港股三大指数集体拉升，恒指、国指涨超1%，科指涨超2%，科指成分股中，百度涨超5%，华虹半导体 涨超4%，网易、理想汽车涨超3%。 港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 商务部等5部门办公厅（室）印发关于做好2026年家电以旧换新、数码和智能产品购新补贴工作的通 知。2026年1月1日起，按照全国统一的品类和标准，对个人消费者购买1级能效或水效标准的冰箱、洗 衣机、电视、空调、热水器、电脑6类家电产品，以及单件销售价格不超过6000元的手机、平板、智能 手表（手环）、智能眼镜4类数码和智能产品给予补贴。补贴标准为上述产品扣除各环节优惠后最终销 售价格的15%，每人每类可补贴1件，其中，家电产品每件补贴不超过1500元，数码和智能产品每件补 贴不超过500元。 大型科技股中，阿里巴巴-W涨2.52%，腾讯控股涨2.59%，京东集团-SW涨2.69%，小米集团-W涨 2.44%，网易-S涨4.85%，美团-W涨1.74%，快手-W涨2.19%，哔哩哔哩-W涨2.85%。 消息面上，百度港交所公告，1月1日，昆仑芯已透过其联席保荐人以保密形式向香港联交所提交上市申 请表格（A1表格），以申请 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to recover in 2025 after three years of adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising approximately 18.41% and the STAR Market and ChiNext Indexes increasing by 46.30% and 49.57% respectively [1] - The unique aspect of this recovery is that it is driven by a profound change in risk appetite at the institutional level rather than by profit improvement or liquidity [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, the capital market may still have "expectation differences" based on policy logic and market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The U.S.-China relationship may be influenced by Trump's political self-rescue strategy, which could exacerbate the "East rises, West declines" trend, with two potential windows for easing [2][5] - The first window for easing could occur if high-level visits happen early in the year, while the second window may arise as the midterm elections approach in September, potentially leading to a compromise in trade orders [5] - During the easing phases, A-share technology, Hong Kong internet stocks, and RMB assets may benefit, while defensive sectors like military, key materials, and gold may perform better during pressured phases [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's path to easing may see a speculative phase in early 2026, with a potential "super-easing" window in the third quarter [6][9] - The nomination of a new Fed chair in May 2026 will be a critical turning point for market liquidity [6] - The market may react to the nomination speculation, leading to an early valuation recovery for high-elasticity assets [6] Group 4 - Fiscal policy in 2026 may see a marginal increase in the deficit rate, but the overall fiscal effort is expected to converge, focusing on strategic areas rather than traditional infrastructure [10] - Domestic monetary policy will face dual constraints, needing to maintain liquidity while keeping the RMB relatively strong [10] - The asset allocation strategy will likely favor high-dividend blue-chip stocks and policy-supported core assets due to limited interest rate decline space [10][14] Group 5 - The A-share market is expected to be supported by capital market policies, while the Hong Kong market may benefit more from economic policies [11][12] - The tightening of IPO approvals and regulations on share reductions will create a "healthy" slow bull framework for the A-share market [12] - The A-share market is likely to outperform the Hong Kong market in the first half of 2026 due to these supportive measures [12] Group 6 - The pace of retail investor entry into the market is expected to remain slow, transitioning from concentrated entry to gradual accumulation [13] - Factors such as the prolonged stabilization of real estate prices and cautious income expectations will contribute to this slow entry [13] - Historical examples suggest that significant retail investment requires both institutional benefits and clear profit expectations [13] Group 7 - The global technology sector is expected to maintain an upward trend, with increased volatility and a shift from broad AI growth to more differentiated performance [15][19] - The Nasdaq 100 index is projected to experience overall upward movement, but with amplified volatility [15] - The focus will shift to companies that can convert capital expenditures into cash flow rather than those driven by narrative [15] Group 8 - The domestic AI investment logic is shifting towards application and energy materials, with a focus on "benchmarking" against U.S. advancements [20][21] - The A-share technology sector is expected to expand, with significant growth in humanoid robots and edge AI applications [21] - The healthcare sector may also benefit from AI advancements, particularly in drug development and clinical data processing [21] Group 9 - The "anti-involution" strategy is evolving into a national competitive advantage, focusing on enhancing global bargaining power through industry consolidation [22][23] - Strategic metals and renewable energy sectors are expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and increased demand due to geopolitical factors [23] Group 10 - Gold prices are anticipated to rise due to geopolitical risks and declining monetary credit, with a focus on a gradual upward trend rather than a sharp increase [26][29] - The demand for copper and other strategic resources is expected to grow due to the needs of new energy vehicles and AI data centers [29]

