Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on various steel-based household appliances, effective June 23, 2025, impacting products like dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators [1] - Eight categories of household appliances and related products are now classified as "steel derivative products," subject to the new tariff based on the value of steel components [1] - An exception is provided for products using domestically sourced steel, which can qualify for tax exemption even if processed overseas [1] Group 2 - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, China is expected to export 110.716 million tons of steel in 2024, a 22.7% increase year-on-year, with only about 890,000 tons (0.8% of total exports) going to the U.S., indicating limited direct impact from the tariffs [2] - The Chinese government criticized the U.S. tariff policy as unilateral and protectionist, arguing it disrupts global supply chains and has faced opposition from multiple countries [2] - The U.S. has a history of imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum, with a previous 25% tariff on steel and 10% on aluminum introduced in 2018, which was later adjusted under domestic pressures [2][3] Group 3 - The expansion of tariffs to include steel-based household appliances is likely to increase the cost of living for American consumers [4]

Group 1 - Vietnam faces a critical deadline on July 9, 2025, where failure to reach an agreement with the U.S. could result in a 46% tariff on key exports such as textiles and electronics [1] - The negotiations are influenced by U.S. efforts to disrupt Chinese supply chains, compelling Vietnam to sign agreements that would reduce tariffs to 20%-25% in exchange for blocking Chinese transshipment [1][3] - In 2024, 12% of Vietnam's $123.5 billion trade surplus with the U.S. was derived from goods that were transshipped from China, indicating a significant reliance on this trade route [1] Group 2 - The U.S. has implemented strict measures, including requiring Vietnam's customs system to connect to the U.S. traceability database, which tracks sensitive goods from raw materials to finished products [3] - Vietnam has imposed anti-dumping duties of 19.38%-27.83% on Chinese steel, effectively severing the transshipment channel [3] - New regulations require that at least 55% of the value of products must be added locally in Vietnam to qualify for lower tariffs, posing challenges for manufacturers who primarily rely on Chinese components [3][5] Group 3 - Vietnam is attempting to balance its economic ties with China while enhancing its relationship with the U.S., a strategy referred to as "bamboo diplomacy" [5] - Following the signing of agreements, the U.S. unexpectedly raised tariffs on Vietnamese steel to 50%, leading to significant order cancellations for local aluminum companies [5] - The textile industry in Vietnam is heavily dependent on Chinese materials, with 60% of fabrics sourced from China, making it difficult to comply with new regulations [5] Group 4 - Chinese companies are adapting by establishing production facilities in Vietnam while retaining core technology in China, indicating a shift in the supply chain dynamics [7] - The construction of the China-Laos railway and the development of the Lancang-Mekong economic belt are efforts to bypass U.S. maritime blockades [8] - Southeast Asian countries are responding to U.S. pressures by tightening customs regulations, impacting companies like Apple, which plans to relocate a significant portion of its production out of Vietnam [8] Group 5 - The overall impact of these trade tensions is detrimental to all parties involved, with Vietnamese manufacturers struggling to maintain profitability under the new tariff regime [10] - U.S. companies, including Nike and Apple, are warning that increased costs will ultimately be borne by American consumers [10] - The complexities of global supply chains mean that tariffs may not effectively block goods, as companies find ways to navigate through technology and market strategies [12]

摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 0.44%。 基本面：据中钢协数据，6 月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业 共生产粗钢 2159 万吨，平均日产 215.9 万吨，日产环比增 长 3.2%。据我的钢铁网数据，247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.41%， 环比减少 0.15%，同比增加 1.36%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.58%，环比减少 0.07%，同比增加 1.05%；钢厂盈利率 58.44%，环比减少 0.43%，同比增加 8.66%；日均铁水产量 241.61 万吨，环比减少 0.19 万吨。 后市展望：上周螺纹钢产量、厂库连续第三周减少，社 库连续第十四周减少，表需连续第二周减少。目前进入需求 淡季，钢材供需双双走弱，钢价中期预计以震荡为主。 交易策略：建议观望 螺纹周报 研究报告 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 16 日星期一 据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观 ...

