leading to unprecedented uncertainty about future market conditions [1][8][29]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The credit market currently offers better investment opportunities compared to stocks, with high-yield bonds yielding approximately 8%, up from 7.2% six weeks ago [2][3]. - The stock market has experienced a decline of approximately 15% to 17% recently, attributed to a deteriorating macroeconomic environment [4][5]. - The extent of the stock market decline raises questions about whether the drop is excessive, appropriate, or insufficient, but no one can definitively answer this [6][18]. Group 2: Trade and Globalization - The shift towards protectionism and trade restrictions marks a significant paradigm shift from the era of free trade and globalization, which has historically contributed to economic prosperity [8][9]. - The benefits of trade include specialization and cost advantages, which enhance global welfare; a move away from trade could lead to decreased living standards [9][10]. - The potential for sustained inflation exists as global supply chains that have historically kept prices low are disrupted by tariffs and trade barriers [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Current market conditions present a "market dislocation" scenario, where asset prices may not accurately reflect future risks and returns [17][18]. - Investors must assess whether current price declines represent a buying opportunity or if further adjustments are necessary, as this judgment cannot be quantified [19][20]. - The historical average annual return for stocks is around 10%, but with the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at 19, future returns may be lower than historical averages [13][14]. Group 4: U.S. Investment Landscape - The U.S. remains a potentially attractive investment destination, but its advantages have diminished due to weakening rule of law, predictability of outcomes, and fiscal challenges [33]. - Concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt could complicate its investment appeal, especially if global sentiment shifts against the dollar [33].
再跳水!印尼股市一度暴跌4%,四年来首次跌破6000点
华尔街见闻· 2025-03-24 11:37
Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian stock market has experienced significant declines, with the Jakarta Composite Index dropping over 4% and falling below 6000 points for the first time since 2021, reflecting investor concerns over the new government's fiscal policies and external uncertainties [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Jakarta Composite Index has cumulatively decreased by approximately 17% over the past year, making it one of the worst-performing markets globally [2]. - The Indonesian Rupiah has also depreciated against the US dollar, with a decline of about 2% this year [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investor sell-offs are primarily driven by strong concerns regarding the fiscal plans of the new President Prabowo Subianto and uncertainties stemming from Trump's tariff policies [3][4]. - The establishment of a new sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, which involves transferring state-owned enterprise shares, has raised investor fears about the loss of fiscal discipline established during the previous administration [4]. Group 3: Economic Conditions - There are growing concerns about weak consumer spending, which has historically been a strong driver of Indonesia's economic growth [7][8]. - Recent deflationary data has heightened worries, with the consumer price index showing a year-on-year decline for the first time in 25 years, and consumer confidence indices dropping for two consecutive months [9]. Group 4: Government Fiscal Policies - President Prabowo has introduced an ambitious nationwide free meal program for schoolchildren and pregnant women, expected to cost around $28 billion annually, which places significant pressure on the already strained fiscal budget [10][11]. - The implementation of this program has led to extensive austerity measures across various sectors, with national revenue reportedly declining by one-fifth in the first two months of the year [11]. Group 5: Political Stability - There are speculations regarding the potential resignation of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, which has added to market anxiety despite government denials [12].
