Workflow
二手房交易
icon
Search documents
二手结构|京沪深杭刚改中改需求“塌陷”,刚需集中度上升
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-17 09:28
Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is expected to continue a trend of stabilization with a slight decline in the short term, as evidenced by a 10% month-on-month decrease in transactions in May 2025 compared to the new housing market which saw an increase [1][22]. Group 1: Market Trends - The transaction volume of second-hand homes has been steadily declining, with a notable 10% decrease in May 2025 across 30 key cities [1]. - The proportion of transactions in the price range of 3-6 million yuan has significantly adjusted downwards, indicating a trend of consumption downgrade among first-time and upgrading buyers [2][3]. - The low-price segment continues to see an upward trend in transaction concentration, with 34.4% of transactions in Shenzhen being for properties priced under 3 million yuan, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase month-on-month [3]. Group 2: Transaction Characteristics - In terms of area, the 90-120 square meter segment has seen an increase in transaction share, primarily due to its suitability for family needs, while smaller units (80 square meters and below) have experienced a decline in market share [5]. - The transaction concentration in mid-value areas is increasing, with notable growth in districts like Fengtai and Changping in Beijing, and Longgang and Longhua in Shenzhen [8][10]. Group 3: Price Adjustments - The proportion of second-hand homes with price reductions has increased in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, while Shanghai remains stable at a high level of 56% [12][16]. - The price reduction strategy has been particularly effective for budget-friendly properties, with over half of the transactions in affordable segments in Beijing and Shanghai reflecting price cuts [16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to face a seasonal decline, influenced by a slowdown in demand following the peak of school district purchases and a lack of new listings, especially in the luxury segment [21][22]. - The market is transitioning to a buyer's market, where buyers are increasingly considering location, amenities, and price, leading to longer transaction cycles for less desirable properties [22].
行业透视|京沪深杭二手挂牌量降幅收窄,刚需抛压扩大,中改需求收缩
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-13 08:46
Core Viewpoint - The short-term outlook for the second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is expected to remain stable with a downward trend [21] Group 1: Market Trends - In May 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 30 key cities decreased by 10% month-on-month, while year-on-year growth was marginal at 4%, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum [3] - The new listing volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou showed a high-level retreat in the second quarter of 2025, with May's month-on-month decline narrowing compared to April [3][4] - The proportion of listings priced between 1 million to 5 million yuan remains around 60%, with a notable increase in the 1 million to 3 million yuan segment in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou [5][8] Group 2: Listing Dynamics - The listing enthusiasm among high-end property owners in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has shown a steady decline, particularly in the 10 million to 30 million yuan price range, while Hangzhou has seen an increase in high-end listings [10][11] - The middle-tier market in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has experienced a significant drop in listing demand, with the proportion of listings priced between 6 million to 8 million yuan reaching a low for 2025 [15][17] - The overall market is characterized by a "growing pressure from first-time buyers, shrinking demand from mid-tier buyers, and a differentiated high-end market" [21]
自如绘制“好房子”全周期生态图景
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-06-12 13:51
Group 1 - The concept of "good housing" has been officially recognized in government work reports, indicating a shift in housing construction from "having a place to live" to "having quality housing" in China [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's new regulations and various local housing development plans for 2025 are driving the improvement of "good housing" across the country [1][2] - Leading institutional housing rental companies like Ziroom are focusing on the "good housing" concept, expanding their services to include buying, renting, smart home decoration, and lifestyle services [1][2] Group 2 - The rental population in China has reached nearly 260 million, with almost 50% of the population in first-tier cities relying on rental housing [2] - Ziroom has introduced the "Stable and Four Good" model to meet the diverse needs of tenants and landlords, enhancing property value through renovations and professional asset management [2][3] - The "Gain Rent" model allows landlords to improve the quality of their properties, leading to increased rental income and tenant satisfaction [2][3] Group 3 - Ziroom's "Heart House 3.0" product line addresses specific tenant needs, such as pet-friendly spaces and family-oriented living environments [3] - The company offers a variety of high-quality rental products, including scattered whole rentals, shared housing, luxury apartments, and rental communities, catering to different tenant demographics [3] - The "Stable" aspect of the model provides a transparent and stable cooperation mechanism for both landlords and tenants, while the "Four Good" focuses on product quality, service quality, technological efficiency, and team support [3] Group 4 - In the second-hand housing market, there is a growing demand for higher quality "good housing," with outdated properties becoming less attractive to buyers [4] - Ziroom has extended its experience in rental housing to the second-hand market with its Ziroom Home service, offering renovated and smart homes to enhance the selling experience [4][5] - The company aims to address traditional market pain points such as outdated listings, long transaction cycles, and high commissions through its new business model [4] Group 5 - The implementation of national standards for "good housing" emphasizes safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence in residential projects [6] - Ziroom's smart home brand, Ziroom Smart Home, integrates technology into housing, providing features like voice control and remote management of home appliances [6] - The company's approach to creating "smart homes" aligns with the broader goal of enhancing the quality of living environments through technological innovation [6][7] Group 6 - Ziroom's comprehensive service ecosystem encompasses rental housing, family services, smart home solutions, artistic decoration, and second-hand property transactions [7] - The company's efforts in promoting "good housing" reflect a response to government policies aimed at improving living standards and transforming the real estate market [7][8] - By focusing on quality housing, Ziroom aims to enhance user satisfaction and contribute to urban vitality, shaping a better future for living environments [8]
广州新规下,二手房有救了?!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 18:31
Core Viewpoint - The tightening of high usage rates in Guangzhou is expected to impact both new and second-hand housing markets, with mixed implications for developers and homeowners [2][4]. Summary by Sections New Regulations and Developer Impact - New regulations will still allow certain housing types but will eliminate methods that exploit "extra area" such as bay windows and flower beds [2]. - Developers with existing high usage rate inventory may benefit, while those who recently acquired land without exploiting these methods may face challenges [2][4]. Current State of Second-Hand Housing - The current state of second-hand housing in Guangzhou is described as "quite miserable, but not as bad as before," with over 146,000 listings on platforms like Beike, marking a historical peak [2][12]. - Transaction volumes have shown some improvement compared to last year, with April and March seeing over 10,000 transactions, although May saw a decline to 9,228 [2][12]. Impact of High Usage Rate on Second-Hand Housing - The previous high usage rates widened the gap between new and second-hand housing in terms of product quality and price-performance ratio [5][12]. - For example, a new 91㎡ unit can offer superior features compared to a 95㎡ second-hand unit, making it difficult for second-hand homeowners to compete [6][8]. Buyer Preferences and Market Dynamics - Many new home buyers are looking to upgrade from second-hand homes, which complicates the market dynamics as they struggle to sell their existing properties [9][10]. - The current buyer demographic favors smaller units, with 90㎡ and below accounting for half of the second-hand transactions in May [12][14]. Future Outlook for Second-Hand Housing - The tightening of usage rates may stop the widening gap between new and second-hand homes, but it does not eliminate the existing disparity [12][13]. - To revitalize the second-hand market, two strategies are suggested: waiting for new supply to diminish in prime areas to highlight second-hand scarcity, and maintaining competitive pricing against new homes [15][17].
高盛最新研判:新房下行不可逆转,存量房流通效率成关键
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-25 22:33
Core Insights - The report by Goldman Sachs highlights the transition of China's real estate market from new development to existing property management, driven by policy and housing upgrade demands, predicting a total addressable market (TAM) of 5.7 trillion RMB by 2035, a 70% increase from 2024 [1] Group 1: Key Conclusions for the Real Estate Industry by 2035 - Housing demand is expected to reach 60% of the peak level in 2017, with necessity, improvement, and renewal demands contributing equally. The share of demand from first and second-tier cities will rise from 60% in 2024 to approximately 70% [4] - Government and developers will adjust land supply based on demand, leading to further consolidation in the developer industry. The top ten developers are projected to capture about 50% of the national market share by sales by 2035, with new housing market size significantly shrinking, averaging 40% lower than 2024 levels [5] - The second-hand housing market will account for 66% of total sales volume and 64% of total value due to reduced new housing supply, aligning with levels seen in developed markets [6] - Renovation will emerge as a key driver, with an expected renovation rate of about 1% by 2035, leading to a total building area of over 110 billion square meters, with renovated areas nearly doubling to represent about 60% of total building area [7] Group 2: Four Core Trends Reshaping the Industry Landscape - A structural shift in housing demand is anticipated, with total demand expected to fall to 60% of the 2017 peak, but with a significant change in demand structure, where improvement and old housing renewal demands will rise, contributing to 70% of the demand from first-tier and new first-tier cities [8] - Both land supply