1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of steel products (RB2605, HC2605) are expected to decline first and then rise. The news is relatively bearish for the expected steel costs and prices, while the demand continues to recover but fails to drive the steel prices higher. Instead, the prices decline due to cost expectations. It is recommended to buy for hedging at low prices in the medium - to - long - term [8][30][33]. - The prices of coke and coking coal (J2605, JM2605) are also expected to decline first and then rise. The tension in the news eases, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. After a short - term correction, the prices will maintain an upward trend [9][52]. - The price of iron ore (I2605) will operate weakly in the short term. If the news about the relaxation of the BHP iron ore ban is true, the piled - up iron ore will flow into the market, affecting the price. However, with the recovery of downstream demand, the price may strengthen again after the short - term impact fades [10][11][85]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The spot prices of major rebar markets fluctuated, while those of major hot - rolled coil markets rose slightly. The price of 20mm grade - 3 rebar in major markets changed from - 10 yuan/ton to + 40 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in major markets increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]. - **Blast furnace and crude steel production**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 domestic steel mills has been rising for two consecutive weeks, reaching 86.63% (a 1.10 - percentage - point increase week - on - week). The average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises in mid - March increased by 1.57 tons or 0.78% week - on - week to 202.70 tons [12]. - **Hot metal production and EAF production**: The national average daily hot metal production has been rising for two consecutive weeks, reaching 231.09 tons (a 2.94 - ton or 1.29% increase week - on - week). The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent EAF steel mills has been rising for four consecutive weeks, reaching 58.87% (a 2.30 - percentage - point increase week - on - week) [15]. - **Output and inventory of five major steel products**: The weekly output of rebar from major domestic steel mills decreased by 5.46 tons or 2.69% week - on - week to 197.87 tons, while the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 5.40 tons or 1.80% week - on - week to 305.61 tons. The rebar inventory of major domestic steel mills decreased by 17.04 tons or 7.21% week - on - week to 219.16 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.11 tons or 1.31% week - on - week to 83.85 tons [17]. - **Social inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities decreased by 10.46 tons or 1.60% week - on - week to 642.75 tons, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities decreased by 6.91 tons or 1.84% week - on - week to 369.42 tons [20]. - **Downstream demand**: From January to February, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year; the national automobile production decreased by 9.9% year - on - year; the national metal - cutting machine tool production increased by 4.2% year - on - year; the production of air conditioners, household refrigerators, and household washing machines increased by 0.7%, 6.5%, and - 0.8% year - on - year respectively [20]. - **Apparent consumption and on - disk profit**: The apparent consumption of rebar has been rising for four consecutive weeks, reaching 225.37 tons (an 17.28 - ton or 8.30% increase week - on - week). The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils has been rising for four consecutive weeks, reaching 313.63 tons (a 3.12 - ton or 1.00% increase week - on - week). The on - disk profit of the rebar 2605 contract showed a narrowing loss after three consecutive weeks of expansion, with a week - on - week increase of 0.9 yuan/ton to - 351.2 yuan/ton [24]. - **Spot rebar gross profit per ton**: The loss of the long - process steel mill's spot rebar gross profit per ton narrowed by 4.4 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 77.4 yuan/ton, and the loss of the short - process steel mill's spot rebar gross profit per ton (at flat electricity) narrowed slightly by 1.1 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 96.6 yuan/ton [27]. 3.1.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: The news is relatively bearish for the expected steel costs and prices. The steel prices are expected to decline first and then rise. It is recommended to buy for hedging at low prices in the medium - to - long - term, and the effective time window for selling for hedging may be narrowing [30][33]. - **Basis between spot and futures**: The rebar basis has been narrowing for two consecutive weeks. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 60 - 130 yuan/ton in the future. The hot - rolled coil basis, which was negative, has been narrowing for two consecutive weeks. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of - 40 - 20 yuan/ton in the future [33][34]. 