Group 1 - The core theme of the investment outlook is the restructuring of the global economic landscape, emphasizing the importance of diversified global asset allocation [1] - The geopolitical changes are significantly impacting investment portfolios, with the U.S. seeking reliable supply chain allies and China shifting its economic focus from investment expansion to boosting domestic consumption [1] - The Federal Reserve is in a challenging position, with expectations that it will not lower interest rates this year due to high inflation and uncertain tariff prospects, contrary to market expectations [1] Group 2 - Diversification has become increasingly important, especially as U.S. assets have dominated global portfolios over the past 25 years, with a notable shift expected due to dollar depreciation and capital outflows [2] - Funds flowing out of U.S. assets may find their way into the Eurozone, supported by increased fiscal policies in Germany, while the Japanese yen is seen as attractive due to its valuation and defensive characteristics [2] - Emerging markets are viewed as appealing, with dollar depreciation benefiting emerging market bonds, particularly in Brazil and Mexico, and low valuations in emerging market equities supported by China's advancements in artificial intelligence [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Financial Products Annual Report titled "Ecological Leap" emphasizes the transformation of the wealth and asset management industry towards a service-oriented model, highlighting the need for industry-wide collaboration and the reconstruction of the wealth ecosystem [2][3]. Group 1: Insights on Wealth Ecosystem - The report reflects on the past year’s efforts and anticipates future explorations, noting that the industry has made significant strides towards service-oriented transformation [2]. - The concept of "Ecological Leap" is introduced as a comprehensive and profound transformation that requires collaboration across the industry [2][3]. - The value of research services is highlighted as essential for understanding trends and guiding industry transformation [2]. Group 2: Financial Products Overview - The report includes a detailed directory covering various financial products and their market outlooks, including insights on deposit replacement products, fixed-income products, and the impact of structured products [3][4]. - It discusses the challenges in client acceptance of net value-based fixed-income products and the implications of market trends on investment strategies [3][4]. - The report also examines the evolution of private equity strategies and the new opportunities arising in the asset management sector [5][6]. Group 3: Future Directions - The report outlines the necessity for a buyer-centric approach in research, emphasizing that true transformation is a result of the collaborative evolution of the ecosystem [3][6]. - It presents a comparative analysis of cross-market financial products and the importance of adopting a scientific approach to fund investment through strategy indices [6]. - The report discusses the role of large models in reshaping wealth management services and the potential for expanding household service capabilities [6].

