Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the provided text. The report mainly presents a series of data on the synthetic rubber market, including prices, trading volumes, positions, and profit margins. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Position Data**: On July 2, the closing price of the main contract was 11,260, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 35. The position of the main contract was 27,889, a daily increase of 478. The trading volume was 89,875, a daily decrease of 2,622 and a weekly increase of 52,061. The warehouse receipt quantity was 7,700, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1,070 [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene - styrene basis was 640 on July 2, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 35. The 7 - 8 spread was 150, with no daily or weekly change. The 8 - 9 spread was 82, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 5 [4]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,500 on July 2, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50. The Chuanhua market price remained at 11,350, and the Qilu ex - factory price remained at 11,700 [4]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was 248 on July 2, a daily increase of 282 and a weekly increase of 486. The futures processing profit was 8, a daily increase of 332 and a weekly increase of 571. The import profit was - 83,741, a daily decrease of 66 and a weekly increase of 103. The export profit was - 267, a daily increase of 45 and a weekly increase of 207 [4]. b. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price on July 2 was 8,875, a daily decrease of 325 and a weekly decrease of 525. The Jiangsu market price was 8,950, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 400. The Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 9,200, with a weekly decrease of 400 [4]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The carbon - four extraction profit decreased from 2,790 to 2,116. The butene oxidation - dehydrogenation profit was - 284 on July 2, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 50. The import profit was - 121, a daily decrease of 121 and a weekly decrease of 224. The export profit was - 267, a daily increase of 45 and a weekly increase of 207 [4]. c. Downstream Profits - The butadiene - styrene production profit remained at 613 on July 2, with a weekly increase of 350. The SBS (791 - H) production profit was 840, with a weekly increase of 340 [4]. d. Inter - Variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread was - 13,764 on July 2, a daily decrease of 448 and a weekly decrease of 19,911. The NR - BR spread was - 15,614, a daily decrease of 513 and a weekly decrease of 19,801. The Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 2,450, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 300 [4]. e. Intra - Variety Spreads - The butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,100 on July 2, a daily decrease of 50 and no weekly change [4].

永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/7/1 6/26 6/27 6/30 日度变化 周度变化 11250 -25 -325 11195 11275 36383 33472 28291 -5181 17417 108330 96846 96678 -168 -2869 6530 7700 7700 1070 0 -3 27.86 21.74 18.37 10 25 275 3 22 300 125 202 425 450 25 25 25 75 705 675 700 | 36383 | | 播 | 主力合约持仓量 主力合约成交量 | 33898 | 10874 | | 33472 | 28291 | -5181 | 17417 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 108330 | | | | 163945 | 102647 | | 96846 | 96678 | -168 | -2969 | | | | | 仓单数量 | 12290 | 6630 | 6530 | 7700 | 7700 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the geopolitical situation in the Middle East eases, the crude oil market weakens significantly, the butadiene market fluctuates slightly, and the cost - side support for cis - butadiene rubber is insufficient. The spot trading pressure persists, and there are still expectations of a slight increase in the inventory of production and trading enterprises. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates. The br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,800 - 11,500 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 28,291, a decrease of 5,181. The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber is 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 700 tons, with no change [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai remain unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 25 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is at 67.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.04 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is at 569.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 850 US dollars/ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,090 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.28 US dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton; WTI crude oil is at 65.52 US dollars/barrel [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.75%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week is 27,450 tons, a decrease of 950 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 45.02%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.94 million tons, an increase of 1.79 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 68.54%, an increase of 2.22 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,165 yuan/ton; the social inventory at the end of the week is 3.41 million tons, an increase of 0.07 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory at the end of the week is 27,650 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the trader's inventory at the end of the week is 6,370 tons, a decrease of 450 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.05%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires is 65.64%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points. The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1,182 million pieces, a decrease of 126 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,415 million pieces, a decrease of 124 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 41.93 days, an increase of 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 48.15 days, an increase of 0.73 days [2]. Industry News - As of June 26, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 3.41 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 million tons and 1.34%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China is 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.61 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.84 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.32 percentage points. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market is about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2]. Key Points to Watch - No news today [2].

