证券研究报告 2025年04月27日 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 分析师 陈金海 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521060001 联系人 李宁 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 交通运输 摘要 交运平台高增长，进入利润兑现期 ⚫ 估值相对低位，发掘成长公司 作者： ⚫ 经营杠杆，利润进入兑现期 随着竞争格局稳定，销售、管理、研发费用维持稳定，毛利润增长有望带动营业利润更大 幅度增长。2024年满帮集团、美团、顺丰同城的营业利润成倍增长，未来或持续较快增长。 ⚫ 渗透率上升，毛利持续增长 网约车、网络货运、即时配送的渗透率上升，带动满帮集团、美团、顺丰同城等公司2024 年营收和毛利润30%左右增长。满帮集团的变现率上升，2024年毛利润增速42%。 风险提示：公路运价下跌风险，市场竞争加剧风险，监管要求降低佣金率风险 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 2 1.1 聚焦交运高成长板块 高成长公司带来高回报机会。新兴的网约车、数字货运、即时配送等平台头部公司，业务 量和收入增速20%左右，营业利润成倍增长。随着新能源汽车普及、智能驾驶 ...

一是创新金融形成规模。探索联合租赁、跨境转租赁、保税租赁、离岸租赁等40个租赁模式，飞机、船 舶、海工平台跨境租赁业务全国占比超70％。首创保理行业标准、创新政策30余项，成为全国商业保理 行业的重要创新策源地、模式输出地和机构聚集地。 二是"保税+"多点开花。保税维修涵盖航空航天、工程机械、船舶等众多品类，成为国内业务模式最丰 富、政策制度创新最多的地区；保税研发首次应用于航空领域，有力推动了国产飞行模拟机研制；国际 航行船舶保税燃料油加注业务落地，天津港配套服务能力大幅提升。 三是网络货运蓬勃发展。打造共享经济企业综合服务系统，累计整合来自全国的司机426.6万名，车辆 392.5万辆，2024年，完成运单5367万单、货运量5.8亿吨，运费总金额超900亿元，并将服务延伸至运输 装备、成品油网络零售、碳资产管理等上下游领域，形成完整的行业生态。 四是生物医药创新突破。实施临床急需进口药品绿色通道试点、进口研发药品白名单制度、境外生物制 品跨境分段生产等创新举措，出台全国首个省级基因和细胞产业促进条例，吸引罗氏制药、瑞普生物等 200余家重点生物医药企业在区内聚集，产值规模近500亿元。 21世纪经济报道 ...

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is a strategic technology driving a new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation, significantly changing human production and lifestyle [1] - The logistics industry, as a foundational and strategic sector of the national economy, plays a crucial role in ensuring smooth economic circulation and serving production and daily life [1] Industry Developments - In recent years, a road network freight platform company has maintained an annual R&D investment growth of 10% to 20%, which is relatively rare in the logistics sector [3] - The company emphasizes the need for AI-driven solutions to reduce costs associated with traditional labor, which could lead to market elimination [3] AI Applications in Logistics - AI is being applied throughout the entire freight process, from pricing to order allocation and fulfillment supervision, significantly reducing the empty driving rate of truck drivers from 30%-40% to 6%-7% [5] - A logistics digital platform in Nanjing has developed an AI-powered smart multimodal transport system, which has improved the speed and quality of transport solutions, processing over 50 million orders and covering 60,000 road routes and 4,500 water routes [7] AI Penetration in Logistics - According to the latest report, the penetration rate of AI in the logistics and supply chain sector has exceeded 37%, with transportation applications nearing 80% [9] - The integration of AI can effectively address past errors in manual information transmission and optimize supply chain organization, providing essential support for the future intelligent development of the logistics sector [9]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Jinding (Group) Co., Ltd. reported its 2024 annual results, showing significant growth in cash flow but continued losses in net profit, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability despite some operational improvements [1]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company achieved operating revenue of 356,745,012.12 yuan, an increase of 8.86% from 327,704,813.54 yuan in the previous year. The building materials sector saw a revenue increase of 34.92%, while logistics revenue grew by 58.20%. However, network freight revenue declined by 72.30% [2]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders was -19,188,211.48 yuan, an improvement from -41,236,978.21 yuan the previous year, indicating reduced losses but still facing significant challenges [3]. - **Deducted Non-Recurring Profit**: The deducted net profit was -18,699,572.25 yuan, showing a similar trend to net profit, highlighting weak core business profitability [4]. - **Earnings Per Share**: Basic earnings per share were -0.0550 yuan, improved from -0.1182 yuan, reflecting a reduction in losses but still negative returns for shareholders [5]. - **Cash Flow**: The net cash flow from operating activities surged to 109,386,644.93 yuan, a 1111.55% increase from 9,028,624.51 yuan, indicating strong cash generation from core operations [13]. Expense Analysis - **Sales Expenses**: Sales expenses decreased by 17.31% to 1,837,259.31 yuan, primarily due to reduced business expenses [7]. - **Management Expenses**: Management expenses rose by 25.04% to 54,192,742.31 yuan, driven by increases in labor costs and depreciation [8]. - **Financial Expenses**: Financial expenses slightly decreased by 8.28% to 18,203,897.47 yuan, influenced by changes in interest expenses due to new loans and repayments [9]. - **R&D Expenses**: R&D expenses increased significantly by 76.43% to 2,351,797.08 yuan, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation and new product development [10]. Investment and Financing Activities - **Investment Cash Flow**: The net cash flow from investing activities was -193,459,173.85 yuan, an increase in outflows due to active project investments [14]. - **Financing Cash Flow**: The net cash flow from financing activities grew by 16.51% to 120,197,947.78 yuan, indicating successful fundraising efforts to support business development [16]. Management Compensation - **Executive Compensation**: The chairman received a pre-tax compensation of 1,223,500 yuan, while the general manager received 1,125,100 yuan. The compensation levels should align with the company's performance and strategic goals [21][22].

