证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-25 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 金融产品周报 20260207：海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪或会好转【勘 误版】 市场行情展望：（2026.2.2-2026.2.6） 观点：市场短期进入结构混沌期， 但大盘指数仍然稳健。 2 月整体走势判断：2026 年 2 月，宏观择时模 型的月度评分是 0 分，历史上该分数万得全 A 指数后续一个月上涨概率 为 78.57%，平均涨幅为 3.37%。叠加日历效应中财报预告的结束，我们 对 2 月 A 股大盘走势持乐观的观点。但鉴于 1 月权益已累计不少盈利盘， 春节前可能有一定的止盈压力。 本周 A 股中，宽基 ETF 仍在持续流出, 但能观察到 1 月 30 日多数宽基 ETF 呈现明显成交额缩小的特征，说明 后续来自宽基 ETF 的抛压可能会逐步减小。同时通信、芯片、化工、石 油石化、港股非银等方向呈现资金流入的特征，可以关注后续资金的持续 性。 结构上，市场短期呈现混沌期特点。上周提示过的周期性行业表现 相对不错，石油、化工等方向仍旧较为稳健。但有 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference focused on the ITC (Information Technology and Communications) sector and the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, analyzing macro and micro factors affecting these industries [1][4]. Key Points on ITC Sector - Recent collaborations between major tech companies like Meta and NVIDIA were highlighted, indicating a strong push towards local deployment and AI infrastructure [1]. - Capital expenditure forecasts for major companies show significant growth: - Meta's capital expenditure is expected to grow by over 70% year-on-year [1]. - Google's forecast indicates over 90% growth, while Amazon anticipates over 50% growth [2]. - The demand for cloud services and related infrastructure investments remains robust, with expectations of continued acceleration in capital expenditures for power generation and electrical equipment [2]. Data Center Developments - The expansion of data centers has raised concerns among local communities regarding increased utility costs and disturbances caused by cooling systems [3]. - Companies like Meta are taking steps to manage electricity costs associated with data centers, indicating a shift towards self-sustaining energy solutions [3]. - Investment scales in data centers are expected to grow, with initial projects expanding from smaller capacities to larger ones, reflecting a significant increase in infrastructure and electricity demand [4]. Domestic Market Insights - Chinese companies such as ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu are actively promoting AI applications, particularly around the Lunar New Year, which has contributed to increased engagement in AI technologies [5]. - The domestic market is seeing a rise in IDC (Internet Data Center) tenders and related procurement activities, indicating a clear growth trajectory in application and computational infrastructure [5]. Micro-Level Company Insights - Companies in the power generation equipment sector, such as Caterpillar, GEV, Mitsubishi, and Siemens, reported strong financial results, particularly in order volumes, which are exceeding expectations [6]. - The demand for AI-related infrastructure is experiencing explosive growth, with companies like FIX (a mechanical, electrical, and plumbing service provider) reporting significant order volumes driven by data center and semiconductor needs [7]. Investment Opportunities - The investment landscape in the overseas power generation and infrastructure sectors remains strong, with a focus on gas turbines and natural gas power generation as key areas of growth [9][10]. - Domestic manufacturers are increasingly looking to expand internationally, with companies like Weichai Power and others actively pursuing overseas certifications and shipments [8][12]. PCB Equipment Sector Insights - The PCB equipment sector is currently in a catalytic phase, with expectations for a new round of production expansion starting around March [15][16]. - The demand for PCB equipment is confirmed, with leading manufacturers operating at full capacity and engaging in mergers and acquisitions to enhance production capabilities [17][18]. - Price increases in the PCB sector are noted, particularly in the drilling and electronic fabric segments, driven by sustained demand and supply constraints [18][19]. Future Outlook - The upcoming NVIDIA GTC conference is anticipated to provide insights into next-generation products, which could influence market dynamics and investment strategies in the PCB equipment sector [23][24]. - The overall outlook for the PCB equipment sector remains positive, with strong performance expected in 2027 and beyond, contingent on technological advancements and market demand [24]. Conclusion - The conference highlighted significant growth opportunities in both the ITC and PCB sectors, driven by technological advancements, increased capital expenditures, and a robust demand for infrastructure. The focus on international expansion and strategic partnerships among leading companies is expected to shape the future landscape of these industries.