Core Insights - The S transaction has emerged as a significant exit solution in the context of a narrowing exit channel and declining liquidity in the global private equity market [2] - Despite increased attention and policy support for S funds, the actual market transaction scale remains below expectations, indicating that the RMB S transaction market is still in its early development stage [2][5] - Challenges such as valuation pricing, compliance in transaction processes, and significant differences in expectations between buyers and sellers contribute to the low S transaction rate, failing to meet the urgent liquidity demands of LPs and GPs [2][10] Group 1: Company Background and Expertise - Schroder Capital has been active in the Chinese private equity market since 1998, establishing a robust resource network that covers local project sources and quality GPs [7] - The firm has introduced over 3 billion RMB in foreign capital to the Chinese private equity market through seven QFLP funds, providing international investors with insights and investment channels into China's growth opportunities [5] - With nearly 30 years of experience in the Chinese market, Schroder Capital leverages its mature structured design and valuation methodologies to adapt quickly to market demands and establish pricing advantages [5][8] Group 2: Investment Strategy and Focus - Schroder Capital's investment strategy in China is characterized by a thematic-driven approach, focusing on long-term structural opportunities rather than short-term trends [8] - The firm targets three main themes aligned with China's economic development: consumer growth, services and empowerment for SMEs, and technological innovation and import substitution [8] - The private equity team's long-term partnership strategy has allowed them to accumulate cross-cycle investment experience, making them one of the few platforms capable of dual-currency (USD and RMB) allocations [7][10] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The S fund is seen as an effective means to share in the growth dividends of Chinese enterprises, but it requires higher asset quality and exit diversity [10] - Schroder Capital's ability to quickly integrate into the RMB S market and achieve diverse, market-validated results is attributed to its long-termism and high co-investment ratios, aligning interests with investors [10] - The firm aims to lead the RMB S market towards standardization and institutionalization, thereby boosting confidence in the entire venture capital industry [10]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - Clients believe that China's growth target of around 5% is likely to be achieved due to resilient export demand, although concerns exist about a significant slowdown in exports after the summer [1] - There is a prevailing pessimism regarding the real estate market, with expectations of continued declines in housing prices and a contraction in real estate investment extending into next year [1] - Many clients anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation may remain negative for the year, and there is little hope for additional policy stimulus unless economic data deteriorates rapidly [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Clients express concerns about potential escalation in trade tensions as the July 9 deadline approaches, but most believe that the peak of uncertainty has passed [2] - Despite trade uncertainties, some international clients are increasing investments in Chinese production infrastructure due to cost efficiency and product quality advantages [2] - Investors expect the USD/CNY exchange rate to remain stable, although there are notable downside risks, with many anticipating a further weakening of the dollar in the medium term [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In a low-yield and low-volatility environment, investors are seeking alternative investment opportunities, with some asset management firms increasing their equity allocations for better returns [3] - The upcoming QDII quota issuance allows qualified investors to expand their investments in overseas securities, with attention on potential improvements to the interconnectivity mechanism during the upcoming Bond Connect anniversary summit [3] Group 4: Views on U.S. Interest Rates - There is a divergence in client views regarding U.S. fiscal risks, with some preferring tactical trading in the middle of the yield curve while others are increasing holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 20-year bonds, due to attractive yields [5] - Clients are considering hedging duration risk as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains below 4.3% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Hebei Asset Management Co., Ltd. has officially submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the first local asset management company (AMC) from mainland China to go public in Hong Kong, reflecting a strong desire for capitalization [1][5]. Company Overview - Hebei Asset completed its shareholding reform on June 18, transitioning to a joint-stock company with a total share capital of 2 billion shares, each with a par value of RMB 1 [2]. - The major shareholder, Hebei Construction Investment Group, holds 56.52% of the shares, with other significant shareholders including Hebei Port Group, Hebei Steel Group, and others, all of which are key state-owned enterprises in Hebei [2][3]. Market Position - Hebei Asset is the only local AMC in Hebei with the qualification to acquire and manage non-performing financial assets, holding a significant market position in the region [5]. - According to a report by Zhaosheng Consulting, the company ranks second in the province with a market share of 24.4% for newly acquired non-performing assets in 2024, and first with a market share of 47.2% for non-performing assets acquired from small and medium-sized banks [5]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant decline in performance in 2023, with non-performing asset management income dropping by 48% to RMB 222 million, resulting in a net loss of RMB 145 million [5][6]. - In 2024, Hebei Asset's performance rebounded, with non-performing asset management income increasing by 130% to RMB 512 million and a net profit of RMB 204 million, attributed to improved asset recovery efforts [7]. Industry Context - The capital market for local AMCs is still in an exploratory phase, with only two national AMCs listed in Hong Kong. The listing of Hebei Asset could serve as a reference for future developments in the industry [8][9]. - Local AMCs face increasing regulatory scrutiny, with new guidelines issued that clarify requirements for asset acquisition, disposal, and financing [9]. Despite challenges, the non-performing asset management industry has significant growth potential due to ongoing economic adjustments and the increasing sources of non-performing loans [9].

新华财经北京7月3日电 调查显示，未来一年，净6%的受访央行计划增加欧元持仓，而人民币则以25% 的净比例位居榜首。此外，加拿大元、英镑和日元也受到部分央行的青睐。这种多元化趋势反映了全球 央行对单一储备货币的依赖正在减少，全球金融体系可能正迈向一个更加多元化的新阶段。 欧洲交易时段，美元交投稳定，在美国关键的非农就业报告公布前，投资者持观望态度。摩根资产管理 表示，这可能会让经济增长担忧"重新成为焦点"，并加大美联储加快降息时间表的压力。不过，他表 示，相较于就业数据而言，通货膨胀离目标水平更远，因此美联储在降息方面应会保持谨慎立场。 市场调查显示，预计美国6月非农就业岗位仅增加11万个，失业率将攀升至4.3%，创下三年半以来的最 高水平。与此同时，薪资增长保持稳定，但经济学家们对未来的就业趋势表达了担忧。市场已开始为潜 在的政策转向做好准备。由于7月4日美国独立日假期，劳工部将提前在周四发布备受瞩目的6月就业报 告。 景顺固定收益分析师强调了当前美国就业市场中出现的裂痕。尽管整体经济环境看似稳定，但近期美国 劳动力市场的数据已显示出多个警示信号，表明美联储应当采取"主动出击"的策略，即提前采取行动以 应对 ...

