Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland have led to increased demand for safe-haven assets, driving up the prices of gold and silver to new highs [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Events and Market Reactions - The situation in Greenland has escalated, with U.S. President Trump asserting his intention to control the territory, which has raised concerns among European investors [1]. - European institutions, including Denmark's Akademiker Pension, are beginning to sell off U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting a reassessment of their safe-haven status [1]. - The Polish central bank's decision to purchase 150 tons of gold is seen as a significant factor supporting gold prices amid rising geopolitical tensions [2]. Group 2: Price Movements and Predictions - Gold prices are expected to surpass $5,000 per ounce due to new geopolitical uncertainties and concerns regarding U.S. monetary policy [4]. - Silver prices are projected to reach $100 per ounce, although a potential correction may occur as physical shortages improve [4]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased significantly, indicating a strong upward trend in silver prices, which is also contributing to gold's rise [3]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Analysts from various institutions highlight that the ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade policies are primary drivers of the current gold price surge [4]. - The influx of central bank purchases and ETF investments has further propelled gold prices to unprecedented levels [4].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 近日，摩根资产管理举办新年投资策略会，就2026年全球及中国市场的宏观环境、大类资产配置以及A 股投资机遇展开系统分析。 摩根资产管理中国资深环球市场策略师蒋先威表示，展望2026年，全球经济增速或将放缓，但随着利率 逐步下行，主要成熟市场货币政策收紧节奏有望趋缓，低利率环境仍将对经济形成支撑。对中国而言， 外部不确定性减弱、政策环境保持友好，叠加企业盈利周期触底回升以及"反内卷"政策对无序扩张的约 束，工业企业利润修复进程有望加快。 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：常福强 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 在资产配置层面，蒋先威指出，企业盈利改善有望支撑全球权益市场表现，但在高估值与地缘政治不确 定性并存的背景下，投资者需合理降低回报预期，并通过多元化配置分散风险。具体来看，美股科技板 块或持续受益于人工智能发展，市场风格有望向周期与价值扩散；欧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing a significant crisis, characterized by a historic surge in long-term bond yields, leading to a loss of confidence in Japan's fiscal discipline and prompting concerns about potential intervention by the Bank of Japan [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is witnessing a "collapse" with traders describing a scenario where "everyone is selling at all maturities simultaneously," resulting in a daily increase of over 25 basis points in 30-year and 40-year yields, with the latter briefly surpassing 4% [3][5]. - Analysts indicate that the current turmoil is not merely a reaction to external shocks but rather a manifestation of a long-standing structural issue of "lack of natural demand" in the Japanese bond market [3][10]. - The recent volatility has been exacerbated by political uncertainties, particularly Prime Minister Kishi's campaign promise to lower the food consumption tax without a clear funding source [3][5]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Japan faces a dilemma: either significantly cut spending, which is politically unpalatable, or have the central bank intervene, likely through unlimited bond purchases, which could have adverse effects on the yen [5][7]. - The potential for the Bank of Japan to return to yield curve control (YCC) is seen as a "logical endgame," but it poses risks to the currency, especially if aggressive interventions lead to a depreciation of the yen beyond the critical 160 level [5][7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The market's reaction to the finance minister's calls for calm has been limited, as investors are increasingly unwilling to buy long-term Japanese bonds unconditionally, reflecting a broader loss of confidence in fiscal policy [10][11]. - Concerns are growing that Japan may face a situation similar to the "Truss moment" in the UK, where fiscal expansion could lead to a crisis of credibility in policy [10][11]. - The lack of natural demand for ultra-long Japanese bonds raises fears that without official intervention, selling pressure may not subside on its own, necessitating some form of policy "circuit breaker" [13].

达利欧担心，如果互信受损，持有大量美元和美国国债的国家，可能不再愿意继续为美国的财政赤字提 供融资。与此同时，美国仍在持续大量发债，只要任何一方信心动摇，就会形成危险局面。 "我们都知道，美元的持有者，以及需要不断发行美元和债务的美国，其实彼此都在担心对方。如果其 他国家持有大量美元资产，却彼此缺乏信任，而我们又在大量生产美元，这就会成为一个重大问题。" 美国桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）最新警告称，在不安情绪和经济紧张加剧的背景下，外国 政府和投资者正在重新评估对美国资产的配置意愿。 达利欧在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛年会期间接受采访时称，随着美国总统特朗普采取更具进攻性的政治 路线，全球金融冲突可能进入一个新的阶段。 "贸易逆差和贸易战的另一面是资本和资本战争。如果你观察这些冲突，就无法忽视资本战争的可能 性。换句话说，人们对购买美国债务等资产的意愿，可能不再像以前那么强烈。" "当发生国际地缘政治冲突时，即便是盟友，也不愿意背负彼此的债务，而更倾向于转向'硬通货'。这 是合乎逻辑的，也是反复验证过的事实，在世界历史上屡见不鲜。" 达利欧再次强调分散投资的重要性，认为投资者不应过度依赖单一资产 ...