Report Summary Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that synthetic rubber will experience short - term oscillatory movements. The fundamentals of the synthetic rubber industry, including both butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber, are currently in a neutral to slightly weak state, with no obvious trends in the short term [2][4]. Directory Summaries 1. Market Judgment - **Futures - end Static Valuation**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The upper valuation limit is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is 11,200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices remain stable, with a neutral domestic fundamental situation and prices oscillating around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Supply is high, imports are neutral, demand is stable, production - enterprise inventories are rising, and port inventories are slightly declining [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to maintain a high year - on - year level and increase month - on - month. Demand remains high, and inventories are at a high year - on - year level. The fundamentals have a weak driving force, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, with the temporary easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation and the rebound of natural rubber, the cis - butadiene rubber futures are expected to oscillate without an obvious trend [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral short - term oscillatory movement; the spread between NR - BR widens [4]. 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with a slightly faster pace than downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [9][11]. - **Supply - side**: The industry's operating rate is at a high year - on - year level. With the resumption of some ethylene plants, the weekly output remains high. Some enterprises have maintenance plans, which will affect production [13][14][15]. - **Net Imports**: Short - term import volumes are neutral [4]. - **Demand - side**: - **Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Capacity**: New capacity has been put into operation in recent years, and more is expected in 2025 [19]. - **ABS and SBS Capacity**: There was significant capacity expansion in 2024 and 2025 [28]. - **Fundamentals**: ABS has stable operating rates, profits, and inventory levels. SBS has a certain capacity utilization rate [29][30]. - **Inventory - side**: Production - enterprise inventories are rising, and port inventories are slightly declining [4]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply**: - **Output**: The weekly output shows certain fluctuations, and the operating rate is expected to remain high [38]. - **Cost and Profit**: The processing profit is gradually returning to above the break - even line [4]. - **Imports and Exports**: Import and export volumes show historical trends [43][44]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise, futures, and trader inventories are at certain levels, with enterprise inventories at a high year - on - year level [48][49]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - side**: - **Tire**: Shandong's all - steel tire inventory and domestic semi - steel and all - steel tire operating rates show historical trends [52][53].

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: On June 26, the closing price of the main contract was 11,195, down 30 from the previous day and 575 from the previous week; the position was 36,383, up 28,760 from the previous day and 21,249 from the previous week; the trading volume was 108,330, up 70,516 from the previous day and 27,228 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 6,530, down 100 from the previous day and the previous week [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene rubber basis was 30 higher than the previous day and 275 higher than the previous week; the 7 - 8 month spread was 120, down 30 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the 8 - 9 month spread was 90, up 10 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,550, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week; the Chuanhua market price was 11,350, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week [4]. - **Processing and Import - Export**: The spot processing profit was - 85, up 153 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week; the on - disk processing profit was - 440, up 123 from the previous day and down 269 from the previous week; the import profit was - 83,843, unchanged from the previous day and up 2,291 from the previous week; the export profit was - 474, unchanged from the previous day and up 245 from the previous week [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,250, down 150 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,250, down 100 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,600, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week; the CFR China price was 1,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 30 from the previous week [4]. - **Processing and Import - Export**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 54, up 180 from the previous day and down 210 from the previous week; the import profit was 179, down 100 from the previous day and 579 from the previous week; the export profit was - 1,021, up 87 from the previous day and down 390 from the previous week [4]. Downstream Products - **Production Profit**: The butadiene - styrene rubber production profit was 263, unchanged from the previous day and down 325 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was 204, down 45 from the previous day and up 206 from the previous week; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 960 (data incomplete), unchanged from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week [4]. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spread**: RU - BR was - 22,343, down 28,490 from the previous day and 21,239 from the previous week; NR - BR was - 24,238, down 28,425 from the previous day and 21,384 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 2,400, up 250 from the previous day and 370 from the previous week; the 3L - butadiene - styrene rubber spread was 2,750, up 100 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week [4]. - **Intra - Variety Spread**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 250, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week; the butadiene - styrene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,150, up 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [4].

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-06-26 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11195 | -30 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 36383 | 28760 | | | 合成橡胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | 120 | -30 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 700 | -100 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR ...