Economic Overview - Japan's economy contracted in the first quarter, with GDP declining at an annualized rate of 0.2%, lower than the previously estimated 0.7% [1] - Personal consumption grew by 0.1%, while corporate spending increased by 1.1%. Inventory contributed 0.6 percentage points to growth, but net exports detracted 0.8 percentage points [1] - The outlook remains pessimistic, with expectations of stagnant GDP growth in the second quarter due to global economic slowdown and uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs [1] U.S.-Japan Tariff Negotiations - The fifth round of U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations ended without consensus, focusing on trade expansion, non-tariff measures, and economic security cooperation [3] - Japan's stance remains firm against tariffs, which have significantly impacted its economy, particularly in the automotive and steel sectors [3] - Expectations suggest that the U.S. may withdraw the 24% "reciprocal tariff" but retain around 10% additional tariffs on strategic products [3] Trade Relations and Cooperation - Japan is willing to collaborate with the U.S. in shipbuilding technology and liquefied natural gas development, aiming to address trade deficits [4] - Proposals include enhancing mutual certification for automotive exports and promoting Japanese brand vehicles produced in the U.S. for third-country markets [4] - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. is projected to reach approximately 9 trillion yen in fiscal year 2024, with both exports and imports hitting record highs [4] Japanese Bond Market Volatility - Recent fluctuations in the Japanese bond market have drawn attention, with significant declines in auction results for long-term bonds [5] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 20-year bond auction fell to 2.5, the lowest in 38 years, indicating weak demand [5] - Concerns over the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hikes and fiscal stability ahead of the July elections contribute to market volatility [6] Future Outlook for Bonds - The rise in long-term bond yields reflects various factors, including speculation about interest rate changes and concerns over fiscal stability [6] - The Bank of Japan is gradually reducing its bond purchases, which may increase supply in the market and affect bond prices [6] - The government is reportedly considering lowering the issuance of long-term bonds in response to market fluctuations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Multiple international investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, expecting trade competitiveness to support the long - term strength of the RMB. The Chinese market and assets are more attractive to global investors due to positive economic growth expectations, improved corporate profit prospects, and relatively low valuations [3][16]. - In the commodity market, some varieties have shown significant price movements. For example, domestic silver futures have reached a record high, and international oil prices have risen due to multiple factors. There are also changes in the supply and demand of various commodities and policies related to their trade [6][11]. - In the bond market, the central bank's actions have stabilized market expectations, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declining, and there are expectations for future market trends such as potential secondary buy - back operations and possible reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the third quarter [24]. - In the stock market, A - shares are recommended to focus on corporate fundamentals from June to August, and allocate in specific sectors. The Hong Kong stock market is expected to have repair momentum in the long - term. The IPO market in A - shares and the performance of new stocks have shown certain trends, and the market is paying attention to the value re - evaluation of central state - owned enterprises [33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a constant - price quarterly year - on - year rate of 5.4%, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 49.5%, up from the previous month but the same as the same period last year. Other economic indicators such as inflation, investment, and trade also showed various trends [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Cast aluminum alloy futures and options will be listed on June 10, 2025. From January to April, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.2% year - on - year, with significant growth in equipment and raw material manufacturing. China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3285.3 billion at the end of May, rising for five consecutive months [2]. - Multiple well - known foreign institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth rate and stock index target points. On June 6, 2025, global central banks initiated an interest - rate cut wave, including the European Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of India, and the Central Bank of Russia [3][4][5]. 