TFI International Inc. (NYSE:TFII) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call April 24, 2025 9:00 AM ET Company Participants Alain Bedard - Chairman, President and CEO David Saperstein - CFO Conference Call Participants Christyne McGarvey - Morgan Stanley Jordan Alliger - Goldman Sachs Walter Spracklin - RBC Capital Markets Ben Mohr - Citigroup Konark Gupta - Scotiabank Reed Seay - Stephens Benoit Poirier - Desjardins Scott Group - Wolfe Research Adam Roszkowski - Bank of America Brian Ossenbeck - JPMorgan Matt Milas ...

2024年，《快递市场管理办法》正式实施，引发大量讨论；阿里巴巴收购菜鸟股权，撤回上市申请；百世集团将从纽交所退市；京东物流全面入驻淘宝天 猫，菜鸟全面接入京东平台；国家邮政局支持发展无人配送、低空物流等新业态；闪送成功赴美上市。国内物流科技行业在政策赋能、技术突破、生态重构 三重驱动下，呈现出"降本增效、数智升级、竞合并存"的新格局。 在此背景下，4月21日，"一带一路"TOP10影响力社会智库网经社电子商务研究中心例行发布《2024年度中国物流科技市场数据报告》，已是连续第六次发 布。本报告根据网经社"电数宝"电商大数据库编制而成。 网经社电子商务研究中心网络零售部主任、高级分析师莫岱青表示，物流科技为以电商业务为依托的物流生态，包括综合电商物流、跨境物流、即时物流、 仓储物流、货运O2O、第三方快递、最后一公里、智能物流服务商、大宗物流网络以及物流供应链等。 莫岱青称，在物流科技产业链中，主要的玩家包括：1）综合电商物流类：菜鸟网络、京东物流、苏宁物流等；2）跨境物流类：运去哪、递四方、纵腾集团 等；3）即时物流类：达达快送、美团配送、蜂鸟配送、顺丰同城等；4）仓储物流：派迅智能、海柔创新、Syrius ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Internet Conference Asia-Pacific Summit held in Hong Kong focused on "Digital Intelligence Integration Leading the Future" and aimed to build a cooperative platform for digital transformation in the Asia-Pacific region [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Lalamove, as a digital logistics platform, has expanded its operations from the Greater Bay Area to over 400 cities across Asia, Latin America, and EMEA [2] - The company has facilitated over 779 million completed orders with a total global transaction value of $11.137 billion in 2024, reflecting an 18.3% year-on-year growth [2] Group 2: Business Model and Strategy - Lalamove emphasizes "digital-physical integration," which refers to the fusion of the digital economy with the real economy, and has been actively promoting the transformation of traditional industries over the past 11 years [2] - The company aims to contribute to local economic development by providing efficient and innovative logistics solutions, leveraging its technology to create a "logistics triangle" involving small and medium enterprises (SMEs), driver partners, and the logistics platform [2][3] Group 3: Community and Driver Engagement - Over 80% of Lalamove's customers are SMEs, and the company focuses on helping them reduce logistics costs and improve efficiency through digitalization and AI technologies [3] - Lalamove provides drivers with high autonomy and a safe working environment, maintaining a retail operation rate of 99.9% since 2022, and collaborates with local governments to promote safety culture among drivers [4]

