本文为节选内容 更多报告，关注公众号：大消费市场调研 美团：复用配送网络强化规模效应，闪电仓模式迅速拓宽市场 美团的即时零售业务主要包括美团闪购、小象超市。1）美团闪购：采用与各类零售商家以及本地商家合作的模式，依托美团外卖配送网络，提供日用 品、食品、医药健康等商品的快速配送服务。其中闪电仓是一种纯线上的便利店前置仓模式，由美团闪购于2020 年推出，专注于服务线上用户，能够在 半小时内将商品送达消费者手中。商家负责选址、租仓、采购、日常运营及人员管理，美团提供线上流量扶持、选品建议、智能调度系统（如牵牛花系 统）及履约培训，帮助商家优化库存周转和配送效率。据21 世纪商业评论数据，一个闪电仓的投资门槛为25 万元，大部分为货品成本，其余为房租、货 架、人员成本，总投资额为20-50 万元。2）小象超市：美团自营的即时零售前置仓项目。据联商网数据，初始投入约200 万元左右。 | 业态名称 | 推出时间 | 模式特点 | 经营状态 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 快驴 | 2016 年 | B2B 生鲜批发 | 公司中 | | 小象生鲜(原掌鱼生鲜) | 2017 年 | 自营生 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in adjusted profit for Q2 2025, with adjusted profit down 89% year-on-year, reflecting challenges in profitability amidst increased competition and operational costs [1][3] - Core local business remains the primary revenue source, with revenue of 653.5 billion yuan in Q2 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but operating profit decreased by 75.6% [2][3] - New business revenue grew by 22.8% year-on-year to 264.9 billion yuan, but the operating loss was 18.8 billion yuan, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability [3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 918.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, but operating profit was only 2.3 billion yuan, down 98% [1] - The adjusted net profit margin was 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year, highlighting pressure on profitability [1][3] - The core local business's operating profit margin was 5.7%, down 19.4 percentage points, indicating a significant decline in profitability [2] Business Segments - The delivery service segment saw revenue of 237 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.8%, while the commission and online marketing segments grew by 12.9% and 10.5%, respectively [2] - The takeout business is expected to see double-digit growth in order volume, but average order value (AOV) is projected to decline slightly, leading to low single-digit revenue growth [2] - The company plans to exit underperforming areas in its new business and focus on expanding its core regions, particularly through the small elephant supermarket initiative [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates significant losses in the core local business in Q3 2025 due to intensified competition and increased strategic investments [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected losses of 77 billion yuan in 2025, followed by profits of 318 billion yuan and 466 billion yuan in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4] - The company maintains a medium-term rating of "outperform" against the market, while closely monitoring competitive dynamics in the industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in adjusted net profit and gross margin due to intense competition in the instant retail sector, while new business revenues continue to grow but are impacted by overseas expansion losses [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 11.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 6.1% [1] - The gross margin was 33.1%, down from 41.2% in the same period last year [2] - Adjusted net profit was 1.49 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year decrease of 89.0% [1][2] - The adjusted profit margin was 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-over-year and 11 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1][2] Business Segments - Core local business revenue reached 65.35 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-over-year, with delivery revenue at 23.66 billion yuan (up 2.8% year-over-year) and commission revenue at 24.95 billion yuan (up 12.9% year-over-year) [1] - New business revenue was 26.49 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 22.8%, but incurred a loss of 1.88 billion yuan due to overseas expansion [1][3] Competitive Landscape - Intense competition in instant retail is squeezing the company's profits, with significant increases in delivery subsidies, rider costs, and user subsidies [2] - The company’s operating profit is under pressure due to the competitive landscape, which is influenced by competitors' strategies [2] Growth Prospects - The company is expanding its new business segments, with strong growth in instant retail and plans for further expansion in both domestic and international markets [3] - The company has established over 50,000 flash warehouses nationwide and is exploring new delivery models [3] Investment Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 374 billion, 427.7 billion, and 489.5 billion yuan respectively, with a projected net profit of -10.2 billion, 15.8 billion, and 38.5 billion yuan [3] - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 712.9 billion yuan, with a target price of 127.93 HKD [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q2 2025 earnings with revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.1%. However, the gross margin decreased to 33.1% from 41.2% in the same period last year, and the adjusted net profit was 1.49 billion yuan, down 89.0% year-on-year [1][4] - The intense competition in instant retail is suppressing profits, and the recovery of profitability in the short term needs to be observed in terms of competitive dynamics and new business developments [1][4] - The core local business revenue reached 65.35 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year, while new business revenue grew by 22.8% to 26.49 billion yuan, driven by grocery retail and overseas expansion [1][4] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 337.59 