[Table_Page] 宏观经济|定期报告 2026 年 1 月 18 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 技术进步两阶段的宏观效应 宏观周度述评系列（2026.01.12-01.18） [报告摘要 Table_Summary：] 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1注：未特别说明，报告数据来自 wind，彭博 | [Table_Author] 分析师： | 郭磊 | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | | SFC CE No. BNY419 | | | 021-38003572 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈礼清 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523080003 | | | 021-38003809 | | | chenliqing@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | 021-38003674 | | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 钟林楠 | | | SAC 执 ...

面对压力，特朗普的核心幕僚开始尝试"找个台阶下"。 智通财经APP获悉，围绕美联储的各种斗争，终于迎来了终局时刻。 随着针对现任主席鲍威尔的刑事调查引发政治反噬，以及下周三最高法院即将审理的关键案件，围绕美 联储的种种权力博弈可能都会在下周决出胜负。 调查鲍威尔：政治反噬与"找个台阶下" 针对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事调查，似乎正在演变成一场对特朗普政府的政治反噬。 上周末，美国检察官就美联储大楼装修费用向鲍威尔发出传票。1月11日，鲍威尔罕见地发表强硬声 明，痛斥此举是破坏央行独立性的借口。 这一反击在共和党内部引发共鸣，似乎正在变成向白宫传递了清晰信号：若不终止调查，下一任美联储 主席提名人的确认程序将面临巨大阻力。 目前，最高法院发出的信号倾向于保护库克，但在周三的庭审中，任何立场的摇摆都可能引发市场的剧 烈震荡。 上周五，美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特在福克斯商业频道试图淡化事态，称这只是"简单的信息 索取"，暗示一旦信息提交，此事便可翻篇。 财政部长斯科特·贝森特随后附和，暗示只要检察官珍妮·皮罗得到"满意的答复"，此事便可翻篇。 这种态度转变背后的逻辑显而易见：特朗普需要维持"未下令调查"的推诿空 ...

Core Insights - The underlying logic of commodities and liquor is interconnected, primarily revolving around the trading of Federal Reserve QE, which is expected to lead to increased dollar liquidity by 2026, marking the beginning of a new cycle for the liquor industry [1][11]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve initiating QE significantly increases by mid-2026, driven by the current administration's push for interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to alleviate inflationary pressures in the U.S. [2][14]. - Once the Federal Reserve begins QE, the People's Bank of China is expected to follow suit with debt monetization, leading to a recovery in the real economy and a return to prosperity in 2026 [3][20]. Group 1: Commodity and Liquor Logic - The current commodity supercycle is driven by the expectation of rampant dollar liquidity due to the Federal Reserve's QE, which will also enhance the appeal of commodities with monetary and safety attributes [1][11]. - The initiation of QE by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to prompt the People's Bank of China to quickly implement debt monetization, thereby improving the balance sheets of the real economy and enhancing consumer capacity and willingness [1][11]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's QE Probability - The current administration's core demand for interest rate cuts is expected to lead to a significant reduction in inflationary pressures, which will likely force the Federal Reserve to initiate QE [2][14]. - By mid-2026, the Federal Reserve is projected to face a liquidity crunch that may compel it to expand its balance sheet through QE, marking a critical window for such actions [2][16]. Group 3: Liquor Industry Revival - The liquor industry has experienced four cycles since 2003, and the anticipated QE in 2026 is expected to initiate a new cycle, driven by a return to prosperity and increased consumer spending [4][25]. - The combination of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a strengthening yuan is expected to accelerate the return of national wealth, thereby enhancing consumer demand and initiating a new cycle for the liquor industry [7][28]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that will benefit from the anticipated QE, including oil, chemicals, liquor, and high-end manufacturing, as the market is expected to reach new highs [8][31]. - Specific investment strategies include emphasizing metals, consumer goods, and high-end manufacturing sectors that are poised to benefit from the return of cross-border capital and improved consumer sentiment [8][31].

上周国际市场风云变幻，美国司法部调查美联储主席鲍威尔引发争议，贵金属市场迎来巨震。 市场方面，美股全线回落，道指周跌0.29%，纳指周跌0.66%，标普500指数周跌0.38%。欧洲三大股指 分化，英国富时100指数周涨1.09%，德国DAX 30指数周涨0.14%，法国CAC 40指数周跌1.23%。 本周看点颇多，美国核心个人消费支出（PCE）或影响美联储降息走向。日本央行料维持政策不变，众 议院解散且提前大选的相关消息公布后，政策指引将成市场焦点。欧美经济体相关数据将考验各国经济 现状。美股财报季进入第二周，奈飞、英特尔业绩料成为焦点。 欧美经济体公布1月PMI，日本央行是否释放进一步降息信号。 美股财报季进入第二周，除了金融股以外，明星科技股开始亮相，奈飞、英特尔等业绩受到关注。此 外，强生、雅培、美国铝业、哈里伯顿等各行业龙头企业成绩单也会披露"成绩单"。 原油与黄金 尽管市场对于美国即将对伊朗采取军事行动的担忧有所缓解，但供应端风险仍是市场关注的核心，国际 油价连续第四周上涨。WTI原油周涨0.54%，报59.44美元/桶，布伦特原油近月合约周涨1.25%，报64.13 美元/桶。 下周，一年一度 ...