霍华德·马克斯最新对话谈运气的重要,以及如何让自己更走运︱重阳荐文
重阳投资· 2025-03-24 07:09
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of being prepared for opportunities in investing, as articulated by Howard Marks, who believes that luck plays a significant role in success but is often a result of being ready when opportunities arise [1][54]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Investment is not about seeking absolute certainty but making reasonable decisions amid uncertainty, with a focus on maintaining composure in emotionally driven markets [2]. - Successful investors should identify a few critical factors and conduct deep research rather than trying to grasp all available information [2]. - The ability to control oneself rather than the market is crucial for both investing and life [2]. Group 2: Early Experiences and Learning - Howard Marks reflects on his early experiences, particularly how a high school accounting course shaped his logical thinking and understanding of financial principles [9][11]. - His career began at Citibank, where he was unexpectedly moved to the bond department, leading to significant learning and growth in the convertible bond market [14][15]. - Marks highlights the importance of doing what others are unwilling to do as a key to extraordinary success in investing [16][17]. Group 3: Selling Strategies - The challenge in investing lies not in deciding when to sell but in having the patience to hold until investments begin to pay off [19][20]. - Many investors sell based on emotional reactions to price changes rather than a rational assessment of the investment's value [25][26]. - A proper sell decision should be based on a reevaluation of the investment's original assumptions and whether they still hold true [28][29]. Group 4: Market Behavior - Markets are driven by cycles of greed and fear, leading to overreactions that create investment opportunities [33]. - Emotional extremes in market perception often lead to significant price volatility, which can be exploited by calm and rational investors [34]. Group 5: Intellectual Humility - Marks advocates for "intellectual humility," recognizing the limits of one's knowledge and the unpredictability of the future [36][38]. - Acknowledging that certainty is an illusion in investing can prevent costly mistakes [36][38]. Group 6: Preparation Over Prediction - The article stresses that while predicting the future is impossible, preparing for various potential outcomes is essential for successful investing [39][40]. - Investors should build portfolios that can perform well under multiple scenarios rather than relying on a single predicted outcome [39][40]. Group 7: Private Equity Landscape - The era of private equity as a "silver bullet" investment strategy is over, particularly as interest rates rise and the favorable conditions of the past decades change [41][45]. - Marks notes that the success of private equity was largely due to a declining interest rate environment, which is unlikely to return [45]. Group 8: Key Factors for Successful Investing - Successful investing relies on superior judgment of qualitative factors and the ability to foresee future developments [46][48]. - The best investors are those who can interpret the same information differently or understand qualitative aspects that others overlook [48][50]. Group 9: U.S. Economic Outlook - Marks expresses skepticism about the sustainability of America's economic exceptionalism, noting that while the U.S. has many advantages, the likelihood of maintaining its leading position is uncertain [52][53]. Group 10: The Role of Luck - Luck is acknowledged as a significant factor in investment success, with Marks emphasizing that being prepared when opportunities arise is crucial [54][56]. - The narrative illustrates that many successful outcomes are often a result of being in the right place at the right time, combined with readiness [54][56].
外资LP归来
母基金研究中心· 2025-03-24 03:52
作为每年全国两会后首个举办的"国家级"论坛,中国发展高层论坛着眼于释放我国坚持对外开 放的强烈信号,今年也不例外。3月2 3日至2 4日,中国发展高层论坛2 0 2 5年年会在北京钓鱼台 国宾馆召开。 值得关注的是,今年外企参会呈现出多个特点:一是参会跨国企业国家范围广,共有2 1个国家 8 6位跨国企业的正式代表出席论坛,比去年增加3个国家。其中,来自美国的企业数量最多, 共2 7家;二是首次参会的跨国企业数量创新高,是历年数量最多的,占企业总数的2 0%;三是 参会跨国企业行业覆盖全,金融保险、医药健康、能源矿产等重点行业突出。 开幕式上,国家高层释放了对外开放的坚定信号:国务院总理李强2 3日上午在大会开幕式发 表主旨演讲时表示,将坚定不移推进开放合作,倡导国际通行规则下的公平竞争,维护自由贸 易和全球产业链供应链畅通稳定,继续敞开怀抱欢迎各国企业,进一步扩大市场准入,积极解 决企业关切,帮助外资企业深度融入中国市场。 3月2 3日下午,国务院总理李强在北京人民大会堂会见来华出席中国发展高层论坛2 0 2 5年年会 的美国联邦参议员戴安斯及部分美国企业界人士。李强向美国企业发出"邀请函"。他表示,中 国 ...
多家知名机构,紧急警告!
