增强理性竞争下的确定性，即时零售的盘子才能做得更大。 "没有那么便宜了。"刚刚过去的周末，许多消费者发现了外卖平台补贴力度的集体下降。7月18日，市场监管总局约谈饿了么、美团、京东三家平台企业， 要求各平台进一步规范促销行为，理性参与竞争。随着监管出手规范，过去几个月轰轰烈烈的"外卖大战"有了降温趋势。 回顾这场外卖大战，消费者享受到了外卖"薅羊毛"的快乐，外卖平台收获了订单量创新高的红火战报，不少商家订单疯涨、骑手收入翻倍，也有部分外卖商 家利润下降，"0元购"奶茶无人取，消费者遭遇商家"卡单"、出餐慢，增长的热闹与过度的消耗同时存在。 这不会是即时零售市场的最后一战。只要大公司们对即时零售和传统电商终将进入同一片战场的战略判断不变，京东、美团、阿里的流量"入口"之争就不会 轻易结束，甚至还可能迎来新玩家的不断入场。一些问题因此变得重要——这场热战留下了什么？市场需要有哪些冷思考？ "定价权要还给商家" 值得外卖平台警惕的是，在这场外卖大战中喊停的，除了监管，还有许多餐饮品牌创始人、餐饮协会的声音。 部分平台补贴需要商家部分出资是争议的一面，嘉和一品创始人刘京京呼吁，平台不应裹挟商家参与巨额补贴，双重承担配 ...

Core Insights - The recent "takeout war" has seen a reduction in subsidy intensity following discussions with major platforms like Ele.me, Meituan, and JD.com [2][12] - Meituan's actual subsidy on July 12 was between 300 million to 400 million yuan, significantly lower than the rumored 800 million to 1 billion yuan, while achieving 150 million orders in a single day [2][3] - Taobao's flash purchase service has shown rapid growth in non-food categories, with specific segments like blind boxes and maternal nutrition products seeing year-on-year increases of 2407% and 820% respectively [2][7] - JD.com has struggled to maintain order growth compared to Taobao's flash purchase, which has nearly matched Meituan's order volume in some cities [2][4] Market Dynamics - Since JD.com announced its entry into the takeout market in February, the competitive landscape has shifted from a "three-horse race" to a "two-horse race" between Meituan and Taobao's flash purchase [2][4] - Meituan's rider capacity and merchant scale provide it with a competitive edge, making it challenging for other platforms to achieve higher order volumes without significant investment in rider capacity and merchant partnerships [5][6] Non-Food Segment Growth - Non-food orders have become a focal point for all platforms, with Meituan reporting over 20 million non-food orders on July 5, and Taobao's flash purchase experiencing rapid growth in this segment [7][8] - The growth in non-food orders allows riders to optimize their delivery schedules beyond traditional meal times, catering to diverse consumer needs [8] Infrastructure and Delivery Models - The instant retail sector has evolved into three main service models: self-operated front warehouses, integrated store-warehouse models, and platform aggregation [9] - Meituan plans to expand its lightning warehouse network to over 100,000 locations within three years, enhancing its delivery capabilities [9] Regulatory Environment - The Chinese Chain Store and Franchise Association has called for the regulation of the instant retail market, urging platforms to cease aggressive price subsidy practices and ensure fair competition [11][13] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has also engaged with major platforms to enforce compliance with e-commerce laws and promote healthy competition [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing subsidy war primarily highlights the competition between Alibaba and Meituan, but the instant retail market will not be a duopoly, maintaining a tripartite structure with JD.com also playing a significant role [25]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The subsidy battle has expanded beyond food delivery to include daily retail, with retailers like Hong Zhen experiencing a surge in orders due to aggressive promotions from platforms like Meituan and Ele.me [5][11]. - On July 18, the State Administration for Market Regulation held talks with Ele.me, Meituan, and JD.com, urging them to comply with various laws and regulations, which may lead to a more restrained competitive environment [8][11]. - The market has seen a significant increase in non-food delivery orders, with Meituan reporting over 200 million non-food orders in July, indicating a shift towards a broader range of instant retail products [11][12]. Group 2: Business Strategies - Meituan has been actively expanding its instant retail strategy, aiming to have over 100,000 flash warehouses by 2027, with a projected market size of 200 billion yuan [15]. - Retailers like Hong Zhen are adapting to the changing landscape by increasing their inventory and diversifying their product offerings to include a wide range of daily necessities [19][20]. - The competition among the three giants is intensifying, with each platform striving to capture a larger share of the instant retail market, which is expected to be more frequent and potentially more profitable than food delivery alone [11][26]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly using delivery platforms for a variety of products beyond food, such as personal care items and electronics, driven by substantial discounts and promotions [10][11]. - The average delivery time for all orders has improved, with Meituan reporting an average delivery time of 34 minutes, enhancing customer satisfaction and encouraging more frequent purchases [11].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition among food delivery platforms is expected to continue, with companies like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com engaging in a battle for market share and consumer mindshare in the instant retail sector [1][7][20] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent regulatory discussions have led to a reduction in aggressive discounting strategies, but platforms are unlikely to abandon their subsidy-driven market acquisition tactics [1][4] - Meituan is under pressure to maintain its market share, which has historically been over 70%, as competitors intensify their efforts in the food delivery space [5][17] - The competition is not just about food delivery but extends to the broader instant retail market, which is seen as a critical hub for connecting high-frequency delivery needs with e-commerce [2][9] Group 2: Strategic Responses - Alibaba aims to leverage the current competition to build a comprehensive consumer platform, integrating food delivery with its e-commerce operations [7][20] - JD.com has taken a different approach by focusing on enhancing rider benefits rather than engaging in aggressive subsidies, aiming to build a brand image centered on service and quality [7][20] - The competition is expected to evolve into a long-term battle for consumer loyalty and market positioning, with each platform needing to balance various stakeholder interests [13][16] Group 3: Financial Implications - The intense competition has led to concerns about profitability, as the cost of subsidies and the pressure on margins could harm smaller businesses and overall market health [8][13] - Instant retail is projected to grow significantly, with Meituan's market share in this sector expected to increase, despite the challenges posed by competition [11][12] - The market for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) is substantial, and the integration of instant retail with traditional e-commerce could unlock new revenue streams for platforms [10][11] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - The success of instant retail hinges on consumer mindset, which is currently fragmented, making it essential for platforms to create a compelling value proposition to attract and retain users [10][12] - The delivery experience is critical, as consumer expectations for speed and efficiency continue to rise, necessitating a focus on operational excellence [13][16] - Platforms must navigate the delicate balance of maintaining consumer satisfaction while managing costs and profitability in a highly competitive environment [13][16]

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 即时零售补贴加大拖累短期利润，估值触底，推荐阿里>京东>美团 日单持续突破。3 季度即时零售平台加大补贴力度，继 7 月 5 日美团即时 零售宣布当日订单突破 1.2 亿（其中餐饮超 1 亿单）、7 月 7 日淘宝闪购日 订单超 8000 万（其中非餐饮订单 1300 万）后，7 月 12 日美团即时零售订 单突破 1.5 亿。参考过去 5 年日单均值/峰值比例下降趋势，考虑到本次峰 值突破相比往年花费更高的补贴投入，我们按美团外卖当季日均单量/峰 值比例约 65%，估算 2 季度美团即时零售/淘宝闪购（含饿了么）/京东外 卖 日 均 单 量 分 别 为 7700/5500/1100 万 单 ， 3 季 度 或 分 别 达 到 8800/6500/1800 万单。 