宏观新闻 1、中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局1月17日联合发布通知称，商业用房（含"商住两用房"）购房 贷款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。 2、多名中国公民在柬失联失踪，中国驻柬埔寨大使汪文斌约见柬副首相。汪大使表示，中方高度重视 保护在柬中国公民安全及合法权益，敦促柬方采取切实措施严打针对中国公民的非法拘禁、暴力伤害等 犯罪行为及网络诈骗活动，提高营救效率，确保在柬中国公民安全。 3、东部战区新闻发言人徐承华陆军大校表示，1月16日至17日，美"菲恩"号导弹驱逐舰、"西尔斯"号海 洋测量船过航台湾海峡。中国人民解放军东部战区组织海空兵力对美舰过航行动全程跟监警戒，有效应 对处置。 6、央广网17日发布财经评论文章称，2026年开年以来，A股两融余额屡创新高，市场交投活跃度持续 攀升。当火热情绪退潮，留给市场更多的应该是冷静思考：上市公司与其蹭热点、炒作股价，不如扎实 修炼内功，持续提升经营质量与信息披露水平。只有真正成为符合高质量发展要求的市场主体，才能穿 越周期波动，实现公司与投资者的共赢，让A股能够实现"慢牛""长牛"型健康发展，共享中国经济高质 量发展的红利。 7、资深投资人麦朴思表示，在经历 ...

Core Insights - The cooperation between Hainan and Hong Kong is evolving from industrial alignment to institutional innovation, enhancing economic and trade investment, financial services, healthcare, cultural tourism, and talent exchange [1][2][9] - Since 2018, Hong Kong has established 3,470 enterprises in Hainan, with actual use of Hong Kong capital reaching $88.26 billion, accounting for 74.7% of Hainan's total foreign capital [1] Policy Foundation - The signing of a memorandum in 2025 will formalize cooperation in five key areas: economic investment, finance, data security, tourism, and talent exchange, marking a shift to a systematic and institutionalized collaboration [2] - Hainan's unique policies, such as "zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax systems," complement Hong Kong's global business network and professional services [2] - The introduction of measures for the recognition of professional qualifications from Hong Kong is a pioneering policy in China, allowing qualified professionals to practice in Hainan without re-examination [2] Implementation Outcomes - The legal services sector has seen significant collaboration, with around 60 arbitrators from Hong Kong in Hainan International Arbitration Court, enhancing the legal service environment [3] - Hainan has issued offshore RMB local government bonds in Hong Kong for four consecutive years, raising a total of 18 billion RMB to support over 200 projects, thereby reducing financing costs [3] - A pilot program for cross-border data flow between Hainan and Hong Kong is set to launch in 2024, facilitating compliant data transmission to Southeast Asia [4] Cross-Regional Collaboration - Hainan aims to strengthen practical cooperation with the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, enhancing innovation and industrial value chains [5] - The establishment of benchmark projects in healthcare, cultural tourism, and high-end manufacturing is underway, showcasing the integration of industries [5][6] - The partnership in healthcare includes the establishment of a joint laboratory with Hong Kong University, yielding significant breakthroughs in tropical disease research [6] Talent Integration - The free flow of talent is crucial for deepening cooperation, with various support policies introduced for Hong Kong professionals in Hainan [8] - The Hainan-Hong Kong Youth Innovation and Entrepreneurship Service Center has supported over 20 entrepreneurial projects and organized numerous activities for Hong Kong youth [8] - A Hong Kong entrepreneur reported a 200% revenue increase, highlighting the supportive environment for youth entrepreneurship in Hainan [8] Future Prospects - The ongoing collaboration between Hainan and Hong Kong is expected to yield further advancements in financial services, data security, and green development [9] - The establishment of cooperation demonstration zones will accelerate economic collaboration, enhancing the overall synergy between the two regions [9]

Group 1: Growth Trends - The "first growth curve" driven by the "numerator" is recognized, with a shift from infrastructure to manufacturing exports expected in 2025[4] - China's overseas investment demand is still on a high growth trajectory, with a three-year rapid growth cycle observed in capital goods exports[4] - In 2025, direct investment in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is projected to increase significantly, particularly in Asia and Africa[4] Group 2: Risks and Challenges - Geopolitical risks, particularly from Western countries, are increasingly impacting overseas investment decisions, exemplified by the U.S. "long-arm jurisdiction" policies[4] - Emerging economies face challenges related to economic stability and high debt levels, with African nations experiencing a shift from concessional loans to higher-cost commercial loans[4] - High inflation rates in regions like Africa, averaging 18.6% in 2024, pose risks to profit margins for companies operating abroad[4] Group 3: Strategic Responses - The Chinese government aims to enhance cooperation with BRI countries and improve risk management in overseas investments as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan[4] - Development of international financial infrastructure, such as the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, is seen as a key lever to mitigate risks associated with overseas investments[4] - The establishment of a gold central clearing system in Hong Kong is expected to facilitate RMB-denominated gold transactions, enhancing financial stability for emerging economies[4]