券商中国· 2025-03-20 23:23
Group 1: Economic Outlook - The risk of a recession in the U.S. is high and increasing, with Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warning that Trump's tariff policies could push the economy into recession if implemented for three to five months [1][4][3] - Zandi noted that the current economic environment is fragile, with declining consumer and business confidence impacting investment plans [4][3] - The potential for a recession is described as a "designed recession," indicating that it could be a result of deliberate policy choices rather than external shocks [4] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs has raised concerns about its impact on various sectors, including agriculture and technology [3][5] - Analysts warn that tariffs could hinder the development of U.S. data centers and AI technologies, as much of the necessary hardware is sourced from abroad [5][6] - The imposition of tariffs on key components, such as semiconductors, could pose significant risks to the data center market, which relies on global supply chains [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and its characterization of inflation as "temporary" has faced criticism, particularly from Allianz's chief economic advisor, who labeled it a "major policy mistake" [6][7] - Concerns are raised that the Fed's underestimation of inflation risks could lead to inadequate responses to economic changes, similar to past misjudgments during the pandemic [7][8] - Barclays economists suggest that the Fed's confidence in the temporary nature of price pressures may hinder its ability to respond effectively to evolving economic conditions [7][8]
如何看待近期美股市场调整︱重阳问答
重阳投资· 2025-03-13 06:26
Q: 请问重阳投资, 如何看待近期美股市场调整 ? 3. 美国经济发生深度衰退的可能性很低。受益于过去几年的财政扩张,居民和企业部门的资产 负债表目前非常健康,财政紧缩可能使美国经济受到一定冲击,但演变为深度衰退的可能性很 低。 总的来看,我们倾向于美国本轮下跌调整(跌幅10-15%)的概率大于熊市(跌幅20%)的概 率。后续市场走势一方面取决于特朗普政府财政紧缩和关税等方面的实际动作,更重要的是观 察特朗普政府主要官员对股市评论措辞的变化,观察政策期权何时出现。 免责声明 2. 财政紧缩预期压制增长前景。马斯克主导的政府效率部DOGE冻结了大量政府外包合同,计 划大规模削减联邦雇员,其影响已经在2月美国挑战者裁员报告等数据上开始显现。 3. 政策叙事转向"经济排毒论"。特朗普政府官员近期频繁提及"美国经济需要转型期",财长贝 森特称"过去依赖财政扩张、移民红利和全球化红利的增长模式不可持续"。这种叙事转变动摇 了市场对"高增长-高估值"逻辑的信仰。 但从现实来看,美国经济恶化速度并没有那么快。 1. 关税对消费影响有限。据测算,美国进口消费品仅占私人消费支出的4%,即便对墨、加、中 全面加征25%关税,受影 ...
美股再次大幅下跌
Wind万得· 2025-03-06 22:43
道琼斯工业平均指数下跌427.51点,跌幅为0.99%,收于42,579.08点,在盘中一度跌超600点。标准普尔500指数大跌1.78%,报5,738.52点。纳斯达克综合 指数下跌2.61%,收于18,069.26点,正式进入技术性调整区间,也就是从最近的高点下跌超过10%。 中概股方面, Direxion 3倍做多中国每日ETF (YINN)上涨了1.03%,iShares MSCI中国ETF (MCHI)下跌了0.55%,纳斯达克中国金龙指数 (HXC)下 跌了0.77%,万得中概科技龙头指数 (DRAG)上涨了0.41%。 周四的下跌发生在美国对加拿大、墨西哥关税本周生效后,这些关税动摇了金融市场。加拿大作出报复性关税回应,而墨西哥则表示将于周末公布 相关措施。纳斯达克指数本周迄今已下跌超过4%,而道琼斯和标准普尔500指数分别下跌了约2.9%和3.6%。三大股指正处于自2024年9月以来最糟糕 的一周。 周四的抛售潮源于白宫宣布对符合美墨加协议(USMCA)的汽车制造商延迟征收关税一个月,此前这一消息曾促使市场在周三出现反弹,这让投资者对 关税政策进一步退让抱有希望,并认为这将缓解美国经济的冲击。 ...
