Core Viewpoint - Investors are concerned about the return on massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI) as Microsoft and Meta Platforms prepare to release their earnings reports, which may provide insights into the profitability of such expenditures [1][4]. Group 1: Company Earnings and Market Reactions - Microsoft and Meta are among the top four companies in the U.S. for AI spending, with a projected capital expenditure of approximately $505 billion in 2026, up from an estimated $366 billion in 2025 [1]. - Since the last earnings report on October 29, 2022, Microsoft's stock has dropped by 11%, while Meta's stock has decreased by about 10%, contrasting with a 1.3% increase in the S&P 500 index during the same period [1]. - Investors are closely monitoring the return on investment for these expenditures, with Jonathan Kofsky from Janus Henderson emphasizing that quarterly evaluations will be critical [1][4]. Group 2: AI Spending and Market Implications - Any indication that Microsoft and Meta plan to invest more than expected in AI could pressure their stock prices, while benefiting companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron that stand to gain from such spending [4]. - Seagate has reported strong demand for high-capacity hard drives, which is expected to continue at least until 2027, positively impacting the stock prices of related companies [4]. - Kofsky noted that investor expectations are that results will often meet or exceed the upper limits of projections, particularly for AI infrastructure companies like Nvidia and TSMC [4]. Group 3: Microsoft and Meta's Specific Challenges - For Microsoft, the focus will be on its Azure cloud computing business, which is experiencing strong demand for AI service development and operation [5]. - Azure's revenue is expected to grow by 38% year-over-year in the second quarter, following a 39% increase in the first quarter [5]. - Investors are also interested in the progress of Microsoft's Copilot product, which is a key AI software tool for office workers, although details on its contribution to overall sales growth remain limited [5]. Group 4: Meta's Growth Pressure - Unlike Microsoft, Meta lacks a cloud computing business and relies on AI to enhance advertising targeting and user engagement on its social media platforms [6]. - Meta faces significant pressure to demonstrate how its AI spending translates into growth, especially after a previous drop in stock price following its commitment to increased capital expenditures without clear return timelines [6]. - Market expectations for Meta's fourth-quarter revenue are optimistic, projecting a 21% increase to $58.4 billion, with earnings per share expected to rise by 2.1% to $8.19 [5].

盘前市场动向 1. 1月28日(周三)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.04%，标普500指数期货涨0.37%，纳指期货涨 0.95%。 | = US 30 | 49,020.90 | 49,079.60 | 48,972.10 | +17.50 | +0.04% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 7,004.30 | 7.014.80 | 6,983.30 | +25.70 | +0.37% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 26,185.00 | 26,224.70 | 26,003.30 | +245.30 | +0.95% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数跌0.10%，英国富时100指数跌0.44%，法国CAC40指数跌0.96%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.03%。 | 德国DAX30 | 24,882.14 | 24,929.93 | 24,795.48 | -26.09 | -0.10% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 英国富时100 | 10,1 ...

大公司： 科大讯飞：预计2025年净利润同比增长40%-70% 36氪获悉，科大讯飞公告，公司预计2025年归母净利润为7.85亿元—9.5亿元，较上年同期增长 40%-70%，扣非净利润较上年同期增长30%-60%。同时，销售回款总额超过270亿元，较去年同期增长 超过40亿元，报告期末经营活动产生的现金流量净额超过30亿元，以上两项均创历史新高。 SK海力士全年营业利润47.2万亿韩元，继续评估美国上市等方案 SK海力士1月28日公布全年营业利润47.2万亿韩元，全年销售额97.1万亿韩元；四季度营业利润为19.17 万亿韩元，销售额32.83万亿韩元。该公司在监管文件中表示，正持续评估各种提升公司价值的方案， 包括可能在美国上市，尚未做出最终决定。（界面）原文链接 高盛：3.6万亿增量资金料流入中国股市 2026年，高盛在亚太区内"超配"中国股票。高盛首席中国股票策略分析师刘劲津28日指出，盈利增长是 驱动今年中国股票上涨的主要原因，同时他称，不计外资，预计将有3.6万亿规模的增量资金流入中国 股市，当中部分资金经"沪深港通"流入港股市场。据高盛估算，2026年国内的个人投资者出于增加股票 配置的考虑， ...