Group 1 - The financial storm brewing in the U.S. stock market is driven by a short-selling wave, rising bond yields, and increasing market risk aversion, indicating challenges to market stability [1][22][30] - The crisis began with the sudden decline of AI concept stocks, particularly AppLovin, which faced allegations of operational data issues and potential illegal funding, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [3][5][9] - The AI sector, previously viewed as a transformative force, is now under scrutiny as investors question its monetization potential, especially for companies relying on advertising revenue [5][8][30] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury yields have been rising, with the 10-year yield approaching 4.5%, reflecting growing market concerns about the long-term fiscal health of the U.S. [11][13] - The traditional view of U.S. Treasuries as safe assets is being challenged, as recent trends show simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [13][15] - The rising interest payments on U.S. debt are straining the federal budget, leading to concerns about the sustainability of the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [15][22] Group 3 - There is a notable divergence between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve regarding economic stimulus measures, complicating the response to market pressures [17][19] - The lack of a coordinated rescue plan, unlike during the 2008 financial crisis, has led to increased market anxiety, as both the government and the Fed operate independently [21][30] - BlackRock's CEO has warned that the current debt structure poses a significant threat to the economy, emphasizing the need for fundamental adjustments to avoid long-term stagnation [22][24][26] Group 4 - The current financial crisis reflects a profound adjustment in the U.S. financial structure, as reliance on capital market growth is being questioned amid rising debt and deficits [28][30] - Investors are reassessing risks and reallocating assets, indicating a broader "repricing" of the financial system rather than a temporary disruption [31][33] - The market's shift from viewing tech growth prospects to questioning the safety of U.S. Treasuries signifies a critical turning point in investor confidence and economic outlook [31][33]

伯里的目光聚焦在英伟达的财务报表上。 他特别指出，英伟达高达334亿美元的应收账款和198亿美元的库存，是一个危险的信号。 他认为，这暗示着下游 需求可能被高估，存在"渠道填充"的现象。 部分AI芯片可能积压在分销商或客户的仓库里，而非真正被市场消化。 在伯里公开他的巨额空头押注后不到一个月，另一件震动华尔街的事件发生了。 2026年1月20日，国际知名做空机构Capitalwatch发布了一份针对纳斯达克 上市公司AppLovin Corporation的做空报告。 这份长达67页的报告指控，这家专注于AI广告解决方案的明星公司，其股东结构涉嫌系统性的合规风险和重大 金融风险。 报告指出，主要股东Hao Tang及其背后的资本网络，涉嫌将来自东南亚的非法资金注入美国资本市场。 更核心的指控是，AppLovin的经营数据是通过造假 得来的，并且涉嫌从事洗钱业务。 这家公司的股价曾在AI热潮中，从2023年的最低点9.41美元，飙升至745美元，涨幅超过80倍。 在Capitalwatch预告报告 发布后的三天里，AppLovin的股价累计下跌了15%。 做空报告的发布，在华尔街引发了一轮关于AI商业模式可持续 ...

每经编辑｜金冥羽 当地时间1月20日，美国市场再现"股汇债三杀"。 美股三大指数大幅低开，截至发稿，道琼斯指数跌1.36%，标普500指数跌1.51%，纳斯达克综合指数跌1.78%。美股大型科技股全线下跌，英伟达、特斯 拉跌超3%，谷歌A、亚马逊、Meta跌超2%，苹果、微软跌超1%。 美债方面，美国30年期国债收益率日内上涨超8个基点至4.916%；美国10年期国债收益率日内最高触及4.309%，均创去年9月初以来新高。债券收益率和 价格走势相反，收益率上升意味着债券价格下跌。 美元指数报98.5055，跌幅达0.55%。 值得一提的是，欧洲主要股指亦大跌。截至发稿，英国富时100指数、法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数、意大利MIB指数均跌超1%。 比特币跌破90000美元，日内跌2.84%。 贵金属方面，现货黄金盘中突破4750美元，再度刷新历史新高。截至发稿，现货黄金涨1.57%，报4742.682美元/盎司，现货白银报94.944美元/盎司，日内 上涨0.58%，年内累计涨幅超过30%。 受此消息影响，欧元兑美元升至盘中高点1.1768，美国国债跌势延续。瑞典克朗和丹麦克朗兑美元上涨1%。 Akad ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4,694 per ounce, while silver peaked at $94.7295 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions [1][5] - The situation surrounding President Trump's attempt to acquire Greenland has raised concerns about a potential trade war between the US and Europe, driving demand for safe-haven assets [1][8] - The ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical instability has made investors reliant on financial assets uneasy, further supporting the upward trend in precious metal prices [8] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices are under pressure due to signs of oversupply, with some Middle Eastern crude spot prices declining as OPEC+ countries increase production [9] - The International Energy Agency is set to release a market analysis report, which may indicate severe oversupply in the oil market this year, potentially leading to further declines in oil prices [9] - Despite the general oversupply, certain regions are experiencing supply tightness, particularly in the Mediterranean due to issues with the Black Sea and Kazakhstan's giant Tengiz oil field, which may provide some support against downward price pressure [9]