如何看待近期土地市场“地王”频出的现象︱重阳问答
重阳投资· 2025-02-28 07:10
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in "land kings" in the real estate market is driven by a combination of policy changes, market supply and demand dynamics, and strategies adopted by real estate companies [1] Supply Side: Improved Land Quality and Policy Relaxation - Local governments are optimizing land supply structures to enhance market activity, focusing on core locations and low plot ratio land, such as in Shanghai and Beijing, which are attractive to developers due to their scarcity and high added value [2] - Cities like Nanjing and Chengdu are raising land prices by planning large luxury homes with lower plot ratios, while many regions have lifted new home price caps, allowing developers to achieve premiums through improved product quality [2] Demand Side: Release of Pent-Up Improvement Demand - Since 2017, price control policies have suppressed genuine improvement demand in core cities, leading to a decline in the quality of new homes delivered over the past six to seven years [3] - The relaxation of price controls has resulted in a concentrated release of improvement demand, providing developers focused on quality with a broader market space [3] Market Structure: Increasing Divergence in Land and Housing Markets - Since the fourth quarter of last year, high-premium land and "land kings" have been concentrated in a few core first- and second-tier cities, while third- and fourth-tier cities continue to see land transactions at base prices [4] - Developers view core city land as a "hard currency" to withstand economic downturns, creating a feedback loop of "limited supply + quality premium" [4] - The rapid improvement in new home quality in core cities has led to a divergence between new and second-hand housing markets, with high-quality new homes enjoying significant premiums while second-hand home prices remain weak [4]
金涌投资(01328) - 自愿公告 - 与迈富时之战略合作
2025-02-12 10:42
GOLDSTREAM INVESTMENT LIMITED 金涌投資有限公司 (於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司) (股份代號:1328) 自願公告 與邁富時之戰略合作 香港交易及結算所有限公司以及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責,對 其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容 而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 有關邁富時的資料 邁富時是全球領先的SaaS智能營銷雲平台,聚焦數字化與智能化,通過提供有競爭力的 產品與服務,覆蓋營銷雲、銷售雲、商業雲、分析雲、智能雲、組織雲六大產品矩陣, 擁有Tforce營銷領域大模型,持續為客戶創造價值。累計服務超20萬家企業,涵蓋零售 消費、汽車、金融、B2B、醫藥大健康、企服、跨境電商、製造業等行業領域。 –2– 本公告乃由金涌投資有限公司(「本公司」,連同其附屬公司統稱「本集團」)自願作出, 以通知本公司股東及潛在投資者有關本公司最近期之業務發展。 戰略合作備忘錄 董事會欣然宣佈,有鑑於(其中包括)本集團與弘毅投資集團間的深厚關係,以及與邁富 時,一家於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司,其已發行股份於聯交所主板上市 ...
未来难以预测,投资者如何应对?
伍治坚证据主义· 2025-01-17 02:20
从本质上来说,任何投资决策都是预测未来。无论你决定购买股票,卖出债券,或者坐拥现金,其实都是基于你对未来做出的判断之上的决策。因此有很多 人认为,如果想要获得好的投资回报,投资者一定要有超凡的预测未来的能力。那么问题来了:事实确实是这样么? 在分析这个问题之前,我们先来看张图。 图表 1 :市场对美联储基准利率的预测总是错 数据来源:彭博社,Apollo Chief Economist 上图展示了自2008年以来美联储基准利率的历史(绿色实线)。站在现在回头看,我们可以看到一条非常清晰的历史路径:美联储在2008年金融危机后,立 刻大幅度降息至零,并将零利率水平一直保持到2016年。在2016到2020年间,美联储慢慢逐步升息。然后到了2020年,COVID疫情发生后,美联储再次将利 率降到零。从2022年开始,为了应对通胀压力,美联储又快速将基准利率提到5%左右。 很多人可能没有意识到的是,市场对于美联储未来利率的预测(上图中虚线), 从来没有正确过 。举例来说,在2008到2016年间,美联储利率始终保持在 零,然而同期市场的共识是:美联储很快就会升息。很少有人会预料到,零利率会整整持续8年。 接下来,让 ...