Core Insights - ASML's demand for advanced lithography equipment is driven by increased capital expenditures from chip manufacturers to expand AI-related chip production, leading to record orders in Q4 2025 [1] - The company reported Q4 2025 orders of €13.2 billion, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of €6.85 billion, with EUV orders accounting for over half of total orders [1] - ASML's Q4 2025 sales reached €9.718 billion, a 29% year-over-year increase, with a gross profit of €5.068 billion and a net profit of €2.84 billion, reflecting strong growth across key financial metrics [2] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 total net sales were €9.718 billion, with a gross margin of 52.2% and net income of €2.84 billion, resulting in an EPS of €7.35 [2] - For the full year 2025, total sales were €32.667 billion, with a gross profit of €17.258 billion and net income of €9.609 billion, leading to an EPS of €24.73 [2] - The company has raised its 2026 sales guidance to €34-39 billion, indicating a positive outlook compared to previous expectations of flat sales [2][3] Strategic Initiatives - ASML announced a new share buyback program worth €12 billion, expected to be completed by December 31, 2028, while also planning to streamline its technology and IT departments [3] - The company is the sole manufacturer of advanced lithography machines essential for producing cutting-edge chips, serving major clients like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, who are increasing investments due to rising demand for AI chips [3][4] - ASML's CEO noted a significant positive shift in clients' mid-term market assessments, driven by expectations of sustained AI-related demand, which is reflected in the record order intake [4]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a widespread price increase, affecting various segments including memory, passive components, and main control chips, driven by rising raw material costs and strong demand, particularly in AI applications [2][3][35]. Price Increases in Semiconductor Components - Companies like Zhongwei Semiconductor announced price hikes of 15%-50% for MCU and NOR Flash products starting January 2026 [2][60]. - Major memory manufacturers such as Samsung and SK Hynix have also raised prices significantly, with Samsung increasing NAND Flash prices by over 100% in Q1 2026 [20][22]. - Micron has reported a general price increase of approximately 20% across its product lines [23][24]. Price Increases in Raw Materials and PCB - Resonac announced a 30% price increase for copper-clad laminates and adhesive films starting March 1, 2026, due to tight supply and rising costs [8]. - Nanya Plastics raised prices for all CCL and PP products by 8% due to increases in raw material costs [12]. - Taisil has implemented price increases of 5%-10% for its copper-clad laminates in response to rising material costs [9]. Price Increases in Wafer Foundries - TSMC has informed clients of price increases for advanced nodes (5nm, 4nm, 3nm, 2nm) over four consecutive years, with expected increases of 8%-10% for 5nm and up to 50% for 2nm [15]. - SMIC has also raised prices by approximately 10% for certain capacities [16]. - TrendForce predicts that the average capacity utilization rate for 8-inch wafer foundries will rise to 85%-90% in 2026, prompting price increases of 5%-20% across the board [14]. Price Increases in Passive Components - Companies like Yageo and Walsin have announced price increases for tantalum capacitors and resistors, with Yageo raising prices by 15%-20% for certain resistor products [33][34]. - Other passive component manufacturers are also adjusting prices due to rising raw material costs, with increases ranging from 5% to 30% [32][40]. General Market Trends - The semiconductor market is seeing a significant increase in demand driven by AI applications, leading to widespread price adjustments across various sectors [35][58]. - Many companies are experiencing full order books, prompting them to consider further price increases in the near future [19][20].

中新网天津1月28日电 (记者 夏宾)重量仅990克、开机只要9秒、整机续航可超10小时......2026年天津市 两会于此间举行，天津市人大代表郭御风将一台搭载着最新移动计算CPU的长城笔记本电脑带上了大 会。 天津市人大代表郭御风接受中新网记者采访。夏宾 摄。 这款CPU正是"出厂"自郭御风就职的飞腾信息技术有限公司(下称"飞腾")。据他介绍，上述电脑性能得 益于国产芯片的高集成度与低功耗设计，标志着国产芯片与整机从"可用"向"好用"迈出了关键一步。 据今年天津市政府工作报告，其将在信创等特色领域体现天津价值支撑，在智算芯片等关键技术方面实 现突破。天津是中国信创产业链布局最为完整的城市之一，"十四五"期间，其信创产业规模年均增速超 10%，培育形成了以飞腾、麒麟、海光、中科曙光等为代表的领军企业。 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，完善新型举国体制，采取超 常规措施，全链条推动集成电路等重点领域关键核心技术攻关取得决定性突破。 郭御风说，"超常规措施"的提出，意味着国家决心打破常规路径依赖，以举国之力攻克最硬的"堡垒"。 郭御风透露，飞腾计划未来五年研发总投入超百亿元人 ...

