Geopolitical and Energy Sector Developments - U.S. aircraft carrier "Abraham Lincoln" is positioned near the Gulf of Aden, highlighting ongoing regional tensions [3] - Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) plans to invite international oil companies to assist Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) in resource development, targeting an increase to four million barrels of oil per day by 2035 [4] Corporate News: Buybacks and Regulatory Hurdles - Fuji Media Holdings Inc. has initiated a 235 billion yen share buyback program amid reports of activist investors divesting their shares [5] - AstraZeneca faced a setback as the FDA rejected its initial application for a lupus injection, potentially impacting its drug pipeline and market expectations [6] Commodity Market Dynamics - Spot silver prices surged over 9% to reach $86.58 per ounce, indicating significant activity in the precious metals market [7] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced increased margin ratios and price limits for some gold contracts to manage volatility in the precious metals market [8] European Economic Indicators - France's December budget balance improved to -124.7 billion EUR from -155.4 billion EUR, indicating a reduction in the fiscal deficit [9][10] - Preliminary figures for France's January Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a deceleration to 0.3%, missing estimates [10]

黄金市场，正在不断刷新人类对"硬通货"的认知。 2026年1月以来，金价累计上涨已超过880美元，年内涨幅超20%。当被问及对当前历史性高位的黄金市 场有何建议时，广东省黄金协会监事长兼首席分析师朱志刚告诉封面新闻记者，当前黄金市场正处 于"所有指标都可能失灵"的状态。"大家现在基本上都看涨了。"面对这样的市场情绪，他提醒投资者， 虽然长期看涨趋势明显，但短期暴涨同样伴随着暴跌风险。 黄金价格下一步还会涨吗？朱志刚透露："年初的预测是突破5000美元/盎司，已经被突破了，下一个目 标是6400美元/盎司。" 金价与金饰价格联动飙升 国际金价的暴涨迅速传导至国内零售市场。1月28日，国内主流金饰品牌报价应声刷新高位，首次突破 1600元/克大关。 具体来看，周生生足金饰品报价升至1614元/克，老庙黄金报价1612元/克，均较前一日大幅上调约37 元。而就在1月23日，国内多数品牌金饰报价刚刚突破1540元/克，短短数日涨幅惊人。回顾2026年年 初，彼时金饰价格尚在1345-1360元/克区间，年内每克上涨已超230元。 | 黄金价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the volatility in the dollar and commodities, particularly focusing on precious metals like Gold and Silver, which experienced significant corrections recently [1][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Precious Metals Volatility**: Gold and Silver saw their sharpest corrections since the 1980s, with Gold dropping by 11% and Silver by 31% after reaching record highs [1]. - **S&P 500 Performance**: The S&P 500 briefly hit 7,000 during the 4Q25 earnings releases, with 47% of market cap reporting and 59% beating consensus EPS by more than one standard deviation [1]. - **Dollar Movement**: The Dollar fell to its lowest level since February 2022 but reversed its trend later in the week. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50–3.75%, citing improvements in growth and labor markets [1]. - **ISM Manufacturing Index**: The ISM manufacturing index reported a strong figure of 52.6, surpassing the median forecast of 48.5 [1]. - **Risk Appetite Indicator**: The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) peaked at 5-year highs two weeks ago, driven by growth optimism, but has since moderated. Key drivers included small-cap stocks, cyclicals, emerging market assets, and Dollar weakness [2]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical tensions have exerted upward pressure on commodities, particularly precious metals, which rallied sharply due to a liquidity squeeze in London [3]. - **Gold/S&P 500 Ratio**: The Gold/S&P 500 ratio increased, indicating a divergence between precious metals and equities, with Gold volatility spiking to levels last seen during the COVID-19 crisis [3][21]. - **Asset Allocation Strategy**: The company remains modestly pro-risk in asset allocation for 2026, despite the elevated risk appetite increasing the potential for volatility. The expectation is for a modest decline in the Dollar this year, particularly against emerging market and cyclical currencies [4]. Additional Important Insights - **Cross-Asset Correlations**: There is a noted negative correlation between the US Dollar and various assets, particularly global equities excluding the US, emerging market equities, and commodities like Gold [3][17]. - **Future Projections**: The commodities team projects a price of $5,400 for Gold by December 2026, with specific hedging strategies recommended in a rising Dollar scenario [9]. - **Market Sentiment**: The report highlights the importance of managing US asset dominance through regional diversification and selective FX hedging [4]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the volatility in the dollar and commodities, particularly precious metals, and the implications for market strategies and asset allocation.

