Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][11] - Release Date: August 1, 2025 [2][11] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2][11] Core Data BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Market**: On July 31, the closing price of the main contract was 11,495, down 280 from the previous day and 790 from the previous week; the open interest was 34,820, down 4,870 from the previous day and 14,008 from the previous week; the trading volume was 93,023, down 7,369 from the previous day and 55,619 from the previous week [3][12] - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 11,700, down 100 from the previous day and 400 from the previous week; the Chuanhua market price was 11,450, down 350 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,800, down 300 from the previous day and 400 from the previous week [3][12] - **Price Difference and Spread**: The cash - and - carry spread of cis - butadiene was 205, up 180 from the previous day and 390 from the previous week; the 8 - 9 month spread was 205, up 205 from the previous day and 180 from the previous week [3][12] - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 167, up 2 from the previous day and 110 from the previous week; the import profit was - 84,506, up 2,570 from the previous day and 2,534 from the previous week [3][12] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 9,150, down 100 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,200, down 100 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week [3][12] - **Profit**: The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 176, down 100 from the previous day and 590 from the previous week; the import profit was 210, down 79 from the previous day and 397 from the previous week [3][12] Downstream Products Profit - The profit of butadiene styrene rubber production was 725, down 200 from the previous day; the profit of ABS production was 261, up 29 from the previous day and down 57 from the previous week; the profit of SBS (791 - H) production was 930, unchanged from the previous day and up 410 from the previous week [3][12] Variety - to - Variety Spread - The spread between RU - BR was - 20,260, up 4,485 from the previous day and 13,323 from the previous week; the spread between NR - BR was - 22,545, up 4,570 from the previous day and 13,163 from the previous week; the spread between Thai mixed rubber and cis - butadiene was 2,550, down 200 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week [3][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint There is no explicit core viewpoint presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract and Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract on July 30 was 11,775, a daily decrease of 60 and an interval decrease of 100 compared to previous periods. The open interest of the main contract was 39,690, with a daily decrease of 1,446 and an interval decrease of 8,901. The trading volume was 100,392, a daily decrease of 4,222 and an interval decrease of 24,690. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 10,190 compared to the previous day, with an interval increase of 350 [3][12]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene - styrene basis was 425 on July 30, with a daily increase of 60 and no interval change. The 8 - 9 month spread was -50, a daily decrease of 20 and an interval decrease of 85. The 9 - 10 month spread was 25, a daily decrease of 5 and an interval increase of 5 [3][12]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,800, a daily decrease of 50 and an interval decrease of 100. The Chuanhua market price remained at 11,800, with no daily change and an interval increase of 50. The Qilu ex - factory price remained at 12,100, with no daily change and an interval increase of 100. CFR Northeast Asia was 1,475, with no daily change and an interval increase of 25. CFR Southeast Asia was 1,750, with no daily change and an interval increase of 20 [3][12]. - **Profitability**: The spot processing profit was 113 (the specific change is unclear from the incomplete data), with a daily increase of 52. The on - screen processing profit was 140, a daily increase of 42 and an interval increase of 359. The import profit was -86,839, a daily decrease of 36 and an interval decrease of 1,014. The export profit was -332, a daily increase of 42 and an interval increase of 277 [3][12]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,250, a daily decrease of 100 and an interval decrease of 450. The Jiangsu market price was 9,300, a daily decrease of 100 and an interval decrease of 300. The Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 9,400, with no daily change and an interval decrease of 200. CFR China was 1,090, a daily decrease of 10 and an interval decrease of 10 [3][12]. - **Profitability**: The carbon - four extraction profit data was incomplete. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 276, a daily decrease of 100 and an interval decrease of 440. The import profit was 310, a daily decrease of 18 and an interval decrease of 228. The export profit was -1,064, a daily increase of 86 and an interval increase of 340 [3][12]. Downstream Profit - The ABS production profit was 232, a daily decrease of 22 and an interval decrease of 94. The SBS production profit (791 - H) remained at 930, with no daily change and an interval increase of 340 [3][12]. Spread - **Inter - Variety Spread**: RU - BR was -24,745, a daily increase of 1,381 and an interval increase of 8,841. NR - BR was -27,115, a daily increase of 1,351 and an interval increase of 8,701. The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 2,750, with no daily change and an interval increase of 50 [3][12]. - **Intra - Variety Spread**: The difference between standard and non - standard butadiene rubber remained at 250, with no daily or interval change. The difference between butadiene styrene 1502 and 1712 remained at 1,100, with no daily or interval change [3][12].