Group 1 - COMEX silver prices have increased significantly, currently trading at $37.20 per ounce, with a rise of 1.10% from the opening price of $36.79 per ounce [1][5] - The highest price reached today was $37.24 per ounce, while the lowest was $36.57 per ounce [1][5] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised, with two-thirds of reserve managers expressing worries about political interference affecting monetary policy [3] - Since President Trump took office, his public criticism and pressure on the Federal Reserve have led to a reassessment of the dollar's reliability as a safe-haven asset [3] - Approximately 35% of central banks surveyed believe the U.S. may require allies to convert medium- to long-term debt into ultra-long-term zero-coupon bonds, reflecting concerns over U.S. debt management strategies [4] - Despite these concerns, nearly 80% of respondents expect the dollar to maintain its status as the global reserve currency, with the dollar currently accounting for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves [4] - However, 29% of central banks plan to reduce investments in U.S. assets in the future, indicating a gradual decline in the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [4]

Group 1 - The announcement of a trade agreement between Trump and Vietnam has boosted risk appetite, but signs of negative impacts from the trade war are emerging in the small non-farm payroll data [1] - The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic ahead of the upcoming non-farm payroll report and the vote on the Big Beautiful Bill, with increasing indications of a slowdown in the US economy [1] - Asian stock markets saw slight gains, European stocks rose moderately after US stocks hit new highs, and US stock futures also increased slightly [1] Group 2 - US Treasury yields mostly declined, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield falling by over 3 basis points [2] - The dollar index and euro remained stable, while the British pound rose by 0.2% and the New Taiwan dollar increased by over 0.5% [2] - Gold prices recovered from an earlier 0.4% decline, while silver rose by over 0.6% [2] Group 3 - Concerns about the future outlook of the UK’s fiscal situation were raised following comments from Chancellor Reeves, but Prime Minister Keir Starmer reassured that Reeves will continue in her role [5]

Core Viewpoint - Fidelity International reports that Asian central banks have room to ease monetary policy to mitigate economic impacts from trade tensions [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Asia's reliance on trade makes the region vulnerable to tariff tensions, prompting central banks to consider easing monetary policies [1] - The potential for interest rate cuts and currency appreciation may boost demand for local currency bonds in the region [1] Group 2: Currency Demand - As investors seek currencies outside the US dollar, demand for Asian currencies is likely to rebound [1] - Several regions in Asia stand to benefit from this shift in currency demand [1]

当前全球格局面临深度调整，处于新一 轮科技革命和产业变革加速演进的关键时期，科技创新活动 愈发密 集活跃。 在此环境下， 中小市值企业不仅是经济韧性的重要支撑，也是国家科技创新活力 的具体承载。 由于相比大型企业更具灵活性，中小市值企业在 向专业化、精细化、特色化持续发展 的过程中，有望逐渐在产业链中构筑起不可替代的竞争力。 中小市值上市公司作为经济韧性的重要支撑，其健康发展既是完善产业结构和释放创新活力的关键一 环，也是提高多层次资本市场服务覆盖面和精准度的重要实践。在初评会上，主办方代表第一财经总 经理汪钧、安永大中华区业务主管合伙人毕舜杰、矽亚资产管理首席执行官陈加凤，先后发言致辞， 并表示对中小市值企业的发展予以高度关注。 汪钧表示，无论是推动经济发展潜力军的价值发现，还是推动深化改革中的资本市场的资源配置引 导，研究中国中小市值上市公司成长性意义深远。 "我们看到，当前内外部环境仍存在不确定性，技 术迭代对企业的影响也仍在持续，中小企业仍然需要各方携手护航，这是我们和'未来20'共同的使 命。 以持续跟踪和系统研究资本市场中小市值企业的成长发展潜力为目标， 2 024 年第一财经携手安永 （中国）、 ...