Group 1 - In 2025, the sales of products related to the trade-in program will exceed 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [1] - The trade-in program includes over 11.5 million cars, 129 million home appliances, 9.1 million digital products, 12 million home renovation items, and 12.5 million electric bicycles [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed strong opposition to the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism, stating it imposes unfair trade restrictions on Chinese products [1] Group 2 - In 2025, China's carbon market is expected to operate smoothly, with an increase in market vitality and expanded support for voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading [1] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade organized 407 outbound delegations in 2025, focusing on practical cooperation in trade and investment with Belt and Road countries [1] - The total box office revenue for Chinese films in 2025 is projected to be 51.83 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.95% [1] Group 3 - The Jilin Province's total electricity consumption reached 101.2 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, marking a significant milestone [1] - The number of outbound and inbound travelers through the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge exceeded 31.34 million and 6.8 million vehicles, respectively, in 2025, both setting historical records [1] - The Spanish stock market index Ibex saw a nearly 50% increase in 2025, marking the largest rise since 1993 [1] Group 4 - Elon Musk announced that his brain-machine interface company, Neuralink, will begin mass production of brain-machine interface devices in 2026, focusing on streamlined and automated surgical processes [2]

大型科技股中，阿里巴巴-W涨0.28%，腾讯控股涨0.25%，京东集团-SW涨0.63%，小米集团-W涨 0.25%，网易-S涨2.52%，美团-W平收，快手-W跌0.16%，哔哩哔哩-W涨1.4%。造车新势力普涨，理想 汽车、零跑汽车涨超1%；新股壁仞科技开盘大涨82%，市值达855亿港元。 离岸人民币兑美元升破6.97，最高升至6.9678，创2023年5月以来新高。美股在2025年最后一个交易日走 势向下，科技股走势拖低大市，三大指数均录得跌幅收市。美元低位靠稳，美国十年期债息回升至4.17 厘水平，金价急跌后有反弹，油价则有所回落。 1月2日，港股恒生指数开盘涨0.34%，报25717.42点，恒生科技指数涨0.58%，报5547.85点，国企指数 涨0.4%，报8949.76点，红筹指数涨0.56%，报4037.86点。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅√ | | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生科技指数 | 5547.85 | +0.58% | | 800700 | | | | 国企指数 | 8949.76 | +0.40% | | 800100 | | | | 恒生指数 | 2571 ...

2026年首个港股交易日，三大指数集体高开，恒指涨0.34%，国指涨0.4%，恒生科技指数涨0.58%。科 指成分股普遍高开，携程、网易涨超2%，理想汽车、京东健康、哔哩哔哩、蔚来、零跑汽车均涨超 1%。 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 香港恒生指数开盘涨0.34%，恒生科技指数涨0.58%。壁仞科技上市首日涨82%。携程集团、网易涨超 2%，理想汽车、京东健康等涨超1%。离岸人民币兑美元升破6.97，创2023年5月以来新高。 ...

这一回应解释了微信安装包变大的客观逻辑。马斯克就一直羡慕微信之"重"，他多次赞叹："在中国， 你可以只用微信生活。"当一个应用足以支撑十亿人海量的数字生活需求时，它本身已演变为一种数字 基础设施。 从更深层次看，这一现象也折射出：随着移动互联网的快速发展，手机、应用及数据在日常生活中日益 重要，由此引发的一系列连锁反应。人类的数字生活正变得越来越"沉重"。 不仅仅是微信，我们日常使用的几乎所有应用，都在以肉眼可见的速度变重、变大。以至于手机硬件的 升级，都难以完全抵消应用膨胀带来的负担。臃肿的软件不断挤占手机空间，拖慢运行速度，最终损害 了用户的体验。 寄望于"微信们"主动大幅"瘦身"不太现实。因为无论从技术还是市场角度分析，其体积的膨胀都具有一 定的必然性。时至今日，那些初期功能单一的应用工具，已演变为集聊天、支付、游戏、社交、媒体、 办公协作等功能于一体的超级应用和超级入口。从技术上看，每一次功能迭代都意味着更多代码、逻辑 和资源需要被打包进安装包；从市场角度看，更丰富的功能意味着更强的竞争力——在诸多厂商求超级 入口而不得的当下，已占据优势的"微信们"很难主动做减法。相反，未来或许还会有更多功能被整合进 ...