3.2 Coke and Coking Coal 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The spot prices of major coke markets have been stable for three consecutive weeks, while the prices of major coking coal markets have risen significantly. The price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in major markets remained unchanged week - on - week, and the aggregated price of some main coking coal markets increased by 70 - 135 yuan/ton week - on - week [36]. - **Weekly output and capacity utilization of coke**: The average daily coke output of 230 independent coking plants has been rising for three consecutive weeks, reaching 51.41 tons (a 0.65 - ton or 1.28% increase week - on - week). The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants has been rising for three consecutive weeks, reaching 73.70% (a 0.87 - percentage - point increase week - on - week). The average daily coke output of 247 steel enterprises decreased slightly from the high since mid - July last year, reaching 47.28 tons (a 0.03 - ton or 0.06% decrease week - on - week). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased slightly from the high since early August last year, reaching 86.40% (a 0.06 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week) [36]. - **Coke inventory and coking plant profit**: The coke inventory at ports has been rising for two consecutive weeks, reaching 216.11 tons (an 16.98 - ton or 8.53% increase week - on - week). The coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises has been rising for three consecutive weeks, reaching 691.67 tons (a 3.49 - ton or 0.51% increase week - on - week). The coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants has been decreasing for three consecutive weeks, reaching 49.78 tons (a 2.67 - ton or 5.09% decrease week - on - week). The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises has been profitable for two consecutive weeks but narrowed in the recent week, with a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan to 21 yuan [40]. - **Weekly output, operating rate, and inventory of sample mines**: The average daily output of clean coal from 523 sample mines decreased from the high since late May last year, reaching 78.60 tons (a 1.21 - ton or 1.52% decrease week - on - week). The operating rate of 523 sample mines has been rising for five consecutive weeks from the record low since January 2021, reaching 89.16% (a 0.57 - percentage - point increase week - on - week). The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines has been decreasing significantly for three consecutive weeks, reaching 222.83 tons (a 31.26 - ton or 12.30% decrease week - on - week). The raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has been decreasing for three consecutive weeks, reaching 523.02 tons (a 13.63 - ton or 2.54% decrease week - on - week) [45]. - **Monthly import and weekly inventory of coking coal**: From January to February, China's coking coal imports were 1982.69 tons, a 5.21% increase year - on - year (the growth rate narrowed by 12.37 percentage points compared with January, and it decreased by 2.66% last year). The coking coal inventory at ports increased week - on - week, reaching 269.44 tons (a 4.49 - ton or 1.69% increase week - on - week). The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has been rising significantly for three consecutive weeks from the low since mid - September last year, reaching 885.54 tons (a 38.36 - ton or 4.53% increase week - on - week). The coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased week - on - week, reaching 782.41 tons (an 8.48 - ton or 1.10% increase week - on - week) [48]. - **Monthly output of raw coal and coke**: From January to February, China's raw coal output was 7.63 billion tons, a 0.32% decrease year - on - year (it increased by 1.53% from January to December last year). China's coke output was 8254.6 tons, a 0.79% increase year - on - year (the growth rate narrowed by 2.24 percentage points compared with January - December last year) [48]. 3.2.2 Conclusions and Recommendations The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to decline first and then rise. Their fundamentals are relatively stable, and after a short - term correction, the prices will maintain an upward trend [52]. 3.3 Iron Ore 3.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price and spread**: As of March 26, the 62% Platts iron ore index rebounded slightly, reaching 108.50 US dollars/ton (a 0.10 - US - dollar or 0.09% increase week - on - week). As of March 27, the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port decreased slightly, reaching 789 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan or 1.13% decrease week - on - week). Among high - grade ores, the spread between 65% Carajas fines and PB fines widened (a 4 - yuan increase week - on - week to 161 yuan/ton), and the spread between 62.5% PB lumps and PB fines widened (a 1 - yuan increase week - on - week to 108 yuan/ton). Among low - grade ores, the spread between 60.5% Jimblebar fines and PB fines narrowed (a 2 - yuan increase week - on - week to - 48 yuan/ton), and the spread between 56.5% Super Special fines and PB fines narrowed (a 4 - yuan increase week - on - week to - 119 yuan/ton) [53]. - **Inventory and port clearance volume**: In the week of March 27, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports decreased for two consecutive weeks, reaching 170 million tons (a 98.09 - ton decrease week - on - week). The average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased (a 7.80 - ton decrease week - on - week to 313.17 tons). The available days of imported ore inventory for steel mills increased by 2 days week - on - week to 23 days. The sintered powder ore inventory of imported ore for 64 sample steel mills increased for two consecutive weeks, reaching 1352.83 tons (a 40.68 - ton or 3.10% increase week - on - week). The sintered powder ore inventory of domestic ore for 64 sample steel mills also increased for two consecutive weeks, reaching 78.27 tons (a 0.28 - ton or 0.36% increase week - on - week) [59]. - **Shipping and arrival**: In the week of March 20, the iron ore shipping volume from Australia (19 ports) was 1909.4 tons, an increase of 96.3 tons from the previous week. The volume shipped from Australia to China was 1548.6 tons, an increase of 20.5 tons from the previous week. The shipping volume from Brazil was 548.9 tons, a decrease of 22.7 tons from the previous week. The iron ore arrival volume at 45 ports was 2271.6 tons, an increase of 56.6 tons from the previous week, at a relatively low - to - medium level. The cumulative shipping volume from Australia and Brazil in the past four weeks was 9729.8 tons, an increase of 635.8 tons or 6.99% compared with the previous four weeks. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival volume is expected to be low first and then high in the near future [63]. - **Domestic ore output and operation**: From January to February 2026, the domestic iron ore output was 16164.4 tons, a 2.08% increase year - on - year (after adjustment), and the growth rate expanded significantly by 7.67 percentage points compared with January - December 2025. As of March 27, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises decreased (a 0.39 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week to 60.42%). Affected by internal factors of individual mining groups, the planned output of iron concentrate powder of their affiliated mines was reduced, and the overall output decreased significantly, mainly concentrated in East China. With the resumption of production of previously shut - down mine concentrators and the potential increase in output of individual mines in North China and Northeast China, the overall iron concentrate powder output is expected to increase slightly in the future [68]. - **Port trading volume and hot metal cost**: As of March 26, the 5 - day moving average of the iron ore trading volume at major ports rebounded, reaching 69.64 tons (a 10.32 - ton or 17.41% increase week - on - week). In the week of March 27, the average tax - free hot metal cost of 64 sample steel mills remained unchanged from the previous week, at 2350 yuan/ton [70]. - **Average daily hot metal output, blast furnace operating rate, and capacity utilization**: As of March 27, the average daily hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 231.09 tons, an increase of 2.94 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 6.19 tons year - on - year. After the Two Sessions, the blast furnace resumption progress met expectations. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 2.45 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate was 81.03%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 1.08 percentage points year - on - year. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 43.29%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points year - on - year. Overall, the hot metal output continued to rise, and the downstream demand also showed a warming trend. With good current enterprise profits, the hot metal output is expected to further recover driven by profits and downstream demand [73]. - **Output and inventory of five major steel products**: In the week of March 27, the actual weekly output of five major steel products decreased slightly, reaching 839.58 tons (a 0.24 - ton decrease week - on - week). In terms of apparent demand, the consumption of five major products increased again, reaching 887.97 tons (a 19

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market experienced a high - opening and low - closing trend with a decline on the day. The previous increase was due to the energy substitution logic after the escalation of the Middle - East situation. Currently, the inventory is sinking, and the steel mill's production is gradually increasing. The price decline today is a correction after the previous over - increase due to sentiment. With the recovery of downstream and terminal, the market may fluctuate after the end of the conflict, but the downside space is expected to be limited [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Coking coal opened high and closed low, with a decline during the day. Domestic mine production has recovered smoothly, with the current domestic mine operation rate reaching 89.16%, a 0.57% increase from last week. The refined coal output decreased month - on - month, but the downstream sales were smooth. After the coke price increase, coke enterprises actively purchased. The mine inventory decreased by 31.26 tons month - on - month, while the downstream coke enterprises and steel mills' inventories increased by 42.51 tons and 8.48 tons respectively. The downstream started the inventory accumulation