记者丨金珊 李益文 编辑丨江佩霞 2月3日，黄金、白银反弹，现货黄金一度重回4800美元，现货白银日内触及85美元，截至 10:22，黄金、白银涨幅均有所收窄。 虽然金银价格有所反弹，但A股市场黄金概念股开盘仍多数下跌。其中，豫光金铅、四川黄 金、招金黄金、白银有色、盛达资源、中国黄金、湖南白银跌停，值得注意的是，豫光金 铅、盛达资源、招金黄金、四川黄金、白银有色为连续第三日跌停。 港股方面，黄金概念股集体反弹，截至发稿，招金矿业涨近2%，赤峰黄金涨超2%，紫金黄金 国际涨超3%，万国黄金集团涨超4%。 2月3日，国投白银LOF今日复牌再度跌停，报4.25元，最新溢价率为88.94%。国投白银LOF2 日发布公告称，决定参考白银期货国际主要市场的价格变动幅度，对基金资产进行合理重 估；国投瑞银白银LOF2日晚间更新净值后显示，单日净值跌幅达31.5%，创公募基金单日下 跌历史纪录。 国泰海通证券认为，本轮贵金属价格的大幅下跌是对年初以来非理性上涨的技术性调整，而 非黄金长期牛市的终结。短期来看，前期过热投机情绪的降温，以及资金杠杆水平的下降有 助于黄金重回更健康与稳健的上涨趋势。长期来看，在各国信任程度下降的 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry: Precious Metals Core Facts - COMEX gold/silver experienced the largest single-day drop since the 1980s, approximately -10% [1] - ETF trading volume reached a record high, with GLD accounting for 8% of total U.S. ETF trading volume in one day, and open interest in options hitting a historical peak [1] - Shanghai silver futures repeatedly hit the daily limit down, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a 1% reduction in long positions during night trading [1] Interpretation - The decline is attributed not to "macro headwinds" but rather to a "positioning and liquidity" event: - After nine consecutive weeks of increases, gold/silver became a "consensus long," with non-traditional commodity accounts (wealth managers, RIAs, family offices) heavily entering the market [2] - Large short-term sell orders (GLD block) triggered volatility model stop-losses, leading high-frequency market makers to withdraw liquidity, resulting in a negative gamma self-reinforcement [2] - A similar scenario occurred on October 21, where GLD holdings did not decrease, indicating that "true believers" among long positions did not exit; if holdings remain stable, short covering is likely to occur quickly [2] Strategy - For short-term trading, $2400 per ounce is seen as a psychological buffer; if ETF holdings do not continue to decline, a rebound can be anticipated [3] - In the medium term, if the U.S. dollar strengthens due to "Warsh + fiscal expansion," precious metals may lose their beta; a return to the market will depend on a decline in real interest rates or accelerated central bank gold purchases [3]

Market Opening - The A-share market opened with all three major indices rising collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.7% at 4043.91 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.18%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.65% [1] Sector Performance - The storage chip, battery, and photovoltaic equipment sectors opened higher [1] - In contrast, the precious metals, liquor, and oil & gas sectors continued to adjust downwards [1]

Last Friday, the silver market experienced what appeared to be a historic collapse. Price smashed from the $118 area down to the low $70s in a matter of hours, wiping out weeks of gains in a single session.There was no war, no surprise interest-rate hike, no industrial demand shock. Just a sudden, violent move that left traders staring at their screens wondering what happened.Analysts from the Sirius Report summed it up as an impossibility."We called it a ‘10 sigma event,' which is organically an impossibil ...

JPMorgan expects gold prices to hit $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026 – despite bullion suffering its sharpest one-day drop since 1983 on Friday.Gold futures fell 0.9% Monday, continuing its descent following news that President Trump plans to nominate former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve – an expected pick that calmed investor nerves.But JPMorgan expects gold prices to hit $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026 as investors and central banks continue to buy up the safe-haven asset. JP ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as a significant player in the commodities market, with its price surging to $121 in January 2026, reflecting a more than threefold increase over the past year, although it has since retreated to around $79 per ounce, still representing a 120% increase year-over-year [1][4]. Price Movement and Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in silver prices has attracted a diverse group of market participants, including speculators and macro hedgers, leading to a crowded market environment [4]. - There is a notable divide among traders, with some anticipating a price collapse back to $50, while others are bullish, viewing the current price levels as the beginning of a structural repricing [4]. Analyst Predictions - An analyst within the bullish camp suggests that silver could reach $150 per ounce, indicating that the new price floor may have shifted to the mid-$60 to $70 range [5][8]. - Citi's commodities team supports this bullish outlook, arguing that the recent price spike is indicative of a new pricing regime driven by global liquidity, currency concerns, and physical supply tightness [6][7]. Demand and Supply Factors - Increased demand from China is highlighted as a key factor in the current market dynamics, with persistent premiums in Shanghai indicating that traditional supply channels are struggling to meet demand [7]. - Market strategist Jim Wyckoff also supports the view that silver could reach $150 soon, with the new price floor significantly higher than the sub-$20 levels seen in previous years [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article does not provide any specific content or insights regarding companies or industries, thus no core viewpoint can be summarized. Group 1 - No relevant content available for summarization [1][2][3][4]