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摩根资管警告:美股呈现出“泡沫化”倾向,与实体经济存在明显脱节
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-02-10 14:43
报告指出,2026年第一季的开局相当动荡,消费者活动显著缩减。1月美国轻型汽车销量跌至年化1490 万辆,创下3年多来新低;旅游业也陷入停滞,旅店入住率年率下降1%。全美住宅建筑商协会的数据显 示,潜在购房者流量指数已降至23(指数高于50代表看好),而租赁空置率则攀升至7.2%,为2017年以来 最高。 劳动力市场显现疲态,策略师将目前的动态描述为"低招聘、低解雇、低增长"。职位空缺数已从去年11 月的690万个跌至12月的650万个,为5年来低点。更深层的危机在于人口结构,美国工作年龄人口目前 每月减少约2万人,加上移民增速放缓,导致创造就业的引擎几近熄火。 格隆汇2月10日|道指突破50000点大关之际,摩根资产管理首席全球策略师David Kelly发出严厉警告 称,当前股市的繁荣主要受到流动性与大型科技股业绩的支撑,呈现出"泡沫化"倾向,与实体经济存在 明显脱节。他将当前经济形容为"消费疲软、就业增长乏力、民意低迷"的综合体。 经济不平等的加剧也让民意持续低迷。随着11月中期选举临近,执政党面临巨大的席位流失风险。若民 主党重夺众议院控制权,华盛顿将陷入政策僵局,这将终结进一步财政刺激的可能性,包括 ...
威灵顿投资管理:全球投资者对中国股票的投资兴趣持续增长
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2026-02-10 12:09
郁嘉言表示,近年来,全球投资者对中国股票的投资兴趣持续增长,投资主体也从以往的传统新兴市场 基金,扩展至全球纯多头基金和对冲基金。这一变化的背后主要有三大驱动因素:首先,市场对中国企 业不断提升的竞争力和创新潜力给予更多认可,同时中国股票整体估值具有相对优势;其次,外部环境 趋于缓和,市场风险溢价相应下降;第三,中国国内政策与资本市场发展、企业盈利水平以及经济结构 转型之间的协同性持续增强,增强了投资环境的吸引力。 本报讯(记者毛艺融)威灵顿投资管理宏观策略师郁嘉言日前发布对中国股票市场的最新观点。 "当前全球主要发达市场的估值普遍处于历史高位,后续上行空间相对有限。"郁嘉言提到,在此背景 下,中国市场的强劲表现日益受到重视。忽略中国配置的投资组合或将面临显著的业绩落后风险,还将 错失这一重要的分散化投资标的。中国股市受全球多数宏观因素的影响相对较小,能够为全球核心持仓 提供有效的对冲支撑。 同时,中国企业正在不断扩大海外布局,在全球市场扩展业务,甚至在汽车制造、工业机械、新能源装 备等领域挑战海外行业领先企业。对全球投资者而言,忽略中国市场的发展动向,很可能错失重塑其持 仓企业所属行业格局的颠覆性趋势,付出 ...
欧洲最大资产管理机构卖出美元资产
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-10 09:01
东方汇理成为最新一家明确表示将削减或对冲其美国资产风险敞口的大型投资机构。瑞典最大私人养老 基金阿莱克塔养老基金1月说,鉴于美国政府的"不可预测性以及不断增长的美国债务",该基金在过去 一年内已出售其所持大部分美国国债。 鲍德松说,过去一年,国际投资者最初通过购买黄金对冲美元贬值风险,这在很大程度上解释了同期金 价大幅上涨的原因。该公司随后发现,人们希望分散投资,以实现资产多元化,因为美元资产存在过度 投资的问题。 《金融时报》报道,上述资金动向已推动资本流向欧洲和新兴市场资产,包括债券和股票。去年,新兴 市场股市迎来自2017年以来表现最好的一年。 来源:新华社 欧洲最大资产管理机构东方汇理说,该公司将继续减少美元资产风险敞口,转向欧洲和新兴市场。 英国《金融时报》9日援引东方汇理首席执行官瓦莱丽·鲍德松的话说,未来一年,东方汇理将建议客户 减持美元资产。她警告说,如果美国经济政策不改变,"我们将继续看到美元走弱"。 鲍德松说:"在过去12个月至15个月,东方汇理一直大力推动投资多元化,并建议客户分散投资……今 后一年,我们仍将继续建议客户实现投资组合多样化。" ...