3.2.2 Metals - Since June, domestic silver futures prices have continued to rise, with the main July contract hitting a record high. China increased its gold reserves in May, with the gold reserve reaching 73.83 million ounces at the end of May, rising for seven consecutive months [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Coking enterprises plan to increase production cuts to 30% to stabilize coke prices. Fitch believes that producers with many facilities in Canada, Mexico, and Europe will be most affected by the tariff increase on steel and aluminum [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The development project of the Kenli 10 - 2 oilfield group in the Bohai Sea is progressing. International oil prices have risen due to multiple factors. South Korea is considering participating in an LNG project in Alaska, USA [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China has allowed the import of Uruguayan soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and Danish barley. Japan is considering releasing reserve rice to deal with high rice prices and shortages. Malaysia's palm oil production in May is estimated to increase by 3.07% [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 6, the central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 156.1 billion yuan on that day. A total of 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature this week [15]. 3.3.2 Key News - Multiple international investment banks have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth rate in 2025. China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves increased in May. Infrastructure investment has been positive this year, but the momentum for expanding effective investment needs to be fully released [16][17]. - Many policies and regulations are being promoted, such as the review of rare - earth export control applications, the legislative work plan of the Ministry of Finance, and the public consultation on the management of seriously untrustworthy subject lists [18][19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, and treasury bond futures rose. The bond ETF market has reached a new high, and the issuance of public funds last week was mainly bond - type funds [24][20]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1847 on June 9, down 9 points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index rose 0.47% [29]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Yangtze River Fixed Income suggests a defensive coupon strategy for credit bonds in mid - and early June. CICC Fixed Income expects the primary supply of asset - backed securities to continue to grow. Guosheng Fixed Income believes that the repurchase operation can stabilize market expectations [30]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - In the first trading week of June, A - share indexes fluctuated upward. It is recommended to focus on corporate fundamentals from June to August and allocate in specific sectors. The Hong Kong stock market is expected to have repair momentum in the long - term [33]. - Many mainland enterprises have gone public in Hong Kong this year, and the number of new - share subscribers and the success rate in new - share subscriptions have increased. The A - share IPO market showed signs of warming in May [33][34].

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's decision to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, aiming to address the decline of the U.S. shipbuilding industry and regain maritime power [1][4] - It highlights that over 70% of new shipbuilding orders in 2022 were secured by China, with Chinese shipyards dominating 14 out of 18 major ship types globally, and accounting for 55% of the world's shipbuilding completion [1][3] - The U.S. shipbuilding industry is struggling, with its commercial ship production expected to account for only 0.1% of global output by 2024, despite previous government subsidies aimed at revitalizing the sector [3][4] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that steel and aluminum are critical to shipbuilding, with steel costs representing approximately 30% of the total cost of a commercial ship, suggesting that increased tariffs could significantly boost domestic steel production [4][8] - It notes that the U.S. government has previously attempted to attract foreign shipbuilding companies to establish operations in the U.S., but these efforts have largely failed, leaving American shipbuilders unable to compete with their foreign counterparts [3][6] - The article illustrates a specific case involving Nippon Steel's attempt to acquire U.S. Steel, which was blocked by the U.S. government, highlighting the challenges faced by American steel companies in the current market [6][8]

双方将重点就以下议题交换意见：推动乌克兰局势缓和与和平进程、北约在当前国际安全形势下的应对 方式以及美欧之间持续存在的贸易摩擦问题，特别是美国近期提出的提高钢铁与铝产品关税事宜。6月4 日，美国进口钢铝关税从25%提高至50%的政策正式生效。 据了解，这是默茨自5月6日就任德国总理以来首次与特朗普面对面会晤。 两人曾在数年前于纽约有过一次短暂接触。为筹备本次访问，德国外交部长约翰.瓦德富尔已于上周提 前抵达华盛顿，与美国国务卿马尔科.鲁比奥进行会谈。 消息面上，当地时间4日，欧盟贸易专员塞夫科维奇表示，当天与美国贸易代表格里尔进行了建设性会 谈。 关于特朗普政府关税谈判问题，塞夫科维奇称，双方正在朝着正确的方向稳步推进。 当地时间6月2日，欧盟委员会新闻发言人表示，欧盟对美国宣布将钢铁和铝关税从25%提高至50%深表 遗憾，这一决定进一步加剧了大西洋两岸的经济不确定性。发言人称谈判仍在继续——双方已同意加快 谈判进程。 此外，还有一则消息值得注意，德国联邦总理弗里德里希.默茨将启程前往美国，展开上任以来首次对 华盛顿的正式访问。按照计划，他将于5日在白宫与美国总统唐纳德.特朗普举行闭门会谈，并出席相关 活动。 ...

