Group 1 - The competition in the fresh food delivery market, particularly in the front warehouse segment, is intensifying, with Xiaoxiang Supermarket launching a nationwide offensive that has caused traditional supermarkets significant distress [2] - In the Pearl River Delta, the online home delivery orders of some traditional supermarkets have reverted to levels seen three years ago, diminishing their enthusiasm to treat home delivery as a new growth engine [2] - Some traditional supermarkets have referred to Xiaoxiang Supermarket as a "wall," indicating the competitive pressure they are facing [2] Group 2 - To align with Alibaba's instant retail strategy and to drive traffic to its platform, Hema is reviving its independent front warehouse operations, which are more efficient in fulfilling orders [2] - Hema is currently rapidly expanding its footprint to accommodate the growing demand for online home delivery orders from Alibaba [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recently, Meituan has reported that fraudsters are impersonating its services, including Meituan Waimai, Meituan Flash Purchase, and others, to deceive users into providing personal information and participating in scams [1] Group 1: Fraudulent Activities - Fraudsters are using phrases like "scan to receive red envelopes," "referral rewards," and "business cooperation" to lure users [1] - Meituan Flash Purchase and Xiaoxiang Supermarket have not authorized any third parties to conduct recruitment activities [1] - Meituan Waimai has never launched any "Supreme Experience Card" promotions, and Meituan Drone has not authorized any third parties for promotional activities like "new user cash back" [1] Group 2: Company Response - The company will continue to pursue legal action against fraudulent activities that misuse its name [1]

Core Points - The article highlights recent fraudulent activities using the names of various Meituan services, including Meituan Waimai, Meituan Shanguo, and others, to deceive users into providing personal information or downloading unknown apps [1] - Meituan emphasizes that it has not authorized any third parties to conduct recruitment or promotional activities, and warns users to be vigilant against these scams [1] - The company will continue to pursue legal action against those who misuse its name for fraudulent purposes [1] Summary by Categories Fraudulent Activities - Scammers are using phrases like "scan to get a red envelope" and "recruitment with rewards" to lure users into scams [1] - Specific fraudulent offers mentioned include "800 yuan takeaway supreme experience card" and "cash back for registering unmanned delivery" [1] Company Response - Meituan clarifies that it has not launched any "supreme experience card" promotions and has not authorized any third parties for promotional activities [1] - The company urges users to be cautious and to verify the legitimacy of any offers claiming to be associated with Meituan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of combining an effective market with a proactive government, reflecting a deepened understanding of the socialist market economy in China [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The platform economy relies on the innovative vitality and endogenous motivation of business entities to precisely match supply and demand, leading to transformative changes in production and lifestyle [1] - Industry participants, exemplified by the small elephant supermarket, enhance supply chain digitalization and quality-price ratio to effectively meet consumer demands for "fresh and fast" products [1] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The company aims to continuously promote digital upgrades in service retail and commodity retail on both the demand and supply sides, guiding new supply through new demand and creating new demand through new supply [1] - The vast scale of the Chinese market nurtures technology, experience, and models that can deeply participate in industrial cooperation and division of labor in broader markets [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is committed to fostering new business formats through technological innovation, contributing to the construction of a unified domestic market and expanding high-level openness [1] - Looking towards the "14th Five-Year Plan," private enterprises are expected to unite and strive for new opportunities in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of combining an effective market with a proactive government, reflecting a deepened understanding of the socialist market economy in China [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The platform economy relies on the innovative vitality and endogenous motivation of business entities to precisely match supply and demand, leading to transformative changes in production and lifestyle [2]. - Industry participants, exemplified by the small elephant supermarket, enhance supply chain digitalization and quality-price ratio to effectively meet consumer demands for "fresh and fast" products [2]. Group 2: Company Strategy - As a technology retail enterprise, Meituan aims to continuously promote digital upgrades in both service retail and commodity retail, driving new supply through new demand and creating new demand through new supply [2]. - Meituan is committed to fostering new business formats through technological innovation, contributing to the construction of a unified domestic market and expanding high-level opening-up [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The vast scale of China's market nurtures technology, experience, and models that can deeply participate in industrial cooperation and division of labor in broader markets [2]. - The article highlights the collective efforts of private enterprises to strive for new opportunities and breakthroughs in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects Meituan's revenue for Q3 2025 to be 97.8 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 4.5%, while operating profit is projected to be -18.5 billion yuan and adjusted net profit at -15.9 billion yuan, primarily due to intense competition in the food delivery subsidy market [1] Delivery