证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 策略专题研究 哪些领域"反内卷"更值得期待？——2026 年牛市展望系列 3 核心结论：①本次反内卷较 16 年供改背景更复杂，需求端内弱外强，供给 端受制造实力与地方非经济决策驱动。②26 年反内卷仍是经济工作重点，参 考 25 年及 16 年行情经验，反内卷行情或仍有可观上行空间。③政策干预角 度看，关注企业配合度高、地方、落地动力强的行业（如钢铁、油服工程、 水泥等）。④从行业自身周期看，关注供需两旺的景气行业（贵金属、化学 原料等），以及供需格局优化领域（养殖业、能源金属等）。 本轮反内卷背景更复杂，行情节奏相对波折。相较于供改，本轮反内卷再供 需背景上更复杂：需求端看，不同于供给侧结构性改革时期，棚改货币化等 强政策刺激快速拉动总需求，本次内需不足的特征更为突出，但外需支撑或 相对有韧性；供给端看，本次供给扩张与我国制造业实力提升有关，地方政 府"非经济"决策进一步加剧产能过剩。在此背景下，从行业结构看，本轮 呈"涉及面广、新兴行业多、民营企业多"的特点。对应行情节奏看，反内 卷行情相对波折，25 年以来"反内卷"行情呈现"预期发酵-分化降温-二次 升温-震 ...

辽宁能源1月29日公告，预计2025年度归属母公司净利润亏损2.73亿元到4.095亿元，上年同期盈利2.02 亿元。本期业绩预亏主要是受主营业务影响。本次业绩预告期间,受煤炭市场影响，公司主要煤炭产品 冶金煤平均售价同比大幅下降，影响商品煤收入同比大幅减少，致公司业绩同比大幅下滑。 ...

辽宁能源公告称，预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-4.10亿元到-2.73亿元，上年同期为盈 利2.02亿元；扣非净利润为-3.89亿元到-2.59亿元，上年同期为2.50亿元。业绩预亏主要受主营业务影 响，预告期内煤炭市场影响下，公司冶金煤平均售价同比大幅下降，商品煤收入减少，致业绩同比大幅 下滑。 ...

格隆汇1月29日｜盘江股份公告，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为3.18亿元到3.8亿 元，与上年同期相比，将增加2.14亿元到2.76亿元，同比增加205.30%到264.83%；预计2025年度实现归 属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为2.58亿元到3.2亿元，与上年同期相比，将实现扭亏 为盈。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Panjiang Coal and Electricity Co., Ltd. (盘江股份) expects a significant increase in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 318 million to 380 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 205.30% to 264.83% [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 318 million to 380 million yuan [2] - This represents a substantial year-on-year increase of 205.30% to 264.83% [2] Group 2: Operational Factors - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to an increase in both commodity coal production and electricity sold [2] - Cost expenses have decreased year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability [2] - The company's coal mining subsidiary has optimized its mining operations and enhanced washing and processing, leading to better production and a significant reduction in losses [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the announcement is that the company has shown growth in coal production and sales in Q4 2025, with a notable increase in gross profit from external sales [1] - In Q4 2025, the company reported a coal production of 2.5693 million tons, an increase of 1.44% year-on-year [1] - The sales volume in Q4 2025 reached 2.5904 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.15% [1] - The external sales revenue for Q4 2025 was 1.610 billion yuan, up 12.93% compared to the previous year [1] - The gross profit from external sales in Q4 2025 was 684 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 89.90% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - For the entire year of 2025, the total coal production was 10.0879 million tons, which is a 6.78% increase year-on-year [1] - The total sales volume for 2025 was 10.1071 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.99% [1] - The external sales revenue for the year 2025 was 5.472 billion yuan, which represents a decline of 13.61% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit from external sales for the year 2025 was 1.504 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.26% [1] Group 3 - In terms of power generation, the company reported a generation of 2.515 billion kWh in Q4 2025, which is a decrease of 3.75% year-on-year [1] - The total power generation for the year 2025 was 11.863 billion kWh, showing a substantial increase of 82.10% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to the parent company of between 318 million to 380 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 214 million to 276 million yuan, with a growth rate of 205.30% to 264.83% [1] Financial Performance - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 258 million to 320 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [1] - In the same period last year, the net profit was 104 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was a loss of 28 million yuan [1] Operational Factors - The expected performance improvement is primarily due to the company's efforts in increasing production and revenue from its main business, as well as cost reduction measures [1] - There has been an increase in the production of commodity coal and electricity sold to the grid, alongside a decrease in costs, contributing to the overall positive outlook [1] - The operational improvement of subsidiaries has also played a role in reducing losses [1]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 哪些领域"反内卷"更值得期待？——2026 年牛市展望系列 3 策略专题研究 证券分析师：吴信坤 021-61761046 wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn S0980525120001 核心结论：①本次反内卷较 16 年供改背景更复杂，需求端内弱外强，供给 端受制造实力与地方非经济决策驱动。②26 年反内卷仍是经济工作重点，参 考 25 年及 16 年行情经验，反内卷行情或仍有可观上行空间。③政策干预角 度看，关注企业配合度高、地方、落地动力强的行业（如钢铁、油服工程、 水泥等）。④从行业自身周期看，关注供需两旺的景气行业（贵金属、化学 原料等），以及供需格局优化领域（养殖业、能源金属等）。 本轮反内卷背景更复杂，行情节奏相对波折。相较于供改，本轮反内卷再供 需背景上更复杂：需求端看，不同于供给侧结构性改革时期，棚改货币化等 强政策刺激快速拉动总需求，本次内需不足的特征更为突出，但外需支撑或 相对有韧性；供给端看，本次供给扩张与我国制造业实力提升有关，地方政 府"非经济"决策进一步加剧产能过剩。在此背景下，从行业结构看，本轮 呈"涉及面广、新兴行业多、民 ...

(一)主营业务影响:1.医疗服务业务板块亏损因素：公司旗下医院尚处于发展初期，虽然营业收入较上年 同期增长约60%，但营业收入中药品、耗材收入占比较大，药品、耗材无利润，导致医院毛利较低，加 之仍处于市场、口碑培育期，人力成本、折旧等固定成本摊销较高等因素，致医院仍处于亏损阶段。2. 煤炭业务板块亏损因素：(1)安佳矿业2025 年受生产系统设备改造、瓦斯治理工程施工、区域性安全管 理等因素影响有效开采时间，致原煤产量偏低，综合成本偏高。(2)煤炭销售单价下降。(3)根据《企业 会计准则》及公司会计政策的相关规定，基于会计谨慎性原则，审慎反映资产质量，对存在减值迹象的 长期资产进行减值测试，预计计提减值准备。3.化工业务板块：因2025年停产大修致产量减少，收入减 少，大修费用增加，导致桐梓化工净利润同比上期减少。(二)非经营性损益的影响:本报告期非经营性损 益影响主要是取得的政府补助及其他营业外收支净收益348.79万元。 本期业绩预亏的主要原因: 格隆汇1月29日丨赤天化(600227.SH)公布，预计2025 年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为-2.88 亿元到-3.8亿元，与上年同期(法定披露数据 ...

赤天化公告称，预计2025年年度归属于母公司所有者的净利润为 -2.88亿元到 -3.80亿元，将连续亏损。 上年同期净利润为 -8669.35万元。扣非后净利润为 -2.95亿元到 -3.87亿元。医疗服务业务虽营收增约 60%，但药品、耗材无利润且成本高致亏损；煤炭业务因产量低、单价降及计提减值准备亏损；化工业 务因停产大修收入减少、费用增加，净利润同比减少。非经营性损益有净收益348.79万元。 ...