mode, and the coking coal inventory began to be transferred downwards. The coke production increased month - on - month, the steel mill's profitability recovered, and the operation rate increased by 1.25%. The weekly daily output of molten iron was 231.09 tons. The steel mills under production restrictions gradually resumed production. The first - round coke price increase started last Friday, and more regions started to increase the price this week with an expected implementation [1] Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 coking raw coal was 1,170 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu was reported at 1,360 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract was 1,219 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 141 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan increase from the previous trading day [2] Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From March 21st to March 27th, the operation rate of 523 sample domestic mines for coking coal was 89.16%, a 0.57 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 78.6 tons, a 1.21 - ton decrease month - on - month [4] Demand Data - From March 21st to March 27th, the daily average output of downstream independent coke enterprises was 64.76 tons, a 0.52 - ton increase month - on - month. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.28 tons, a 0.03 - ton decrease month - on - month. The daily average output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 231.09 tons, a 2.94 - ton increase month - on - month [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the gains of coking coal and coke mainly occurred on Monday, and the following four trading days showed weak fluctuations, erasing most of the previous gains. Geopolitical news disturbed the market amplitude, and the fundamentals limited the price elasticity [7]. - In the short - term, the market focuses on geopolitical conflicts, and the market performance is anxious. Before the geopolitical situation becomes clear, the market will mainly fluctuate. The coke market follows the coking coal market, but with slightly weaker elasticity [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Report Summary - Indonesia may consider relaxing coal production quota restrictions if the thermal coal price remains high. The coal production quota is cut from about 790 million tons last year to 600 million tons this year, and there is no plan to levy a windfall tax on coal exports on April 1st [5]. - Due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the Philippines has declared a state of emergency, shifted its power generation focus to coal, and plans to increase coal imports from Indonesia. The coal export volume from Indonesia to the Philippines is expected to increase from 38.5 million tons last year to 45 million tons in 2026. Japan will also increase coal - fired power generation [5]. - The supply of coking coal is slightly loose, and the inventory structure is temporarily stable. Independent coking enterprises and steel mills have slightly replenished their coking coal inventories. Coke production remains stable. The pig iron output and coke consumption have increased simultaneously. The new round of coke price increase has been postponed [5][6]. Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Coking coal inventory is stable, and the inventory accumulation pressure has improved compared with the same period last year. Geopolitical conflicts have stimulated oil prices to rise, strengthening the substitution effect of coal. After the Two Sessions, the pig iron output has increased, leading to higher coke demand, and independent coking enterprises have replenished their inventories [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The recovery of domestic mine production and high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance have made the supply side slightly loose. Steel mills have weak replenishment momentum [11]. Data Analysis - **Coking Coal Supply**: As of the week of March 27, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 89.16%, a 0.57% increase from the previous period, with a daily average output of 786,000 tons, a decrease of 12,100 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 34.78%, a 1.77% increase from the previous period, with a daily average output of 258,900 tons, an increase of 15,800 tons. As of March 21, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1.09404 million tons. The supply side is slightly loose [13]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of the week of March 27, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.2283 million tons, a decrease of 312,600 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 3.4918 million tons, a 166,700 - ton increase; the port coking coal inventory was 2.6944 million tons, a 44,900 - ton increase. The overall inventory is stable, and the inventory accumulation pressure has improved compared with last year [15]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises' Coking Coal Inventory**: As of March 27, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 10.4754 million tons, an increase of 425,100 tons. The inventory available days were 12.16 days, an increase of 0.4 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 900,500 