Core Insights - The company, Huolala, has submitted an updated prospectus for its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting significant improvements in its financial performance and operational metrics since returning to profitability in 2023 [1][2] Financial Performance - Huolala's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was reported at $1.036 billion, $1.334 billion, and $1.593 billion respectively, with adjusted profits shifting from a loss of $12.1 million in 2022 to profits of $391 million in 2023 and $500 million in 2024 [2] - The company's global Gross Transaction Value (GTV) increased from $6.7 billion in 2022 to $10.3 billion in 2024, with completed orders rising from 428 million to 779 million, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% [2] Business Model and Network Effects - Huolala's extensive network of drivers and merchants is a key competitive advantage, with a focus on driver rights protection through fair order distribution, a "Driver Care Fund," and occupational injury insurance [1][2] - The company has diversified its revenue streams beyond local delivery to include intercity logistics and various value-added services, with over 70% of its intercity logistics first-time merchants being existing local service users [3] International Expansion - Huolala's international brand, Lalamove, has expanded into 11 global markets, covering 400 cities, and has established a local network of merchants and drivers, which is considered a competitive moat [4][5] - The overseas GTV for Huolala is projected to reach $830 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 28% from 2022 to 2024 [5] Market Potential - The Chinese road freight market is the largest globally, with a projected GTV of $1.2692 trillion in 2024, accounting for 33.2% of the global market [5] - The online penetration rate in the global road freight industry is currently low at 2.4%, but is expected to rise to 3.4% within five years, indicating significant growth potential for digital platforms like Huolala [5] Driver Welfare and Rights - Huolala emphasizes the importance of driver welfare, with initiatives such as the "Driver Care Fund," which has provided support to approximately 140 drivers facing hardships due to illness or natural disasters [7][8] - The company has also implemented an AI-driven safety system to enhance driver safety and income fairness, allowing drivers to actively bid on freight orders rather than passively accepting assignments [9]

Economic Trends - Recent high-frequency data indicates a marginal weakening in China's economy, particularly in real estate sales and domestic demand for automobiles and express delivery services[2] - Steel and construction materials show a mixed production trend, with rebar and wire rod demand increasing, while plate products related to exports and manufacturing are declining[2] Industrial Production - Production of raw materials like steel, cement, and asphalt has rebounded, while the operating rates of major chemical products are mixed, with some recovering and others declining[2] - Textile-related polyester production has increased, but the operating rates for PTA and automotive tires have decreased[2] Investment Insights - Construction site funding availability has improved, with a 0.55 percentage point increase in funding rates, although still below last year's levels[2] - Apparent demand for rebar, wire, and cement has increased, but remains weaker than the previous year[2] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 61 sample cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 17.2%, with a 16.1% drop since April, indicating a significant slowdown[2] - Second-hand home sales in 15 sample cities have also decreased, with a year-on-year growth of only 9.2% this week[2] Domestic Demand - Overall domestic transport remains stable, with a slight recovery in freight traffic, although retail sales for automobiles and express services have slowed down[2] - Major home appliance retail sales have increased by 31.4% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer electronics[2] External Demand - Recent data shows an increase in port container throughput by 11.1% year-on-year, suggesting a potential export surge ahead of tariff changes[2] - China's export container shipping rates have stabilized with a slight increase of 0.4%, ending a continuous decline since mid-January[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[2]

Economic Trends - Recent high-frequency data indicates a marginal weakening in China's economy, particularly in real estate sales and domestic demand for automobiles and express delivery services[2] - Steel and cement production have shown a recovery, while production rates for certain chemicals have fluctuated, reflecting a mixed industrial output[2] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 61 sample cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 17.2%, with a 16.1% drop since April, lower than March figures[2] - Second-hand home sales in 15 sample cities have decreased to a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, with a 15.5% increase since April, also lower than March[2] - The second-hand home listing price index fell by 0.6% month-on-month in March[2] Investment and Construction - Funding availability for construction sites increased by 0.55 percentage points week-on-week, with non-residential construction rising by 0.38 percentage points, still below last year's levels[2] - Apparent demand for rebar and wire rod, as well as cement shipments, has improved week-on-week, although absolute levels remain weaker than last year[2] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of major home appliances have surged by 31.4% year-on-year, while automobile retail and express delivery growth rates have slowed[2] - Daily average retail of passenger vehicles increased by 2% year-on-year from April 1-6, lower than March figures[2] External Demand - Port container throughput increased by 11.1% year-on-year, with international cargo flight numbers rising by 34.8%[2] - China's export container shipping rates stabilized with a slight increase of 0.4% week-on-week, ending a continuous decline since mid-January[2] Risks - Potential risks include insufficient growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[2]