【微特稿】欧洲最大资产管理机构卖出美元资产
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-10 08:50
【新华社微特稿】欧洲最大资产管理机构东方汇理说,该公司将继续减少美元资产风险敞口,转向欧洲 和新兴市场。 东方汇理成为最新一家明确表示将削减或对冲其美国资产风险敞口的大型投资机构。瑞典最大私人养老 基金阿莱克塔养老基金1月说,鉴于美国政府的"不可预测性以及不断增长的美国债务",该基金在过去 一年内已出售其所持大部分美国国债。 鲍德松说,过去一年,国际投资者最初通过购买黄金对冲美元贬值风险,这在很大程度上解释了同期金 价大幅上涨的原因。该公司随后发现,人们希望分散投资,以实现资产多元化,因为美元资产存在过度 投资的问题。 《金融时报》报道,上述资金动向已推动资本流向欧洲和新兴市场资产,包括债券和股票。去年,新兴 市场股市迎来自2017年以来表现最好的一年。(完)(卜晓明) 英国《金融时报》9日援引东方汇理首席执行官瓦莱丽·鲍德松的话说,未来一年,东方汇理将建议客户 减持美元资产。她警告说,如果美国经济政策不改变,"我们将继续看到美元走弱"。 鲍德松说:"在过去12个月至15个月,东方汇理一直大力推动投资多元化,并建议客户分散投资……今 后一年,我们仍将继续建议客户实现投资组合多样化。" ...
中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院:2025年全球资产管理中心评价指数报告
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-10 08:46
今天分享的是:中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院:2025年全球资产管理中心评价指数报告 报告共计:76页 《2025全球资产管理中心评价指数报告》由中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院发布,本次首次将"资管科技"纳入二级评价指标,从多维度解析 了全球资管行业的格局变化与发展趋势。2025年全球经济调整、地缘政治摩擦等背景下,全球资管中心竞争呈现"一超多强"特征,纽约 凭借资金、底层资产与资管科技的一体化优势稳居首位,巴黎依托ESG与另类资产优势跃居第二,伦敦则因人才和税收政策竞争力减弱 退居第三,北美波士顿、多伦多实现弯道超车,亚洲市场分化显著,上海升至第五且在资管科技等领域表现亮眼,孟买成为新兴市场黑 马,香港、新加坡排名有所回落。 在细分领域,资金来源持续向美国城市集中,亚洲在税收激励与人才供给上展现追赶势头,底层资产市场多数中心与纽约差距缩小,孟 买表现突出,而资管规模与开放式基金业务受资金"美股化"影响向美国进一步集聚,ESG与另类资产业务则呈现欧美各有优势、亚洲短 期波动的特点。本次报告的指标体系创新成为重要亮点,通过基础层、市场层、创新层与应用层构建资管科技全链条评价框架,纽约、 伦敦、上海等各资管中心依托自身禀赋在 ...
华尔街“减持美国”:1月逾500亿美元涌入国际ETF,转向中日欧
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-02-10 07:44
海外市场催化剂涌现 经过多年重仓美国大型科技股后,华尔街投资者正在加速将资金转向国际市场,这一转变源于美国股市 估值高企、美元走弱以及海外市场出现的新机遇,投资者押注美国市场的领先优势将收窄。 资金流向数据显示这一趋势正在提速。据华尔街日报周一报道,Morningstar Direct数据显示,1月份投 资者向国际股票ETF净流入516亿美元,月度流入规模自2024年底以来大幅跃升。 多个全球指数今年以来已超越美国主要基准指数,包括欧洲斯托克600指数、韩国综合指数和MSCI新兴 市场指数。去年,MSCI全球除美国指数以美元计价飙升29%,创下十多年来最佳表现,远超标普500指 数16%的涨幅。 这一轮资金外流与去年春季的"减持美国"交易有所不同。多数资产管理人士仍相信美国将引领全球股市 上涨,只是领先幅度可能不及近年来那么大。 估值与美元驱动资金外流 高估值和美元贬值成为推动资金流向海外的核心因素。美元自2022年高点已下跌约10%,通过提升外国 公司相对美国公司的盈利价值,增强了海外股票的回报率。 Truist Advisory Services首席投资官Keith Lerner表示:"现在我们处于全球牛 ...
中国信达资产管理股份有限公司党委书记、董事长张卫东发表新春畅想
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-10 07:34
Core Viewpoint - The company expresses gratitude and optimism for the new year, reflecting on its achievements and commitment to supporting the national strategy and economic stability [4][10]. Group 1: Achievements in 2025 - The company highlights its role as a participant and witness in the successful completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" under the leadership of the central government, contributing to China's modernization [5][11]. - The company emphasizes its commitment to implementing the central government's decisions and integrating party leadership into corporate governance [5][11]. - The company has intensified efforts in risk management, focusing on non-performing financial assets and addressing risks in key areas such as real estate and local government debt [5][11]. Group 2: Social Responsibility and Community Support - The company has actively engaged in social responsibility initiatives, including a donation of 5.58 million Hong Kong dollars to support fire relief efforts in Hong Kong [5][11]. - The company has dispatched personnel to assist in rural areas such as Qinghai and Xinjiang, demonstrating its commitment to community support [5][11]. Group 3: Future Development and Strategic Goals - The company is set to embark on a new journey of high-quality development by joining the China Investment Corporation system, focusing on customer-centric approaches and ecosystem development [6][12]. - The company aims to foster a high-quality, sustainable development path while adhering to the principles of performance and risk management [6][12]. - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," and the company is committed to contributing to national rejuvenation and development under the guidance of the central government [6][12].