jis 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/24 | | | 指标 | 5/22 | 6/16 | 6/19 | 6/20 | 6/23 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11895 | 11565 | 11770 | 11630 | 11575 | -25 | 10 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 13554 | 18319 | 15134 | 13196 | 10874 | -2322 | -7445 | | | 居面 | 主力合约成交量 | 74911 | 159100 | 81102 | 106439 | 102647 | -3792 | -56453 | | | | 仓単数量 | 10490 | 12520 | 6630 | 6630 | 6630 | 0 | -5890 | | | | 虚实比 | 6.46 | 7.32 | 11.41 | તે તે તે આ ગામમ | 8.20 | -2 | T | | | | ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/6/23 | | | 指标 | 5/21 | 6/13 | 6/18 | 6/19 | 6/20 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11900 | 11390 | 11740 | 11770 | 11630 | -140 | 240 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 15064 | 19801 | 16777 | 15134 | 13196 | -1938 | -୧୧୦୮ | | | STET | 主力合约成交量 | 97613 | 206269 | 104964 | 81102 | 106439 | 25337 | -99830 | | | | 仓単数量 | 10490 | 12520 | 12290 | 6630 | 6630 | 0 | -5890 | | | | 虚实比 | 7.18 | 7.91 | 6.83 | 11.41 | તે જેવી સ | -1 | 2 | | | | 顺丁基差 | 300 | 210 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber will follow crude oil and remain in a high - level oscillation. In the medium term, due to the high supply and the supply growth rate exceeding the demand growth rate, there is still significant fundamental pressure. The current main contradiction in the market may be the geopolitical conflict from a macro perspective [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情研判 - **Futures - end static valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to oscillate. The upper valuation of the futures price is around 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton, and when the main BR2507 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong, there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity. The theoretical bottom valuation range is 11,400 yuan/ton [4]. - **Butadiene fundamentals**: The price of Asian butadiene remains stable, and the domestic butadiene market has seen improved short - term transactions, with prices oscillating around 9,500 yuan/ton. The industry's operating rate is still high year - on - year and has increased month - on - month. Short - term imports are neutral. Demand from butadiene rubber remains neutral, and there is also rigid demand from styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS. Inventories of production enterprises and ports have increased slightly. Overall, butadiene is expected to oscillate with support [4]. - **Butadiene rubber fundamentals**: The processing profit of butadiene rubber has gradually returned above the break - even line, and the supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year and increase month - on - month. The apparent demand this week remains high, but the substitution demand is expected to decline. Inventories have been at a high level year - on - year. The current fundamentals have a weak driving force, and spot prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Butadiene rubber futures**: In the short term, the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed up international energy prices, and synthetic rubber, as a crude oil chemical product, may oscillate at a high level following oil products. In the medium term, the fundamentals are under pressure. Overall, the market is mainly affected by the geopolitical conflict, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and face pressure after returning to fundamentals in the medium term [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral positions are short - term bullish; the spread between NR - BR is expected to narrow [4] 3.2丁二烯基本面 - **Pricing stage**: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage and has a low correlation with the raw material end [7]. - **Capacity expansion**: To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene rubber, and butadiene rubber, butadiene capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [9]. - **New capacity in 2024 and 2025**: In 2024, a total of 380,000 tons of new capacity were put into operation, and in 2025, 860,000 tons are expected to be added, mainly through the C4 extraction process [11]. - **Supply - side operating rate**: The overall operating rate of butadiene is high, with some fluctuations due to enterprise maintenance. The total weekly production capacity is 1.4167 million tons, and the operating rate is 69.95%, with a weekly output of 991,000 tons [15]. - **Net imports**: Short - term imports are neutral, with data showing monthly import and export volume changes [16]. - **Demand - side capacity**: The capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expanding, with new projects being put into operation in multiple regions. For example, in 2024 - 2026, new capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber will be added in Zhejiang, Shandong, and other places [19]. - **Demand - side operating and maintenance**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber vary among enterprises, with some in normal operation, some under reduced load, and some under maintenance [24]. - **ABS and SBS capacity**: The capacity of ABS and SBS has also been increasing. In 2024, the ABS capacity increased by 2.06 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons. For SBS, the capacity increased by 160,000 tons in 2024 and is expected to increase by 250,000 tons in 2025 [28]. - **ABS and SBS fundamentals**: The operating rate, net profit, inventory, and capacity utilization of ABS and SBS show certain trends and fluctuations [29][30]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of butadiene production enterprises and ports have increased slightly, and the total inventory shows an upward trend [32][33][34] 3.3合成橡胶基本面 - **Butadiene rubber supply - production**: The weekly production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows certain trends and fluctuations, and the operating rate of enterprises also varies [39]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - cost and profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [41][42][43]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - import and export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber show certain trends [44][47]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - inventory**: The inventories of butadiene rubber enterprises, traders, and futures are at a relatively high level year - on - year [50][51]. - **Butadiene rubber demand - tires**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province and the operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires show certain trends [54][55]

研究中心能化团队 2025/6/20 | | | 指标 | 5/20 | 6/12 | 6/17 | 6/18 | 6/19 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 12070 | 11035 | 11485 | 11740 | 11770 | 30 | 735 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 16991 | 21103 | 16181 | 16777 | 15134 | -1643 | -5969 | | | 居面 | 主力合约成交量 | 94802 | 121876 | 111310 | 104964 | 81102 | -23862 | -40774 | | | | 仓単数量 | 10290 | 12820 | 12290 | 12290 | 6630 | -5660 | -6190 | | | | 虚实比 | 8.26 | 8.23 | 6.58 | 6.83 | 11.41 | 5 | 3 | | | | 顺丁基差 | 330 | 515 | 115 ...