长期来看，补贴收窄后单量稳定及 AOV 趋势仍有不确定性，短期补贴持 续加大将拖累今年内的利润表现： 2025 年 7 月 21 日 互联网行业 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 7/24 11/24 3/25 7/25 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the intense competition in the "delivery battle" among major platforms, reflecting the rapid evolution of the instant retail industry driven by consumer demand for "immediate satisfaction" [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Trends - Instant retail penetration in urban China is projected to rise from 26% in 2020 to 50% by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.3% [4] - The market has shifted from community group buying and horizontal platforms to front warehouse models and self-operated offline retailers, with front warehouse models leading growth at 30% [5][19] - The front warehouse model has transformed consumer shopping expectations, evolving from mere delivery to a combination of price, efficiency, and quality [6][14] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The primary consumers of the front warehouse model are childless families (single, young couples, and adults under 45), whose consumption patterns align well with the model's characteristics of speed and convenience [9][17] - High-frequency essential goods dominate the front warehouse model, including ready-to-drink beverages, condiments, frozen foods, fast-moving consumer goods, and fresh produce [13][12] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Key players in the front warehouse market include Pupu Grocery, Dingdong Maicai, and Xiaoxiang Supermarket, with the latter experiencing significant market share growth due to effective strategies [12][14] - Major competitors like Meituan and Alibaba are intensifying their marketing efforts and resource allocation, leading to a complex competitive environment [19][20] - The future growth of the front warehouse model will depend on the ongoing capital and resource competition among industry giants [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the instant retail industry, projecting a significant growth potential with a market size expected to reach 3.8 trillion yuan by 2029, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% from 2024 to 2029 [4][46]. Core Insights - Instant retail is reshaping the consumption ecosystem by focusing on "instant demand" scenarios, providing a unique supply and fulfillment system that emphasizes a delivery time of 30 minutes to 2 hours, distinguishing it from traditional e-commerce models [4][18]. - The competition among major platforms such as Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com is intensifying, with each leveraging their unique strengths to capture market share in the instant retail space [4][6]. - The report highlights that the instant retail market is expected to expand significantly, driven by changing consumer habits, technological advancements, and supportive policies [4][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Transformation - Instant retail is characterized by its ability to meet immediate consumer needs through a combination of online ordering and local fulfillment, creating a closed-loop system that enhances efficiency [18][19]. - The market for instant retail is projected to grow from 650 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.8 trillion yuan by 2029, indicating a robust growth trajectory [4][43]. 2. Competitive Landscape - Major players are competing across multiple dimensions, including pricing, quality, and fulfillment efficiency, with a shift from price wars to a focus on quality and user experience [4][6]. - Meituan leads the market with a well-established rider network and merchant ecosystem, while Alibaba and JD.com are rapidly expanding their instant retail capabilities through strategic integrations and user engagement initiatives [4][51]. 3. Platform Strategies - Meituan's competitive edge lies in its extensive rider network and digital operations, achieving over 1.5 billion orders as of July 2025 [4][51]. - Alibaba's integration of Ele.me and its main platform has resulted in rapid user conversion, with over 80 million orders within a short period [4][51]. - JD.com is leveraging its logistics and supply chain advantages to expand its instant delivery services, achieving significant order volumes shortly after launching its delivery service [4][51]. 4. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of user retention and the need for platforms to build strong supply chain capabilities and quality merchant offerings to sustain growth in the long term [5][6]. - The shift towards high-frequency consumption scenarios is expected to drive cross-selling opportunities, enhancing overall platform engagement and user activity [5][6].