Business - In Q3 2025, Meituan's instant delivery order volume is expected to grow by 17.0% year-over-year, and food delivery order volume is projected to increase by 14.3%, driven by enhanced platform subsidies [2] - However, the intense subsidy competition in Q3 has led to a significant decline in Meituan's user experience (UE), with expectations of UE dropping to -2.8 yuan, compared to 1.48 yuan in Q3 2024 and -0.21 yuan in Q2 2025 [2] - The company anticipates a return to rational operations in Q4, which may alleviate the ongoing subsidy competition [2] Dining and Travel Business - Meituan's dining and travel business revenue is expected to grow by 5% year-over-year in Q3 2025, although there is pressure on offline dining consumption due to increased food delivery subsidies [2] - The operating profit margin (OPM) for the dining segment is projected to reach 27.8%, reflecting a decline of 5.7 and 5.2 percentage points compared to previous quarters, attributed to a higher proportion of revenue from lower-tier cities and increased subsidy investments [2] New Business Initiatives - New business revenue is expected to reach 28.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 17.5%, although the operating loss is projected at 2.4 billion yuan [3] - The company is expanding its Xiaoxiang supermarket brand in response to the instant retail trend, leveraging supply chain and brand advantages for competitive growth [3] - Meituan's international food delivery expansion is progressing steadily, with plans to enter the Brazilian market in Q4, indicating long-term potential for growth [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 376.8 billion, 444.8 billion, and 510.2 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits projected at -7.9 billion, 35.4 billion, and 54.4 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The company maintains its valuation despite rising valuations of comparable companies, emphasizing the unsustainable nature of current subsidy competition [4] - A target price of 136.0 Hong Kong dollars is set for Meituan, with a "buy" rating maintained [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 136.00 [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face significant pressure on revenue growth and profits in Q3 2025 due to intense competition in the food delivery sector, particularly from irrational subsidies [1][2]. - Despite short-term challenges, the report remains optimistic about the company's long-term efficiency advantages and brand strength, anticipating a return to rational operations in Q4 2025 [1][5]. - The company is also making progress in its overseas food delivery business, with plans to expand into the Brazilian market [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For Q3 2025, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 978 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 4.5%, but with an expected operating loss of RMB 18.5 billion and an adjusted net loss of RMB 15.9 billion [1][5]. - The report forecasts revenues of RMB 3,768 billion, RMB 4,448 billion, and RMB 5,102 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB -79 billion, RMB 354 billion, and RMB 544 billion [5][10]. Business Segments Performance - The instant delivery segment is expected to see a year-over-year order volume increase of 17.0% in Q3 2025, driven by increased platform subsidies, although user experience (UE) is projected to decline significantly [2]. - The dine-in segment is anticipated to grow by 5% year-over-year in Q3 2025, but faces pressure from offline dining consumption and increased competition from delivery services [3]. - New business revenue is expected to reach RMB 284 billion in Q3 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 17.5%, although it will incur an operating loss of RMB 2.4 billion [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, assigning PE multiples of 7x for the food delivery business and 18x for the dine-in business for 2026, with a target price of HKD 136.00 per share [5][14]. - The company’s estimated PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 13.00, 15.85, and 10.31 respectively [10][24].

Core Insights - Meituan's self-operated supermarket "Happy Monkey" is set to open its first store in Northern China on October 24, 2023, in the Mentougou Shantou Plaza, covering an area of approximately 1,000 square meters, marking the fifth store opened by Meituan in two months [1][3] - The "hard discount" sector has become a competitive battleground this year, with major players like Hema, JD.com, and traditional supermarkets like Wumart and Yonghui firmly established in the Northern market, posing significant challenges for new entrants like Happy Monkey [1][3] Store Launch Details - The first store in Beijing will feature promotional activities on opening day, including a lottery with prizes such as electric vehicles and camping cars [3] - Happy Monkey's product offerings will focus on self-operated brands, with plans to gradually introduce online ordering and offline delivery services post-opening [3] Market Positioning - Happy Monkey aims to create a consumer memory point around "affordable prices," targeting price-sensitive customers, contrasting with the positioning of Meituan's other supermarket, "Little Elephant," which emphasizes online ordering and rapid delivery [4][8] - The store's location in a densely populated residential area is expected to ensure a sufficient order density, which is crucial for attracting foot traffic [6] Competitive Landscape - The discount supermarket model is increasingly reliant on self-owned brands to enhance price competitiveness and drive store traffic, with established players like Ole' and Hema already having significant self-owned brand market shares [8][9] - The market in Beijing exhibits a clear consumer segmentation, necessitating Happy Monkey's ability to develop localized products that cater to Northern tastes [6][10] Strategic Considerations - Meituan's cautious approach in opening stores outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing reflects a focus on cost considerations [5] - The integration of Happy Monkey's operations with Meituan's delivery network could meet modern consumer demands for high cost-performance and immediacy [9][10] Future Outlook - Happy Monkey is still in the early stages of demand cultivation, self-owned brand development, and offline operations, which will be critical for its competitive positioning in the hard discount sector [10][11] - The potential for success hinges on avoiding the pitfall of prioritizing scale over value, which could lead to losing competitive advantages in a crowded market [11]