billion yuan, 373.99 billion yuan, 427.68 billion yuan, and 489.47 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 10.8%, 14.4%, and 14.4% [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 43.77 billion yuan, -10.21 billion yuan, 15.78 billion yuan, and 38.55 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.2%, -123.3%, 254.6%, and 144.3% [3] - The target price for the stock is set at 127.93 HKD, with the current price at 96.55 HKD, indicating a potential upside [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Views - The report indicates that increased subsidies have negatively impacted operational performance, with a significant decline in adjusted profit by 89% year-on-year for Q2 2025. Revenue reached 91.84 billion yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year, but operating profit fell to 230 million yuan, down 98% [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment remains the primary source of profit, generating 65.35 billion yuan in revenue, a 7.7% increase year-on-year. However, operating profit in this segment dropped by 75.6% [2][11]. - New business losses have narrowed sequentially, with revenue of 26.49 billion yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year, and an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, showing improvement from previous quarters [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, adjusted profit decreased by 89% to 1.49 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment's revenue was 65.35 billion yuan, with a significant decline in operating profit margin to 5.7%, down 19.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][11]. - New business revenue reached 26.49 billion yuan, with a narrowed operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, improving from previous quarters [3][12]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 370.34 billion yuan in 2025, 423.48 billion yuan in 2026, and 485.09 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 14.3%, and 14.5% [5][22]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are -7.71 billion yuan in 2025, 31.76 billion yuan in 2026, and 46.57 billion yuan in 2027 [5][22]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is intensifying, leading to increased strategic investments by the company to maintain market leadership and brand recognition [3][20]. - The company plans to focus on core areas and expand its supermarket business while exiting underperforming regions [3][12].

2025Q2 盈利能力承压走低。2025Q2，毛利率同比-8.1pct，系骑手补贴增 加及海外业务扩张所致；销售/研发/管理费率各+6.5/+0.3/-0.4pct， 竞争加剧推广投放增加；经调整净利润率 1.6%，同比-14.9pct。 预计第三季度核心本地商业会出现较大规模亏损。考虑到当下竞争加剧现 状，公司持续加大战略性投入，公司核心本地商业业务在第三季度仍将 出现较大规模亏损。一方面，公司会增加激励以确保价格竞争力与行业 领先的配送服务，其次会加大营销投入以强化品牌认知。 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月15日 美团-W（03690.HK） 优于大市 补贴加大拖累经营表现，持续跟踪竞争格局变化 2025Q2经调整溢利同降89%。2025Q2，公司实现收入918.4亿元，同比+11.7%； 经营溢利 2.3 亿元，同比-98.0%，经营利润率为 0.2%，同比-13.4pct；经调 整溢利为 14.9 亿元，同比-89.0%，经调整净利率为 1.6%，同比-14.9pct。 到店业务系核心本地商业的主要盈利来源。2025Q2，核心本地商业收入 653.5 亿元/+7.7%，其中配送服务/佣金/在线营销 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][15]. Core Views - The report indicates that short-term competition is putting pressure on profits, but there is optimism for long-term profitability recovery due to efficiency advantages [5]. - Meituan's core local business revenue for Q2 2025 was 653.5 billion yuan, which was below Bloomberg consensus expectations by 3.3% [1]. - New business revenue reached 264.9 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 2.1% [4]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q2 2025, Meituan reported total revenue of 918.4 billion yuan, which was 2.0% lower than Bloomberg consensus expectations. EBIT was 2.3 billion yuan, falling short of expectations by 97.2%. Adjusted net profit was approximately 14.9 billion yuan, also below expectations by 84.8% [1]. Core Local Business - The core local business faced competitive pressures, resulting in lower-than-expected revenue and profit. Revenue was 653.5 billion yuan, with delivery service revenue at 236.6 billion yuan, commission revenue at 249.5 billion yuan, and online marketing revenue at 135.5 billion yuan. Operating profit was 37.2 billion yuan, which was below expectations by 69.0% [1]. Food Delivery - The company expanded its user base and improved core user engagement and transaction frequency. Collaborations with restaurant merchants led to innovations that benefited both small and chain restaurants. The Meituan Flash Purchase service saw strong growth in order volume and total transaction value [2]. In-store and Travel - Meituan is expanding into new categories and innovating supply models while penetrating lower-tier markets. The company is enhancing digital transformation and standardization for merchants, providing integrated solutions to improve operational efficiency [3]. New Business - New business revenue was 264.9 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, which was better than expectations. The company is optimizing its grocery retail strategy and expanding its overseas presence with Keeta [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while short-term competition may impact profit performance, Meituan's strong merchant base and user reviews provide a solid competitive moat. Future profitability in the core local business is expected to improve, and new businesses are anticipated to continue narrowing losses. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3700 billion, 4356 billion, and 4939 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 9 billion, 216 billion, and 465 billion yuan [5].

