EIA周度数据:炼厂高开工,汽柴再累库 | 2025年12月18日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | | 发类可【2012】669号 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | F03141405 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 有风险, 投资需谨慎。 美国12月12日当周商业原油库存减少127.4万桶,虽原油加工量增加12.8万桶/日,原油净出口 增加71.9万桶/日均利于加速去库,但实际去库幅度与上期数据相差不大。炼厂开工率继续攀升至 94.8%,为同期绝对高位,汽柴油库存延续累积,原油与石油产品总库存处同期高位。总体来看, 单周数据对价格指向有限,持续利空汽柴油裂解价差。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+产量政策。 | 单位:万桶 | 公布值 | 前值 | 单位:万桶/日 | 公布值 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存变动 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for asphalt is mostly in the red, with the main contract opening at 2950.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of 2.06% during the day [1] - As of December 15, the total inventory of asphalt in 104 social warehouses in China is 1.029 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% compared to December 11 [1] - The comprehensive profit for asphalt as of December 15 is -354 CNY/ton, which has increased by 0.52 CNY/ton on a month-over-month basis [1] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures indicates that the current peak season for asphalt is not performing beyond expectations, and attention should be paid to winter storage conditions and potential price adjustments by refineries [1] - Newhu Futures reports that some major refineries in Shandong have released winter storage contracts at prices between 2900-2920 CNY/ton, with increased supply in both northern and southern markets [2] - The short-term price outlook for asphalt futures is expected to remain weak and volatile, influenced by winter storage prices and crude oil prices [2]

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical raw materials index decreased by 1.75%, while the chemical machinery index increased by 0.47%. The pharmaceutical index fell by 0.24%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index dropped by 1.48% [1] - In the petroleum sector, the petroleum processing index declined by 2.65%, the petroleum extraction index fell by 2.49%, and the petroleum trading index decreased by 7.22% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices decreased, with the NYMEX West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settling at $57.44 per barrel, down 4.39% from December 5. The ICE Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.12 per barrel, down 4.13% from December 5 [1] Group 3: Petrochemical Product Price Changes - The top five petrochemical products with price increases were lithium battery electrolyte (up 5.50%), vitamin VA (up 5.21%), bisphenol A (up 4.42%), sulfuric acid (up 4.36%), and sulfur (up 4.21%) [1] - The top five petrochemical products with price decreases were liquid chlorine (down 32.88%), 2% biotin (down 5.45%), vitamin D3 (down 5.11%), aniline (down 4.36%), and DEG (down 4.15%) [1] Group 4: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five performing listed chemical companies were Zai Sheng Technology (up 61.19%), Guoci Materials (up 23.46%), Lanxiao Technology (up 18.13%), Qiaoyuan Co. (up 15.18%), and Yongguan New Materials (up 14.34%) [2] - The top five underperforming listed chemical companies were Fanli Technology (down 22.56%), Qingshuiyuan (down 18.42%), Hengtong Co. (down 16.12%), Letong Co. (down 15.53%), and Asia Pacific Industry (down 14.06%) [2]

Core Insights - The national statistics indicate that in November 2025, the crude oil processing volume of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 60.83 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [1] - For the period from January to November 2025, the total crude oil processing volume was 675.07 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [1] Summary by Category - **Monthly Performance** - In November 2025, the daily average processing volume was 2.028 million tons [1] - **Year-to-Date Performance** - The cumulative processing volume from January to November 2025 was 675.07 million tons, with a growth rate of 4.0% compared to the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic policies in November have shown positive effects, with a focus on strengthening domestic circulation, leading to stable economic growth and a favorable environment for achieving annual targets [1] Economic Performance - Industrial production maintained steady growth, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 4.8% year-on-year in November, remaining stable compared to the previous month [2] - The service sector also saw growth, with a production index increase of 4.2%, particularly in information transmission and business services, which grew by 12.9% and 8.4% respectively [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.3% year-on-year in November, with service retail sales increasing by 5.4% from January to November, indicating a slight acceleration in growth [2] - Foreign trade showed resilience, with total goods imports and exports increasing by 4.1% year-on-year in November, a significant acceleration compared to the previous month [2] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November, while consumer prices rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of increase [2] Energy Supply and Investment - Energy supply has been strengthened to meet winter demands, with industrial crude oil, natural gas, and electricity production increasing by 2.2%, 5.7%, and 2.7% respectively in November [3] - Investment in accommodation, catering, wholesale, and retail sectors grew by 7.1% each, and electricity and heat production and supply saw a 12.5% increase [3] New Production Capacity and Industrial Upgrades - The development of new productive forces has accelerated, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.2% from January to November, and smart consumer equipment manufacturing growing by 7.6% [4] - Traditional industries are undergoing transformation, with biomass fuel processing value added rising by 15.6%, contributing to the growth of the petroleum processing industry [4] - The digital economy is also on the rise, with the value added of large-scale digital product manufacturing increasing by 9.3% [4] Consumption and Investment Potential - Consumption potential continues to be released, with retail sales of cultural and office supplies and communication equipment growing by 11.7% and 20.6% respectively in November [7] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.7%, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales, indicating a shift towards new consumption models [7] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but project investment excluding real estate development grew by 0.8% [7] - Investment potential remains significant, with ongoing measures to promote investment growth in various sectors, including education, healthcare, and public services [8]

冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年12月15日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.1个百分点至27.8%，较去年同期低了0.9个百分点，仍处于近年同期最低水 平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨， 减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比下跌2个百分点至27%，受到资金和天 气制约。上周，华北地区炼厂多控量交付前期合同，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少9.69%至25.34万吨， 处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比上升，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。伊拉克部分前期故障油田恢复生 产，美国仍在极力促成俄乌和谈，欧美成品油裂解价差持续下跌，原油价格偏弱震荡。由于美国在委内瑞拉海岸扣 押了一艘大型油轮，美国财政部宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的制裁措 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Molong (00568) plans to invest up to RMB 170 million in a high-end oil pipe intelligent processing line project to enhance production capacity and market competitiveness by December 15, 2025 [1] Investment Project - The project aims to expand production line scale, optimize production layout, improve supporting facilities, and enhance processing capacity to increase overall operational efficiency and unlock development potential [1] - Upon completion, the project is expected to improve the supply capacity of high-end products, reduce production costs, and strengthen the company's core competitiveness and overall strength, aligning with the company's development strategy [1] Funding and Financial Impact - The investment will be sourced from the company's own or self-raised funds, with phased funding based on project planning and implementation progress [1] - The project is not expected to have a significant short-term impact on the company's financial status or operating results, nor will it affect the normal conduct of the company's existing main business, ensuring no harm to the interests of the company and all shareholders [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Molong (00568.HK) plans to invest up to RMB 170 million in a high-end oil special pipe intelligent processing line project to enhance its production capacity and market competitiveness by December 15, 2025 [1] Investment Project - The project aims to expand production line scale, optimize production layout, improve supporting facilities, and enhance processing capacity, thereby increasing the company's overall operational efficiency and unlocking development potential [1] - Upon completion, the project is expected to improve the supply capacity of high-end products, reduce production costs, and strengthen the company's core competitiveness and overall strength, aligning with the company's development strategy [1] Funding and Financial Impact - The investment will be sourced from the company's own or self-raised funds, with capital being injected in phases according to project planning and implementation progress [1] - The project is not expected to have a significant short-term impact on the company's financial status or operating results, nor will it affect the normal conduct of the company's existing main business [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Molong (00568) plans to invest up to RMB 170 million in a high-end oil special pipe intelligent processing line project to enhance production capacity and market competitiveness by December 15, 2025 [1] Investment Project - The project aims to expand production line scale, optimize production layout, improve supporting facilities, and enhance processing capacity to increase overall operational efficiency and unlock development potential [1] - Upon completion, the project is expected to improve the supply capacity of high-end products, reduce production costs, and strengthen the company's core competitiveness and overall strength, aligning with the company's development strategy [1] Funding and Financial Impact - The investment will be sourced from the company's own or self-raised funds, with phased funding based on project planning and implementation progress [1] - The project is not expected to have a significant short-term impact on the company's financial status or operating results, nor will it affect the normal conduct of the company's existing main business, ensuring no harm to the interests of the company and all shareholders [1]

12月15日岳阳兴长大宗交易一览 | 成交量 （万 | 成交金额 | 成交价 | 相对当日收盘 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （万元） | 格 | 折溢价（%） | | | | 股） | | （元） | | | | | 629.72 | 9999.95 | 15.88 | -0.31 | 中国银河证券股份有限公司 | 东兴证券股份有限 | | | | | | 北京安贞门证券营业部 | 公司山东分公司 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，岳阳兴长今日收盘价为15.93元，上涨0.31%，日换手率为1.22%，成交额为 7155.12万元，全天主力资金净流入124.65万元，近5日该股累计下跌5.01%，近5日资金合计净流出 5896.62万元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为4.43亿元，近5日减少3514.19万元，降幅为7.36%。 据天眼查APP显示，岳阳兴长石化股份有限公司成立于1990年02月14日，注册资本36950.4506万人民 币。（数据宝） 岳阳兴长12月15日大宗交易平台出现一笔 ...