上市企业：一汽富维（600742）,苏常柴Ａ（000570）,宗申动力（001696）,泰豪科技（600590）,克劳斯 （600579） 2020-2025年中国发电机组(发电设备)产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国风力发电设备行业市场现状调查及投资方向研究报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国发电机组(发电设备)产量为4248万千瓦，同比增长8.7%； 2025年1-12月中国发电机组(发电设备)累计产量为37087.4万千瓦，累计增长37.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power (000338)(02338) has seen its stock price rise over 4%, reaching a historical high of 30.98 HKD, driven by increasing demand for power supply solutions in the AI data center sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Weichai Power's stock increased by 4.73%, with a trading volume of 2.78 billion HKD [1] - The company is transitioning from primarily manufacturing heavy-duty truck powertrains to becoming a comprehensive supplier of AIDC power generation equipment [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Morgan Stanley has raised the projected cumulative power gap for U.S. data centers from 44 GW to 47 GW, equivalent to the total electricity consumption of 9 Miami or 15 Philadelphia [1] - The shortage of electricity supply is a critical bottleneck for the expansion of AI computing power, prompting tech giants to seek new solutions, including building their own power facilities [1] - Weichai Power's various AIDC power generation equipment businesses, such as reciprocating gas generator sets and SOFC, are expected to experience significant growth due to the rapid increase in global AIDC investments and the deepening electricity shortage in the U.S. [1]

官方将这一举措定性为一次性、针对性的紧急干预，核心目标是在不削弱美国AI竞争力的前提下，缓解 中大西洋地区因电力需求激增而快速上升的居民电价压力。事实上，部分科技公司已经开始主动调整策 略，直接投资发电资产或与能源企业合作建设专用电源，以支持更大规模的数据中心布局，并尽可能降低 对当地电价和社区的外溢影响。 上周的文章中我们提到，2026 年美国 AI 产业正在从"技术突破期"迈入"基础设施深化期"。如果说前一 阶段的核心竞争力在于模型能力、算力效率和算法突破，那么接下来的竞争焦点，正在快速转向"谁能更 快、更稳定、更低成本地获取算力"。而在算力背后，真正构成长期约束的就是电力与能源基础设施。 大型科技公司正在用真金白银为这一轮AI竞赛铺路。无论是新一代超大规模数据中心，还是为AI专用负 载定制的园区式算力集群，其共同特征都是能耗密集、用电持续、对供电稳定性要求极高。这使得能源问 题，从过去的"配套条件"，迅速上升为AI产业链中的关键变量。 美国最大电网运营商PJM Interconnection上周五（2月6日）警告称，受数据中心快速扩张推动，未来十 年其电网可能面临高达60吉瓦的电力供应缺口，相当于约60 ...

前言 财联社倾力打造王牌栏目《风口研报》，替您"扒一扒"市场含金量超高的研报、调研信息。以机构视 角，追踪研报和调研纪要细节里的"超预期"、"拐点"、"事件催化"和"价值洼地"。 ①深耕数据中心发电产品扩产关键环节，分析师强call公司作为卡特彼勒+康明斯+潍柴核心供应商，可充 分承接全球市场增长需求，有望充分受益北美缺电的刚性需求； ②业绩短暂承压但现金流为正，这家拥有 超千项专利的光伏"技术宅"不仅已补齐业务短板，还通过签订专利许可协议，展现技术创新优势。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the North American electricity shortage, driven by the non-linear growth of AI power demand and aging power grid infrastructure [1] - The demand side sees a surge in AIDC projects in the U.S., leading to a significant increase in electricity demand [1] - On the supply side, while total supply is expected to meet short-term demand by 2025, long-term challenges include a decline in stable supply and regional electricity shortages [1] Key Points Supply Challenges - **Decline in Stable Supply**: The aging power grid leads to frequent outages, failing to meet AIDC's requirement for 100% reliable power. The upcoming retirement peak of coal power plants and the instability of wind and solar energy further exacerbate the situation. Only natural gas can currently fill the gap [1][2] - **Regional Electricity Shortages**: By 2024, over 50% of data centers are expected to be located in Texas, California, and Virginia, putting significant pressure on regional power supplies. The fragmented nature of the U.S. power grid and poor interconnections have led to emergency controls due to power imbalances [1] Future Projections - NERC forecasts an average peak gap of over 20 GW in the U.S. from 2027 to 2030, with Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, and California facing significant risks. The DOE predicts an average peak gap of 20-40 GW by 2030 [1] Technology Solutions - **Gas Turbines**: Considered the optimal solution for AIDC self-built power, with efficiency exceeding 60% and the lowest cost per kWh. The global installation of gas turbines is accelerating, with major manufacturers like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries having orders scheduled until 2029 [2] - **Gas Internal Combustion Engines**: Slightly lower efficiency than gas turbines but offer rapid deployment. Leading company Wärtsilä saw a 111% year-on-year increase in new orders for Q1-Q3 2025, with deliveries extending to 2028 [2] - **Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC)**: High efficiency but currently in early commercialization stages, making it less viable in the short term due to cost and capacity constraints [2] - **Diesel Generators**: Optimal for backup power due to quick start-up capabilities, with Cummins reporting a revenue growth of approximately 20% year-on-year for related products in Q1-Q3 2025 [2] Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are expanding from gas turbines to gas internal combustion engines and SOFCs, as the current electricity shortage in North America exceeds the total production capacity of various technologies [3] - **Gas Turbines**: Recommended companies include Jerry Holdings, Yingliu Co., Dongfang Electric, Linde Co., and Haomai Technology [3] - **Gas Internal Combustion Engines**: Focus on Linde Co., with additional attention to Weichai Power and Eagle Precision [3] - **SOFC**: Suggested to monitor Weichai Power [3] - **Diesel Generators**: Recommended companies include Linde Co., with additional focus on KOTAI Power, Weichai Power, and Eagle Precision [3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include lower-than-expected investment in AI data centers, international trade tensions, and slower-than-anticipated capacity ramp-up [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights significant regional power supply pressures in the U.S. due to the increasing establishment of data