软银集团正在商谈向人工智能公司OpenAI追加投资多达300亿美元，此举是软银创始人孙正义 (Masayoshi Son)在全球AI竞赛中巩固核心地位的最新尝试。 据知情人士透露，这家日本公司已经是ChatGPT制造商的最大支持者之一，目前正在商议向这家快速发 展的初创企业投入更多资金。其中一位要求匿名讨论私下谈判的人士称，软银考虑的最高金额为300亿 美元。他们提醒称，谈判仍存在变数，资金数额可能会发生变化。 周三，软银在东京市场的股价上涨了5.8%。 据知情人士透露，OpenAI首席执行官山姆.奥尔特曼一直在与中东的顶级投资者会面，为新一轮可能至 少筹集500亿美元的资金落实资金安排。这些知情人士称，这家ChatGPT的制造商希望在这一轮中筹集 500亿美元或更多资金，估值约为7500亿至8300亿美元。目前谈判尚处于早期阶段，金额可能会发生变 化。 此次潜在的巨额投资建立在双方已有的深度合作基础之上。软银已于2025年12月31日全面完成了其此前 承诺的400亿美元投资，最后一笔约225亿美元的注资通过软银愿景基金(SVF2)完成支付。截至去年底， 软银对OpenAI的总持股比例已达到约11%，成为其主 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 28 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、桥水基金创始人达利欧警告：美国就像一个火药桶，内战一触即发。美国已经 | | | | | 深深陷入第五阶段—"崩溃前阶段"，其特点是糟糕的金融状况和内部冲突。并且 | | | | | 有摇摇欲坠地进入第六阶段的风险，其标志是现有秩序通过内战或革命而崩溃。 | | | | | 2、数据显示，新兴市场股票和债券 ETF 合计录得 68.3 亿美元资金流入，尽管较前 | | | | | 一周略有回落，但已连续第 14 周实现净流入。中国相关 ETF 仍是资金最青睐的方 | | | | | 向，当周流入中国市场的资金达到 16.5 亿美元。 | | | | ...

中国经济这些年表面上看风光无限，GDP数字蹭蹭往上窜，可老百姓的钱包却越来越瘪。不少人抱怨消费拉不动，是因为大家没钱花，其实这话说对了一 半，深挖下去，问题出在产能堆得像山一样高，东西太多卖不出去，却没人愿意直面这个现实。 说起产能饱和，得从地方政府的玩法说起。中国经济过去几十年靠投资和出口拉动，地方政府之间像打比赛一样，比谁的GDP涨得快。最直接的招数就是上 大项目，建工厂，优惠政策一大堆，土地便宜，税收减免，配套设施齐全。 结果呢？同一个行业到处开花，比如光伏、新能源车，沿海到内陆，产业园一个接一个冒出来。供给端像打了鸡血，产能噌噌上涨，可市场需求没跟上，东 西卖不出去，企业只好打价格战，利润薄得像纸。 数据显示，2023年工业产能利用率在75%左右，有些行业更低，这意味着四分之一的产能闲着没事干。企业主一看不对劲，还得继续投钱抢份额，银行贷款 流水般进来，形成恶性循环。 老百姓手里钱有限，基本开支占大头，哪有余力买那些多出来的货？这不是缺钱那么简单，而是整个经济结构偏向生产端，消费端被挤到角落里去了。 工厂天天加班，仓库塞满货，可市场那边冷冷清清，这不就是典型的供给过剩吗？地方上还热衷于建厂拉投资，因为 ...

证券日报网讯 1月27日，北京君正在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司主流的计算芯片产品包含不 同的算力。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...