Overall Performance - In FY2025Q2, the company reported revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, which was below Bloomberg consensus estimate of 93.69 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [1] - Adjusted net profit totaled 1.49 billion yuan, significantly lower than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 9.85 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 89.0% [1] Core Local Business - Core local business revenue reached 65.3 billion yuan, below the consensus estimate of 67.5 billion yuan, with an operating profit of 3.7 billion yuan, also below the expected 12 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year decrease of 75.6% [1] - The decline in performance was primarily due to increased subsidies starting in Q2, which negatively impacted the profitability of the food delivery business [2] New Business Developments - New business revenue was 26.5 billion yuan, slightly above the consensus estimate of 26 billion yuan, but the operating loss expanded by 43.1% year-on-year to 1.9 billion yuan, compared to the expected 2.4 billion yuan [1] - The company has expanded its "Little Elephant" supermarket model to nearly 1,000 front warehouses in about 20 cities, with plans to cover all first- and second-tier cities in the long term [3] Market Competition and Strategy - The competitive landscape has intensified, particularly with Alibaba entering the food delivery market, leading to increased subsidies and expected larger losses in Q3 [2] - The company aims to leverage its first-mover advantage in the flash purchase business, which has seen over 50% year-on-year growth in lower-tier markets [2] Future Outlook - The company is sacrificing short-term revenue for long-term strategic positioning, indicating a commitment to gaining market share despite potential fluctuations in profitability due to increased subsidies and operational expenses [3] - Projections for Q3 indicate an average loss of 1.44 yuan per food delivery order, with an adjusted net loss expected to reach 5.351 billion yuan [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 373.966 billion yuan, 418.687 billion yuan, and 465.337 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1.211 billion yuan, 38.646 billion yuan, and 57.476 billion yuan respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (3690.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - In FY2025Q2, the company achieved revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, which was below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 93.69 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. The adjusted net profit totaled 1.49 billion yuan, significantly lower than the expected 9.85 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 89.0%. The report suggests that the company is sacrificing short-term revenue performance for long-term strategic choices, reflecting its determination to gain market share. Although short-term profitability may fluctuate due to increased investments, the reliance on subsidies for competition is not sustainable, and such performance disturbances do not alter the long-term growth trend. The current intensified competition is accelerating the overall penetration of instant retail, opening up upward space for the company. Attention should be paid to the marginal turning point of subsidy investments, which could lead to a return of company value [2][6][9]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The core local business revenue was 65.3 billion yuan, below the consensus estimate of 67.5 billion yuan, with an operating profit of 3.7 billion yuan, also below the expected 12 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 75.6%. New business revenue was 26.5 billion yuan, slightly above the expected 26 billion yuan, but the operating loss expanded by 43.1% to 1.9 billion yuan, compared to the expected 2.4 billion yuan. The significant decline in performance was mainly due to the impact of subsidies starting in Q2, which affected the profitability of the food delivery business [9]. Core Local Business - Short-term subsidies are disrupting profitability, and losses are expected to widen in Q3. With the current subsidy pace, following Alibaba's entry into the food delivery market in May, subsidies have increased. It is anticipated that Meituan's food delivery losses will primarily occur in June, with further expansion of subsidies in July and August. The average loss per order is expected to exceed that of June, and the future subsidy trend will depend on Alibaba's investments. The company has indicated that significant losses will occur in Q3 for food delivery and core local business, but the gap in advantages over