Industry Environment - Chinese companies' overseas expansion has shifted from "business supplement" to "business necessity," emphasizing the importance of local adaptation, brand building, and talent development [2] - The global trade environment remains tense, particularly affecting the solar industry, with a significant decline in exports to the U.S. and Europe, while Southeast Asia shows growth in component exports [3][4] - The cultural products sector is experiencing rapid growth in overseas markets, with digital content and gaming becoming key areas for international competitiveness [5] - The food and beverage market in Indonesia and Thailand shows strong consumer demand, with significant market sizes of nearly $50 billion and $40 billion respectively [6] - The gaming and esports industry is rapidly developing, with policies supporting international expansion and a notable increase in overseas sales revenue [7] Key Brand Dynamics - LABUBU, a trendy toy IP, exemplifies the successful global expansion of Chinese creative products, with significant growth in overseas markets [15] - iFLYTEK has established a global presence with its AI products, achieving substantial revenue growth and expanding its international market reach [17] - BlueFocus plans to go public in Hong Kong, focusing on AI development and international business expansion, despite low profit margins [18] - BYD has seen remarkable sales growth in Europe and Asia, surpassing Tesla in several markets, showcasing its strong global competitiveness [19] - Junlebao is enhancing its international image and product quality to address challenges in the dairy industry as it expands overseas [21] - Anjoy Foods is launching an IPO to optimize its supply chain and expand its global footprint, with a significant market share in the frozen food sector [22] - Haitian Flavor Industry's IPO faced challenges due to market concerns over its revenue structure, highlighting the need for successful overseas market penetration [23] - Meituan is expanding its instant retail strategy internationally, leveraging its existing infrastructure and local partnerships to enhance its global presence [26] - YI Technology has achieved significant market share in the global camera industry through innovation and a strong international strategy [27]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to face significant pressure on profits due to intensified competition in the food delivery and instant retail sectors, despite an increase in order volume. Group 1: Financial Projections - For Q2 2025, the company anticipates adjusted net profit to be 7.7 billion yuan, with revenue expected to grow by 13% year-on-year to 92.9 billion yuan, resulting in an adjusted net profit margin of 8.3% [1] - The company's core local business operating profit is projected to decline by 33% year-on-year to 10.2 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 15.2% [1] - The overall operating profit margin for the core local business is expected to decrease to 12.6% for the full year, with a total operating profit of 35.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 33% year-on-year decline [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The food delivery market is experiencing heightened competition, particularly with competitors like JD.com and Taobao launching aggressive subsidy campaigns, which have led to a significant increase in order volume [1] - The company has responded to competition by implementing various promotional strategies, including large consumer coupons and new product offerings, which have resulted in a 14% year-on-year increase in food delivery order volume for Q2 2025 [1] - Instant retail orders have also surged, with peak order volume reaching 150 million, driven by the company's participation in promotional events [2] Group 3: New Business Developments - The company has decided to further scale back its Meituan Youxuan business, leading to a reduction in expected losses for new businesses from 10.4 billion yuan to 6.7 billion yuan for the year [2] - Despite the reduction in losses, the revenue growth forecast for new businesses has been adjusted down to 10% due to limited contributions from overseas expansion and the closure of operations in many regions [2] Group 4: Valuation Adjustments - The company has revised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 30% and 19% respectively, now projecting 28.6 billion yuan and 43.8 billion yuan [2] - The target price has been lowered by 12.4% to 155 HKD, reflecting a 20 times adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, with a potential upside of 23.5% [2]

昨天，市场监管总局约谈饿了么、美团、京东三家平台企业，要求进一步规范促销行为，理性参与竞 争。 市场监管总局约谈三家平台企业，要求相关平台企业严格遵守《中华人民共和国电子商务法》《中华人 民共和国反不正当竞争法》《中华人民共和国食品安全法》等法律法规规定，严格落实主体责任，进一 步规范促销行为，理性参与竞争，共同构建消费者、商家、外卖骑手和平台企业等多方共赢的良好生 态，促进餐饮服务行业规范健康持续发展。 最近几个周末，点外卖仿佛成了周末"全民运动"。 据三家平台披露的周末数据，美团单日订单量突破1.5亿单，淘宝闪购达到8000万单，而京东外卖在近 期未公布相关数据，但在"618"活动时透露外卖日订单量突破2500万。这意味着，中国外卖行业的单日 总单量已经从年初的1亿单增长至约2.5亿单。一场围绕中国人餐桌的外卖"三国杀"正硝烟四起。 ■解析 外卖进入 "百亿对决"时代 "战况"升级的节点，可追溯至今年6月30日。当天，阿里确立发起淘宝闪购的百日增长计划，核心策略 是在每周六冲单。 在更早的2月，京东官宣进军外卖市场，0佣金招募商家，就连刘强东都下场送外卖。如今，美团推出0 元券、0.1秒杀等大量补贴活动， ...