Group 1 - The market has experienced a significant sell-off, with the S&P 500 index dropping over 1.3% and the Nasdaq falling over 1.7% after a long weekend, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1] - The VIX volatility index has surpassed the 20 mark for the first time since November of the previous year, reflecting increased market anxiety [1] - Concerns are primarily centered around President Trump's stance on Greenland, which has raised fears of structural fractures within NATO and potential new trade conflicts [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent sell-off, the average volatility in U.S. debt, equity, and dollar markets remains at its lowest level since at least 1990, suggesting a prior period of calm before the recent turbulence [2] - The rise in Japanese 40-year bond yields above 4% and a 6 basis point increase in U.S. 10-year bond yields to 4.29% have contributed to global market instability [2] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff plans and the potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair has further eroded market confidence, leading to a downgrade in European stock market allocation recommendations by Citigroup [2] Group 3 - Investor sentiment had previously been optimistic, with cash holdings at historical lows and a bullish indicator entering the "extremely bullish" zone, yet nearly half of respondents reported no protection against a significant market downturn [3] - Jefferies strategists anticipate a potential agreement regarding Greenland's sovereignty, but expect market volatility to remain high during the negotiation process [3] - Concerns persist regarding Trump's unpredictable approach to new threats, with historical patterns suggesting he may initially escalate tensions before returning to negotiations, which could continue to impact market confidence [3]

Group 1 - Westpac's commodity research head Robert Rennie indicates that global financial markets are underestimating the seriousness of the situation regarding Greenland, particularly in light of the Trump administration's attempts to exert control over the territory [1] - The market is awaiting Trump's speech at the Davos Forum and the results of an emergency European summit to better understand the severity of the situation [1] Group 2 - Bank of America reports that global investor sentiment has reached its highest level since July 2021, with a significant drop in cash holdings to a historical low of 3.2% [2] - The bank's bull-bear indicator has surged to an "ultra-bull" level of 9.4, with 38% of surveyed fund managers expecting economic strength and concerns about recession at a two-year low [2] - Liquidity conditions are the best since 2021, and nearly half of respondents have no hedging measures against a significant stock market decline [2] Group 3 - BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns that global capitalism is losing public trust as prosperity is not benefiting a wide population, suggesting that success should be measured by people's ability to perceive and feel it [3] - Fink expresses concerns that artificial intelligence could exacerbate inequality, urging Davos to listen more to the voices of ordinary people rather than just the elite [3] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs predicts that emerging market equities will be the most attractive investment destination globally over the next one and five years, with an expected base return rate of 8% [4] - The probability of emerging market returns exceeding expectations is estimated at 20%, while the chance of experiencing low single-digit negative returns is 25% [4] Group 5 - Citigroup's Japan market head, Akira Hoshino, suggests that if the yen continues to weaken, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three times in 2026, potentially doubling the current rate [5] - Hoshino indicates that if the USD/JPY exchange rate exceeds 160, a rate hike could occur as early as April, with further hikes possible in July and by the end of the year [5] Group 6 - Tokyo State Street Asset Management's senior fixed income strategist, Masahiko Loo, states that the "high market trade" strategy remains effective, with shorting the yen being the simplest strategy [6] - Loo notes a significant herd effect in the Japanese market, leading banks to refrain from buying until the Bank of Japan raises rates [6] Group 7 - CICC reports that recent strengthening of the RMB exchange rate is partly due to seasonal increases in settlement demand, particularly in December and January [7] - The report highlights that historically, the RMB has appreciated by 0.5% and 0.8% against the USD in December and January, respectively, with probabilities of appreciation at 75% and 67% [7] Group 8 - Guotai Junan Securities indicates that AI and anti-involution themes may become the main lines of the A-share market in 2026, with AI-driven trends extending from upstream infrastructure to downstream applications [8] - The report notes that AI's contribution to improving PPI is primarily reflected in the prices of non-ferrous metals and technology sectors [8] Group 9 - Galaxy Securities expresses optimism about the dividend value of the banking sector, citing structural monetary policy tools and improving credit demand as supportive factors [9] - The report anticipates that the first batch of listed banks will show stable recovery in performance, with ongoing policy effects expected to be released [9] Group 10 - CITIC Securities sees high certainty in the development of computing power and anticipates significant investment opportunities in domestic computing chips and system-level manufacturers by 2026 [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications in various sectors, suggesting a focus on office, coding, agent, and multi-modal AI applications [10] Group 11 - CITIC Securities notes a cooling of market speculation, with record outflows from the ETF market, while technology and cyclical sector ETFs continue to attract funds [11] - The report suggests that a multi-dimensional comparative allocation strategy is more prudent in the current environment, recommending attention to various ETFs in sectors like new energy and healthcare [11]