Group 1: Report Information - The report is titled "Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" and is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on July 31, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Analysis Contract and Position - On July 30, the closing price of the BR main contract was 11,775, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly decrease of 100. The position was 39,690, a daily decrease of 1,446 and a weekly decrease of 8,901. The trading volume was 100,392, a daily decrease of 4,222 and a weekly decrease of 24,690. The warrant quantity was 10,190, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 350. The virtual - real ratio was 19.47, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 5 [4] Basis and Spread - The butadiene - styrene basis was 425 on July 30, a daily increase of 60 and no weekly change. The 8 - 9 month spread was - 50, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 85. The 9 - 10 month spread was - 5, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 5 [4] Price and Market - The Shandong market price of BR was 11,800 on July 30, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 100. The Chuanhua market price was 11,800, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50. The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,100, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100 [4] Processing and Profit - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,475, with no daily or weekly change. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,750, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 20. The spot processing profit was 52, a daily increase of 52 and a weekly increase of 359. The on - screen processing profit was 140, a daily increase of 42 and a weekly increase of 359. The import profit was - 86,839, a daily decrease of 36 and a weekly decrease of 1,014. The export profit was - 332, a daily increase of 42 and a weekly increase of 277 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Analysis Price and Market - The Shandong market price of BD was 9,250 on July 30, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 450. The Jiangsu market price was 9,300, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 300. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 200 [4] Processing and Profit - The CFR China price was 1,090, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 10. The carbon - four extraction profit was not available. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 276, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 440. The import profit was 310, a daily decrease of 18 and a weekly decrease of 228. The export profit was - 1,064, a daily increase of 86 and a weekly increase of 340 [4] Group 4: Downstream Profit Analysis - The butadiene - styrene production profit was 930, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 340. The ABS production profit was 232, a daily decrease of 22 and a weekly decrease of 94. The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 930, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 340 [4] Group 5: Inter - Variety Spread Analysis - On July 30, the RU - BR spread was - 24,745, a daily increase of 1,381 and a weekly increase of 8,841. The NR - BR spread was - 27,115, a daily increase of 1,351 and a weekly increase of 8,701. The Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 2,750, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50. The 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 2,700, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 150 [4]

Report Overview - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025-07-30 [1] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi [2] - Qualification Numbers: Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the support from cost and supply side for butadiene rubber has weakened, leading to a rapid rise and fall in both the futures and mainstream supply prices. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is passive. Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are slightly increasing. [2] - Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber units of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the Shandong Yihua butadiene unit is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, production enterprise inventories may still increase. [2] - In terms of demand, the production resumption of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, near the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises fell short of expectations, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and the overall order performance was insufficient. Some enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline. The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,650 - 12,200. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the position volume of the main contract was 39,690, a decrease of 1,446. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber was 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,290 tons, unchanged. [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 butadiene rubber from different manufacturers all decreased. For example, the price from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 175 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Brent crude oil was 72.51 dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.47 dollars; WTI crude oil was 69.21 dollars/barrel, an increase of 2.5 dollars. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 589.25 dollars/ton, an increase of 10.75 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,090 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 70%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 48.16%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan; the social inventory was 32,300 tons, unchanged; the manufacturer's inventory was 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the trader's inventory was 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons. [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.02%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.95 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.55 days, an increase of 0.37 days. As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. [2] 5. Industry News - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises basically resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86%. [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: July 30, 2025 - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [6][14] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View No core view explicitly stated in the provided content. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main BR contract on July 29 was 11,835, a daily decrease of 120 and a decrease of 265 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The open interest of the main BR contract on July 29 was 41,136, a daily decrease of 3,967 and a decrease of 8,215 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The trading volume of the main BR contract on July 29 was 104,614, a daily decrease of 46,246 and a decrease of 16,773 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. b. Basis and Spread - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 30 on a daily basis and increased by 115 compared to an earlier period; the basis of cis - butadiene rubber (two - oil) increased by 120 on a daily basis and 365 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The 8 - 9 month spread of BR increased by 5 on a daily basis and decreased by 45 compared to an earlier period; the 9 - 10 month spread increased by 5 on a daily basis and 5 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. c. Spot Market - The Shandong market price of BR on July 29 was 11,850, a daily decrease of 150 and a decrease of 150 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The Chuanhua market price of BR on July 29 was 11,800, a daily decrease of 100 and a decrease of 100 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The ex - factory price of Qilu BR on July 29 was 12,100, with no daily change and an increase of 100 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. d. Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit of BR on July 29 was 113, a daily increase of 3 and an increase of 309 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The on - screen processing profit of BR on July 29 was 98, a daily increase of 33 and an increase of 194 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The import profit of BR on July 29 was - 86,802, a daily decrease of 290 and a decrease of 987 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The export profit of BR on July 29 was - 375, a daily increase of 145 and an increase of 313 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. 2. BD (Butadiene) a. Spot Market - The Shandong market price of BD on July 29 was 9,350, a daily decrease of 150 and a decrease of 450 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The Jiangsu market price of BD on July 29 was 9,400, a daily decrease of 150 and a decrease of 250 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The ex - factory price of Yangzi BD on July 29 was 9,400, a daily decrease of 300 and a decrease of 200 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. b. Processing and Import - Export - The carbon tetrachloride extraction profit data of BD was unavailable on July 29 [3][11]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit of BD on July 29 was 376, a daily decrease of 150 and a decrease of 390 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The import profit of BD on July 29 was 328, a daily decrease of 163 and a decrease of 658 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The export profit of BD on July 29 was - 1,150, a daily increase of 141 and an increase of 291 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. 3. Downstream Profits - The production profit of styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) on July 29 was 475, a daily increase of 225 and an increase of 350 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The production profit of ABS was unavailable on July 29 [3][11]. - The production profit of SBS (791 - H) on July 29 was 930, a daily increase of 210 and an increase of 340 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. 4. Price Spreads a. Inter - variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread on July 29 was - 26,126, a daily increase of 3,912 and an increase of 8,165 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The NR - BR spread on July 29 was - 28,466, a daily increase of 3,827 and an increase of 8,030 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread on July 29 was 2,750, a daily increase of 50 and an increase of 100 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. - The 3L - SBR spread on July 29 was 2,750, a daily increase of 100 and an increase of 200 compared to an earlier period [3][11]. b. Intra - variety Spreads - The spread between standard and non - standard cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 250 [3][11]. - The spread between SBR 1502 and 1712 on July 29 was 1,100, a daily decrease of 100 and no change compared to an earlier period [3][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No relevant content provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - On July 25, the closing price of the main contract was 12,415, with a daily change of 130 and a weekly change not fully clear from the text [3][12]. - The main contract's open interest was 49,311, a daily increase of 483 and a weekly increase of 32,097 [3][12]. - The trading volume of the main contract was 160,791, a daily increase of 12,149 and a weekly increase of 70,426 [3][12]. - The warehouse receipt quantity remained at 9,840, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 140 [3][12]. - The virtual - real ratio was 25.06, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 16 [3][12]. - The Shun - Ding basis was - 215, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 195; the Shun - Ding basis (two - oil) was - 215, a daily decrease of 130 and a weekly decrease of 195 [3][12]. - The 8 - 9 month spread was - 30, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly decrease of 55; the 9 - 10 month spread was 15, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 15 [3][12]. - The Shandong market price was 12,200, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 500; the Chuanhua market price was 12,100, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 500 [3][12]. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,200, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 500 [3][12]. - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, with no daily or weekly change; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,730, with no daily or weekly change [3][12]. - The spot processing profit was 81, a daily increase of 24 and a weekly increase of 220; the on - screen processing profit was 296, a daily increase of 54 and a weekly increase of 415 [3][12]. - The import profit was - 87,056, a daily decrease of 16 and a weekly decrease of 3,271; the export profit was - 879, a daily decrease of 75 and a weekly decrease of 284 [3][12]. BD (Butadiene) - The Shandong market price on July 25 was 9,725, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 275; the Jiangsu market price was 9,750, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 300 [3][12]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,700, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 300 [3][12]. - CFR China was 1,100, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [3][12]. - The carbon - four extraction profit data was incomplete; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 866, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 370 [3][12]. - The import profit was 697, a daily increase of 90 and a weekly decrease of 80; the export profit was - 1,470, a daily increase of 64 and a weekly decrease of 282 [3][12]. Downstream Profits - The Shun - Ding production profit was 296, a daily increase of 54 and a weekly increase of 415; the Ding - Ben production profit was 700, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 125 [3][12]. - The ABS production profit data was incomplete; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 520, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 150 [3][12]. Price Spreads - The RU - BR spread was - 33,726, a daily decrease of 143 and a weekly decrease of 31,322; the NR - BR spread was - 35,991, a daily decrease of 283 and a weekly decrease of 31,452 [3][12]. - The Thai mixed - Shun - Ding spread was 2,900, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 100; the 3L - Ding - Ben spread was 2,750, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly increase of 100 [3][12]. - The Shun - Ding standard - non - standard price spread was 250, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly increase of 50; the Ding - Ben 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,150, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50 [3][12].

内容概况：作为全球最大的氯丁橡胶生产国和消费国之一，中国氯丁橡胶（CR）行业在汽车、建筑、 电子、医疗等多个下游领域需求持续增长的推动下，展现出较强的发展潜力。2025年1-5月，中国氯丁 橡胶（CR）产量为2.72万吨，同比增长15.80%；氯丁橡胶（CR）消费量为2.17万吨，同比增长 30.67%。 相关上市企业：中策橡胶（603049）、中化国际（600500）、海南橡胶（601118） 相关企业：中国石油化工股份有限公司、中国石油天然气股份有限公司、华新树脂（惠州）有限公司、 深圳市宝昌隆树脂有限公司、天津科恩建筑技术有限公司、北京鼎固伟业工程材料有限公司、常州强力 电子新材料股份有限公司、圣奥化学科技有限公司、山东尚舜化工有限公司、四川国光农化股份有限公 司、常州天晟新材料股份有限公司、河北华密新材科技股份有限公司、浙江仙通橡塑股份有限公司、中 策橡胶集团股份有限公司 关键词：氯丁橡胶（CR）、氯丁橡胶（CR）市场规模、氯丁橡胶（CR）行业现状、氯丁橡胶（CR） 发展趋势 一、行业概述 起步阶段（1951年至1959年）。1951年，东北科学院（中国科学院长春应用化学研究所前身）在实验室 合成出氯 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: July 28, 2025 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract on July 25 was 12,415, up 130 from the previous day [4]. - The open interest of the main contract on July 25 was 49,311, an increase of 483 from the previous day and 32,097 from the previous week [4]. - The trading volume of the main contract on July 25 was 160,791, up 12,149 from the previous day and 70,426 from the previous week [4]. - The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 9,840 on July 25 compared to the previous day, with a weekly increase of 140 [4]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio on July 25 was 25.06, up 16 from the previous week [4]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The butadiene rubber basis on July 25 was - 215, down 30 from the previous day and 195 from the previous week [4]. - The 8 - 9 month spread on July 25 was - 30, down 5 from the previous day and 55 from the previous week [4]. - The 9 - 10 month spread on July 25 was 15, down 25 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week [4]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - The Shandong market price of butadiene rubber on July 25 was 12,200, up 100 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week [4]. - The Transfar market price on July 25 was 12,100, up 200 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week [4]. - The Qilu Petrochemical ex - factory price on July 25 was 12,200, unchanged from the previous day but up 500 from the previous week [4]. 3.1.4 Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit on July 25 was 81, up 24 from the previous day and 220 from the previous week [4]. - The on - disk processing profit on July 25 was 296, up 54 from the previous day and 415 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit on July 25 was - 87,056, down 16 from the previous day and 3,271 from the previous week [4]. - The export profit on July 25 was - 879, down 75 from the previous day and 284 from the previous week [4]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) 3.2.1 Price - The Shandong market price of butadiene on July 25 was 9,725, up 75 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week [4]. - The Jiangsu market price on July 25 was 9,750, up 100 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week [4]. - The Yangzi Petrochemical ex - factory price on July 25 was 9,700, unchanged from the previous day but up 300 from the previous week [4]. - The CFR China price on July 25 was 1,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [4]. 3.2.2 Processing and Import - Export - The carbon - four extraction profit data for July 25 was not available [4]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on July 25 was 866, up 100 from the previous day and 370 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit on July 25 was 697, up 90 from the previous day and down 80 from the previous week [4]. - The export profit on July 25 was - 1,470, up 64 from the previous day and down 282 from the previous week [4]. 3.3 Downstream Profits - The butadiene rubber production profit on July 25 was 296, up 54 from the previous day and 415 from the previous week [4]. - The styrene - butadiene rubber production profit on July 25 was 700, unchanged from the previous day and up 125 from the previous week [4]. - The ABS production profit data for July 25 was not available [4]. - The SBS (791 - H) production profit on July 25 was 520, unchanged from the previous day and down 150 from the previous week [4]. 