美国总统特朗普4月2日公布了面向全球广泛的对等关税，引发全球贸易市场轩然大波。4月9日，特朗普 暂停了对大多数美国贸易伙伴的对等关税，暂停期限为90天，将高额关税的生效期推迟到7月9日。 据路透社报道，距离对等关税恢复期限仅剩五周，特朗普政府发出紧急信函要求各国在本周三前提交贸 易谈判的最佳方案。 据路透社获得的美国贸易代表办公室的一份信件草案显示，美国政府正在向谈判伙伴施压，要求各国在 关键领域提供最佳方案，包括购买美国工农业产品的关税和配额方案。 报道称，该草案表明，美国政府内部对完成交易存在紧迫感。尽管白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西 特反复承诺多项协议即将达成，但迄今为止，美国仅与英国这一主要贸易伙伴达成协议，且该协议更像 是持续谈判的框架而非最终交易。报道称，目前尚不清楚这封信会具体发送给哪些国家，但目标是那些 正在进行积极谈判的包括日本、越南、印度等国家以及欧盟。 美提高进口钢铝关税欧盟称将反制 美欧关系近期因美国滥施关税持续紧张。欧盟委员会2日表示，本周将向美国提出强有力的理由，要求 美国降低或取消关税。 欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔2日称，欧盟对美国宣布将钢铁进口关税从25%提高到50%表示强 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic operation in Q2 is expected to continue in a stable manner with the continuous implementation of growth - stabilizing policies, but the foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and policies need further strengthening [2][16] - The US fiscal deficit in the 2026 fiscal year may reach $2.2 trillion, and the deficit rate may rise to 7%, which will increase the supply pressure of US Treasury bonds and may cause continuous fluctuations in US dollar assets [29] - It is expected that the monetary policy will be further relaxed in the second and third quarters, and investors are advised to actively allocate Chinese bonds [29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q1 2025, GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter [1] - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][2][16] - In April 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 1.5%, and 8.0% respectively [1] - In April 2025, the new RMB loans of financial institutions were 280 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous month [1] - In April 2025, CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.7% year - on - year [1] - In April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) and total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.0% and 4.7% respectively [1] - In April 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import values were 8.1% and - 0.2% respectively [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's manufacturing PMI improved in May, and the export container freight rate index rebounded, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing boom level [2][16] - The US core PCE price index in April increased by 2.5% year - on - year, and the "super core inflation indicator" dropped to the lowest in four years, leading traders to bet on a Fed rate cut in September [2] - US officials defended tariffs, stating that they would not disappear [3] - Fed's Daly is confident in the Fed's prediction of two rate cuts by the end of the year [3] 3.2.2 Metals - Platinum has seen a significant increase this year, with a maximum cumulative increase of 25%. JP Morgan predicts that the platinum price will reach $1200 per ounce in Q4 2025 and $1300 per ounce in Q2 2026 [5] - Chile expects its copper production to reach 5.67 million tons in 2025 [6] - Goldman Sachs predicts an increased possibility of US copper import tariffs, and has adjusted its aluminum price forecast [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Multiple regions in China are strengthening the management of strategic minerals to prevent illegal exports [8] - The US will raise the steel import tariff from 25% to 50% on June 4, and the EU is considering counter - measures [8][9][19] - The price of coking coal dropped by 1.17% in mid - May, reaching a record low [10] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [11] - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day in August and maintains its oil price forecast [11] - The Russian central bank believes that the risk of financial instability is limited due to low debt levels and accumulated reserves [11] - India has lowered the natural gas price by 5% in June [12] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Malaysia's palm oil exports in May increased by 17.9% compared to the same period last month [13] - The price of soybeans increased by 1.18% in mid - May, reaching a new high since late September 2024 [14] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On May 30, the central bank conducted 291.