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江西铜业20250328
2025-03-31 02:41
江西铜业 20250328 摘要 Q&A 江西铜业 2024 年的财务表现如何? 江西铜业 2024 年实现惠民净利润 69.69 亿元,同比增长 7%。其中,第四季度 实现净利润 19.78 亿元,同比增长 27%,环比增长 45%。扣非归母净利润同比增 长 88%。 • 江西铜业 2024 年一级铜产量同比增长 9.28%至 222.9 万吨,黄金产量增长 4.99%至 118.2 吨,但白银因恒邦事故减产。硫酸和铜加工产品分别增长 1.4%和 4.21%。自产铜矿产量略降 1.14%至 19.97 万吨。 • 上饶铜箔项目一期投产约 3 万吨,未达满产,二期取消,最终产能预计 5 万吨。哈萨克斯坦钨矿项目已试生产,四季度产 2000 吨,2025 年计划产 7,000 吨。墨西哥选矿项目预计 2025 年中期或三季度投产,目标年产 5 万 吨金属量。 • 江西铜业投资 2.5 亿美元参与第一长岛竞争,获得董事席位,加强资源端 合作。阿富汗项目有望进一步合作,并增持数字化黄金股份,参与厄瓜多 尔矿山开发建设。 • 受当地环境影响,墨西哥选矿项目推迟至 2025 年中期或三季度投产,目标 年产 5 万吨阴极 ...
铜价狂飙!什么原因?后市如何走?
证券时报· 2025-03-27 14:40
铜价接连上涨沪铜今天小幅回落 近期,沪铜期货主力合约整体经历了一轮明显的升势,并于3月26日创出年内新高。3月27日,国内沪铜期货有所调整主力合约下跌1.03%,报81560元/吨,但 年内累计涨幅仍超过10%。 铜价近期凌厉的涨势引起市场广泛关注。 LME铜期货也有类似的表现,COMEX铜期货的涨势则更为凌厉。行情数据显示,截至当地时间3月26日,LME铜期货主力合约年内累计涨幅也超过10%,而 COMEX铜期货主力合约3月以来累计涨幅约15%,年内累计涨幅则已达到约三成,价格已于近期创出历史新高。 对于近期铜价总体上涨的原因,中信期货研究所有色与新材料组资深研究员郑非凡在接受证券时报记者采访时认为,近期铜价强势上涨受到了供应端紧张、 需求端改善和政策扰动三个方面的强力推动。从供应端来看,全球铜矿供给仍然紧张,供应扰动频发,例如:3月25日嘉能可旗下的智利阿尔托诺特 (Altonorte)冶炼厂因熔炉故障停产,产能约34.9万吨,占据了不小的市场份额。而此次停产正值特朗普在全球范围内抢先征收潜在关税之际,其减产预计 会加剧全球精炼铜市场的供需紧张。同时,铜矿现货加工费(TC)持续下滑,目前已经降至负20美元 ...
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-2025-03-26
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-03-26 13:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is about to impose copper and reciprocal tariffs, which will lead to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. However, the impact on different metals varies. For example, the market for copper will quickly adjust the price difference, and the upward trend of copper prices may be near the end [2]. - The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Although the number of alumina plant overhauls is increasing, the impact on monthly production is limited. There is a possibility of a marginal decline in alumina production capacity from April to May [5][8]. - The aluminum market is supported by strong domestic demand. Despite the expected tariff increase in the US, LME aluminum shows a narrow - range sideways movement. Domestic aluminum processing enterprises'开工 rate is rising, and the demand for aluminum profiles is expected to be boosted [14][17][18]. - The zinc market is in a state of range - bound oscillation. Although there is an expectation of a large increase in zinc ingot supply, the current inventory is relatively low, and domestic consumption is expected to be boosted by policies [21][23]. - The lead market is affected by factors such as high prices of waste batteries and changes in supply and demand. The price of lead is running at a high level, but the profit of secondary lead smelters is shrinking, and there is a certain willingness to reduce production [26][28]. - The nickel market is expected to be strong in the short - term. The price of nickel ore is expected to be firm due to concerns about policies and production shortages. However, in the medium - term, high prices may stimulate over - supply [31][32]. - The stainless - steel market is affected by raw material prices and demand. The price of NPI is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is still tight, but the upward space is gradually narrowing [38][39]. - The tin market is in a state of high - level wide - range oscillation. The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure to some extent in the future [44][48]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to decline. The rumor of joint production cuts by industrial silicon manufacturers is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand [50][54]. - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile. Although there is information about production cuts, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations [56][58]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to decline. The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [63][64]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2504 contract closed at 81,980 yuan, up 0.4%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index increased by 13,455 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The US may impose copper tariffs soon, and Glencore has suspended copper shipments from its Chilean smelter [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US copper tariff will lead to a price adjustment in the market, and the upward trend of copper prices may end. Trend - following long positions should all be liquidated [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions for single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [2]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2504 contract rose 34 yuan/ton to 3,090 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the weighted index decreased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [4]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina plants are undergoing overhauls, and the inventory of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased [5][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in overhauls has limited impact on monthly production. The price of alumina is expected to be volatile before substantial production cuts [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short when the price rebounds after substantial production cuts; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [9][11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2504 contract closed at 20,700 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [13]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main markets decreased, and a green - power aluminum project in Inner Mongolia is under construction. The carbon - emission trading market is expanding, and the US is considering tariff strategies [14][15]. - **Trading Logic**: The overseas macro - environment is volatile, but domestic demand is strong, which supports the price of aluminum [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of aluminum is expected to be in a high - level range - bound state in the short - term; wait and see for options trading [19]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2505 contract rose 0.06% to 24,155 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot market trading sentiment in Shanghai was not high [20]. - **Related Information**: The global zinc market is in a state of supply shortage, and some mining projects are expected to be put into production [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although there is an expectation of a large increase in supply, the current low inventory and domestic policies may support consumption, and the price is in a range - bound state [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may be in a wide - range oscillation in the short - term and bearish in the long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [24]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2505 contract rose 0.48% to 17,615 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot market trading was light [25]. - **Related Information**: The global lead market shows a change in supply and demand, and the domestic electric bicycle replacement policy has an impact on consumption [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of waste batteries leads to a reduction in the profit of secondary lead smelters, but domestic consumption is expected to be boosted [28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of lead is running at a high level due to market sentiment; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [29]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract 2505 rose 700 to 129,670 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot price of nickel showed different trends [30]. - **Related Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives of cobalt, spodumene, and nickel. The production of an MHP project in Indonesia is affected by floods [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of nickel is expected to be strong in the short - term due to factors such as raw material shortages, but there is limited upward space in the medium - term [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds [33]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract rose 50 to 13,410 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price of stainless steel is within a certain range [35]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel plant has started producing 304 materials, and India is considering a safeguard measure tariff on steel imports [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of raw materials is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is tight, but the upward space is limited [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the bottom of the price is rising, but the upward space is also limited; wait and see for arbitrage trading [40][41]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2504 contract closed at 277,650 yuan/ton, up 3460 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price of tin rose [43]. - **Related Information**: The production of a tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has stopped, and Wa State has issued a document on the resumption of tin mining [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure in the future, and the price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of tin is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the risk of price decline; wait and see for options trading [49]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 9780 yuan/ton, down 1.31%. The spot price is stable [50]. - **Related Information**: A project of an organic silicon company has been put into production [51]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The rumor of joint production cuts is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand, and the price may decline [54]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may decline after the false rumor of production cuts; no strategy for options and arbitrage trading [55]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures price closed at 43,640 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The spot price is within a certain range [56]. - **Related Information**: Henan Province has launched a new batch of source - network - load - storage integration projects [57]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The overall supply pressure of polysilicon is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations, and the price may be volatile [58]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long at low prices; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct positive arbitrage for PS2506 and PS2511 contracts and reverse arbitrage for PS2511 and PS2512 contracts [59][61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 520 to 74,480 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price is stable [62]. - **Important Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives, and some lithium - related projects are under construction [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage trading; consider holding 2505 put ratio options [65][67].
研客专栏 | 两年铜牛表现与逻辑浅析
对冲研投· 2025-03-20 11:51
以下文章来源于CFC金属研究 ,作者张维鑫 CFC金属研究 . 本平台由金融业内人士对宏观数据、行业事件,进行专业的解读和评论,分享专业的价值观点,提出专业的投资策略,力争为普通投资者、产业人士打造 专业的投资交流平台,并无偿提供分析与研究服务。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 张维鑫 来源 | CFC金属研究 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要 我们站在长期看好铜价的基础上(《节后铜价反弹的一点思考》),从周线视角浅析2025年来的铜价的逻辑,最后我们从指标层面对 比了下这两年铜牛的异同,雷同的剧本背后是镜像相反的宏观环境。 | | | 交易理想国星球杜群特供:期货&全球宏观交易全流程辅助工具&报告 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 工具表格或报告 | 目昭 | 使用难度 | 使用说明 | 是否需连接外部数据源 | | 研究阶段 | 《中国期货市场品种波动属性》 | 协助用户观察期货各品种不同频度下的波动 数据 易机会 | 较易 | 待上新 | KD | | | 《中国宏观价值相对套利》 | 协助用户观察宏观视角下各套利对品种的交 | 进阶 | 待上新 ...
研客专栏 | 铜价叠buff上涨,“胀”而后“滞”
对冲研投· 2025-03-19 11:57
以下文章来源于国投期货研究院 ,作者肖静 国投期货研究院 . 国投期货研究院团队倾力打造,专注热门期货品种分析。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 肖静 来源 | 国投期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 01 美国关税开始提振远期美伦价差 3月初美国政府对钢铁和铝进行了25%的行业关税加征,同时特朗普在他的第一次国会发言中表示,也要对铜加征25%的关税。自他上任以 来,美伦铜价差来回扩至1000美元以上,本周市场已在交易更高的对铜加征关税幅度。目前,美国已将铜放入232调查序列,虽然调查耗 时较长,征税正式实现也可能等到四季度。不过物流流向与海外龙头投行已将套利交易的轮廓清晰化,高盛认为未来美伦价差溢价仍有打 开空间,当下只反映了8-9%,倘若兑现25%高税额,扣除实货成本后,美伦价差目标空间将要打开到1700美元/吨,并将价差套利交易转 向偏远月合约。市场已经看到美盘铜加权价格已经突破5美元/磅,部分美盘铜远月合约已经创出历史新高。 未来物流变动上,除了符合美盘铜交割规格的品牌铜注册成仓单反映到COMEX库存数据以外,还可能有一部分非期货仓单注册铜直接流 入美国现货市场。高盛预计三季度受进 ...
云南铜业:拟3亿元设立控股子公司 优化铜冶炼产业布局
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-03-13 10:11
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Yunnan Copper Industry (000878) is forming a joint venture with Liangshan Industrial Investment Development Group to optimize its copper smelting industry layout in Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province [1] - The registered capital of the joint venture company is 500 million yuan, with Yunnan Copper contributing 300 million yuan for a 60% stake, while Liangshan Industrial Investment contributes 200 million yuan for a 40% stake [1] - This investment will further promote the establishment of a complete copper mining, selection, and smelting industrial chain locally, expanding sales markets in regions such as Chengdu-Chongqing, and enhancing the overall competitiveness of the company [1]