centers, particularly in Texas, California, and Virginia, with projections indicating a substantial power gap by 2030 [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Over 50% of data centers are projected to be built in Texas, California, and Virginia by 2024, leading to considerable regional power supply stress [1][2]. - The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) anticipates an average peak power gap of over 20 GW from 2027 to 2030, with Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, and California facing significant risks [1][2]. - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts an average peak power gap of 20-40 GW by 2030 [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Challenges - The U.S. power supply is facing long-term challenges, including a decline in stable supply due to aging infrastructure and frequent outages, which cannot meet the 100% reliability demands of AI data centers [2]. - The upcoming retirement of coal power plants and the instability of wind and solar energy further exacerbate the supply issues, necessitating reliance on natural gas for current gaps [2]. Group 3: Technology Solutions - Gas turbines are identified as the optimal solution for self-built power generation in AIDC, with combined cycle gas turbines achieving over 60% efficiency and the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour [3]. - Gas internal combustion engines, while slightly less efficient, offer rapid deployment capabilities, with a significant increase in orders reported by leading companies [3]. - Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) have high efficiency but are still in early commercialization stages, making them less viable in the short term [3]. - Diesel generators are noted for their quick start-up advantages, serving as optimal backup power solutions [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are shifting from gas turbines to gas internal combustion engines and SOFCs, as the current power deficit in North America exceeds the total production capacity of various technologies [4]. - Recommended companies for gas turbines include Jerry Holdings, Yingliu Co., Dongfang Electric, Linde Co., and Haomai Technology [4]. - For gas internal combustion engines, Linde Co. is recommended, with additional attention to Weichai Power and Weichai Heavy Machinery [4]. - SOFC investments should focus on Weichai Power, while diesel generator investments recommend Linde Co. and other related companies [4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on investment opportunities in the North American electricity sector, particularly in gas turbines and complementary technologies like gas internal combustion engines, SOFC, and diesel generators [2][6]. Core Insights - The North American electricity shortage is driven by the non-linear growth of AI power demand and the aging of the power grid. The demand side sees a surge in AIDC projects, while the supply side faces challenges with declining stable supply and regional shortages [2][6][24]. - The report highlights that the total electricity supply in the short term can meet demand, but long-term projections indicate a significant peak gap of over 20GW annually from 2027 to 2030, particularly in Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, and California [2][30]. - Gas turbines are identified as the optimal solution for AIDC self-built power generation, with gas internal combustion engines, SOFC, and diesel generators serving as effective supplements [2][37]. Summary by Sections Section 1: North American Electricity Shortage - The current electricity shortage in North America stems from the contradiction between the non-linear growth of AI electricity demand and the aging infrastructure of the power grid. The electricity consumption in the U.S. is expected to reach historical highs in 2025-2026, driven by a significant increase in data center projects [6][15]. - The report notes that the share of electricity consumption from data centers will rise from 2% in 2018 to over 10% by 2028 [6][19]. Section 2: Power Source Selection - Gas turbines are recommended as the primary power source due to their efficiency and cost-effectiveness. The report outlines the advantages of various technologies, including gas internal combustion engines and SOFC, while emphasizing the need for a diversified approach to meet the growing electricity demand [2][37][39]. - The report provides a comparative analysis of different power generation technologies, highlighting gas turbines' high reliability and low emissions as key factors for their selection in AIDC projects [38][39]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investment opportunities in North America are expanding from gas turbines to include gas internal combustion engines and SOFC, as the current electricity shortage exceeds the total capacity of various technologies [2][6]. - Specific companies are recommended for investment based on their involvement in gas turbine production and related technologies, including Jerry Holdings, Yingliu Co., Dongfang Electric, and others [2][6].

| 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证5C | | --- | --- | --- | | 4123.09 | 14208.44 | 1541.5 | | +57.51 +1.41% +301.70 +2.17% +20.61 +1 | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全/ | | 1458.16 | 3332.77 | 6808.5 | | +35.76 +2.51% +96.31 +2.98% +126.03 +1 | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A5( | | 4719.06 | 8311.28 | 5899.2 | | +75.46 +1.63% +164.87 +2.02% +107.21 +1 | | | | 中证1000 | 中证2000 | 中证红和 | | 8233.78 | 3525.83 | 5709.0 | | | +182.20 +2.26% +73.05 +2.12% +37.95 +0 | | A股三大指数今日集体走高，截至收盘，沪指涨1.41%报4123点，深证成指涨2.17%，创业板指涨2.98%，科创50指数涨2.51%。全市场成交额2.27万 ...