就在全球疯狂抢购美国国债创下历史新高的时候，中国却反其道而行，单月抛售61亿美元美债，持仓量跌至2008年以来最低点！ 更巧合的是，特朗普突然 改口，宣布暂时不解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。 这两件事看似无关，却可能藏着千丝万缕的联系，背后是一场关乎全球金融秩序的大博弈。 美国财政部最新数据显示，2025年11月，海外投资者持有的美国国债总额冲到9.36万亿美元，刷新历史纪录。 挪威、加拿大、沙特这些国家都在拼命加仓， 好像美债是香饽饽。 但中国的操作完全相反，一口气减持61亿美元，让总持仓降到6826亿美元。 这个数字有多低？ 它比2009年金融危机时还少，也是中国 17年来最低的美债持有量。 中国已经不是第一次这么干了，从2025年3月开始，中国连续9个月减持美债，加起来卖了184亿美元。 如果把时间拉长看，自2022年4月起，中国的美债持 仓就再也没超过1万亿美元。 这种持续撤退不是临时起意，而是一场长达三年的战略性动作。 日本在11月增持了26亿美元美债，总持仓达到1.2万亿美元，稳坐美国最大海外债主的宝座。 英国更猛，单月狂买106亿美元，持仓量冲到8885亿美元。 当 别人都在买买买的时候，中国却在悄悄撤 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai is positioned as a leading international consumption center city, leveraging its unique advantages to transform inbound consumption potential into high-quality development momentum, thereby setting a benchmark for national expansion and upgrading of inbound consumption [1][3][18]. Shanghai's Advantages and Improvement Potential - The expansion of inbound consumption is crucial for Shanghai to implement national strategies and enhance its status as an international consumption center city, while also capitalizing on the spillover effects of its international financial center [3][4]. - Shanghai's inbound consumption market has experienced rapid growth, supported by its inherent advantages and untapped potential, making it feasible to establish itself as China's leading inbound consumption city [3][4]. Market Growth and Consumer Behavior - In the post-pandemic era, Shanghai's inbound consumption market is witnessing a dual drive of revenge spending and high-quality growth, becoming a significant growth engine for the city's consumption economy [4]. - In 2023 and 2024, Shanghai is expected to receive 3.6446 million and 6.7059 million inbound tourists, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 480% and 84% [4]. - International tourism foreign exchange income is projected to reach $6.167 billion and $11.092 billion in 2023 and 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 260% and 79.3% [4]. Policy and Financial Advantages - Shanghai benefits from multiple policy advantages, including a leading national level of openness, with initiatives like the 240-hour visa-free transit and the expansion of duty-free shops [5]. - As an international financial center, Shanghai hosts over 6,000 financial institutions, providing a mature service system that enhances the payment experience for foreign tourists [5][6]. Consumer Structure and Market Dynamics - The inbound consumption structure in Shanghai is evolving from traditional shopping and dining to diverse sectors such as culture, tourism, exhibitions, and healthcare, indicating a continuous upgrade in consumption levels [4][6]. - Despite impressive growth, there remains significant potential for improvement compared to top international consumption cities, particularly in attracting inbound tourists and converting visitor flow into consumption [7][9]. Recommendations for Future Development - Shanghai should strengthen the integration of finance with cultural, tourism, and commercial sectors to create a synergistic effect that promotes inbound consumption [11][12]. - Financial innovation should be leveraged to enhance service consumption, particularly in high-end sectors like education, healthcare, and wellness, to meet the evolving demands of inbound tourists [14][15]. - The city must also focus on optimizing the international consumption environment through improved financial infrastructure and services, ensuring a seamless experience for foreign visitors [15][18].

大会现场，一批重大项目完成签约，第六届"科创杯"创新创业大赛启动，2026年度"科创合伙人"行动计 划发布，多家金融机构为区内项目提供专项授信。 本报讯（记者 郭剑烽）昨天，宝山区优化营商环境暨投资促进大会在区文化馆召开。会议发布《宝山 区加快打造国际一流营商环境行动方案（2026年）》，标志着宝山营商环境改革进入以"精准滴 灌"和"价值赋能"为特征的新阶段。 本次改革旨在将企业发展中的"问题清单"转化为驱动区域发展的"动能清单"，为宝山在"十五五"期间全 力建设"上海科创中心主阵地、国际大都市主城区、全市智能制造引领区、绿色低碳样板区"提供有力支 撑。 会议指出，"十五五"时期是宝山转型发展的关键跃升期。改革坚持"企业是主角、需求是导向"，系统梳 理企业在创新转化、出海合规、要素保障等方面的迫切需求，并将其转化为改革举措。 针对科创企业成果转化难题，宝山将构建"概念验证中心—中试加速平台—高质量孵化器"一体化承接网 络，常态化发布"宝山机会清单"。去年入选市级高质量孵化器的埃米三江新材料产业创新中心，已通过 建设概念验证中心等平台，着力打通新材料领域转化瓶颈。 为应对外向型企业出海挑战，宝山实施"四个一"工 ...