tons, a decrease of 41,800 tons [18]. - **Steel Mills' Raw Material Inventory**: As of March 27, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.8241 million tons, an increase of 84,800 tons. The inventory available days were 12.44 days, an increase of 0.14 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.9167 million tons, an increase of 34,900 tons compared with the previous period, and the available days were 12.75 days, an increase of 0.01 days compared with the previous period [22]. - **Coke Production**: As of March 27, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 74.86%, a 0.55% increase from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 647,600 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons compared with the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.4%, a 0.06% decrease from the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 472,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with the previous period. Coke production remains stable [24]. - **Pig Iron Output and Coke Consumption**: As of the week of March 27, China's coke consumption was 1.0399 million tons, an increase of 13,200 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.3109 million tons, an increase of 29,400 tons. The recovery of pig iron output has driven up coke consumption [26]. - **New Round of Coke Price Increase**: As of March 27, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 21 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, and the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 43.29%, an increase of 0.87% compared with the previous period. The new round of coke price increase, originally scheduled to be implemented on March 25, has been postponed to April 1. In the case of low demand expectations, the game between steel and coke enterprises has intensified [28]. - **Double - Coking Futures - Spot Basis Structure**: The double - coking market fluctuated strongly, and the coke market was priced with the expectation of a price increase [30]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: There are differences between the US and Iran regarding "peace talks." The US claims that the negotiation is progressing and tries to promote official negotiation, while Iran completely denies the existence of the negotiation and refuses the US - led negotiation arrangement. The US puts forward unequal cease - fire conditions, and Iran refuses these conditions and adheres to independently deciding the cease - fire process [32]. Future Outlook - **Coking Coal**: The supply side is slightly loose, and the inventory is stable. The energy premium has decreased, but the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has boosted coal demand. Before the geopolitical situation becomes clear, the market will mainly fluctuate [34]. - **Coke**: Coke production remains stable. The increase in pig iron output has driven up coke consumption. The new round of price increase has been postponed, and the game between steel and coke enterprises has intensified. The coke market follows the coking coal market, but with slightly weaker elasticity [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the coal sector, indicating a leading performance compared to the market [5]. Core Insights - The coal import volume for January-February 2026 was 0.77 billion tons, with a cumulative growth rate of 1.5%. January saw a year-on-year increase of 10.82% but a month-on-month decrease of 21.02%. February experienced a year-on-year decrease of 9.95% and a month-on-month decrease of 33.15% [5]. - The average import price of coal for January-February 2026 was $75 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.58%. The prices for January and February were $76 and $73 per ton, respectively, showing a downward trend compared to the previous year [5]. - Indonesia's unexpected production cuts are likely to significantly reduce low-calorie coal imports to China, as the country has begun to implement measures that exceed market expectations [6]. - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran is expected to benefit high-calorie coal and coal chemical demand, potentially leading to increased prices for related products [7]. Summary by Sections Import Data Analysis - In January-February 2026, coal imports increased slightly, with a total of 0.77 billion tons imported. The growth rate was 1.5%, with January showing a 10.82% year-on-year increase and February a 9.95% year-on-year decrease [5]. - The average import price for coal was $75 per ton, with January's price at $76 and February's at $73, indicating a decline compared to the previous year [5]. Market Dynamics - Indonesia's production cuts are expected to lead to a significant reduction in low-calorie coal exports to China, as the country has implemented measures that exceed market expectations [6]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, is likely to create a favorable environment for high-calorie coal and coal chemical products, potentially increasing domestic demand and prices [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Guanghui Energy, which are well-positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics. Other companies with strong investment value include Jinneng Holding, Huayang Co., and Shanxi Coal International [7].

- Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model; Model Construction Idea: The model tracks the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days to identify stocks that are hitting new highs; Model Construction Process: The formula used is $ 250 \text{ Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance is 0; if it falls back, the distance is positive, indicating the extent of the fallback[11][12][13]; Model Evaluation: This model is effective in identifying stocks that are leading the market and can be used to track market trends and hotspots[11][19] - Factor Name: Stable New High Stocks; Factor Construction Idea: The factor focuses on stocks that have not only hit new highs but also exhibit stable price paths and strong momentum; Factor Construction Process: The selection criteria include analyst attention (at least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 3 months), relative stock strength (top 20% in market performance over the past 250 days), price stability (using metrics like the sum of absolute daily returns over the past 120 days), and trend continuation (average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days). The top 50% of stocks based on these criteria are selected[26][29][30]; Factor Evaluation: This factor is designed to capture stocks with strong and stable momentum, which are less likely to experience sudden drops and more likely to continue their upward trend[26][29] Model Backtest Results - 250-Day New High Distance Model, Shanghai Composite Index: 6.43%, Shenzhen Component Index: 5.13%, CSI 300: 6.01%, CSI 500: 10.64%, CSI 1000: 9.51%, CSI 2000: 9.52%, ChiNext Index: 2.73%, STAR 50 Index: 16.40%[12][34] Factor Backtest Results - Stable New High Stocks, Number of Stocks: 14, including companies like Asia Integration, Biwin Storage, Salt Lake Shares, etc.; Sector Distribution: Most stocks are from cyclical and technology sectors, with 6 stocks each. In the cyclical sector, the most new highs are in the basic chemical industry; in the technology sector, the most new highs are in the electronics industry[30][33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to the coal and equipment manufacturing sectors, with a 47.31% year-on-year decline in non-recurring net profit to 1.289 billion yuan in 2025. The coal production segment's revenue decreased by 26.30% due to falling coal prices and production plan adjustments, while the equipment manufacturing segment saw a 5.84% revenue decline due to stricter capital expenditure controls from downstream customers and increased market competition [3] - The acceleration of intelligent coal mine construction provides a core driver for the company's long-term growth. Despite short-term pressure on contract liabilities, the trend towards automation and intelligent technology in the industry is supported by national policies. The company leads over 60% of intelligent working face construction in the country and possesses core technologies and equipment advantages in intelligent mining and tunneling [3] - The company has a high net cash position of approximately 20.2 billion yuan, a high dividend payout ratio of 50.74%, and a low valuation with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.96, indicating significant investment value. The proposed cash dividend of 3.00 yuan per 10 shares translates to a dividend yield of 5.06% based on the closing price on March 26 [3] - Earnings forecasts suggest that the company will maintain stable operating performance, with projected net profits for 2026-2028 being 2.654 billion yuan, 2.784 billion yuan, and 3.003 billion yuan respectively. The company is expected to have substantial valuation recovery potential due to its high net cash levels and dividend policy [3] Financial Summary - In 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 29.242 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.21% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.447 billion yuan, down 6.67% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit dropped significantly by 47.31% to 1.289 billion yuan [3][5] - The projected total revenue for 2026 is 33.811 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.654 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% increase [5] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 25.6% in 2025 to 32.2% in 2026, while the return on equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize around 9.9% for 2026-2027 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is still at the bottom, but the decline trend is slowing down; the steel consumption in the automotive industry has declined for two consecutive months; infrastructure investment is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The iron ore market is driven by events, with a "near - strong, far - weak" fundamental characteristic. Prices are supported by costs and tight spot supplies but are suppressed by medium - to - long - term demand and supply increase expectations [26] - The coking coal and coke market fluctuates with energy expectations. The price increase is due to thermal coal expectations rather than its own fundamentals, and it is difficult to continue rising away from fundamentals [44] - The ferroalloy market has strong cost support at the bottom. The production of ferrosilicon is increasing, while silicomanganese maintains low production. The inventory of silicomanganese is at a historical high, and there is great pressure to reduce inventory [58] - The soda ash market has high daily production and continuous supply pressure. The rigid demand is currently stable and weak, and the inventory