3.4 Variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread on July 25 was - 33,726, down 143 from the previous day and 31,322 from the previous week [4]. - The NR - BR spread on July 25 was - 35,991, down 283 from the previous day and 31,452 from the previous week [4]. - The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread on July 25 was 2,900, up 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week [4]. - The 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber spread on July 25 was 2,750, down 100 from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week [4]. - The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price difference on July 25 was 250, down 150 from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [4]. - The styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread on July 25 was 1,150, up 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a high - level pullback, while the medium - term trend is expected to be oscillatory. For butadiene, the short - term price is likely to experience a pullback, but the decline is expected to be limited. In the long - term, the supply pressure remains the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoints - **Supply**: The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber increased significantly this week. The production was 27,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.15%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week increase of 3.31 percentage points. It is expected that the production will continue to rise next week [4]. - **Demand**: In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains in the range of 800 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China increased slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly, while that of sample trading enterprises increased [4]. - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,500 - 12,400 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to be stable. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is around 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is around 11,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is relatively strong, with upper pressure at 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton and lower support at 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period strategy, and the NR - BR spread enters a short - term oscillatory range [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Viewpoints - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene supply increased this week, with a production of 103,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.99%, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.00%, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%. The increase in production was mainly due to the restart of the Shenghong Petrochemical plant [5]. - **Demand**: In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at a rigid level [5]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to decline this period, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.68%. The sample port inventory decreased to a low level for the year, with the latest inventory in East China ports at around 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the butadiene spot price is expected to pull back, but the decline is limited. In the long - term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [10][12]. - **Supply - side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate and production of butadiene have shown certain fluctuations. Some plants have experienced shutdowns and restarts, affecting the overall supply [14][15]. - **Net Imports**: The net imports of butadiene have also fluctuated, affected by factors such as import and export prices and market demand [16]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of Butadiene Rubber and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacities of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber have been increasing, with new production capacities put into operation in multiple enterprises in recent years [17]. - **Demand - side - Operating and Maintenance Conditions of Butadiene Rubber and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber have shown fluctuations, and some plants have planned shutdowns for maintenance [20][21][22]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of ABS and SBS**: The capacities of ABS and SBS have also been expanding. In 2024, the ABS capacity increased by 2.06 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons. In 2024, the SBS capacity increased by 160,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 40,000 tons [26]. - **Inventory - side**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene have all shown certain trends of change over time [29][30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Production**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber has shown fluctuations, and the operating rates of different plants vary. Some plants have restarted, while others have planned shutdowns for maintenance [35][36]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber have shown different trends over time [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber have shown certain fluctuations [40][41]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber have all shown different trends of change [46][47]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires**: The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown certain trends of change, which have an impact on the demand for butadiene rubber [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a high - level pullback, while the medium - term trend is expected to be in a volatile pattern. For butadiene, the short - term price is expected to correct, and in the long - term, it will re - enter a weak pattern after the macro sentiment eases [2][4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View Supply - The production capacity of previously restarted high - cis butadiene rubber plants was released, and the load of an individual plant in North China increased. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber this week was 27,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.15%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week increase of 3.31 percentage points. Yanshan Petrochemical's butadiene rubber plant has produced high - grade products after restarting. It is expected that the production of domestic butadiene rubber will continue to increase next week [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline in the next cycle. At the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises was lower than expected, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts remains in the range of 800 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a slight increase from the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. Due to the influence of macro news and rising raw material costs, the spot and futures markets were expected to be strong, the supply price increased significantly, and some arbitrageurs actively tried to buy, resulting in a slight decrease in the inventory of sample producers and an increase in the inventory of sample traders [4]. View - In the short term, the futures price of butadiene rubber is expected to pull back from a high level and enter a volatile pattern in the medium term. On Friday night, with a large number of speculative funds leaving the market, the commodity index fell from a high level, and synthetic rubber followed suit. In addition, with the strengthening of the basis, the liquidity of spot and futures sources in the spot market is expected to be released, bringing supply - side selling pressure to the spot market. In the medium term, butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate mainly due to three reasons: the anti - involution policy is still in progress, which supports the overall valuation of commodities; the overall rubber sector is supported by fluctuations, and the raw material prices in Thailand have stabilized; the fundamentals of the synthetic rubber industry chain have improved marginally, with the inventory of synthetic rubber sample enterprises decreasing slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the tight supply of port goods due to the low arrival volume of butadiene in July [4]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,500 - 12,400 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to be stable. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. When the main BR2509 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (the monthly holding cost is about 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity, which will increase the pressure on the upper space of the futures market. The theoretical lower limit of the valuation is 11,500 yuan/ton, as butadiene is expected to support the butadiene rubber price from the cost side [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, it is relatively strong, with the upper pressure at 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton and the lower support at 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton. There is no strategy for inter - delivery spread trading, and the NR - BR price difference will enter a volatile range in the short term [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View Supply - Some plants restarted operation this week, increasing the domestic butadiene supply. The output this period was 103,400 tons, a 2.99% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.00%, a 2.04% increase from the previous period. The increase in output was mainly due to the restart of Shenghong Petrochemical's plant [5]. Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remained high, maintaining a high year - on - year demand for butadiene. With the resumption of butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase. For ABS, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with no significant increase. For SBS, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained at a rigid level with limited price changes [5]. Inventory - From July 17 - 23, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to decline, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.68%. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly by 1.07% week - on - week, and the overall inventory fluctuation was limited. The inventory of sample ports decreased by 21.50% week - on - week, reaching a record low for the year due to reasons such as weather - related delays in some ship arrivals and limited imports in July, resulting in tight tradable volumes in the main port storage areas [5]. View - In the short term, as commodities correct and trading volume weakens, the spot price of butadiene is expected to decline. However, the decline is expected to be limited as the arrival volume of butadiene in July is expected to be low, and port prices may remain resilient. In the long term, the supply pressure of butadiene is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is expected to re - enter a weak pattern after the macro sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals Capacity - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude of expansion being slightly faster than that of downstream industries at certain stages [10]. Supply - side (Capacity and Maintenance) - Many plants have new production capacity coming on - stream from 2024 to 2025, with a total of 380,000 tons in 2024 and 860,000 tons in 2025. There have also been multiple plant maintenance events, affecting production capacity utilization [10][12][15]. Demand - side - The production capacity of downstream butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber has been expanding, and new plants have been put into operation. The production capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased, with significant capacity increments in 2024 and 2025 [17][26]. Inventory - side - The weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene have shown different trends over time, with the current port inventory at a low level due to factors such as limited imports and weather - related delays [29][30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals (Butadiene Rubber) Supply - The production and operating rates of butadiene rubber have changed. Some plants have restarted, and some have planned maintenance. The production cost, profit, and import - export volume of butadiene rubber also have corresponding trends [36][37][41]. Demand - The demand for butadiene rubber is mainly related to the tire industry. The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown different trends over time, which will affect the demand for butadiene rubber [51][52].