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 148.6 billion yuan [15] - A total of 1.6026 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market this week [15] - The central bank conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations in May, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [17] 3.3.2 Key News - China's economic data in May showed that the manufacturing PMI improved, and the import and export situation improved [2][16] - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18 - 19, and several major financial policies will be announced [16] - It is expected that the central bank may resume buying government bonds in July or August [17] - The US has extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation against China [18] - Multiple cities' new home prices showed different trends in May, with first - and second - tier cities rising and third - and fourth - tier cities falling [21] - As of May 28, 119 market entities issued science and technology innovation bonds with a total issuance of 339.1 billion yuan [21] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The domestic bond market rebounded, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures rising by 0.56%, and major interest - rate bond yields falling [25] - The exchange bond market showed mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [25] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.06%, and the trading volume was 58.988 billion yuan [25] - Most money market interest rates and bond yields in the US and Europe increased [26][27] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1953, down 37 basis points from the previous trading day [28] - The US dollar index fell by 0.75%, and most non - US currencies rose [28] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Securities predicts that the US fiscal deficit in the 2026 fiscal year may reach $2.2 trillion, and the deficit rate may rise to 7% [29] - CICC Fixed Income expects the monetary policy to be relaxed in the second and third quarters, and suggests investors to allocate Chinese bonds [29] - Huatai Securities believes that fiscal policies may be further strengthened to support economic growth [30] 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.57%, and pharmaceutical and real - estate stocks led the decline [32] - As of June 3, 28 listed companies have "removed stars and caps" this year, more than the same period last year [32] - As of May 31, private equity funds showed strong interest in ETFs, especially science - innovation and free - cash - flow themed ETFs [33] - *ST Hengli is under investigation by the CSRC for suspected false disclosure of financial data [33]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-Japan tariff negotiations are critical, with Japan pushing for the complete removal of tariffs while the US remains resistant. The recent phone call between Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Trump has introduced new dynamics into the discussions, particularly regarding investment and economic security [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - Japan has consistently requested the full cancellation of tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, but the US has not agreed to this demand [1]. - The third round of tariff negotiations, held on May 23, continued the previous discussions' tone, with Japanese Economic Revitalization Minister Akira Amari stating that the exchanges were more candid and in-depth than before [1][2]. - A new round of negotiations is scheduled for May 30 in Washington, indicating ongoing efforts to reach an agreement [1]. Group 2: Strategic Discussions - The phone call between Ishiba and Trump covered several key topics, including plans for a face-to-face meeting during the G7 summit, economic security-related tariff negotiations, and potential Japanese procurement of US fighter jets [2]. - Japan is considering establishing a "Japan-US Shipbuilding Fund" to revitalize its shipbuilding industry, which could enhance cooperation in sectors deemed critical to national security by the US [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump's recent Middle East trip resulted in approximately $2 trillion in investment agreements, which he communicated to Ishiba, aiming to encourage Japan to increase its investments in the US [2]. - Japan has already invested significantly in US manufacturing, but further investments are seen as necessary under Trump's "revitalize American manufacturing" agenda [2]. Group 4: Broader Trade Context - The situation with the EU serves as a cautionary tale for Japan, as delays in trade negotiations have led to threats of increased tariffs from the US [3]. - The outcome of the G7 summit, particularly regarding breakthroughs in automotive and steel tariffs, could have substantial implications for related industries in Japan [3].