performance is better than expected. The price increase space is limited, and the downward space needs inventory accumulation to open [71] - The glass market has a continued cold - repair expectation, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. The high inventory in the middle reaches and the expected return of supply limit the price increase, and the demand needs to be verified [96] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Macro Data** - From January to February, the new construction area of real estate was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The single - month steel consumption from January to February was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years, but the decline trend is stabilizing [4] - From January to February, the automobile production was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. In January, the single - month steel consumption was 1.01577 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. In February, the single - month steel consumption was 881,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6% [6] - In February, the completed infrastructure investment increased by 9.76% year - on - year. The steel consumption for railways and airports was 271,600 tons and 29,970 tons respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 0% and 31.1% [8] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3173, 3124, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3311, 3299, and 3310 yuan/ton respectively [11] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also showed certain changes on March 27, 2026 [16] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis** - The iron ore market is event - driven, with a complex mix of long and short factors. The macro internal and external demand momentum is weak, the supply and shipment are marginally recovering, and the rising fuel cost provides support. The resumption of production by steel mills drives the increase in hot metal production, and the structural shortage of port inventory is the core driver. The fundamentals show a "near - strong, far - weak" characteristic [26] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 769.5, 812, and 788 yuan/ton respectively [27][31] - The basis and spot prices of different iron ore varieties also changed [31] - **Fundamental Data** - On March 27, 2026, the daily average hot metal production was 231,090 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 3.1317 million tons, the apparent demand for five major steel products was 8.88 million tons, etc. [39] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis** - The coking coal and coke market fluctuates with energy expectations. The price increase is due to thermal coal expectations rather than its own fundamentals. Domestic production is increasing, inventory is close to the same - period level, hot metal production and steel mill profits are lower than in previous years, and there is great inventory pressure at the Mongolian coal port. It is difficult for prices to continue rising away from fundamentals [44] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the price differences between different coking coal and coke contracts, as well as the spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions, showed certain changes [45][46][47] Ferroalloy - **Market Analysis** - The ferroalloy market has strong cost support at the bottom. The Australian hurricane has disrupted the shipment of manganese ore. The price - holding by miners and the strengthening of coking coal provide bottom support. The production of ferrosilicon is increasing, while silicomanganese maintains low production. The inventory of silicomanganese is at a historical high, and there is great pressure to reduce inventory [58] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the basis, price differences between contracts, and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed certain changes [59][61][63] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - The soda ash market has high daily production and continuous supply pressure. The rigid demand is currently stable and weak, but there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The inventory performance is better than expected. If the futures price rises, there is a certain restocking space for middle - stream players such as those in the futures - cash market, but the price increase space is limited due to limited demand elasticity. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open [71] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1229, 1310, and 1360 yuan/ton respectively, and the price differences between contracts also changed [72][75] Glass - **Market Analysis** - The glass market has a continued cold - repair expectation, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. The high inventory in the middle reaches is a risk concern. The expected return of supply and the high middle - stream inventory limit the price increase, and the demand needs to be verified [96] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1041, 1179, and 1273 yuan/ton respectively, and the price differences between contracts and the basis also changed [97]