competitors will further widen. The flash purchase business has expanded to over 50,000 locations nationwide, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 50% in lower-tier markets, which is expected to create new growth for the company [9]. New Business - The company is accelerating the expansion of its Xiaoxiang supermarket and steadily advancing its overseas business. By the end of the reporting period, approximately 1,000 front warehouses for Xiaoxiang supermarkets had been established in nearly 20 cities. With adjustments to Meituan's preferred offerings, more resources will be allocated to Xiaoxiang's expansion, which is expected to cover all first- and second-tier cities in the country, aiming for a long-term profit margin target of 3%. In terms of overseas business, Keeta has expanded to 20 cities in Saudi Arabia, achieving a market share of first in Hong Kong and second in Saudi Arabia, with an expected GMV of 100 billion yuan by 2033 [9]. Investment Recommendations and Profit Forecasts - Looking ahead, the report emphasizes that the company is making a long-term strategic choice by sacrificing short-term revenue performance to gain market share. Due to increased subsidies and operational expenses, profitability may experience unexpected fluctuations in the short term. However, the reliance on subsidies for competition is not sustainable, and such performance disturbances do not alter the long-term growth trend. Under a neutral assumption, it is expected that Meituan's average loss per order in Q3 will be 1.44 yuan, corresponding to an adjusted net loss of 5.351 billion yuan. If subsequent subsidy reductions are better than expected, the average profit per order for food delivery could recover to 0.37 yuan in 2026, leading to an adjusted net profit of 38.6 billion yuan for the year. The projected overall revenue for Meituan from 2025 to 2027 is 373.966 billion, 418.687 billion, and 465.337 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 12.11 billion, 38.646 billion, and 57.476 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE ratios for 2026 and 2027 at the current stock price are 15x and 10x, maintaining a "Buy" rating [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of Meituan, particularly in the food delivery sector, highlighting the company's financial performance and strategic adjustments in response to intense competition [2][6][20]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Meituan reported revenue of 918 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. The core local commerce segment saw revenue growth of 7.7% to 653 billion RMB, but operating profit plummeted by 75.6% to 37 billion RMB, with a significant decline in operating profit margin [2][3]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was 2.78 billion RMB, reflecting an 81.5% year-on-year decrease, indicating substantial pressure on profitability due to increased competition and costs [3][8]. Competitive Landscape - The article emphasizes the impact of subsidy wars on Meituan's performance, noting that while user engagement increased, the average order value (AOV) declined, leading to a mismatch between revenue growth and order volume [7][8]. - Meituan's management has expressed a commitment to focusing on fundamental aspects of the business, such as supply, delivery service, and pricing, to navigate the competitive environment effectively [6][20]. Strategic Adjustments - Meituan has restructured its new business segments, particularly by exiting poorly performing areas in its grocery retail division and concentrating resources on the more promising Xiaoxiang Supermarket [4][18]. - The new business segment reported a revenue increase of 22.8% year-on-year, driven by the expansion of Xiaoxiang Supermarket and overseas operations, although it still faced significant operating losses [5][18]. Long-term Vision - Meituan's management has reiterated its long-term growth strategy, aiming for sustainable profitability rather than short-term gains through unsustainable subsidies. The focus is on enhancing operational efficiency and building a robust ecosystem [9][20]. - The company has set ambitious goals for its overseas business, Keeta, aiming for an annual GMV of 100 billion USD by 2033, indicating a strong commitment to international expansion [19]. Innovations and New Initiatives - Meituan is actively pursuing supply-side innovations, such as the "Raccoon Canteen" model, which aims to streamline operations for merchants and improve service quality [11]. - The company is also expanding its instant retail business, Meituan Flash Purchase, which has seen significant growth and is positioned to compete with traditional e-commerce platforms [14][20].