Core Insights - Meituan's self-operated supermarket "Happy Monkey" will open its first northern store in Beijing on October 24, covering approximately 1,000 square meters, marking the fifth store opened by Meituan in two months [1][2] - The discount supermarket sector has become highly competitive, with major players like Hema, JD, and traditional supermarkets like Wumart and Yonghui firmly established in the northern market [1][2] - Supply chain efficiency is crucial for Meituan to succeed in this competitive landscape, as it aims to differentiate itself from established giants [1][4] Store Launch Details - The first Happy Monkey store in Beijing is located in the Shantou Investment Plaza, with promotional activities planned for the opening day, including a lottery with prizes such as electric vehicles [2] - Another Happy Monkey store is set to open in Sanhe City, Hebei Province, on October 17, indicating Meituan's accelerated expansion in the discount supermarket sector [2] Consumer Appeal - "Affordable prices" are a key selling point for Happy Monkey, with products like pure milk priced at 23.9 yuan per box and freshly baked egg tarts at 5.9 yuan for four [3] - Happy Monkey targets price-sensitive consumers and emphasizes offline shopping experiences, contrasting with the online-focused strategy of similar brands like Xiaoxiang Supermarket [3] Market Strategy - Happy Monkey's cautious entry into Beijing, focusing on areas outside the Fifth Ring Road, reflects a strategic consideration of costs [4] - The store's location near densely populated residential areas and high-traffic venues is expected to drive customer traffic and order density [4] Competitive Landscape - Major competitors have established significant advantages in private label products, with brands like Ole' and Hema NB achieving over 60% private label sales [5] - The Beijing market exhibits a dual demand for quality and price sensitivity, posing challenges for Happy Monkey in localizing its private label offerings [5] Brand Differentiation - The use of private label products not only enhances price competitiveness but also serves as a draw for customers, potentially increasing sales of regular-priced items [6] - Meituan's interest in physical retail is growing, with plans for more stores like Xiaoxiang Supermarket in various locations [6] Industry Trends - The discount supermarket sector has become a focal point for major players, with Hema's community supermarket model expanding rapidly [7] - Meituan's data advantages may allow Happy Monkey to efficiently focus on product categories that align with the discount model, reducing customer decision-making costs [7] Future Considerations - Happy Monkey is still in the early stages of demand cultivation, private label development, and offline operations, which are critical for future competitiveness [8] - Success will depend on the ability to optimize supply based on dynamic demand, develop unique private label products, and enhance customer loyalty through refined operations [8]

Core Insights - Meituan's self-operated supermarket "Happy Monkey" will open its first store in Northern China on October 24, located in the Mentougou Commercial Plaza, covering an area of approximately 1,000 square meters. This marks the fifth store opened by Meituan in two months [1][5] - The "hard discount" sector has become a competitive battleground, with major players like Hema and JD.com, as well as traditional supermarkets like Wumart and Yonghui, firmly established in the Northern market. Supply chain efficiency is a critical challenge for Meituan to overcome in order to succeed [4][6] Company Expansion - After testing the waters in Hangzhou, Meituan is now focusing on Beijing, with promotional activities for the new store including giveaways of items like electric bikes and camping cars on opening day. The store will also gradually introduce online ordering and offline delivery services [5][6] - Another Happy Monkey store is set to open in Sanhe City, Langfang, Hebei Province, on October 17, indicating Meituan's accelerated expansion in the discount supermarket sector [6] Market Positioning - Happy Monkey aims to create a consumer memory of "affordable prices," with products like 23.9 yuan per box of pure milk and 5.9 yuan for four freshly baked egg tarts attracting attention. The store targets price-sensitive customers, contrasting with Meituan's other brand, Xiaoxiang Supermarket, which emphasizes online ordering and quick delivery [6][10] - The first store in Beijing is strategically located in a densely populated area, ensuring a sufficient order density. This location strategy is also applied to other Happy Monkey stores in Hangzhou and Langfang [7] Competitive Landscape - Major players in the discount supermarket sector have established significant advantages in private label products, with brands like Aoleqi and Hema NB having over 90% and 60% of their sales from private labels, respectively. This trend poses a challenge for Happy Monkey to develop localized private label products that cater to Northern tastes [8][12] - The competition in the hard discount sector is intensifying, with various companies racing to expand their market presence. Hema's recent rebranding and expansion of its community supermarket chain exemplify this trend [11][12] Operational Challenges - Meituan's entry into the discount supermarket space requires navigating different operational dynamics compared to its online business, including in-store layout and product display [11] - Happy Monkey's success will depend on its ability to respond to dynamic consumer demands, develop distinctive private label products, and implement refined operational strategies to build customer loyalty [12]