Report Title - "Double Coking Coal and Coke: Geopolitical Disturbance Blunted, Focus on Substantive Fundamental Changes" [1] Core Viewpoint - The report is mainly about the fundamental situation of double coking coal and coke in April 2026, including price trends, production, imports, and inventory, but does not explicitly state a core view [12] Fundamental Situation Price Trends - The report presents multiple price trend charts, including those of coking coal (such as coking coal price index, medium - sulfur primary coking coal price, Mongolian 5 coking coal, etc.) and coke (such as coke price index, quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price, etc.) from 2021 to 2026 [18][28] Production - National and Shanxi's raw coal and coking fine coal production data from 2021 - 2025 are shown, along with the capacity utilization rate and raw coal inventory of coking coal mines [52][58] Imports - In February 2026, China imported a total of 19.83 million tons of coking coal, a 5.2% year - on - year increase. Mongolia was the largest source, with 11.07 million tons (55.8%), a 71.8% year - on - year increase. Russia, Canada, the US, Australia, Indonesia, and others also had respective import volumes and changes [60] Inventory - As of March 27, 2026, the total coking coal inventory (converted to fine coal) was 38.207 million tons, an increase of 82,960 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 426,000 tons year - on - year. The total coke inventory was 10.712 million tons, an increase of 26,590 tons month - on - month and an increase of 11,100 tons year - on - year [104] Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The report does not provide specific future outlook and strategy recommendation content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The night - session of coking coal and coke futures showed a weak trend yesterday, with a slight increase in total positions. This week's data from Mysteel indicates that the total output of the five major steel products remained basically flat week - on - week, the total inventory continued to decline (mainly due to rebar), and the total apparent demand continued to increase. The hot metal output of sample steel mills and the profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly week - on - week, and the rigid demand for coking coal and coke continued to recover. Geopolitical conflicts have led to concerns about tightened oil supply, which may indirectly affect the coking coal market with energy attributes, and the substitution effect of coal in the coal - chemical industry is expected to expand the demand for coking coal. Future attention should be paid to changes in hot metal output, mine operation schedules, and geopolitical developments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Price and Trading Volume - **Closing Prices**: The closing prices of coking coal and coke futures contracts on the previous day were 1562.0, 1230.0, 1368.5, 1931.0, 1761.0, and 1846.0 respectively, showing decreases compared to the day before, with declines ranging from - 0.60% to - 1.48% [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of different contracts were 5767, 768756, 185491, 66, 14658, and 2664 respectively [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interests were 26012, 383197, 199568, etc., with changes of 715, 492, 11465, etc. [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and their changes were also presented, such as the 1 - 5 month spread having a present value of 240 and an increase of 306 [2]. Spot Price - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke, including Mongolian No. 5 coking coal, low - sulfur coking coal, and different grades of coke, were provided. For example, the port self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1308, and some prices had slight increases [2]. Market News - On March 26, the State Administration for Market Regulation held the first enterprise fair competition symposium in 2026, aiming to standardize enterprise competition behavior and build a benign competition ecosystem for enterprises going global. The deputy director emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision, guiding enterprise compliance, and supporting enterprises to expand international markets [2].

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots, with a focus on the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies [1][4] - As of March 27, 2026, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index at 6.43%, Shenzhen Component Index at 5.13%, CSI 300 at 6.01%, CSI 500 at 10.64%, CSI 1000 at 9.51%, CSI 2000 at 9.52%, ChiNext Index at 2.73%, and STAR 50 Index at 16.40% [5][25] - Among the CITIC first-level industry indices, the sectors closest to their 250-day new highs include Power and Utilities, Power Equipment and New Energy, Coal, Communication, and Oil and Petrochemicals, while Food and Beverage, Retail, Comprehensive Finance, Non-Bank Finance, and Real Estate are further away [8][25] Group 2 - A total of 961 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest numbers in Power Equipment and New Energy, Basic Chemicals, and Machinery sectors [2][26] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the Oil and Petrochemicals, Coal, and Power and Utilities sectors, with respective proportions of 66.67%, 55.56%, and 48.26% [13][26] - The distribution of new high stocks by sector shows that the Cycle and Technology sectors have the most stocks reaching new highs, with 354 and 297 stocks respectively [14][26] Group 3 - The report identifies 14 stocks that have shown stable new highs, including Yaxiang Integration, Baiwei Storage, and Salt Lake Co., with the majority coming from the Cycle and Technology sectors [3][20] - The selection criteria for stable new high stocks include analyst attention, relative strength of stock prices, price path stability, and continuity of new highs [19][23] - The most represented industries among the stable new high stocks are Basic Chemicals in the Cycle sector and Electronics in the Technology sector [20][26]