中国长城资产管理股份有限公司发表新春畅想
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-10 07:34
Core Viewpoint - China Great Wall Asset Management Co., Ltd. expresses gratitude for support during its reform and development, emphasizing its commitment to serving national strategies and contributing to financial stability and economic modernization [2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Contributions - In the past year, the company has revitalized over 80 billion yuan in various assets, aiding distressed enterprises in shedding burdens and rejuvenating their operations [2][3]. - The company acquired nearly 80 billion yuan in non-performing financial assets, contributing to financial stability and high-quality economic development [2][3]. - The company has actively supported the real estate sector by creating replicable and promotable relief models, significantly aiding local economic and social development [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Goals for the New Year - In the new year, the company aims to align with the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals, enhancing its role within the national financial system and focusing on serving the broader economic landscape [3][4]. - The company emphasizes the importance of supporting the real economy, particularly in areas like modern industrial system construction and domestic circulation [8]. - The company plans to strengthen its risk management framework, focusing on non-performing assets and participating in the reform of small and medium financial institutions to mitigate regional financial risks [8]. Group 3: Commitment to Reform and Innovation - The company is committed to deepening institutional reforms and enhancing its governance structure to better serve national development goals [8]. - There is a focus on leveraging technology to improve service capabilities and overall risk management [8].
数字资产牌照提速,君威资本以RWA代币化赋能港美上市
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-10 02:48
2025年7月,香港财库局宣布提速数字资产交易平台牌照审批,截至月初已发牌11家、处理9家申请,金管局Ensemble项目同步推动基金、电动车充电站收 益流等RWA代币化落地;纳斯达克也在积极完善数字资产披露规则,探索RWA与上市企业服务的深度结合,为中资企业带来新机遇。君威资本依托香港 全牌照及跨境服务优势,重点布局RWA代币化赛道,精准衔接港美上市核心需求。 一、政策红利:港美共建数字资产生态,适配上市新需求 香港证监会的"迅速发牌程序"已扩展至所有新申请者,核心特征包括风险为本的现场视察(证监会直接与申请方高层沟通,缩短审批时间)、监管沙盒升 级(允许测试代币化、生成式AI等创新用例),为RWA代币化提供合规土壤。纳斯达克则通过完善数字资产相关披露规则,认可合规RWA代币化对企业 资产流动性的提升作用,为持有RWA资产的企业上市提供估值支撑。此举与君威资本的9号(资产管理)牌照业务形成协同——可将私募股权基金份额、 知识产权等资产代币化,既提升企业资产活力,又契合港交所、纳斯达克对科创企业核心资产的估值逻辑,吸引境外投资者关注。 二、君威资本RWA实践:从非标资产到链上流通,衔接港美上市标准 三、合规风 ...
中国金融改革开放2025年度报告
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-10 02:45
Core Insights - The report highlights that 2025 marks a critical year for China's financial reform and opening-up, transitioning from market access to institutional openness, focusing on rules and regulations, and aiming for high-quality development in the financial sector [9][10]. Market Development - The capital market's two-way opening continues to deepen, with significant improvements in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Bond Connect, leading to increased trading activity and market stability [10][18]. - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is accelerating, with a global cross-border payment system and rapid development of the digital RMB, creating a dual-driven new pattern [10][33]. - The bond market has seen substantial growth, with the "Bond Connect" mechanism enhancing cross-border investment and risk management capabilities, making Chinese bonds a core option for global asset allocation [23][27]. Industry Development - Foreign financial institutions are accelerating their entry into the Chinese market, focusing on wealth management, green finance, and technology insurance, while domestic institutions are expanding internationally, particularly in Belt and Road Initiative countries [10][52]. - The insurance sector is witnessing increased foreign participation, with foreign insurance companies' total assets reaching 3.32 trillion RMB, a 12.1% increase from the previous year [57]. Institutional Introduction - The introduction of foreign institutions is shifting from mere expansion to focusing on high-net-worth wealth management and cross-border finance, indicating a more strategic approach [72]. - As of mid-2025, there are 42 foreign banks operating in China, with a strong emphasis on capital strength and international experience, contributing significantly to the local banking landscape [47][50]. Business Development - The Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) and Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) systems are continuously optimized, expanding investment channels and quotas, which enhances cross-border financial integration [11][52]. - The establishment of cross-border financial services in strategic regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is progressing, creating a multi-layered regional opening pattern [11][12]. Regulatory Reform - Financial regulatory reforms are being implemented, including the optimization of the qualified foreign investor system and the introduction of new policies to enhance the financial regulatory framework [11][12]. - The integration of finance and technology is deepening, forming a comprehensive financial support system for technological innovation throughout its lifecycle [11][12]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the focus will be on deepening institutional openness, aligning rules and standards with international practices, and promoting a more competitive and resilient modern financial system [12].