Group 1: Market Predictions - The S&P 500 index has increased by 17.41% year-to-date, closing at 6905.74 on December 29, 2025, with most institutions predicting further growth in 2026 [1][2] - The European Stoxx 600 index has also seen a year-to-date increase of 17.01%, with a median forecast suggesting a further rise to approximately 620 points by the end of 2026 [13][14] Group 2: Technology Sector Performance - The performance of the "Tech Seven" companies shows significant divergence, with Google leading at a 66.29% increase, followed by Nvidia at 40.20%, while Amazon only increased by 5.78% [3] - OpenAI plans to invest $1.4 trillion over the coming years but is expected to incur cumulative losses of $115 billion by 2029, raising concerns about its high valuation [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Currency Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts a potential 5% decline in the US dollar in the first half of 2026, while Deutsche Bank suggests the dollar is currently overvalued by 10%-15% [7][8] - Citigroup and Société Générale foresee a rebound in the dollar in the latter half of 2026, driven by the resilience of the US economy and AI investments [9][10] Group 4: Emerging Markets Insights - UBS forecasts an 8% return for the MSCI Emerging Markets index in 2026, with a focus on Chinese companies in the AI sector due to their unique consumer-facing positions [17] - JPMorgan anticipates that emerging markets will outperform developed markets for the second consecutive year, with the MSCI China index having nearly 20% upside potential [18]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its recovery in 2026, driven by changes in risk appetite at the institutional level rather than just profit improvements or liquidity increases [1] Group 1: Market Recovery and Trends - The A-share market experienced a recovery in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising approximately 18.41%, while the STAR Market and ChiNext recorded gains of 46.30% and 49.57% respectively [1] - The recovery is characterized by a significant change in risk appetite at the institutional level, which is seen as a fundamental driver of valuation reassessment [1] Group 2: U.S.-China Relations - The political dynamics in the U.S., particularly under Trump's administration, may exacerbate the "East rises, West declines" narrative, with potential for two key windows of easing in U.S.-China relations [2][3] - The first window could occur with high-level visits early in the year, while the second may arise as the midterm elections approach, necessitating compromises in trade [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for market liquidity and policy direction [7][8] - The first phase of the nomination process may lead to speculation about aggressive rate cuts, impacting risk assets positively [11] Group 4: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy in 2026 may see a marginal increase in deficit rates, but the focus will shift towards targeted investments rather than broad-based infrastructure spending [12][13] - Monetary policy is expected to face dual constraints, balancing liquidity needs with maintaining a strong RMB to uphold national credit asset pricing [13] Group 5: Capital Market Management - A-shares are likely to benefit from capital market policies aimed at managing expectations, with a focus on long-term funds supporting the market [14][15] - The tightening of IPO approvals and regulations on share reductions will create a "healthy" slow bull market framework [16] Group 6: Global Technology Trends - The global technology sector, particularly AI, is expected to continue its upward trajectory, but with increased volatility and a shift towards application-based investments [20][21] - The Nasdaq 100 index is projected to maintain an upward trend, but with significant fluctuations influenced by U.S. political dynamics [25] Group 7: Domestic Technology Developments - The investment logic in AI is shifting from foundational computing power to application deployment, with a focus on domestic sectors that can match U.S. advancements [26][27] - Key areas of growth include humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and upstream materials, driven by domestic supply chain advantages [28] Group 8: Gold and Commodities - Gold prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical risks and declining monetary credibility, with a focus on strategic resources like copper and other metals [34][37] - The demand for commodities will be driven by supply constraints and strategic needs, particularly in the context of global supply chain restructuring [37] Group 9: New Consumption Trends - The demographic shift towards lower birth rates and an increase in single-person households is reshaping consumption patterns, emphasizing emotional value over traditional family-oriented spending [38][39] - New consumption categories, such as pet-related products and AI companions, are anticipated to see significant growth as consumer preferences evolve [39]

Group 1 - The event "Science New Year Conference and Tencent Science Night" was held in Shanghai, marking a shift in science education from one-way communication to public participation and co-creation [1][2] - The launch of the "Biodiversity Public Scientist" project aims to engage the public in biodiversity monitoring and protection, making scientific research accessible to non-professionals [2] - The event featured various speakers, including academicians and experts, who discussed the translation of complex scientific concepts into public language and the role of science in societal progress [1][2] Group 2 - The roundtable discussion "Director's Appointment" expanded the conversation on "Science and Innovation Education" from multiple perspectives, emphasizing the need to cultivate inquisitive learners rather than rote memorization [2] - A special initiative invited over 30 girls from remote villages to experience the museum, highlighting the importance of equal access to scientific knowledge and cultural resources [3] - The event showcased a blend of scientific experiments and artistic presentations, demonstrating the diverse ways science can engage with the public [3]