and developer concentration are expected to increase, with government land supply favoring high-demand areas and leading developers accelerating expansion into T-1/2 cities. The market share of the top ten developers is projected to rise from 21% in 2024 to 50% by 2035 [10] - The rise of the second-hand housing market will counterbalance the decline in new housing, with second-hand transactions expected to account for 66% of total transactions and 64% of total transaction value by 2035, aligning with developed market standards [11] - Renovation will become a core driver, with an annual renovation rate increasing to 1%, leading to a demand for the renovation of over 20 billion square meters by 2035, driven by policies promoting upgrades and quality of living [12] Group 3: Opportunities and Challenges in the Industry Chain - Demand for construction products will diversify, with strong cyclical categories like glass and ceramics facing short-term pressure, while demand for energy-saving materials and aging-friendly renovations will partially offset declines, with market size expected to decrease by 10%-15% by 2035 [14] - The renovation market is projected to experience explosive growth, driven by existing property renovations and second-hand transactions, with the home decoration industry expected to exceed 3 trillion RMB, accounting for 32% of the total industry chain [14] - The expansion of property management and brokerage services is anticipated, with active second-hand transactions and asset preservation needs leading to an expected revenue scale of 2.7 trillion RMB in property management and brokerage, representing 30% of the industry chain [14]
美国二手房销售下滑创2009年以来最差4月表现
news flash· 2025-05-22 14:44
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly declined in April, marking the lowest level in seven months, highlighting a weak start to the crucial spring selling season [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Sales Performance - Existing home sales fell by 0.5% month-over-month on an annualized basis, reaching 4 million units, which is the weakest April performance since 2009 [1] Economic Indicators - The decline in sales is attributed to ongoing affordability constraints, indicating that suppressed home-buying demand continues to grow but has not yet been fully released [1] Expert Commentary - Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, stated that any significant decrease in mortgage rates would help to unleash the pent-up demand for housing [1]
4月重点城市二手房成交同比增长,深圳大增37%
证券时报· 2025-05-06 12:34
4月,重点城市二手房成交量同比普遍增长。 具体来看,一线城市中,深圳二手住宅成交套数同比大增37%,上海同比增长30%,北京同比增长17%,广州同比增长近13%。 二线城市中,成都、杭州、南 宁二手住宅成交套数同比分别增长20%、16%、14%。 业内人士认为,4月重点城市二手房交易活跃度持续,驱动行业对后市信心有所回升,5月房地产市场有望延续积极向好。 重点城市二手房成交同比增长 4月,重点城市二手房成交量整体同比延续增长态势。 不过,中指研究院高级分析师孟新增指出,4月重点城市二手房市场仍保持较高活跃度,成交同比多保持增长,但目前二手房挂牌量仍在高位,部分城市取消 限售后二手房挂牌量有所增加,市场整体仍延续"以价换量"行情,根据中指研究院百城价格指数,4月百城二手住宅价格环比下跌0.69%,跌幅较上月扩大0.1 个百分点。 "红五月"可期? 因4月楼市活跃度持续,业内认为5月二手住宅市场交易将升温。 广州市房地产中介协会指出,4月市场受清明假期以及雨水天气频繁等因素影响,但全市二手住宅网签量仍保持万宗以上水平,驱动行业对后市信心有所回 升,5月经理人指数因此环比增长9.79个百分点至52.17%(前值42 ...
4月北京二手房网签1.56万套 价格博弈加剧
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 03:06
Core Viewpoint - The Beijing second-hand housing market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown in activity, with an increase in listings and a shift in pricing dynamics as sellers adjust their expectations and buyers maintain a strong negotiating position [3][4][8]. Group 1: Market Activity - In April, the number of signed contracts for second-hand homes in Beijing was 15,569, representing a month-on-month decrease of 19.05% but a year-on-year increase of 16.59% [3]. - The overall market activity has declined compared to March, with a decrease in consultation, viewing, and transaction volumes, indicating a return to normalcy after the post-Spring Festival surge [3][4]. - The number of listings for second-hand homes in April increased by 3.7% compared to March, indicating ongoing pressure for market absorption [5]. Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - The average listing price for second-hand homes in Beijing in April was 87,100 yuan per square meter, down 0.7% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year [8]. - The bargaining space for buyers has narrowed by 0.27 percentage points compared to March, yet buyers still hold a significant advantage in negotiations [8]. - Sellers are increasingly adjusting their prices, with some urgent sellers willing to reduce prices by 5-8% to facilitate quicker sales [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue facing downward pressure on prices as the "small spring" effect diminishes, with predictions of a slight decrease in transaction volumes and prices if no new policies are introduced [10]. - The upcoming May market is anticipated to maintain a steady volume but may see slight price declines due to increased listings and ongoing buyer caution [10].
美国3月二手房折合年率销量下降5.9%至402万套
news flash· 2025-04-24 14:09
4月24日,美国全国地产经纪商协会表示,3月份二手房折合年率销量402万套,预估为413万套,2月份 销售数据从426万套修正至427万套。 ...
经济复苏的成色(国金宏观孙永乐)
雪涛宏观笔记· 2025-03-23 23:23
经济复苏的成色和分歧 1-2月二手房成交量继续维持高位, 9大样本城市二手房成交面积同比增长25.9%,显著高于-6.9% 的新房成交面积增速。但是二手房成交的复苏并不全面,其中深圳、杭州的二手房成交同比增长 65.6%、46.8%,苏州、青岛、佛山的二手房成交同比增长2.5%、-0.8%、-3.5%,内部分化较 大。 文:国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 年初经济平稳开局。 基于工业增加值和服务业生产指数同比增速,预计1-2月GDP不变价增速在5.2% 左右。而3月前三周的高频数据也显示月度GDP同比有望上行至5.4%左右, 对应1季度GDP同比增速 在5.3%左右 。其中,社零同比增长4%,略超市场预期,也处于2023年以来的区间上沿。 但是金融数据和通胀数据的表现一般。 受有效需求偏弱等因素拖累,1-2月CPI、PPI累计同比分别 为-0.1%、-2.2%;3月价格环比依旧偏弱,基于高频数据预测,3月PPI、CPI同比为-2%、0.6%, 对应一季度GDP平减指数为-0.7%,连续8个季度为负。 依靠政府债发行放量(1-2月政府债累计新增2.4万亿,同比多增1.5万亿),社融同比增速从去年末的 8%上行至2 ...